The Conundrum that is LeBron James

[Wannabe MEP]

"Lebron can't shoot" is much too strong a statement.

You have a point...but a couple things:

1) He shot significantly better from 10-15 ft and 16-23 ft than he has in the past. Improved shot? Fluke? More open shots because of spacing created by Wade/Bosh? Weaker defender because teams' best perimeter defender took Wade?? Not sure exactly what this means.

2) I'm hardly a Kobe fan. Kobe clearly has the better midrange game, but his percentages certainly drop further out. The defense's goal with Kobe is to keep him out and make him shoot longer, contested 2s. If Kobe was playing off-ball alongside someone like Paul or Wade, he would be hurting his team if he didn't shoot significantly better from three. I'm not sure how he would respond to that role, but he certainly has the stroke for it. (But regardless, the Lakers defensive big rotation has been the real key to their titles--a critical piece missing from the Wade-LeBron-Bosh union.)

3) LeBron was in the mid to high 40s in eFG% for each range from 3-9 ft all the way out to three pointers. That is good. But I'm not sure it's good enough. A steady diet of 45% without a very, very high rate of offensive rebounds is simply not good enough when you need to be scoring well over a point per possession.

A great offense like the 2009-2010 Suns had six guys shooting at least 59% eFG% from three. Think about the off-ball spacing contrast between that threat from deep and what LeBron gives you when Wade and Bosh run a pick-and-roll. When you have Nash and Amare shooting 71% and 67% at rim and knocking down free throws, while 60% eFG% three point shooters spot up around the perimeter, it's indefensible.

When LeBron's threat as a stretch option is under 50%, it's pretty easy for a solid defensive team with time to prepare in the playoffs (Dallas...) to figure out that they have to prevent Wade from getting to the rim at all costs, even if they leave LeBron wide open in the process. LeBron will hit some of those shots, but he'll also just catch it and hold it because he is so accustomed to creating himself, and because he really wants to get to the rim.

Now, Miami scored 112.72 per 100 possessions when LeBron was on the court during the regular season. That's very good. But their top two units only scored 102.65 and 102.86 against Dallas (Dallas' top two units scored 130.51 and 118.07 in the playoffs). Dallas figured something out. Part of it was simply that Dallas has a great defensive team. Another part of it was probably that Dallas' efficient offense prevented Miami's transition game.

But part of it is that Miami's half-court offense can be tamed.

[Wannabe MEP]

If I was running the Heat, I'd be open to trading Wade and/or Bosh. But I'd hang onto Lebron.

If I could only have one of them, I'd take LeBron. Two? Wade and Bosh.

[albert]

Considering the Miami roster now, there's an argument to be made that the easiest transition to fill these roles would be for Lebron to reinvent himself as an elite defender and let the rest fall into place.

1) Elite offensive spark - Wade
2) Elite defensive frontcourt - Haslem/Joel Anthony
3) Elite perimeter defender - Lebron
4) Solid stretch big - Bosh
5) Solid complimentary offensive spark - Mike Miller

[Doctor MJ]

Considering the Miami roster now, there's an argument to be made that the easiest transition to fill these roles would be for Lebron to reinvent himself as an elite defender and let the rest fall into place.

LeBron's already an elite defender. At this point in his career he has the stamina to do this while doing his offensive thing, so a choice need not be made.

[Wannabe MEP]

Battier going to Miami makes LeBron significantly less relevant for Miami than he was.

Shooter+Wade+Battier+Bosh+Center is on par with any lineup that includes LeBron, unless...
1) Wade doesn't stay healthy.
2) They start experimenting with LeBron at the 4. Problem with that is I'm not sure Bosh can hold down the 5.

[parapooper]

If I was running the Heat, I'd be open to trading Wade and/or Bosh. But I'd hang onto Lebron.

If I could only have one of them, I'd take LeBron. Two? Wade and Bosh.

Wade is basically 30 right now, has a 5 year contract and is already the inferior player now. And he is a lot more injury-prone than LeBron.
In 3 years LeBron will be 30 and still have most of his size/athleticism/shooting/playmaking. Wade will be 33 - how much of his speed will he still have (even assuming he stays healthy)?

[Nivek]

Los Soles -- I would not be surprised to see Miami experiment with Bosh at center. Or shoot, play Lebron there. My guess is that it would create so many problems for the opposition that it would far outweigh any concerns they'd have about the middle.

[Wannabe MEP]

Los Soles -- I would not be surprised to see Miami experiment with Bosh at center. Or shoot, play Lebron there. My guess is that it would create so many problems for the opposition that it would far outweigh any concerns they'd have about the middle.

I'd do it. I'm surprised they didn't do it more often last year. They could even go 2-3 zone with Battier, Bosh, and LeBron along the bottom.

[Nivek]

Yeah -- they ought to do it. I've never really understood the insistence on getting a Big Man. A lot of teams end up with some 7-0 stiff who can't run, can't jump, can't really do much of anything except get in the way and grab the ball when it bounces his way. Why not use a 6-10 guy who can flat out play?

Or, what Bob Knight said when he heard Portland was going to pick Sam Bowie over Michael Jordan because Portland "needed a center."

Said Knight: "Play Jordan at center."

Sometimes stuff gets over thought. Bosh would be more than good enough at center against nearly every team in the league, and NO ONE has people to truly contend with someone like Dwight Howard.

[Wannabe MEP]

Sometimes stuff gets over thought. Bosh would be more than good enough at center against nearly every team in the league, and NO ONE has people to truly contend with someone like Dwight Howard.

Haha, exactly. Howard isn't really that big of an offensive threat 'cause the man has no moves. There aren't any centers in the league with dominant post moves.

I still love this: the top offensive RAPM players by position. None of them are centers. A great defensive big is great not because he can stop other centers, but because he can defend the pick-and-roll and help stop penetration from the perimeter.

PGs: 11
8.2 Steve Nash
5.1 Chris Paul
4.6 Baron Davis
4.1 Chauncey Billups
3.5 Deron Williams
2.7 Russell Westbrook
2.7 Devin Harris
2.5 Ty Lawson
2.5 Andre Miller
2.5 Mike Conley
2.4 Stephen Curry

SGs: 10 (many who function as facilitator)
6.4 Dwyane Wade
5.3 Manu Ginobili
4.9 Kobe Bryant
3.3 Jamal Crawford
3.2 Ray Allen
3.0 Jason Terry
3.0 Kevin Martin
2.9 J.R. Smith
2.8 Jason Richardson
2.7 Joe Johnson

Hybrid forwards: 9
5.9 Dirk Nowitzki
5.3 LeBron James
3.5 Kevin Durant
3.2 Carlos Boozer
3.0 Carmelo Anthony
2.8 Antawn Jamison
2.8 David Lee
2.6 Paul Pierce
2.6 Danny Granger

Centers: 0

[Rerisen]

By the numbers, LeBron should be able to clearly be the elite offensive spark for his team. Heck, if Pierce and Allen can be, why not James?

I think LeBron needs to completely take over the alpha role from Wade, contrary to some belief. I think Wade gives you more in an off ball role (think 08 Team USA) than LeBron does.

If Wade and Bosh had come to Cleveland it would all make a lot more sense. Wade is maybe 85, 90% of the player LeBron is, but since he orchestrated the superfriends, and invited them to his turf, he is punching above his weight in vying for the team leadership / #1 option role.

[BoutPractice]

I don't think you can make a list of predetermined requirements for a championship team. It seems pretty arbitrary, and ignores the way outcomes are shaped by random events.

But you can determine whether a player would help your team get closer to a championship. It would require a lot of denial to say LeBron isn't such a player.

Just because LeBron didn't win a championship last year doesn't mean that LeBron winning a championship is a mathematical impossibility due to LeBron's essential characteristics.
You could've made the same argument about Nowitzki in 2007, 2008, or 2009 or 2010. You would've said "stretch bigs don't win championship". Now that Nowitzki has won, you can say "championship teams need stretch bigs" and rewrite history as if those other championship teams from the past won because of stretch bigs (thankfully Robert Horry exists to help you make that argument, even when he's the 7th or 8th player in the rotation).
What you're essentially saying appears to be "you can't win championships with a jack of all trades as one of your main players". But even using what we already know, what about Bird, Magic, Pippen? That's 14 championships with a jack of all trades as either the first or second option.

Most importantly, the Heat very well could've won the title last year had a few shots gone in or out. It was one of the closest series in recent memory (the way each game plays out is more important than the number of games). And I'm not saying that as a Heat or LeBron fan. I was rooting for the Mavs, so you would expect me to be biased against them. Had the Heat won, this whole argument would be negated from the start.

[Doctor MJ]

By the numbers, LeBron should be able to clearly be the elite offensive spark for his team. Heck, if Pierce and Allen can be, why not James?

I think LeBron needs to completely take over the alpha role from Wade, contrary to some belief. I think Wade gives you more in an off ball role (think 08 Team USA) than LeBron does.

If Wade and Bosh had come to Cleveland it would all make a lot more sense. Wade is maybe 85, 90% of the player LeBron is, but since he orchestrated the superfriends, and invited them to his turf, he is punching above his weight in vying for the team leadership / #1 option role.

First thing that comes to mind is that it's dangerous to look at Pierce & Allen really doing something James fails at. The Boston Big 3's offense has never been the equal of what Miami's was last year. What we're talking about truly is James & co needing to do something greater to satisfy our (justified) expectations.

That said clearly the Boston Big 3 blended together better, and it would make sense to try to emulate that. What's tough though is saying that "Wade should do more off ball" a la Allen is that Wade is FAR better than Allen on ball, and will never hold a candle to Allen as a shooter. So yes, Miami's offense is already better than Boston's, and it can & will get better still, but there's no way either James or Wade can ever blend like Allen did on offense because he's flat out superior at shooting.

Then of course there's the matter that the #1 reason the Boston Big 3 worked was Garnett's astounding versatilty and ability to still have superstar impact even when he reduces his offensive role to that of a role player. I find it quite amusing that Boston's success almost certainly helped make the Heatles happen, without the Heatles realizing that they are actually far worse fits for each other than the Boston Big 3 were.

[Rerisen]

Then of course there's the matter that the #1 reason the Boston Big 3 worked was Garnett's astounding versatilty and ability to still have superstar impact even when he reduces his offensive role to that of a role player. I find it quite amusing that Boston's success almost certainly helped make the Heatles happen, without the Heatles realizing that they are actually far worse fits for each other than the Boston Big 3 were.

They will never blend as well as Boston no. But is the benchmark really meeting the super high expectations for them, or just doing enough to win a title? If you are the trio, or their fans, obviously just needs to be the latter.

Creating a clear #1 and #2 between LeBron and Wade is surely going to under-utilize one of them, I'm not sure how it can be avoided though. It seemed last year they tried to share the role and that created more confusion and uncertainty in the ultimate test of the Finals. Almost as if once Wade took over, LeBron didn't want to 'mess it up' or step on his toes by being aggressive.

And you have Wade the obvious guy coming off of his prime, I would just make the transition now, since it's going to be inevitable anyway.

[Wannabe MEP]

Just because LeBron didn't win a championship last year doesn't mean that LeBron winning a championship is a mathematical impossibility due to LeBron's essential characteristics.

You would have a point...except that no one made that argument. Which means you have absolutely no point.

I don't think you can make a list of predetermined requirements for a championship team.

Neither do I. Description of trends. Recognition of typical roles. Interesting discussion point, don't you think?

ignores the way outcomes are shaped by random events.

"Random events"? We're talking about a player's role on a team and how pieces fit together to make the best possible team. The fact that "random events" might occur is relevant for what reason? If the whole "mathematical impossibility" would have actually been a part of this discussion, then "random events" might factor in. Since they don't...you once again have absolutely no point.

But you can determine whether a player would help your team get closer to a championship. It would require a lot of denial to say LeBron isn't such a player.

Well, it depends on the team. That's what the discussion is about. Care to join, instead of trying so desperately to prove that you're belligerently ignorant?

What you're essentially saying appears to be "you can't win championships with a jack of all trades as one of your main players".

Really?!? That's what you think I'm saying?? Did you read any of this thread besides the first post?

You would've said "stretch bigs don't win championship". Now that Nowitzki has won, you can say "championship teams need stretch bigs" and rewrite history as if those other championship teams from the past won because of stretch bigs (thankfully Robert Horry exists to help you make that argument, even when he's the 7th or 8th player in the rotation).

Wow. What incredibly arrogant assumptions. The value of Robert Horry and stretch bigs is a very interesting topic, and I absolutely think it warrants further discussion. I happen to think stretch bigs are deeply underrated, especially since the addition of the 3-point line and the gradual evolution of the game because of that. Championship history agrees with me. People think that Horry's 7 titles are a fluke; I don't. This is something that we could have a reasonable discussion/debate about. I'd prefer to wait and have that discussion after you've grown up at least a couple years.

Most importantly, the Heat very well could've won the title last year had a few shots gone in or out.

Dallas's best, most-used unit outscored Miami 154-110. They won the last two games of the series by 9 and 10 points, including the clincher in Miami. I think they had figured them out; replay that series, I think Dallas wins it again and again and again. But hey, I guess we'll never know.

Had the Heat won, this whole argument would be negated from the start.

Not really. If LeBron had torn his ACL Miami still could have won the championship: Wade plus Bosh would still be arguably the best 1-2 combo in the league. Part of the argument is simply that LeBron is nowhere near as valuable on the Heat. If they had lost in the first round of the playoffs or won the finals, I still would think that was the case based on the data and based on watching them play.

[Wannabe MEP]

Then of course there's the matter that the #1 reason the Boston Big 3 worked was Garnett's astounding versatilty and ability to still have superstar impact even when he reduces his offensive role to that of a role player. I find it quite amusing that Boston's success almost certainly helped make the Heatles happen, without the Heatles realizing that they are actually far worse fits for each other than the Boston Big 3 were.

[BoutPractice]

LosSoles > Nice rebuttal. Wasn't trying to come off as belligerent, I always distinguish the person and the argument.

I'm making a philosophical/logical point to create that "interesting discussion" you're talking about, hence why I'm making the argument as bare bones as possible. You do tend to lose subtlety in the process, I'll admit. I don't have much to contribute to the smaller debate of the last few pages because my core point is about the idea of "championship pieces" in general.

My theory is that looking at "trends" is not as relevant as it may seem due to 1/ the induction problem 2/ the amount of subjective, interpretative thinking required to make sense of them.
It leads me to conclude that it is possible that Miami could be a prime example of a well assembled championship team, despite their relative failure last year, without dramatically changing the way they played in 2010-2011 in terms of "roles". For instance, they could start running better sets on offense that take full advantage of the "triple threat" and create dilemmas for the defense.

[Doctor MJ]

They will never blend as well as Boston no. But is the benchmark really meeting the super high expectations for them, or just doing enough to win a title? If you are the trio, or their fans, obviously just needs to be the latter.

Creating a clear #1 and #2 between LeBron and Wade is surely going to under-utilize one of them, I'm not sure how it can be avoided though. It seemed last year they tried to share the role and that created more confusion and uncertainty in the ultimate test of the Finals. Almost as if once Wade took over, LeBron didn't want to 'mess it up' or step on his toes by being aggressive.

And you have Wade the obvious guy coming off of his prime, I would just make the transition now, since it's going to be inevitable anyway.

I think the standard needs to be that the team not only wins a title but that they become a truly dominant team. If this team spends a half dozen years together and only managed to win a title or two, that is without question a disappointment. This wasn't a "ring or bust" team, it was "dynasty or bust".

Now though, if they can reach dynasty levels without really ever blending as well as my aesthetics would like I'm sure they'll be fine with that, and I won't really hold it against them.

Re: stepping on toes. Yes, I think that's exactly what happened. LeBron didn't move toward more of a pass first facilitator, he just got the hell out of the way, and that was a problem when Wade cooled off for a variety of reasons. LeBron needs to change his approach.

[Wannabe MEP]

I think the standard needs to be that the team not only wins a title but that they become a truly dominant team. If this team spends a half dozen years together and only managed to win a title or two, that is without question a disappointment. This wasn't a "ring or bust" team, it was "dynasty or bust".

LeBron didn't move toward more of a pass first facilitator, he just got the hell out of the way, and that was a problem when Wade cooled off for a variety of reasons. LeBron needs to change his approach.

It was also a problem just for the simple fact that he's not a good enough floor-spacing off-ball player. If they aren't taking advantage of his athleticism, it's not just that he's being under-utilized--he's actually slightly negative. This is masked somewhat because he is a good defensive player and incredibly valuable in transition, but this is really a significant blow to Miami's halfcourt offense.

Dallas's best unit really did blow them out. Dallas was good enough offensively to 1) Score, and 2) Not turn it over, thereby slowing Miami's ridiculous transition game. Then they were good enough defensively to recognize Miami's offensive weaknesses.

Miami's most used unit scored only 102.65 per 100 possessions against Dallas after scoring 121.74 during the regular season.
Dallas's most used unit scored 130.51 per 100 possessions against Miami after scoring 119.04 during the regular season.

[Chicago76]

^If anything, the personnel moves by Miami to bring this together have given everyone a lab to play with regarding teammate effects that we haven't had had the statistics and game tracking available to observe at this level...ever.

Closest thing I can think of would be Erving-McGinnis and those Sixers.

Those numbers you posted and the facts we can glean from this cut a bit against the traditional wisdom, a lot of it supported by the stats community even 5 or 6 years ago.

Looking at the DAL and MIA efficiency #s, two quick areas:

1-Historically, we've placed a premium on versatility, AKA, it's better to be able to do a lot of things well vs. one or two things extremely well.

We hear the words ball dominant uttered on these forums a lot, but your first paragraph sums up the problem very well. Offensive versatility works only if you can have value as an player without the ball in your hands. If you can't facilitate quickly/efficiently, if you can't drag a defender 26 feet away from the basket out of respect for your shooting, if you can't catch and shoot from distance to keep defensive rotations honest, if you can't post up and command at least a second shadow defender, or if you can't rebound offensively like a complete fiend, then like you said, you're going to have a negative impact on the offense when the ball is not in your hands. And if no one else can perform these types of functions to free up space on your team at a respectable level, then your halfcourt game can't be reliably efficient. Exactly what happened to MIA v. DAL.

2-Defense is underrated. I think interior D is still underrated, but the pendulum has swung maybe a bit too far on perimeter D. MIA's D bears this out. Much better perimeter D than post D on the team. A high post presence with decent distribution and shooters will pretty much neutralize good or even great perimeter D, like DAL did v. MIA offensively.