Poll: The Most Untouchable Jays Prospect?

[flatjacket1]

D'arnaud has a high ceiling in his own right though don't get me wrong but not on the level of a Syndergaard or even Gose.

I never heard of anybody being as high on Noah as you. Even Sickels put him 4th on the Jays top 20.

After the game, both Kevin Goldstein and Keith Law responded to tweets asking if Syndergaard was a top 100 prospect, and they both responded negatively.

I think Noah is a great prospect and all but I think we have more depth at pitching (12 of top 20 prospects are pitchers, on Sickels list) than catcher, but I agree that we have depth at both.

When you can have arguments about which prospect is untouchable, it shows how strong the system is. I say we keep both to be honest.

[Moxie]

Marcus Knecht. He's Canadian!

[torontoaces04]

I voted for Drew Hutchison. Great command, mixes his stuff up well, and the stats speak for themselves. He was the best overall Jays prospect last year, thus the most untouchable (though I don't like the term).

D'Arnaud is a high level Prospect, and projects to have a long successful career as the Jays starting Catcher. That being said, IMHO, Pitching Prospects>>Position Prospects, even one at THE premium position, Catcher.

That's why I settled on Hutchison.

[flatjacket1]

That being said, IMHO, Pitching Prospects>>Position Prospects, even one at THE premium position, Catcher.

http://www.royalsreview.com/2011/2/14/1 ... -prospects

Position player prospects succeed much more often than pitching prospects.
About 60% of position players ranked in Baseball America’s top 20 succeed in the majors.
About 40% of pitchers ranked in the top 20 succeed in the majors.
Corner infield prospects and catchers are the most likely to succeed in the majors, but outfielders, third basemen and shortstops are the most likely to become stars. Second basemen and pitchers are the least likely prospects to succeed in the majors or to become stars.

I liked your post until you mentioned that. Pitchers have a significantly higher bust rate than position players, and catcher is one of the most surefire positions. There's a reason we have 12 of our top 20 prospects being pitchers, its because we'd be lucky of that class to get 3 or 4 good ones. Position players (as seen with Lawrie) tend to develop a lot better and are more "can't miss".

[YogiStewart]

d'Arnaud is of course the best prospect, but I wouldn't call him untouchable because we already have a young, controllable and pretty good catcher in JPA.

this is my problem. i'd rather have d'Arnaud than JPA (if all pans out).

[torontoaces04]

That being said, IMHO, Pitching Prospects>>Position Prospects, even one at THE premium position, Catcher.

http://www.royalsreview.com/2011/2/14/1 ... -prospects

I liked your post until you mentioned that. Pitchers have a significantly higher bust rate than position players, and catcher is one of the most surefire positions. There's a reason we have 12 of our top 20 prospects being pitchers, its because we'd be lucky of that class to get 3 or 4 good ones. Position players (as seen with Lawrie) tend to develop a lot better and are more "can't miss".

I completely agree with you, and so does AA. You need only look at his past two drafts to see that. He's stockpiling high-ceiling HS Pitchers like there's no tomorrow...and what do you know....they changed the draft rules. AA got his hands on as many as he could before the rules changed.

This is exactly the reason I think your best pitching Prospect is more important than your best positional one. Pitcher's are the most valuable position in all of baseball, and are expensive as hell. You can trade top positional players, and more will evenly come along, as you pointed out in the success rate of Prospects. If you trade a top pitching Prospect, who knows when the next great one is going to come along. This year? Next year? The year after that? You're also very unlikely to obtain one via trade.

A few more stats on Drew Hutchison:

Over 149 innings, he gave up......4HR's!!! That works out to about 0.25HR/9.

171 strikeouts, and only 35 walks.

In 3 starts at the end of the year in AA he went 3-0, while having a K's rate of around 12.5/9!

All of this was done with a WHIP that only got smaller as he got promoted. I think this can be attributed to having the quality of infield defenders improve with him. He's great at inducing ground-balls.

I know Travis D'Arnaud was named MVP of the Eastern League, but you could argue that Drew Hutchison had the best season in the Jays system last year.

I have a ton of faith in AA's skill as drafter, specifically because of the money and personnel he has put into scouting. He'll keep Toronto's cupboards nice and full for years to come.

[flatjacket1]

I completely agree with you, and so does AA. You need only look at his past two drafts to see that. He's stockpiling high-ceiling HS Pitchers like there's no tomorrow...and what do you know....they changed the draft rules. AA got his hands on as many as he could before the rules changed.

This is exactly the reason I think your best pitching Prospect is more important than your best positional one. Pitcher's are the most valuable position in all of baseball, and are expensive as hell. You can trade top positional players, and more will evenly come along, as you pointed out in the success rate of Prospects. If you trade a top pitching Prospect, who knows when the next great one is going to come along. This year? Next year? The year after that? You're also very unlikely to obtain one via trade.
A few more stats on Drew Hutchison:
Over 149 innings, he gave up......4HR's!!! That works out to about 0.25HR/9.
171 strikeouts, and only 35 walks.
In 3 starts at the end of the year in AA he went 3-0, while having a K's rate of around 12.5/9!
All of this was done with a WHIP that only got smaller as he got promoted. I think this can be attributed to having the quality of infield defenders improve with him. He's great at inducing ground-balls.
I know Travis D'Arnaud was named MVP of the Eastern League, but you could argue that Drew Hutchison had the best season in the Jays system last year.
I have a ton of faith in AA's skill as drafter, specifically because of the money and personnel he has put into scouting. He'll keep Toronto's cupboards nice and full for years to come.

Yeah, the reason so many more pitchers are taken in the draft than position players is because pitchers flame out more frequently. That's why AA has been stockpiling pitching.

You present a good argument for Hutch and I agree that he put up a monster line. I'm still going to pretend the guy behind the plate can be attributed to some of his success but I understand what you're saying. IMO hes about 1 year away from proving to me he will be able to pitch on a major league roster, while D'Arnaud can have a case made where he can currently contribute more than JPA.

[Krylian]

I think it would take the most to pry Gose away from AA. From everything I've heard and read, he loves Gose like a son.

For me, I think everyone can be had...for the right price. d'Arnaud is the best prospect right now, but if you're a JPA believer then you can leverage d'Arnaud to bring back a big return.

It really depends on how you're looking at it....just on pure value, or the teams needs. I love Syndergaard and Cardona's ceilings. Cardona is going to be CRAZY good in a few years. At 17 he was already hitting 96 this summer...and his changeup is one of the best in the organization. He's 6'4" and was 190 last I heard...lots of room for growth. His curve is inconsistent but has shown an ability to spin a good one. Look for him to take another big step forward this coming season...I expect we see him in Vancouver.