How long before the Blue Jays make the Playoffs?

[torontoaces04]

The question is simple: How long before the Blue Jays make the Playoffs?

Lets assume that the two extra Wild Card spots are added as soon as next season.

Explain why you voted the way that you did, and what you think the Jays need to improve upon in order to make the Playoffs.

[overdose]

I like what we have as the core but if we arn't going to be big spenders in free agentcy then it's going to be a while before we pass anyone in the AL East. To many holes.

[dballislife]

when ever we get top of rotation players and a power bat, could b 2012 or any year, just dont waste ricky and jose's prime years

[Brinbe]

No-one can say for sure, but I think we'll be on the way to truly competing by 2013 and onward. Same trajectory I expect from the Raptors and Leafs.

[LittleOzzy]

Hard to put a year on it, but let's go with 2014.

I don't think it will be right away but I still have faith Rogers will clue in to the money they could make with a winning team.

They can't live off the 92' 93' Jays forever.

[CPT]

I think it almost depends more on the playoff format than anything else. 1 wild card spot added? Helps, but may still not be enough. 2 spots would really open things up though.

Moves will have to be made though. The internal development will be nice, but will it even be enough to level off Bautista's decline in the years to come?

I think they will have to give out at least one $100M contract to compete for a playoff spot, probably two, unless they give up a boatload of prospects for a guy worth that on the open market but under control with a smaller contract.

Darvish and Fielder might have been able to do it this year.

Based on what we have seen to this point, I don't think I can vote for anything but the last option, even if I think it might actually happen sooner.

[Wo1verine]

I tend to agree with you, CPT.

[Wo1verine]

when ever we get top of rotation players and a power bat, could b 2012 or any year, just dont waste ricky and jose's prime years

This is what i am worried about wasting Joeybats prime years, and theirs no reason to think that we wont waste those years at this point from what we've seen in the past! I almost want to trade him because i have no faith in Rogers to take that next step and spend in his prime years.

[satyr9]

Is making the playoffs the next goal or is simple meaningful games in August and September the next step?

I'll admit as things stand I don't give this Jays team a strong chance to finish in the playoffs next year. Let's just assume a BOS/NYY wins the East, a TEX/LAA wins the West, and there's no strong WC contender out of the central, then the losers of those two along with TB and TOR are in the hunt for (let's assume) two WC spots. I wouldn't put high odds on them pulling that off this year as constructed, but I don't think they're so far behind we can't have way more fun as fans this year as they stay within 4-5 games of that right through the summer. There's is a dramatic difference with one more team in the playoffs as the bar for competition is lowered by 5 wins pretty much. Sure there will be years where the 5th team might make it into the mid 90's, but that'll be rare.

Consider last year. On August 1st, the Jays were two games over .500 at 55-53. That was 11.5 behind BOS and 10.5 behind NYY for the WC, that was it; season's over. With one more team, they're 3.5 behind LAA instead. Now, there's still TB between them so a realist would say they're going to need a very good run to catch up, but instead of it being all but a mathematical certainty that we're done, it's going to get very entertaining and in that situation who knows what kind of moves the Jays make in deadline deals?

Also, I've read on this board numerous times lately that the Jays haven't improved since last season, but it's a total falsehood. They may not be vastly improved from the last day, but from opening day of last year to opening day of the next season, there's zero doubt in my mind this team is significantly better. Hill's PA's go to a better hitter in KJ. Rivera, Patterson, Nix, and Davis' PA's go to Lawrie and Rasmus (who hasn't proven anything yet in TOR, but I'd still risk him out there over Patterson and Davis' production). There are roughly 2000 PA's that went to pure junk filler, most of which were there to give room for players developing that are now here.

Likewise, in the rotation we're far ahead of where we were last year. For one, we can pick our 9th or 10th starter on a depth chart, all of whom are a year further along, and I'd still expect more than what we got out of JoJo last year. That competition will in turn drop a struggling Drabek equivalent in 2012 out sooner and avoid stretches of Mills and Perez in the rotation for a month or so each. I'd say there's a ton of room to replace up to 60 games started with improved pitching just on internal development. Sure, there's still a ton of youth that can falter, but there's so much more of it. McGuire and Hutch may not be ready, but they're probably Z.Stewart ready by June/July. That doesn't even take into account the below expectations performances out of everyone except Romero and Alvarez. If just a couple of Morrow, Cecil, and Drabek perform closer to their ceilings than their floors, the rotation is dramatically improved all on its own.

All this is only to say that if there's a 1-game WC playoff next year, then we get to have more fun watching baseball because this team is at least (and really at least) an 80ish win team. If Santos just takes away the sting of late inning collapses (even just emotionally and not statistically), that's another huge point for enjoyment of the season. If we all get beyond budgets and payrolls and woulda coulda shoulda's come opening day I think you'll find there will be plenty of reasons to enjoy watching this team next year and to continue to do so right through the season. Playoffs will be great when and if they happen, but give me a fun 162 instead of a season where I know by the ASB it's over and It'll be the first time in a decade or more any Jays fan had that experience.

One last, offseasons are good times to make improvements, but AA has been making moves 12 months a year. If he misses his targets between November and March, that doesn't mean the opportunity is lost. The seachange in expectations among Jays fans is remarkable and for me it's happily received, but temper it just a tiny bit is all.

[tsherkin]

When we make a significant move forward that wasn't an accident like Bautista, I'll start paying attention and believing the postseason is coming, especially now that the playoffs have expanded. But we've yet to do anything other than really move prospects around. AA's doing good work, and to some extent patience has made sense, but hells-and-damnit, it's been two decades and I'm getting impatient.

[CPT]

Satyr's point is a good one.

I'll actually be satisfied if the last two months of the season are meaningful, especially if the new wild card spot might only play one game anyway.

So I'm actually a bit more optimistic on that front, but I can't put a specific year on a playoff appearance until I see some tangible spending on the major league roster.

[baulderdash77]

It's not possible to make the playoffs under the new CBA on internal development alone. The league clamped down on the comp system, draft bonus and international signings. So the last market inefficiency has been closed down.

Our management team seems to think that they can "Moneyball" it but I think those days are over. The league has clued in and those market inefficiencies don't exist anymore

So I don't really see it happening unless an actual effort to compete happens.

[Parataxis]

when ever we get top of rotation players and a power bat, could b 2012 or any year, just dont waste ricky and jose's prime years

This. The year we decide to compete, we'll make the playoffs (or come close enough that we'll be playing meaningful games in September). If we keep on reseting in an eternal 5 year plan, we'll never make it consistently.

[ghuytro]

We might sneak into one of the 1 game wildcard playoffs in the next 5 years but until Rogers invests in the team, it's going to be 80 win seasons for the forseeable future unless we get really, really lucky with some of our prospects or manage to find another Bautista languishing on another team.

[LBJSeizedMyID]

Or maybe there is an assessment that this team has more question marks right now than sure things.

With the exception of Romero/Escobar/Bautista, we have a roster full of players that have upside, but not consistent performers.

[Geddy]

Playoffs= CurrentYear + 1

[bigdirty]

They need to get there before Bautista is spent. If they don't, it's going to be another long rebuild.

[WpgPage]

Voted 2014 I think a lot of the pieces are there and there's a ton of depth to work with in the lower minors AA just needs to go to work now developing guys to step into the everyday roster and trading prospects to fill in the gaps.

[torontoaces04]

I voted 2013, and that's assuming that the commitment to winning IS in fact there from Rogers.

I believe the team needs to fill the following holes before competing:


1st Baseman- Adam Lind isn't good enough, especially in the AL East
2nd Baseman- I don't believe Kelly Johnson is strong enough, both defensively and offensively, for us to make the playoffs.
Left Fielder- Assuming Colby Rasmus improves and reaches his potential, the Jays still have a huge hole in LF. Eric Thames isn't nearly good enough. His defense is ATROCIOUS.
2 Starting Pitchers- Ricky Romero, check. Everyone else is a question mark. There are no guarantees that Morrow, Cecil, Alvarez, Drabek, et al will be successful Starting Pitchers. Assuming 2 of those 4 guys pan-out, we're still 2 SP's short of a solid 5-man rotation.
2 Relief Pitchers- I'm not talking about just signing 2 guys to fill some spots in the bullpen. Anyone who followed the team last season saw how abysmal the bullpen was last season. There is a serious lack of quality arms in the Jays pen.


Though I am still extremely skeptical, I'm slowly trying to be a bit more of a glass half-full type of guy. We've waited this long, what's another couple of years.

[s e n s i]

i'd say about 9 months and change before that WC spot is clinched...