Jays 2012 Payroll as it stands today

[satyr9]

This won't count Teahen (who I don't expect to fit on the roster and prefer to think of as a sunk cost from last year's budget, but you can add 5.5 onto this and subtract whoever you prefer), or the Rauch buyout or whoever else got small buyouts that I'm forgetting. Without those, here's where I see the payroll for the team next year:



The arby numbers are from mlbtr and I just upped KJ a bit from some projections, but it or other arby numbers could be off significantly, especially if any of those players receive a long term deal instead.

I almost hesitate to post it because it shows the payroll at even lower than has been discussed with only a lefty reliever spot open. I personally have no problem with this, although I'm also not against a large payroll increase. Still, I imagine this has potential to lead to even more vitriol about the cheapness of Rogers, but so be it, I think the numbers are worth looking at anyway.

[Brinbe]

Thanks for putting that work in!

Not expecting any major additions, but really don't see any reason why they can't at least raise that to a league average of 80-90.

[xAIRNESSx]

Rogers is probably pissed about that $14 million.

[dagger]

Great work, but I think you have to put in Teahan. It's a budgetary cost and to be fair, it would impact what AA can do.

I think you're a bit on the high side for Johnson, I've heard $6.5-6.8

It's also fair to note that the new caps on signing bonuses for draftees and Latin prospects will mean a few million less spent there as well. That spending was one reason a lot of fans here gave Rogers a bit of a pass last season. If they can't spend at the same rate as before on talent development, one would hope that those funds are spent at the major league level, not pocketed by the owner. Remember, their revenue sharing is largely intact this coming season.

[guvernator]

I think AA is going after Garza. (just a hunch) Matt latos is another pitcher that AA should look into.
Also AA should look into acquiring Josh willingham as DH/LF and run a lind/encarnacion platoon at 1B. I bet a lind and EE duo can give the same value as fat prince.
Also the only way I see Cecil in the starting pitcher role is if AA doesn't acquire another SP via trade or Free agency. So Cecil could be the lefty setup guy if he isn't jettisoned in a trade.

[satyr9]

Great work, but I think you have to put in Teahan. It's a budgetary cost and to be fair, it would impact what AA can do.

I think you're a bit on the high side for Johnson, I've heard $6.5-6.8

It's also fair to note that the new caps on signing bonuses for draftees and Latin prospects will mean a few million less spent there as well. That spending was one reason a lot of fans here gave Rogers a bit of a pass last season. If they can't spend at the same rate as before on talent development, one would hope that those funds are spent at the major league level, not pocketed by the owner. Remember, their revenue sharing is largely intact this coming season.

Those are fair points. I did it the way I did because it's pretty easy to look up Cot's and see the salaries and I was more interested in what we'd be paying for players who will play without future changes. KJ, I bumped up a notch to make it fair in case they go longer term and that along with the extra couple k for all the rookie deals should cover the buyouts and ancillary stuff I can't be bothered to try and factor in. I do agree 7 is more than he'll get in a straight arbitration bargaining session, but not by all that much so since it's my own personal guess I went high rather than low, 'cause I'm usually low. Still, it's 67.25 plus one reliever if you count Teahen into this year's payroll.

[Skin Blues]

I bet a lind and EE duo can give the same value as fat prince.

Those two with their platoon splits would have combined for an 800 OPS last season. Prince's OPS was 981 last season. Sign Prince, platoon Lind/E5 at DH, or trade Lind altogether. That sounds better to me.

They could pay him $30M/yr and still have a mediocre payroll. 7 years, $200M. Get it done, Rogers!

[guvernator]

I bet a lind and EE duo can give the same value as fat prince.

Those two with their platoon splits would have combined for an 800 OPS last season. Prince's OPS was 981 last season. Sign Prince, platoon Lind/E5 at DH, or trade Lind altogether. That sounds better to me.

They could pay him $30M/yr and still have a mediocre payroll. 7 years, $200M. Get it done, Rogers!

I know what they did last year. However, If you look their historical splits, you could easily get ops in high 800s. Also they're way better defensively than prince. Prince isn't necessary. Lind seems like a rhythm guy to me (if that makes any sense) - extremely. streaky. So hes prone to get into bad habits. If you take out one aspect, i.e. batting against lefties, he should do much better.

[Skin Blues]

Well he's on a 2 year "streak" of being terrible. Do we just cross our fingers that he goes on a 2 year "streak" of being really good? I'd rather not. Defense is not much different between all thsoe guys. If you think Prince isn't neccesary because we have a 700 OPS first baseman who is still learning the position and has some "nice streaks" then I really don't know what to say to you, other than to ask if you're working for Rogers' PR department trying to justify being cheapasses.

[guvernator]

Well he's on a 2 year "streak" of being terrible. Do we just cross our fingers that he goes on a 2 year "streak" of being really good? I'd rather not. Defense is not much different between all thsoe guys. If you think Prince isn't neccesary because we have a 700 OPS first baseman who is still learning the position and has some "nice streaks" then I really don't know what to say to you, other than to ask if you're working for Rogers' PR department trying to justify being cheapasses.

right. I work for rogers pr department because I'm not advocating spending 25 million per for a tub of lard. Last year lind had a 830 ops against righties (EE had .914 against lefties). Fielder is a negative defensive War 1B (whatever that means). EE and Lind between them could easily produce 1+. It would be just bad business to spend 25 million on a player like fielder who is only going to get worse (you are paying for future production not past performance) for a measly 1-2 addition WAR.

[Skin Blues]

It's not 1-2 additional WAR. Good thing you work for the PR department and not accounting!

[guvernator]

It's not 1-2 additional WAR. Good thing you work for the PR department and not accounting!

Is that supposed to be hurtful? thanks douche. If you don't have a proper argument other than "we long suffering fans of this team deserve big FA signing", why bother posting on a message board? Why not join other douchey bandwagon jumpers in the picket line demanding rogers for some FA action?

Anyways, couple of WAR from the 1B position can be added by simply correcting an inefficiency. Lind or EE aren't considered long term/core pieces, so their future prospects won't be limited by platooning.

[satyr9]

Okay Lind and EE do not equal Fielder. Also, Fielder in 2012 might actually be worth 25 million (5-6 WAR even with negative defense and it's possible, not to mention you can DH him and platoon those two at 1B at the same time so it's not even an either/or). Still, paying 25m for Fielder in 2012 and paying 25m for him in 2021 are two different things and since you cannot do one without the other at this point, I'm personally of the opinion he won't be close to worth the deal he gets, but that doesn't mean he wouldn't be an upgrade over a Lind/EE platoon. If he goes for 6/140 or 150 and the Jays aren't there, then I'll wonder what AA was waiting for, but trying to add Fielder up to more than 40 WAR for 10 years is a pretty tough sell so even with $/WAR increases over time, a big payroll team isn't going to value him at too much more than 200m and I certainly wouldn't want to pay a 25% free agency premium for 10 freaking years to get into where he and Boras are expecting the market to be.

My most pie in the sky projection for him over 10 years maxes out at 10/220 and I don't for an instant expect him to perform to it. That's assuming 6WAR through 30 with 0.5 WAR decreases 'til 35 and a bit more for the year after and 3% $/WAR increases annually. What I hate about those types of projects are they do not include the sheer drop-off in value once a player falls below a certain WAR threshold. 2 WAR for a 1B/DH is worth negative to me, not 8-12 million depending on the team and the year, because if you've got a 25m guy at 2-3 WAR you can't replace him with someone better and I have a hard time giving any dollar value to that performance and the 10/220 gives full value for those final few years at the end of a 10 year deal.

[Kurtz]

right. I work for rogers pr department because I'm not advocating spending 25 million per for a tub of lard. Last year lind had a 830 ops against righties (EE had .914 against lefties). Fielder is a negative defensive War 1B (whatever that means). EE and Lind between them could easily produce 1+. It would be just bad business to spend 25 million on a player like fielder who is only going to get worse (you are paying for future production not past performance) for a measly 1-2 addition WAR.

The only way that EE and Lind could "easily produce 1+" defensively is if they were both allowed to play 1B at the same time.


Also, I like the genius of having a lefty/righty platoon at 1B. But I say we take it a step further, let's have a platoon at EVERY position. Yes, that's the ticket.

[flatjacket1]

right. I work for rogers pr department because I'm not advocating spending 25 million per for a tub of lard. Last year lind had a 830 ops against righties (EE had .914 against lefties). Fielder is a negative defensive War 1B (whatever that means). EE and Lind between them could easily produce 1+. It would be just bad business to spend 25 million on a player like fielder who is only going to get worse (you are paying for future production not past performance) for a measly 1-2 addition WAR.

The only way that EE and Lind could "easily produce 1+" defensively is if they were both allowed to play 1B at the same time.


Also, I like the genius of having a lefty/righty platoon at 1B. But I say we take it a step further, let's have a platoon at EVERY position. Yes, that's the ticket.

You have to admit though, it is likely we get more production from our 1B slot this year regardless of who we sign. I would say 3+ WAR over 162 games it attainable.

[OldNo7]

I am thinking too much along the lines of Randle these days, so I won't do what he does and post my identical frustrations in every thread to derail the topic.

[Skin Blues]

It's not 1-2 additional WAR. Good thing you work for the PR department and not accounting!

Is that supposed to be hurtful? thanks douche. If you don't have a proper argument other than "we long suffering fans of this team deserve big FA signing", why bother posting on a message board? Why not join other douchey bandwagon jumpers in the picket line demanding rogers for some FA action?

Anyways, couple of WAR from the 1B position can be added by simply correcting an inefficiency. Lind or EE aren't considered long term/core pieces, so their future prospects won't be limited by platooning.

It's not supposed to be hurtful, it's supposed to highlight the absurdity of what you're saying.

Like somebody else alluded to, platooning and getting better number isn't as smart a solution as you think, because there are roster limitations. Not to mention that a Lind/E5 platoon isn't even better than Prince anyway. And you're always gonna have one guy on the bench for an entire game, unless you play him elsewhere, and then it's really not a platoon it's just making 1B better at the expense of other positions (LF, DH).

The payroll allows for a big addition. You suggest Josh Willingham to DH, I suggest Prince Fielder to play 1B, And you think the WAR differential is only 1 or 2. I suggest you check out the numbers on Willingham vs Fielder a little more closely.

[flatjacket1]

Not to mention that a Lind/E5 platoon isn't even better than Prince anyway.

The payroll allows for a big addition. You suggest Josh Willingham to DH, I suggest Prince Fielder to play 1B, And you think the WAR differential is only 1 or 2. I suggest you check out the numbers on Willingham vs Fielder a little more closely.

Nobody here is debating than a Lind/E5 combo is better than Fielder, but it cost a hell of a lot less and isn't as ineffective as one might think. Its realistic to assume Fielder is only worth a few (like 2-4) more WAR. Finishing 83-79 or 85-77 wouldn't put us much ahead of the game, people forget that major acquisitions only result in minor changes.

The payroll does allow for a major acquisition but this is the wrong year and there are better ways to blow money. Imagine we got anchored down by a 200M+ contract for a minor improvement at 1B? After seeing what Pujols signed for it was clear that this free agent class will get grossly overpaid. There is always a next year and there are quality players in next years FA class, a lot of them being pitchers. We have options at 1B for this year.

I vote we make a nice sized bid of Darvish and hope nobody else does. He fits more of a need and is younger.

[Indiana Jones]

Not to mention that a Lind/E5 platoon isn't even better than Prince anyway.

The payroll allows for a big addition. You suggest Josh Willingham to DH, I suggest Prince Fielder to play 1B, And you think the WAR differential is only 1 or 2. I suggest you check out the numbers on Willingham vs Fielder a little more closely.

Nobody here is debating than a Lind/E5 combo is better than Fielder, but it cost a hell of a lot less and isn't as ineffective as one might think. Its realistic to assume Fielder is only worth a few (like 2-4) more WAR. Finishing 83-79 or 85-77 wouldn't put us much ahead of the game, people forget that major acquisitions only result in minor changes.

The payroll does allow for a major acquisition but this is the wrong year and there are better ways to blow money. Imagine we got anchored down by a 200M+ contract for a minor improvement at 1B? After seeing what Pujols signed for it was clear that this free agent class will get grossly overpaid. There is always a next year and there are quality players in next years FA class, a lot of them being pitchers. We have options at 1B for this year.

I vote we make a nice sized bid of Darvish and hope nobody else does. He fits more of a need and is younger.

cost doesn't matter. it's not our money, and there's no cap.

[WpgPage]

A Lind E5 platoon would be perfect for this team is 2012, obviously they are not going to be as good as Prince but Adam Lind costs 5.15 mil and E5 costs 3.5. Thats 8.65 mil for your first base slot, that also covers backup 1st and in a pinch those two can play LF and 3B respectively. Lind had a bad year vs rights last year but was hurt by a god awful .250 BABIP vs rightys. Career .842 OPS. E5 against the leftys has had 4 straight years of +.810 OPS with a career mark of .841. A platoon should give you around and .840 OPS and around 35 HR from the 1st Base position. Is having 2 players do the work of one ideal? No but in this case they serve enough other roles that it can be justified.

E5/L3 .840 OPS 35 HR---8.65 MM
Prince .956 38 HR---22MM

Is Prince worth the extra 13+ MM?
Even if we then signed a DH someone like Beltran at 12 MM a year that's still 20.65 MM for those two positions where you would be looking at minimum 25.5 MM with Prince.

Prince/E5--25.5 MM
.956+.803 16+38 HR

Platoon/Beltran--20.65 MM
.840+.850 35+20 HR

(Note used Bill James wildly optimistic projections for everyone's full seasons). Also note that while your stuck with Prince for 6+ years minimum you can jettison that entire setup within 2 years if you don't like it.

Sample 25 man Roster
7 BP + 5 SP = 12
Lawrie + Yunel + Johnson + Lind + JPA + Snider + Rasmus + Bats = 8
Mathis + E5 + Beltran + Davis + McCoy = 5
25 man Roster