Official Speculation & Free Agency Thread (Part VIII)

[MagicTownBaller]

Maybe I'm wrong, but the max contract for a player is 30% of the cap.  The cap is at $58 Million.  So the starting salary can only be $17.4 Million with 4.5% increase every year.  So that means that he can only sign a little less then $75 Million over 4 years.

First Year: $17,400,000
Second Year: $18,180,000
Third Year: $19,000,000
Fourth Year: $19,860,000

That equals $74,440,000 over four years for a team signing him outright in free agency.  That averages out to $18,610,000 per year.

First Year: $17,400,000
Second Year: $18,700,000
Third Year: $20,110,000
Fourth Year: $21,620,000
Fifth Year: $23,240,000

That equals $101,070,000 over five years for us re-signing him with our bird rights.  That averages out to $20,214,000 per year.

He would make the same amount of money in his first year with us or with a new team.  The difference is how much of an increase he will get each year.  With us he will get a lot more money.

Factor in state sales tax too or the lack there of for the 5 year contract.

That too. The "No State Tax" is a big thing too. He would lose a good percentage of his money by signing in New Jersey/Brooklyn or Los Angeles.

[The Magic Man]

I'm taking the signing of Earl as the beginning of the wheels turning. Otis was waiting for CP3 to drop to resign him, so hopefully that's a sign of other moves beginning that he was waiting to pull the trigger on as well. Possibly adding a bit more depth at Forward to move Ryan Anderson. We have around 20 players on our roster right now, I doubt we'll be rolling with all of them on Christmas, and that Otis doesn't have some sort of plan (not that it's a good one, but he must have some sort of something).

It scares me how quiet is is right now.

Please stop it.

[Idunkonyou2]

Also those saying Kobe will request a trade, stop it. He is under contract for the next 3 years and is owed about 90 million. He isn't going any where. Hell he could yell at his GM until his face is red about being traded and they would tell him, "Get back to practice boy.".

This is kind of interesting....I wonder what possible trades there would even be for Kobe? Would a team like NYC give up Amare for him? Would the Lakers take Dwight back and give up Kobe? You'd obviously need 1-2 pretty big contracts to match Kobe's, so you can't just ship out young talent alone, and the Lakers would have to prob pckg in Bynum or Pau if they wanted to go into rebuild mode - plus Kobe has a no-trade clause so he would obv have to approve the trade....so I wonder what potential trade partners there honestly even are? If Lakers wanted to go into full-rebuild they could package Kobe and Bynum to the Mavs for a bunch of their expirings, then amnesty Pau...and they'd have almost no salary on the books next year - could make a run at Dwight and Dwill.

They aren't trading Kobe and I have my doubts that these so called rumors of him asking for a trade will ever come true again. Maybe if they Lakers get swept again, Kobe could ask, but he would be denied since the last 2 years of his contract = almost 60 million.

[MagicFan41]

It is amazing how some of you can see the future.

I'll break it down for you from a players perspective. They are looking to get the longest, biggest contract available because there may be no tomorrow. There may be no next contract. Also agents get involved and want their share so the bigger the deal, the better for them.

That's obviously part of it....but if you think Dwight doesn't think he is going to be around in 4 yrs, you have another thing coming. It's all part of a calculation, lot of factors into it. Even if he thinks there's a 50% chance (which I ASSURE you, Dwight doesn't think it's anywhere near that low) he doesn't play in 4 yrs.....it's more like (1-5% chance)....you can factor in the expected value of that loss. Which is basically nothing. Calculate the more money he would be making in NYC or LA from endorsements, advertising, etc....and it's a wash basically. Does that mean Dwight is going to make a decision based on that 5th year, when he will already have like $200mil+ in the bank probably? For an extra $10-20 million without factoring in the increased revenues he will prob get there? Not a chance. Not if he thinks he has no chance of winning over the next 5 yrs here. Thanks for your "players perspective" though, when was the last time you played in the NBA or had $200mil in the bank?

Go and ask Roy if he thought he would still be around in 2012 and beyond. Go ask Grant Hill if he planned on spending 4 years of his career getting over ankle problems, that pretty much cost him one more huge payday.

Also players perspective is common sense. There may be no tomorrow because of the injury factor. Ask any player and they will tell you this. Of course later in their career it becomes all about winning, but that is when they have no choice but to take smaller contracts for obvious reasons. They get what they can, when they can, other wise they stand to lose millions over their career.

Right....you keep Dwight until the summer and see what decision he makes there, expert GM...

The world could end tomorrow too, go blow all of your money tonight, ok? Oh wait, that's not likely. What a stupid argument....so you name me two guys in the NBA whose careers (btw, didn't Grant Hill just get like $7 mil this year in his late 30s?...) ended early, great sample size there. I'll name you 500 whose didn't. Like I said, CAN it happen? Of course....is it likely? No, especially given Dwight's injury-proof past. Dwight is at the point, at least mentally, in his career where he wants to at least FEEL like he can win, and he doesn't think he can here. Financially he's going to be QUITE ok one way or the other....just like in the same way that the Heat guys took a little less money per year (which adds up over 5-6 years) in order to win and be together....would you have predicted THAT Ms Cleo?

[rcklsscognition]

Be funny if they just amnestied Kobe tonight. Traded for Dwight and picked up Deron in the offseason.

[jadewbj]

If contract length means nothing to the players why did they fight for longer contracts in the cba?

[MagicFan41]

And another counterpoint to your argument.....does the no state tax thing matter? Of course, it's a pretty substantial savings (millions) over the course of that contract. As is the cost of living in Orlando vs LA or NYC......so according to you, no player would ever want to go play in those cities because they're losing millions, maybe over $10 million over the course of the contract. What's the difference between that and potentially missing out on a 5th year in the rare instance of a career-ending injury? Absolutely nothing. It's the same thing.

[TheDarkKnight]

http://www.nba.com/video/channels/tnt_o ... howard.nba

Shaq agrees that Otis is saying stupid stuff that is making the situation worse

[Idunkonyou2]

Right....you keep Dwight until the summer and see what decision he makes there, expert GM...

The world could end tomorrow too, go blow all of your money tonight, ok? Oh wait, that's not likely. What a stupid argument....so you name me two guys in the NBA whose careers (btw, didn't Grant Hill just get like $7 mil this year in his late 30s?...) ended early, great sample size there. I'll name you 500 whose didn't. Like I said, CAN it happen? Of course....is it likely? No, especially given Dwight's injury-proof past. Dwight is at the point, at least mentally, in his career where he wants to at least FEEL like he can win, and he doesn't think he can here. Financially he's going to be QUITE ok one way or the other....just like in the same way that the Heat guys took a little less money per year (which adds up over 5-6 years) in order to win and be together....would you have predicted THAT Ms Cleo?

Hill would have gotten a Kobe like deal if he would been Mr. Triple Double in Orlando, instead of icing down his ankle or in a suit most of his 4 years in Orlando. It probably cost him 100 million easily.

There are many other cases. Mourning, Mashburn, McGrady, Arenas, Hardaway (Penny and TIm), etc. in fact most star players only get 2 big deals in their entire NBA career due to wear and tear that slows them down or injuries.

In fact, since you seem to know so much about the NBA, go find me just 5 star players who have gotten 3 long term max deals for their career in the last 20 years. I can only think of one right now and that would be Kobe and I may be wrong about him.

[MagicFan41]

If contract length means nothing to the players why did they fight for longer contracts in the cba?

LOLOLOL. Man, you guys have less foresight than Otis. Geez. You take one little thing and then create this blanket assumption that every player operates in every situation under that same emotion in a completely different situation. OF COURSE players WANT longer guaranteed contracts, who wouldn't? That's a fantastic OPTION to have. And might some of the guys who have $10 mil in the bank or so decide to play for a crappier team for more money? Of course. It's all about trade-off and utility curves for these guys. It's about what their PRIORITIES are. Some people, it's money, some people it's winning, some people it's family, some people it's where they want to live. Etc etc.

Example: would you LIKE the option of being able to work any extra hours that you wanted past your normal work hours at a high pay rate? Of course you would. Does that mean you're going to work 24/7/365 and sacrifice family time, friend time, free time, leisure time, increase your stress-level, sacrifice your health, etc etc etc?

It's a calculated decision that gets weighed on many fronts. There have been many, MANY instances of players taking less money (hell, DIRK did it in his last contract - so did Gil) for other reasons (to help teammates out, to bring in other players, etc etc). It's not ALWAYS about the money when you have that amount of money. These guys have egos about winning, and if they can take a paycut, relatively small in the grand scheme of things, to improve their situation, they often do.

[MagicFan41]

Right....you keep Dwight until the summer and see what decision he makes there, expert GM...

The world could end tomorrow too, go blow all of your money tonight, ok? Oh wait, that's not likely. What a stupid argument....so you name me two guys in the NBA whose careers (btw, didn't Grant Hill just get like $7 mil this year in his late 30s?...) ended early, great sample size there. I'll name you 500 whose didn't. Like I said, CAN it happen? Of course....is it likely? No, especially given Dwight's injury-proof past. Dwight is at the point, at least mentally, in his career where he wants to at least FEEL like he can win, and he doesn't think he can here. Financially he's going to be QUITE ok one way or the other....just like in the same way that the Heat guys took a little less money per year (which adds up over 5-6 years) in order to win and be together....would you have predicted THAT Ms Cleo?

Hill would have gotten a Kobe like deal if he would been Mr. Triple Double in Orlando, instead of icing down his ankle or in a suit most of his 4 years in Orlando. It probably cost him 100 million easily.

There are many other cases. Mourning, Mashburn, McGrady, Arenas, Hardaway (Penny and TIm), etc. in fact most star players only get 2 big deals in their entire NBA career due to wear and tear that slows them down or injuries.

In fact, since you seem to know so much about the NBA, go find me just 5 star players who have gotten 3 long term max deals for their career in the last 20 years. I can only think of one right now and that would be Kobe and I may be wrong about him.

HE WOULDN'T HAVE GOTTEN $100 MILLION IN HIS EXTRA YEAR!! IRRELEVANT!

OMG, IS THIS THAT TOUGH OF A CONCEPT? HIS OPPORTUNITY COST, AS WE ARE DISCUSSING IT, IS ONE MORE YEAR! - NOT 5 MORE YEARS - DWIGHT ISN'T TURNING DOWN 5 EXTRA YEARS. I DON'T KNOW WHAT YOUR JOB IS, BUT I HOPE IT ISN'T A LAWYER. THIS IS SIMPLE LOGIC.

[jadewbj]

I don't think Dwight is going to increase his sponsorships and deals by changing markets. Look at his endorsements now, he isnt hurting. In NY they will allways be second fiddle to the knicks. Just like the mets are to the yankees. If the press here is bothering him now, wait until he deals with the NY press. Hit a small ruff patch and see how the fans and press treat him then.

[MagicFan41]

I don't think Dwight is going to increase his sponsorships and deals by changing markets. Look at his endorsements now, he isnt hurting. In NY they will allways be second fiddle to the knicks. Just like the mets are to the yankees. If the press here is bothering him now, wait until he deals with the NY press. Hit a small ruff patch and see how the fans and press treat him then.

I'm not condoning his move to NYC. I hate NYC. Of course the fans will rip the s**t out of him if he has a bad game. I hope they do if he goes there. But to say that he won't have more exposure in NYC is ridiculous. Can he have a TON of global opportunities here, and does he? Yes of course. That doesn't mean that won't/can't increase in NYC, even on a small scale (which equates to millions a year).

[rcklsscognition]

Opportunity is bigger in NY, no question. Yes, with opportunity comes the opportunity to prosper and grow, or stumble and fail. A lot greater range of possibilities, including bad ones.

[MagicFan41]

Opportunity is bigger in NY, no question. Yes, with opportunity comes the opportunity to prosper and grow, or stumble and fail. A lot greater range of possibilities, including bad ones.

Nobody is arguing that. That's not what we are debating. In fact, I don't think Dwight can win with just him and Deron and nobody else. And I'd love to see millions of people twitter-bashing him in NYC, saying way worse things than they do here. Oh wait, there aren't any Nets fans. Nevermind

[Idunkonyou2]

Right....you keep Dwight until the summer and see what decision he makes there, expert GM...

The world could end tomorrow too, go blow all of your money tonight, ok? Oh wait, that's not likely. What a stupid argument....so you name me two guys in the NBA whose careers (btw, didn't Grant Hill just get like $7 mil this year in his late 30s?...) ended early, great sample size there. I'll name you 500 whose didn't. Like I said, CAN it happen? Of course....is it likely? No, especially given Dwight's injury-proof past. Dwight is at the point, at least mentally, in his career where he wants to at least FEEL like he can win, and he doesn't think he can here. Financially he's going to be QUITE ok one way or the other....just like in the same way that the Heat guys took a little less money per year (which adds up over 5-6 years) in order to win and be together....would you have predicted THAT Ms Cleo?

Hill would have gotten a Kobe like deal if he would been Mr. Triple Double in Orlando, instead of icing down his ankle or in a suit most of his 4 years in Orlando. It probably cost him 100 million easily.

There are many other cases. Mourning, Mashburn, McGrady, Arenas, Hardaway (Penny and TIm), etc. in fact most star players only get 2 big deals in their entire NBA career due to wear and tear that slows them down or injuries.

In fact, since you seem to know so much about the NBA, go find me just 5 star players who have gotten 3 long term max deals for their career in the last 20 years. I can only think of one right now and that would be Kobe and I may be wrong about him.

HE WOULDN'T HAVE GOTTEN $100 MILLION IN HIS EXTRA YEAR!! IRRELEVANT!

OMG, IS THIS THAT TOUGH OF A CONCEPT? HIS OPPORTUNITY COST, AS WE ARE DISCUSSING IT, IS ONE MORE YEAR! - NOT 5 MORE YEARS - DWIGHT ISN'T TURNING DOWN 5 EXTRA YEARS. I DON'T KNOW WHAT YOUR JOB IS, BUT I HOPE IT ISN'T A LAWYER. THIS IS SIMPLE LOGIC.

Yes we are discussing one year, but that one year would be the starting contract of a 3rd max deal that you say he would accept at the end of his 2nd max contract, making the extra year (5th) irrelevant. Come on now. I know you want to win your argument, but please stop playing stupid.

And thanks for side stepping my question when obviously there is no answer. In fact I can't think of one player who has gotten back to back to back max contracts in their career. Howard might be the first, but the odds aren't in his favor for the reasons I have stated, again the common sense reasons why 99% of the time the players go with the most money for the most years.

[Idunkonyou2]

Also Howard is already making a ton of money in endorsements. He was the 17th or 18th highest paid athlete last year in the WORLD. Changing his zip code isn't going to bring him more dollars IMO. Only thing that will help him there are championships.

[jadewbj]

I dont buy the bigger endorsements in nyc argument. Did amare or melo make a huge jump in exposure last year? Dwight is Already one of the largest athletes with the most endorsements. Just not buying it. Can someone show me financial proof of this not just "it's a fact there are"?

[SolidSnake008]

i'm getting tired of people talking about endorsements man like going to NY guarantees you'll become an icon it doesn't....I mean is Amare or Melo any bigger than they were on their old teams? Maybe not yet but i don't see any change...As far as Dwight is concerned i don't think he can get any bigger than he can now imo...He has Adidas....He has Gatorade...He has Mcdonalds...He was on the cover of Nba Live which millions of people bought...What more does he want? Burger King? Taco Bell? man i don't know....At this point all i care about is our team and winning...hopefully Dwight and the team can come together and we can go on one last run and if that can happen then it can end on a good note...

[Idunkonyou2]

i'm getting tired of people talking about endorsements man like going to NY guarantees you'll become an icon it doesn't....I mean is Amare or Melo any bigger than they were on their old teams? Maybe not yet but i don't see any change...As far as Dwight is concerned i don't think he can get any bigger than he can now imo...He has Adidas....He has Gatorade...He has Mcdonalds...He was on the cover of Nba Live which millions of people bought...What more does he want? Burger King? Taco Bell? man i don't know....At this point all i care about is our team and winning...hopefully Dwight and the team can come together and we can go on one last run and if that can happen then it can end on a good note...

Agreed.