Kyle Drabek- still a premium pitcher. What went wrong

[WpgPage]

I'm not sure Drabek would be better suited to start the season but I think getting Drabek to be a solid pitcher ether to use in the rotation or to trade is worth more then a few extra wins in a building season. Henderson if going to need an effective slider or hes going to fail as a starter. I would rather him go down to AA and throw 20% sliders rather than doing it at the majors and hurting his confidence.

As for Drabek he never had trouble throwing strikes in the minors so to all of a sudden have problems with it in the majors is strange. I agree that he was over rated I always saw him as a #3 pitcher on a good team not the future ACE some believed him to be. He still needs to be given another shot to improve development isnt always linear sometimes there are bumps on the road. If the cost of seeing if Drabek can improve is sending Alverez to AA then that should be an easy call I think.

[flatjacket1]

I'm not sure Drabek would be better suited to start the season but I think getting Drabek to be a solid pitcher ether to use in the rotation or to trade is worth more then a few extra wins in a building season. Henderson if going to need an effective slider or hes going to fail as a starter. I would rather him go down to AA and throw 20% sliders rather than doing it at the majors and hurting his confidence.

Okay, that's crazy. Do all pitchers who don't throw a slider fail? Where is your source for this, I'm interested. He doesn't use deception to "fool" batters, he overpowers them. He threw 9.9% sliders this year in the MLB, and his best pitch is his changeup.

As for Drabek he never had trouble throwing strikes in the minors so to all of a sudden have problems with it in the majors is strange. I agree that he was over rated I always saw him as a #3 pitcher on a good team not the future ACE some believed him to be. He still needs to be given another shot to improve development isnt always linear sometimes there are bumps on the road. If the cost of seeing if Drabek can improve is sending Alverez to AA then that should be an easy call I think.

He always had problems with walks. He walked 3.7 batters/9 innings in his minor league career, and 4.9/9 innings last year. I can't believe a pitcher whose successful at the major league level should be sent down while a pitcher who can't handle AAA should be given a starting gig.

Henderson with 2 pitches beats Kyle with like 4. What does that prove?

[Weems]

Just a theory, but maybe his fastball overpowers weaker hitters in the minors, but can't overpower better hitters with better approaches and better scouting resources in the majors. It's 94 mph with nice movement, but I've never seen control from it. Even in his 17 IP in 2010 where he had a low walk rate, his first pitch strike percentage was 39.1% and his pitches in zone percentage was 31.4%. I think zone% (that last stat) is an inexact and disputable type thing, but it's inexact for everyone and his rate would've been the worst in the majors by a huge amount if he qualified for the leader board.

This is actually scary. I won't pretend to know exactly what zone% is, but Drabek's MLB career rate of pitches "in" the strike zone, at least according to whoever's interpretation of what the strike zone is, which includes hit balls, is 33.5%. I don't even understand. I don't even understand if I know what zone%. It might be something completely different lol.

[WpgPage]

You can't be a starter with only 2 pitches. It's a fact of baseball he doesn't need to throw a slider he can learn a cutter or curve or whatever it doesn't matter but he needs a 3rd pitch or he is going to fail as a starter and have to move to the pen. There is no way around it no questioning it. His slider needs to get better and at only 21 years of age you may as well send him down to learn it, or move him to the pen to learn it, but one way or the other hes going to have to learn an effective 3rd pitch.

As for Drabek he didn't have problems before last year his minor league number was around 3.25 ( which is fine) until last year then he blew up and continued to blow up in AAA. He had a good enough minor league career and has good enough stuff to get another shot, if you really want you can start him in the pen and have Alverez take the 5th spot but hes going to get hit around and then where are you? Then you have two of your top pitching prospects broken, why take that chance? Send the 22 year old back to AA tell him to throw sliders like there's no tomorrow and see if he can figure it out.

[WpgPage]

Just a theory, but maybe his fastball overpowers weaker hitters in the minors, but can't overpower better hitters with better approaches and better scouting resources in the majors. It's 94 mph with nice movement, but I've never seen control from it. Even in his 17 IP in 2010 where he had a low walk rate, his first pitch strike percentage was 39.1% and his pitches in zone percentage was 31.4%. I think zone% (that last stat) is an inexact and disputable type thing, but it's inexact for everyone and his rate would've been the worst in the majors by a huge amount if he qualified for the leader board.

If you watch Video's of him pitching in the minors he seams to be able to hit his spots with the FB very well. I have no idea why in the majors he suddenly can't hit the broad side of a barn but it wasn't a problem when he was younger. Whats even stranger is that when he was up last year he did not throw his curve, which was by far his best pitch. It has a ton of movement on it and he can throw it for strikes, at least he did reliably in the minors. Yet when he was up here he threw it less than 10% of the time.

[flatjacket1]

You can't be a starter with only 2 pitches. It's a fact of baseball he doesn't need to throw a slider he can learn a cutter or curve or whatever it doesn't matter but he needs a 3rd pitch or he is going to fail as a starter and have to move to the pen. There is no way around it no questioning it. His slider needs to get better and at only 21 years of age you may as well send him down to learn it, or move him to the pen to learn it, but one way or the other hes going to have to learn an effective 3rd pitch.

As for Drabek he didn't have problems before last year his minor league number was around 3.25 ( which is fine) until last year then he blew up and continued to blow up in AAA. He had a good enough minor league career and has good enough stuff to get another shot, if you really want you can start him in the pen and have Alverez take the 5th spot but hes going to get hit around and then where are you? Then you have two of your top pitching prospects broken, why take that chance? Send the 22 year old back to AA tell him to throw sliders like there's no tomorrow and see if he can figure it out.

He throws 9.9% sliders and most of them coming at the end of the year. He can learn a pitch over the offseason and has proven he can be effective with only 2 pitches.

Your argument makes no sense.

[WpgPage]

If he comes to camp and can throw a slider then great I'm all for putting him in the rotation but as it stood at the end of last season he was a 2 pitch guy. Those 9.9% sliders were not effective against batters I can count on one had the number that had good location or movement.

60 IP against September call ups does not mean you have proven you can be effective. I don't understand how this argument makes no sense its a pretty well known fact that guys that don't have 3 solid MLB pitches generally can't hack it as starters, that's why they get moved to the pen. Please point out to me another pitcher that throws only 2 pitches and is successful as a starter.

Back to Drabek here's an excellent scouting report on him from before the 2010 season
http://projectprospect.com/article/2010 ... ing-report

and after his 2010 MLB debut
http://projectprospect.com/article/2010 ... ague-debut

Note that although these articles do mention his control as below average they both agree he should be able to be a 4th/5th starter even with the poor control so there is something more to it then that.

[baulderdash77]

BTW I remember discussing it this year when he was pitching; We had Molina catching for him and Molina couldn`t handle his curveball. The spike was too deep and was resulting in a lot of wild pitches and passed balls.

So some of his problems were related to Molina`s receiving skills because they went away from the CB and started leaning heavily on the cutter which is a newer pitch for him.

[flatjacket1]

I don't remember Drabek doing so hot in September.

[WpgPage]

Out of the pen? Well you have to put him somewhere and sending him to AAA does nothing.

[satyr9]

This post should be stickied. I love you man.

Totally missed that this thread kept going after my post. Sometimes I worry I'm the thread destroyer 'cause there's however many reasonably sized posts, then my giant walls of text lead to tl;dr syndrome.

As for Drabek or Alvarez, there's enough uncertainty about both that it's impossible to predict who should take which spot in 2012. Just wait for spring training and see who looks ready then. I have no problem with either being in the majors or in the minors as long as they earn the spot. We need, at absolute minimum, some type of vet (and please god let him be a little higher calibre than Reyes, Eveland, or Tallet like recent years) to force those two into make it or stay down territory.

Personally, I'm for getting 1 of those spots locked up with quality, whether in FA or trade, and if I'm in AA's chair that's my first priority this offseason. Between those two, Cecil, and injuries there's going to be room even if both prove they're ready to stick right away. Or even if they're moving one to get that pitcher, that's fine with me too.

[Weems]

Out of the pen? Well you have to put him somewhere and sending him to AAA does nothing.

If he'd accept a demotion to AA, that might be the most appropriate place for him. The bullpen isn't the best place. He walks way too many batters and doesn't strike enough out. If that changed, he'd be a great starter with his already real ground ball ability. AA should be his starting point. He didn't handle AA with extreme proficiency in 2010, he had a 7.33 K/9 and 3.78 BB/9. His pure stuff equates to a much higher than 7.33 K/9 in AA.

Spring training will be fun. Sink or swim? I'll go sink.

[WpgPage]

Ill say he makes the team not sure why just have faith that he can bounce back.

[flatjacket1]

Out of the pen? Well you have to put him somewhere and sending him to AAA does nothing.

If he'd accept a demotion to AA, that might be the most appropriate place for him. The bullpen isn't the best place. He walks way too many batters and doesn't strike enough out. If that changed, he'd be a great starter with his already real ground ball ability. AA should be his starting point. He didn't handle AA with extreme proficiency in 2010, he had a 7.33 K/9 and 3.78 BB/9. His pure stuff equates to a much higher than 7.33 K/9 in AA.

Spring training will be fun. Sink or swim? I'll go sink.

Exactly my thoughts. If somebody can't pitch from the bullpen or the rotation in the Majors, why should they be handed a spot over somebody who can? Its ludicrous. I think Drabek can/will bounce back but he is best served working on his command in AA.