Flip Saunders Press Conference 12/2/11

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Are the above stats based on this lineup playing together for a mere 7 minutes? If so, that's waaaayyyy too small of a sample to tell us anything. Far as we know, it may have been 7 minutes during garbage time.

Why were you mum when the post below preceded those stats I responded with, DCZ?

The Wizards did play Seraphin and McGee together last season. They got outscored by 15 points in 18 minutes.

My post was merely a response to Nivek, DCZ. He wanted to show I didn't have a clue saying Seraphin and McGee could be effective together. He used 18 minutes to try to make me look clueless or in error. I came back with "maybe I do have a clue". You, as you usually do, questioned my logic, DCZ.

Bottom line: I have said I would like to see Seraphin play some with McGee. I would like to see Flip not project Blatche as the only hope at PF. I think Seraphin's minutes should not just push Mcgee, but they should push Blatche as well.

Any questions at all?

[DCZards]

You're right, ccj, I should have been just as critical of nivek using 18 minutes to make his point. That was also waaayyy too small of a sample. My bad.

As far as "questioning your logic", ccj, I only question it when I find it questionable. Most of your posts I don't have any response to, but I often find your McGee vs. Flip logic myopic.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

No worries, DCZ. I go overboard on Flip most of the time.

Also, continue to question what you find questionable. To me, that's what it's all about. Everybody's opinion is just as rightfully theirs and mine is mine. No matter what, they are just opinions.

[tontoz]

On what McGee needs to do to take the next step: "From a basketball standpoint, we need to get him to be a better defensive rebounder.

+1

McGee's year end numbers weren't bad on the defensive glass but he was very inconsistent during the season. He would be a beast one day and a wimp the next.

All of the bigs need to do better on the defensive glass. Nobody on the team ranks top 20 in defensive rebounding for their position.

[tontoz]

As far as McGee dribbling it isn't just about his coast to coast forays. I remember many times when he would be dribbling up the court ignoring Wall running right beside him. That should never happen. Wall is one of the most dangerous players in the league on the break. When McGee gets a defensive rebound the first thing he should do is look for Wall.

[dobrojim]

These statements are okay, but are secondary in importance to the real issues. Those real issues: the team needs to shoot better (league's 2nd worst efg last season), and it needs to lower opposing shooting percentages (7th worst defensive efg).

Yes, they turn the ball over too much. But, their turnover percentage (8th worst) was .139, which was only slightly worse than average (.134), and not much off the league leader in taking care of the ball (.123). With such a small spread in turnovers per possession, there's not much of an edge to be gained by taking better care of the ball. I mean, yeah -- do it. But the real issue is shooting.

On defensive rebounding -- yes, the Wizards sucked (2nd worst last season). But, in terms of importance, opponent shooting is WAY more important. First make 'em miss, then worry about getting the ball. Again, they do need to get better on the defensive glass. There's just more important stuff to get better at first.

in a nutshell you're pointing out that Flip ignored some basics here

1. working hard/executing to get high quality shots for yourself

2. working hard/defensively executing to deny your opp high quality shots

do those 2 things and the odds will be in your favor to win your share of games

pretty simple

[hands11]

Nivek, explain this to me:

http://www.82games.com/1011/10WAS14.HTM

Lineup 15
Wall, Jeffers, Martin, Seraphin, McGee

+10 in 7 minutes

+5 FTA

eFG% .800 eFGA .353 (By FAR the best lineup you will see of any 5-man Martin unit)

Win 100%

Without getting caught up in saving face, if you look at the lineup of Wall with great rebounder/hustler in Jeffers, and with a guy who hit big shots from summer league throughout, Martin; that's a really good perimeter attack. I like guys like Martin and Jeffers who have played all over and don't back down. They're modern-day Mario Elie type players. With Wall you have the ultimate athlete, distributor, and potentially explosive scorer but he's young. Put two TOUGH dudes next to him and he settles down IMO. With McGee and Seraphin with that junk lineup, the game becomes simplified to whose athletes are better.

I like lineup 15. (Apparently, McGee/Seraphin played together and stunk in lineup 5 above, which I don't remember.)

Last comment: Cartier Martin seems to have really had a good season last year. Ironic he's odd-man out.

You must have those line up wrong. It must have been

Wall, Jeffers, Martin, McGee, Seraphin

because it has been well document on this board that Seraphin can not ever play PF.

[Nivek]

Uhh, I wasn't trying to make anyone look like they don't have a clue. And I think I'm at least a little familiar with the concept of small sample size. Which, I sorta thought was common knowledge 'round these parts, but perhaps not. Maybe I need to write out some kind of codicil to my stat-based posts that details every possible permutation of how that one number doesn't necessarily cover every aspect of every possibility that could ever be in existence, much less every part of my thinking on a subject.

There was discussion of the idea of playing Seraphin and McGee together. I thought it was kinda interesting to note that they did play together for a few minutes last season. I thought the results were kinda interesting too. Pretty awful thing for me to post. Sorry 'bout that.

[tontoz]

On defensive rebounding -- yes, the Wizards sucked (2nd worst last season). But, in terms of importance, opponent shooting is WAY more important.

A big factor in opponent shooting percentages is all the easy putbacks they get due to our weak defensive rebounding.

[Nivek]

On defensive rebounding -- yes, the Wizards sucked (2nd worst last season). But, in terms of importance, opponent shooting is WAY more important.

A big factor in opponent shooting percentages is all the easy putbacks they get due to our weak defensive rebounding.

Interesting theory. You got me looking for some numbers to see if it's accurate. I'll have to email one of my stat guys and see if they have this number precisely. In the meantime, here are some team-level numbers regarding the Wiz and opposing shooting percentages:

At the Rim
- 9th most opponent FGA at the rim -- 30.7% of opponent FGA (average is 29.7%)
- 2nd worst opponent FG% at rim -- 69.1%; (avg. is 64.1%)

Presumably, a fair number of putbacks would come from this range. But, it also includes dribble penetrations, at least some post-ups, breakaways...

3-9 Feet
- middle of the pack in attempts
- 2nd best defensive FG% from this range -- league-wide, only about 14% of FGA come from this range

10-15 Feet
- 7th fewest opponent FGA from this range
- 7th worst dFG%

Thought unrelated to the role of offensive rebounding in opponent shooting percentages: It's actually a bad sign to give up so few shots in this mid-range. You want opponents taking mid-range jumpers -- you want to take away "at the rim" and 3pt attempts.

16-23 Feet
- at the league average in attempts
- 5th best defensive FG%

Threes
- league average in attempts
- 5th worst defensive 3FG%

For last season, there was a very weak negative correlation (-0.49) between opponent "at rim" FGA and defensive rebounding. In other words, there was a very slight tendency for good defensive rebounding teams to allow fewer at-rim FGA. The at-rim FG% correlation was weaker (-0.36). There were slightly stronger positive correlations between mid-range jumpers and long twos and good defensive rebounding.

Interestingly, there was a nearly identical correlation (-0.47) between defensive rebounding percentage and opponent 3pt FG%. Bad defensive rebounding teams give up a higher 3pt percentage?

Of course, it's tough to say which way causation runs. I'll ping my guys and see if someone comes back with some stats on putback percentages.

[tontoz]

On defensive rebounding -- yes, the Wizards sucked (2nd worst last season). But, in terms of importance, opponent shooting is WAY more important.

A big factor in opponent shooting percentages is all the easy putbacks they get due to our weak defensive rebounding.

Interesting theory. You got me looking for some numbers to see if it's accurate. I'll have to email one of my stat guys and see if they have this number precisely. In the meantime, here are some team-level numbers regarding the Wiz and opposing shooting percentages:

At the Rim
- 9th most opponent FGA at the rim -- 30.7% of opponent FGA (average is 29.7%)
- 2nd worst opponent FG% at rim -- 69.1%; (avg. is 64.1%)

Presumably, a fair number of putbacks would come from this range. But, it also includes dribble penetrations, at least some post-ups, breakaways...

Ugh. Good teams dont allow all those easy baskets. What makes it worse is the size and athleticism of the players on the front line. This is not an undersized team.

I have never seen a site that kept up with 2nd chance point % but i am sure teams keep an abundance of stats that never make it to the public. Thanks for checking.

In my view being 29th in defensive rebounding rate and 29th in opponent FG% at the rim would seem to go hand in hand but what do i know..... well i know that both suck.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Nivek, explain this to me:

http://www.82games.com/1011/10WAS14.HTM

Lineup 15
Wall, Jeffers, Martin, Seraphin, McGee

+10 in 7 minutes

+5 FTA

eFG% .800 eFGA .353 (By FAR the best lineup you will see of any 5-man Martin unit)

Win 100%

Without getting caught up in saving face, if you look at the lineup of Wall with great rebounder/hustler in Jeffers, and with a guy who hit big shots from summer league throughout, Martin; that's a really good perimeter attack. I like guys like Martin and Jeffers who have played all over and don't back down. They're modern-day Mario Elie type players. With Wall you have the ultimate athlete, distributor, and potentially explosive scorer but he's young. Put two TOUGH dudes next to him and he settles down IMO. With McGee and Seraphin with that junk lineup, the game becomes simplified to whose athletes are better.

I like lineup 15. (Apparently, McGee/Seraphin played together and stunk in lineup 5 above, which I don't remember.)

Last comment: Cartier Martin seems to have really had a good season last year. Ironic he's odd-man out.

You must have those line up wrong. It must have been

Wall, Jeffers, Martin, McGee, Seraphin

because it has been well document on this board that Seraphin can not ever play PF.

You're right. hands, I got the order wrong. Seraphin-PF and McGee-C is how it is listed in lineup 15.

IMO McGee is more the PF in that lineup next to Kevin. Kevin defends C because he can hold position. He also posts up and backs opponents down and finishes off a dribble with a dunk better than McGee. Kevin is shorter, but next to McGee I see him as a C. Javale is long and can start outside the key and finish over people with authority. I know he's tall but in my mind he's a PF/C and so is Kevin.

Regardless, the two played very effectively together at least those very few minutes.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Uhh, I wasn't trying to make anyone look like they don't have a clue. And I think I'm at least a little familiar with the concept of small sample size. Which, I sorta thought was common knowledge 'round these parts, but perhaps not. Maybe I need to write out some kind of codicil to my stat-based posts that details every possible permutation of how that one number doesn't necessarily cover every aspect of every possibility that could ever be in existence, much less every part of my thinking on a subject.

There was discussion of the idea of playing Seraphin and McGee together. I thought it was kinda interesting to note that they did play together for a few minutes last season. I thought the results were kinda interesting too. Pretty awful thing for me to post. Sorry 'bout that.

I was very defensive. No worries, and the post wasn't awful. I assumed your motives and owe you the apology, Nivek. You're bigger than that and I should have known that.

My only issue was just me being me. I think Javale and Kevin can definitely play together. I wish coaches would scrap systems if personnel might be better suited to play different styles. This isn't slamming just Flip. I loved EJ as coach. That said, he really missed out not playing Haywood in his offense. Brendan was a great defender but EJ didn't like him at C for what he couldn't do in EJ's system. Jordan actually played Javale McGee as a rookie ahead of Haywood some minutes, and had a lot of faith in Javale. Before that, I couldn't stand the playoffs where Jordan barely played Haywood against Cleveland. Just bad coaching and sticking with a system and guys like Songaila and Ruffin at C.

Kevin and Javale have size with athleticism and raw aggression. Blatche has some moves and skills, but Flip is missing something IMO. Even Booker IMO is a better PF option than Blatche many to most of the time because Booker is a thunderous dunker and an energetic defender.

Big rant. Sorry. I like McGee with Seraphin but don't expect to see it at all this season.

[closg00]

Did Flip mention Kevin Garnett at the presser?