RealGM Top 100 List #79

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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #79 

Post#21 » by bastillon » Fri Dec 9, 2011 9:00 pm

WS: it's a decent ballpark measure if you're not using it reasonably. OWS are often accurate. it doesn't take into account shot creation (Nash, Magic), off ball offense (Bird, Ray, Reggie, Rip) or defensive attention (Ben Wallace, Rondo) but overall it's okay IMO. DWS is where this whole concept completely breaks down. if on offense you can divide the pie reasonably well using boxscore stats, defensively boxscore stats mean almost nothing. the best example here is Ray Allen pre-Boston and in-Boston. according to DWS he was a big time liability pre-Boston and then became a top-notch defender at the age of 32, no less. Celtics guards in the 60s are good examples as well. they posted amazing DWS stats based on B-R estimations, but somehow numbers didn't add up at all because when Russell retired THEIR DWS retired with him. wonder why, sure it wasn't because Russell was anchoring that defense...

I can't see why anyone would use WS when evaluating big's impact when bigs are responsible for the defense and WS completely screws up DWS. results can be very misleading. I'm different from most posters here. to me big without defesive impact is seriously damaged and I don't consider him a high impact player, regardless of his status, be it Barkley or Moses. if you're playing on league's worst defensive team as its big man, you're not getting anywhere on my list.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #79 

Post#22 » by Dr Positivity » Fri Dec 9, 2011 9:16 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:Well, let's be clear though: The situations you describe don't have WS standing out ridiculously compared to other advanced stats.

In '08-09, Deron had a PER of 21.1 while Paul had 30.0 and played more minutes. Meanwhile basketball-value puts Deron's APM at roughly 1/3rd of Chris Paul's. No one should be looking at the various stats we have and think "Why does WS hate Deron so much!".

And Melo, well you know where I am on Melo, but it's more of the same. All advanced metrics say he's contributing a lot less than Durant, so you should be asking yourself what is it that you are letting have such a big influence on your that makes you reject what you see in these stats?

To be honest, it sounds like it might be as simple as you putting a lot of credence in primacy. And by that I mean: If you're letting a guy be the focal point of your offense, and he's putting up big numbers, and the offense is doing well generally, then that guy must be doing something really right.

I use the same rationale myself up to a point, but among modern players when we've got all this data I'm more comfortable with concluding that certain players are simply generating a lot more team lift than others despite not playing a necessarily bigger role or a fundamentally more successful team.


Well in the case of Deron (Melo is a different case), I see a player who's role is extremely similar to Paul's, in a very similar PnR centric offense. Paul's USG is 27.5% and Deron's is 24.7%. To me, regardless of the question of "How much better is Paul than Deron", what I know as a near certainity, is that the Jazz that year use Deron is 90% as big a role as Paul at the worst, subtract some for the extra missed games (which I don't care about much in the context of this project for the record. In the context of winning a title, a star playing 68 instead of 78 doesn't change your fate much)

So if the goal of OWS/DWS is to take the total offensive/defense wins the team has and divy it up as best they can by who's most responsible for it - in this case it just doesn't make sense to me that Paul in a very similar situation would be given twice as much % wise of the Hornets offense as Deron. Regardless of how good these players are, whatever OWS used to divy up how much of the Jazz offense belonged to Deron vs Paul, clearly punched out the wrong numbers. Just like it screwed up by Billups getting treated as a bigger focal point than Nash in 06, mainly because the efficiency of Nash's teammmates (in part to him) wasn't attributed to him, while all of Billups teammates being sub average TS% painted a picture of a guy being his entire offense a la 2011 Rose

On that note Deron Williams being the main guy on top 10 offenses isn't why I'm voting for him here. I think his skillset as a scorer with range and 10apg playmaking is incredibly easy to build around functionally - and IMO, above players like Brand and Bosh and Amare's "2nd option PF" type function. I like Deron more for the same reason I like Price over Kemp - 20 pt, 9 assist guards who can run your team at a very high level + can fit with other stars with shooting, are my prefence over 20/9 finishing bigs
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #79 

Post#23 » by Doctor MJ » Fri Dec 9, 2011 9:25 pm

bastillon wrote:Doc I got different results: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc ... l=en#gid=0

Sheed posted 4.49 APM, 1.72 on offense, 2.77 on defense. close to Kidd, Gasol and Billups. he performed well consistently among +/- stats year-to-year. look at 82 games for details. I think you didn't consider the years you're looking at. of course in any study containing 07-11 data Sheed is gonna be a lot worse than in his prime. I mean you realise that's including player's 32-37 age years. Sheed still measures out miraculously well and I'm trusting that data not because I love Wayne Winston, but because it's consistent with my eye test. I think Sheed is a valuable 2-way player and there are only handful of players who can make visible impact on both ends of the court.

I can't imagine how much worse on defense Sheed would have to be so that Ben Wallace would've been a better player considering they're ocean's apart on offense. Sheed put up 17-18 ppg on decent efficiency while taking opposing big men out of the paint. Ben Wallace put up less than 10 pts on horrible efficiency while letting opposing big men leave him often unguarded. that's a gap so huge Sheed would have to be like Amare defensively to make up for it. I don't like Ben Wallace on this list at all, I absolutely love him as a player, but his offensive shortcomings are hurting his team too much to select him right now. I also consider Sheed top5 defender of his generation, behind Garnett, Duncan, Ben Wallace and Artest.


Scroll down in the spreadsheet, you'll see that Ilardi split the low minute players from '08-09 in a different list. And look I'll grant that there are some players mixed in their that are low minute guys generally - I'm not holding them against Sheed - but no one should get the impression that Sheed was a regular top 10 impact guy as the years went by in this decade.

You list some Kidd, Gasol, and Billups and that's good to do. It's good to ask the question whether there should be major separation between these guys, but I'll remind you that Billups isn't voted in yet, and has FAR be reliability and locker room impact.

vs Ben. I would go with you that Sheed at his best is better than Ben, but I think Ben's had the better career, and that's all about Sheed shooting himself in the foot. The Blazers' wanted Sheed to be their star, and he fizzled eventually becoming the most important reason for the single most toxic locker room of the past decade. They simply had to get rid of him and rebuild their organization.

What he did in Detroit was nice, but it worked in part because he wasn't asked to do that much. He was no longer a 1st or 2nd option, he wasn't a big rebounder or playmaker, and he wasn't asked to be the primary help defender which is typically the most important role of a star big man defender. He was an ensemble piece working in a locker room that already had strong structure and morale, and that's where and what he was comfortable being.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #79 

Post#24 » by Doctor MJ » Fri Dec 9, 2011 9:28 pm

bastillon wrote:WS: it's a decent ballpark measure if you're not using it reasonably. OWS are often accurate. it doesn't take into account shot creation (Nash, Magic), off ball offense (Bird, Ray, Reggie, Rip) or defensive attention (Ben Wallace, Rondo) but overall it's okay IMO. DWS is where this whole concept completely breaks down. if on offense you can divide the pie reasonably well using boxscore stats, defensively boxscore stats mean almost nothing. the best example here is Ray Allen pre-Boston and in-Boston. according to DWS he was a big time liability pre-Boston and then became a top-notch defender at the age of 32, no less. Celtics guards in the 60s are good examples as well. they posted amazing DWS stats based on B-R estimations, but somehow numbers didn't add up at all because when Russell retired THEIR DWS retired with him. wonder why, sure it wasn't because Russell was anchoring that defense...

I can't see why anyone would use WS when evaluating big's impact when bigs are responsible for the defense and WS completely screws up DWS. results can be very misleading. I'm different from most posters here. to me big without defesive impact is seriously damaged and I don't consider him a high impact player, regardless of his status, be it Barkley or Moses. if you're playing on league's worst defensive team as its big man, you're not getting anywhere on my list.


DWS certainly have less credibility - as does every defensive stat relative to its offensive counterparts except +/-.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #79 

Post#25 » by Doctor MJ » Fri Dec 9, 2011 9:37 pm

Dr Mufasa wrote:Well in the case of Deron (Melo is a different case), I see a player who's role is extremely similar to Paul's, in a very similar PnR centric offense. Paul's USG is 27.5% and Deron's is 24.7%. To me, regardless of the question of "How much better is Paul than Deron", what I know as a near certainity, is that the Jazz that year use Deron is 90% as big a role as Paul at the worst, subtract some for the extra missed games (which I don't care about much in the context of this project for the record. In the context of winning a title, a star playing 68 instead of 78 doesn't change your fate much)

So if the goal of OWS/DWS is to take the total offensive/defense wins the team has and divy it up as best they can by who's most responsible for it - in this case it just doesn't make sense to me that Paul in a very similar situation would be given twice as much % wise of the Hornets offense as Deron. Regardless of how good these players are, whatever OWS used to divy up how much of the Jazz offense belonged to Deron vs Paul, clearly punched out the wrong numbers. Just like it screwed up by Billups getting treated as a bigger focal point than Nash in 06, mainly because the efficiency of Nash's teammmates (in part to him) wasn't attributed to him, while all of Billups teammates being sub average TS% painted a picture of a guy being his entire offense a la 2011 Rose

On that note Deron Williams being the main guy on top 10 offenses isn't why I'm voting for him here. I think his skillset as a scorer with range and 10apg playmaking is incredibly easy to build around functionally - and IMO, above players like Brand and Bosh and Amare's "2nd option PF" type function. I like Deron more for the same reason I like Price over Kemp - 20 pt, 9 assist guards who can run your team at a very high level + can fit with other stars with shooting, are my prefence over 20/9 finishing bigs


Well I think first and foremost it's important to understand the distinction between a stat that literally divvies up a team's success, and a stat that uses correlation with team success as a basis for weighting, which when taking to an extreme becomes statistical +/-. Win Shares has a foot in each pool which leads to an impure hybrid...but I think does actually make it more like how we analysts actually think of players.

You mention Nash, and obviously, I don't use Win Shares or PER against him. I always look at other things, APM among them, and those other things tell me he's having a huge impact that those other stats are missing so I'm comfortable saying those stats are not the best estimation of value in that particular case. Obviously that means I'm open to them being far off the mark in other cases as well, but that doesn't mean I throw out these stats in all cases. I look at the tools available, in isolation and together, decide which has the most credibility, and use that to form an opinion. If I've got nothing better than WS for a particular player, then WS is going to loom proportionately larger for that players, and at the same time, that's going to mean my opinion of the player is less set in stone.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #79 

Post#26 » by bastillon » Fri Dec 9, 2011 10:29 pm

Doc: the fact that he's even close to Billups, Gasol or Kidd means that he was better than these guys in his prime because these are his worse years. maybe not Kidd since their primes overlapped, but Gasol and Billups... Sheed was definitely better than them. if Sheed was that good in 03-11 or 03-09, think what his impact was in 00-06.

I mean you're talking about how Sheed can't be the main guy and yet defend Ben Wallace ? Sheed is not a clear-cut #1 on championship team but he was IMO the best player on 04 Pistons and he'd be a valuable contributor on any team in NBA history.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #79 

Post#27 » by ElGee » Sat Dec 10, 2011 12:11 am

Since people are throwing out fringe top 100 candidates for the home stretch, I'll mention a guy who really impressed me on film and in researching him for the RPOY - Gus Johnson. I've only been able to do 2 seasons of his in/out data (a few more coming hopefully), but they jibe with what I see on the court

-a valuable team player
-an excellent rebounder (value)
-an excellent defender (by reputation -- and he was incredibly strong and versatile and athletic)

In 1968, I have 21 of his 22 missed games (with the mystery game either a 5-point win or 5-point loss) and Baltimore was -3.9 without him and +0.8 with him. (+4.7 net)

In 1969, as I've mentioned, the Bullets were +5.5 MOV team before his season-ending injury and just +1.9 after (+3.9 net).

What is encouraging about these large-sample value numbers to me is:

(a) They occur in 2 totally different settings. The 68 team he's basically a lead veteran next to the young Earl Monroe. The 69 team everyone is a year more developed and Unseld is on the team (winning league MVP, infamously)...a much more balanced team. Gus still shows value numbers

(b) They occur after his first major injury.

Consider the overall body of work:

His rookie year, 6th in MVP voting (joined a fairly congruent roster and they went from -3.6 to -1.6 SRS (not bad for a rookie). They went from 7th in rebounding (5145) to 3rd (5460). Even factoring in their estimated pace increase (using FGA's) it's still a clear increase in rebounding.
In 1965, an all-star and 2nd team all-nba
In 1966, 2nd team all-nba despite missing 38 games with the aforementioned injury
In 70 and 71, along with solid PS performances (statistically, at least), he is again all-nba 2nd team and all-defensive team both years.

I have Gus right around the top 100 gatekeeper range right now - please take a closer look.

PS Fun reputation-base fact: The 4-tme all-nbers not voted on our list yet:
Haywood
Westphal
Price
Mullin
Maravich
Gus Johnson
Heinsohn
Carmelo
Amare
Richmond
Yao
Slater Martin
Lucas
Tim Hardaway

All these players at least warrant examination IMO at this point in the project (most are in my top 100 or top 110).
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #79 

Post#28 » by ElGee » Sat Dec 10, 2011 12:24 am

vote: Mark Price
nominate: Carmelo Anthony

Let's get that out of the way.

Haven't had time to read through to here yet, but nice to see some good discussion these last few threads. I'll try and chime in this month when I can.

Otherwise, I'd like to leave a voting list for the next few rounds just in case I don't get around to it:

1. Mark Price
2. Bill Sharman
3. Carmelo Anthony (pending nomination)
4. Elton Brand (pending nomination)
5. Shawn Kemp

Obviously count my nomination for Melo and Brand until they're in. If Deron Williams gets some momentum, he would be my next go so feel free to count me on his wagon if that happens.

--

Wanted to say one thing about Melo in response to Doc's point of long term APM. Doc knows I like Melo because of adjustments he made in his game circa 09/10. I think that greatly increased his offensive value as a player...something we'll see this year if Chandler joins the Knicks (uh oh). But having a good year or two gives him a nice peak, which affects how I evaluate him on a GOAT list. It WILL NOT, however, iron out his long-term APM data. There were many years where, yes, despite an amazing skill set (even all-star quality contributions), Melo was massively overvalued because of his volume scoring contributions.

But again, look at Hawkins. Anthony's in his 9th year now. He actually has decent longevity. THat's why it's time for him on my list...
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #79 

Post#29 » by penbeast0 » Sat Dec 10, 2011 12:26 am

bastillon wrote:realbig3, good list. if I was voting I would nominate Sheed ahead of all of the guys you mentioned. decade APM, consistently ranking among top players in with/without, a member of the best teams of the decade (Blazers, Pistons, Celtics) always making significant contributions to his teams. in his prime (00-06) he put up 17 ppg on 54% TS, 7.5 rpg, 2 apg, 1.5 blks and 1 stl. he also shot 34% from 3pt range always drawing bigs away from the hoop. offensively, he was a threat both with the ball and without. defensively, top of the league. I see Rasheed as someone who is a lot better than Ben. sure, Ben was a DPOY but Sheed wasn't THAT much worse as a defender, while offensively it's a blowout because Sheed is valuable contributor and Ben is a big time liability.

he played 15 seasons in the NBA and is somewhat underrated now but I always loved him as a player and the way he ended his career should always be remembered. a true warrior. just remembering the mid 00s, I don't think there was a guy who thought Sheed was worse than Marion. both offensively and defensively, Sheed was a better player.


I was much more impressed with Marion than Sheed who I thought got put into a lucky spot where he just happened to fit well. Marion had a much bigger role defensively, he and Raja Bell seemed to be the only ones working that end and Raja was very solid but not spectacular -- Marion was covering a lot. I'm a fan of great help defenders even if they don't play center which is something some high steals players are and some aren't. Offensively Sheed always looked like he could have been better if he wanted to but never looked like he wanted to while Marion was always sneaking in from the side for a slam or putback. Finally, Marion was outrebounding Sheed badly even playing 3/4 while Sheed was playing 4/5 to say nothing of the technical fouls and blowups. Marion was a top 10 NBA player in a year or two and close another couple of years; Sheed was never in that range for me.

I have Sheed behind Larry Nance and even Paul Silas on my eyetest too though I haven't done any stat work to back it up. I think rebounding is nearly as key as defense to a big and Sheed is pretty weak in that area.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #79 

Post#30 » by Doctor MJ » Sat Dec 10, 2011 12:40 am

ElGee wrote:Wanted to say one thing about Melo in response to Doc's point of long term APM. Doc knows I like Melo because of adjustments he made in his game circa 09/10. I think that greatly increased his offensive value as a player...something we'll see this year if Chandler joins the Knicks (uh oh). But having a good year or two gives him a nice peak, which affects how I evaluate him on a GOAT list. It WILL NOT, however, iron out his long-term APM data. There were many years where, yes, despite an amazing skill set (even all-star quality contributions), Melo was massively overvalued because of his volume scoring contributions.

But again, look at Hawkins. Anthony's in his 9th year now. He actually has decent longevity. THat's why it's time for him on my list...


I'll quote the first paragraph here out of respect, and reiterate that I agree that he's got some remarkable skills, and that I will not claim that it's impossible for him end up as true superstar-impact player.

At this point though, hasn't happened. Of course if you value longevity enough you've got to pick Melo over Connie, and if you think they have a comparable peak impact, you should pick Melo regardless of your peak/longevity weighting.

Again though, I'll bring up WS. Clearly people think I'm cherry picking and I'm losing credibility in the argument but I can't help myself.

Total WS: Connie 76.7, Melo 56.6

Years with 7 or more WS: Connie 7, Melo 5

Anyone looking at this like Melo's got 8 years of peak Melo play, he hasn't. His first 2 years are completely worthless, another year with injury issues, and last year where he played on 2 teams and didn't seem to do anything for either team.

And of course, anyone looking at Connie as a 2 year guy, no, it's not anything like that when we're talking about comparisons with Melo-level guys.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #79 

Post#31 » by bastillon » Sat Dec 10, 2011 12:47 am

Marion did a good job defensively but Sheed was just better bc he could protect the paint at all times. Sheed is also the best man defender among big men of his generation, who contained guys like KG (00 playoffs) or Duncan (05 finals), not to mention JO (repeatedly) or the destruction of Dwight Howard (08, 10). Sheed was just a monster defensively in his prime. Marion was a nice cathalyst, but Suns were never a good defensive team with his contributions. Rasheed joined the Pistons and transformed them from one of the best defensive teams in the league to strong GOAT candidate. the way Pistons destroyed its opposition defensively in 04 postseason was unmatched by any team I have ever seen. Marion's rebounding numbers are inflated bc of mins and pace. Rasheed's reb rate were similar.

03: Marion 13 Sheed 12.3
04: Marion 13.1 Sheed 11.3
05: Marion 15.5 Sheed 14.0
06: Marion 16.3 Sheed 11.7

with almost all of the difference coming on ORB, I don't see how that should affect Sheed-Marion defensively. that's only because of Sheed's jumpshooting style of play. well, at least he was first in transition which let Ben Wallace go after every offensive rebound and harass outlet passers - it was Larry Brown's gameplan, often quoted in the games from 05 or 06.

on offense Marion was putting up bigger numbers but he did that playing with Nash and couldn't create for himself to save his life. when he was playing without Nash in the playoffs (where shot creation is simply necessary) Marion was not able to contribute at all, with his TS% being at pathetic levels as low as 45%. Sheed wasn't a great offensive performer either, but at least he could contribute offensively in the playoffs and was never getting dominated by anybody like Marion was in 06 against Lamar Odom, Elton Brand and Dirk Nowitzki in three consecutive series. I know Marion all-out because I watched every Suns game back in the day. his real value is 01-03. a very good player, but not all-NBA type of guy.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #79 

Post#32 » by ronnymac2 » Sat Dec 10, 2011 4:07 am

Vote: Connie Hawkins

Nominate: Deron Williams
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #79 

Post#33 » by ronnymac2 » Sat Dec 10, 2011 4:20 am

DavidStern wrote:vote: Connie
nominate: Eaton! One of the best defender in history, in terms of impact he was better defeder than Mutombo, Big Ben or even Thurmond.


Among high-profile players, Mark Eaton was the worst offensive player ever. He was worse than Ben Wallace offensively. At least Wallace was active and not a terrible passer. Eaton was bad at all things offense.

Honestly, I was waiting for somebody to nominate Eaton, just so I could say that. :D
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #79 

Post#34 » by ronnymac2 » Sat Dec 10, 2011 4:28 am

I think every post in this thread has been top-notch.

Besides the players who obviously deserve consideration (Mullin, Dumars, etc.), I just want to put my under-the-radar guys:

Maurice Lucas
Horace Grant
Bill Laimbeer
Calvin Murphy (possibly...I still want to try and watch him more)

Tim Hardaway has gotten too little attention as well. This guy was an elite point guard with a decently long prime.

I liked Mufasa's post on Bosh a lot. I was really impressed with how he blended with the stars in Miami, but I'd still probably take Amar'e as the actual superior player over Bosh.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #79 

Post#35 » by ronnymac2 » Sat Dec 10, 2011 4:39 am

bastillon wrote:Marion did a good job defensively but Sheed was just better bc he could protect the paint at all times. Sheed is also the best man defender among big men of his generation, who contained guys like KG (00 playoffs) or Duncan (05 finals), not to mention JO (repeatedly) or the destruction of Dwight Howard (08, 10). Sheed was just a monster defensively in his prime. Marion was a nice cathalyst, but Suns were never a good defensive team with his contributions.


Hold on. Sheed alone wasn't responsible for shutting down the SF-version of KG. KG was triple-teamed the whole time in that series, which is how he accumulated roughly 9 APG in that series if I recall correctly. Portland's D was monstrous with its size and length. Pippen/Wallace/Sabonis with Grant off the bench. C'mon, you're a KG guy. You should know this.

Jermaine O'Neal was not an efficient offensive big man.

Sheed did hold up his part of the bargain in the tag-team defense with Ben in 2005 against Timmy, but it should be noted that Tim wasn't 100 percent healthy in that series.

Holding down 2008 Dwight isn't impressive.

And Sheed didn't hold him down in 2010.


I don't know man. I really, really like Sheed as a piece on a team, but if I'm picking first and I need to pick Ben or Sheed, I'm taking Ben. With Ben, at least I know I have an anchor on one side of the court.

Rasheed is the piece you add to a Ben-anchored team. It's not the other way around.

I know you mentioned Horace in your post. I'd say if you're that impressed with Sheed, you should be arguing for HoGrant more vehemently. Grant was a more versatile defender (important in Chicago's trapping defensive scheme) and made clutch defensive plays. He helped Orlando become elite, as he was perfect for both Shaq and Penny- the perfect connection between the two stars. Offensively, he was low-turnover and hit the offensive glass. By the time he got to Orlando, he was automatic from 18 feet, so while he didn't have Sheed's range from 3, he still spread the floor well. Offensively, Horace was like the PF-version of Tyson Chandler, with more scoring.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #79 

Post#36 » by lorak » Sat Dec 10, 2011 7:21 am

ronnymac2 wrote:
DavidStern wrote:vote: Connie
nominate: Eaton! One of the best defender in history, in terms of impact he was better defeder than Mutombo, Big Ben or even Thurmond.


Among high-profile players, Mark Eaton was the worst offensive player ever. He was worse than Ben Wallace offensively. At least Wallace was active and not a terrible passer. Eaton was bad at all things offense.

Honestly, I was waiting for somebody to nominate Eaton, just so I could say that. :D


:D
I agree about his offense (and that's probably main reason why Jazz wasn't able to be very good offensively until Eaton played less minutes and retired), but his value on defensive end was really big. His nickname should be "intimidate". I stat tracked some Jazz games from the 80s and Eaton changed EVERYTHING in the paint. Sometimes he had 10 intimidate plays (so he forced missed shot beacuse of his presence) per quarter (!).
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #79 

Post#37 » by bastillon » Sat Dec 10, 2011 1:43 pm

okay, Ronny I understand there are some excuses, but Sheed was always a great man defender...and yes embarassing Dwight 1 vs 1 was impressive. but let's get to work:

Duncan: http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... =duncati01
19 ppg, 45% FG, 2.9 ast, 2.7 tov. if you take a closer look at their h2h battles from Detroit, Duncan was rarely breaking 20 ppg.

in their 11 playoff meetings, similarly Duncan put up 19 ppg, 45% FG, 2.3 TOV, 2.6 ast while being guarded most of the time 1 on 1. I don't see why you would excuse Duncan for not being 100% when it was perfectly obvious Duncan couldn't play well against Sheed even at his best.

JO wasn't an efficient big man, but that doesn't mean he would put up 17 ppg on 40% against other defenders like he did in 04 ECF. or he wouldn't go for 16 ppg on 38% like he did in 05 ECSF. on average he put up 20 ppg 43% in 04 and 24 ppg on 45% in 05. so Sheed made him completely ineffective and this was a legit scoring big man.

I disagree with the perception of Ben as a "defensive anchor" and Sheed as "not a defensive anchor". they were at least comparable in terms of defensive impact in their prime. Ben was a better defender but not to the extent where you would look at them in black/white colors. for instance they were top5 defense with Big Ben in 07, but still a top7 defense with only Sheed left.

Sheed's teams:
PTB 00-03: 5th, 9th, 13th, 13th
Pistons: 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 7th
there's a reason why Pistons went 17-4 with Sheed and 37-24 otherwise

I'm doubting Ben's big overall impact when he's a clear negative defensively and makes up for a lot of his defense on the other end. he'd be a big time impact player on a team like Mavs in the early 00s because their top players could increase their volumes without the drop in efficiency... but other than that I can hardly see how he would be making great impact on his team. Sheed on the other hand could go to almost any team ever and be a valuable contributor because of his versatility and 2-way play. for instance, APM 04-09: Sheed 1.7 offense, 2.7 defense. Ben 5.2 defense, -3 offense. we shouldn't ignore his offensive incapabilities.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #79 

Post#38 » by penbeast0 » Sat Dec 10, 2011 2:38 pm

bastillon wrote:Sheed wasn't a great offensive performer either, but at least he could contribute offensively in the playoffs and was never getting dominated by anybody like Marion was in 06 against Lamar Odom, Elton Brand and Dirk Nowitzki in three consecutive series. I know Marion all-out because I watched every Suns game back in the day. his real value is 01-03. a very good player, but not all-NBA type of guy.


Marion in those 3 series averaged 20.4/11.7 on .561ts% . . . if that's a guy who can't produce offensively in the playoffs I'm not sure what you are looking for.

And the crippled up Suns won two of those series too before losing to a clearly more talented Dallas team.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #79 

Post#39 » by drza » Sat Dec 10, 2011 3:48 pm

I like the Sheed talk. Somewhere a while back, maybe 15 threads ago, I mentioned I might take Billups third among those '04 Pistons behind both Wallaces. Or that at least it's an interesting match-up.

Vote: Mark Price
Nominate: not sure. Went Hagan before, so I guess I'll stay, but any of the current-day PFs could easily slot in for me here
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #79 

Post#40 » by penbeast0 » Sat Dec 10, 2011 5:02 pm

Price looks like he is leading but I can't see his advantage over Billups. They score at about the same volume and efficiency, Price gets more assists but Billups has the higher A/T level, and Billups is a much better defender plus he has the edge in playoff success (again, both have solid numbers but Chauncey led his team to a ring over Shaq/Kobe/etc. where Price could never get past the Bulls).

As for Sheed v. Matrix defensively. I agree that Sheed is the better man defender; but Marion is the better help defender and to my mind has more impact in a team sense (and he did a nice job on LeBron in the finals last year) -- the Suns weren't a great defensive team but then again, he was covering for a lot of poor defenders there and keeping them in games with it.

VOTE

Billups – penbeast0

Kemp – JordansBulls

Price – Dr Mufasa, therealbig3, drza

Hawkins – Doctor MJ, ronnymac2, DavidStern

Lucas -- Laimbeer


NOMINATE

Daugherty – JordansBulls

Marion – penbeast0

Deron – Dr Mufasa, ronnymac2

Nance – therealbig3

Daniels – Laimbeer

Hagan -- drza

Eaton -- DavidStern
“Most people use statistics like a drunk man uses a lamppost; more for support than illumination,” Andrew Lang.

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