Set plays? Not so fast.

[mopper8]

"As a player, you say, 'Yeah, we could have done it.' No, we really couldn't," Wade said of the need for a season for the stars to learn the nuances of each others' games before freelancing. "We kind of had to get structured a little. It would have been too much one-on-one, because that's what we've done a lot in our careers, all of us. So it would have been a little too much. It wouldn't have good continuity for the team. It would have been a lot of bad shots.

"So he had to kind of control it last year."

Wade said, as much as anything, the timing was right, with an abbreviated training camp in advance of a lockout-compressed schedule that allows for minimal practice time.

"I think it's comforting, knowing that we have a short period of time to try to get in shape, try to get the new guys involved, trying to do all these things, but not having to worry about that as much," he said of learning and drilling through specific sets.

"Let's just play basketball. Let's use our talents. Let's use our IQs of the game just to play. So I think Spo has done an unbelievable job so far, in this training camp, of getting guys ready, but making them comfortable, as well."

[mopper8]

I'll just add that an earlier article had Spo quoted as saying they're working more on offense this training camp than they did last training camp, because the defensive principles are already in place. So I'm pretty sure this is right:

They started off last season running a motion offense, which is what this sounds like. They were talking about spacing and all that crap last season. As long as it works, I'm fine with it. PEACE.

But they abandoned it after 6 weeks because the players weren't comfortable enough, and took everything back to basics - conventional lineups, structured and simple offensive sets - and then slowly built everything up, so that by the end of the season they were back to unconventional lineups and using a wider variety of sets and more motion. There was a clear progression last year, and this is the logical end of that progression.

[HEATVols865]

Players realized that Spo sucks so they're doing their thing...

[heat in italy]

It worked with the 80's Lakers, because they had a PG named Magic Johnson. We have Mario Chalmers. It works when we play bad teams getting 50 points of fast breaks and dunks, but when the playoffs starts, and teams are clogging the paint and playing zone D, we will need a Offensive coach to put our talent in the right place.

[Tim_Hardawayy]

It worked with the 80's Lakers, because they had a PG named Magic Johnson. We have Mario Chalmers. It works when we play bad teams getting 50 points of fast breaks and dunks, but when the playoffs starts, and teams are clogging the paint and playing zone D, we will need a Offensive coach to put our talent in the right place.

Let's be clear, Mario is the "point guard", but LeBron and Dwyane will be the guys directing the offense.

That said, they are obviously no Magic, but I do believe their IQ can get underrated at times. Frankly, I want to see how this works.

Hate to have to use a Bulls comparison, but Michael and Scottie are always going to be the guys they're compared to. Well, the Bulls ran the triangle, which if you know anything about it, is basically a read and react type of system, not too different from what Spoelstra is insinuating they're going to be doing now. The triangle is different in that it has very specific principles to follow, but it serves the same purpose, letting the players decide the action without excessive playcalling.

[mopper8]

Players realized that Spo sucks so they're doing their thing...

So I think Spo has done an unbelievable job so far, in this training camp, of getting guys ready, but making them comfortable, as well.

[DWadeno3]

It worked with the 80's Lakers, because they had a PG named Magic Johnson. We have Mario Chalmers. It works when we play bad teams getting 50 points of fast breaks and dunks, but when the playoffs starts, and teams are clogging the paint and playing zone D, we will need a Offensive coach to put our talent in the right place.

Let's be clear, Mario is the "point guard", but LeBron and Dwyane will be the guys directing the offense.

That said, they are obviously no Magic, but I do believe their IQ can get underrated at times. Frankly, I want to see how this works.

Hate to have to use a Bulls comparison, but Michael and Scottie are always going to be the guys they're compared to. Well, the Bulls ran the triangle, which if you know anything about it, is basically a read and react type of system, not too different from what Spoelstra is insinuating they're going to be doing now. The triangle is different in that it has very specific principles to follow, but it serves the same purpose, letting the players decide the action without excessive playcalling.

Additionally, since heat in italy was mentioning the zone defense, most of the time you just overload and then look for the open man/attack the gaps. Against Dallas, everything appeared to be too forced, we didn't move the ball and the players enough around to keep the defense busy. With the basketball IQ of the Big Three and their good instincts, you should be able to open the zone up a little more and find ways to attack the basket. Ultimately, no play in the world can break a zone if you don't have a post player or shooters to stretch the defense anyways.

[heat in italy]

The problem is (comparison with the Bulls) that they always had a big Center that was able to knock shots from outside the paint. We have Joel ...
Harper was 20 point score for his hole carreer but accept the role of PG and play very well.
The other big problem, is that Rodman was one of the best defensive player of all time and probably (with Moses Malone) the best rebounder of all time. They had Kukoc of the bench, Steve Kerr was the best 3pt shooter of the league and I will not compare Phil with Spo. And they play the triangle with perfection, but everybody was involved and knew was happening.
I just dont want to see Wade ISO and since he is a great player, lets him create something. Next play, Lebron ISO and since he is a great player, lets him create something and then Bosh ,,,

[alucryts]

I'll just add that an earlier article had Spo quoted as saying they're working more on offense this training camp than they did last training camp, because the defensive principles are already in place. So I'm pretty sure this is right:

They started off last season running a motion offense, which is what this sounds like. They were talking about spacing and all that crap last season. As long as it works, I'm fine with it. PEACE.

But they abandoned it after 6 weeks because the players weren't comfortable enough, and took everything back to basics - conventional lineups, structured and simple offensive sets - and then slowly built everything up, so that by the end of the season they were back to unconventional lineups and using a wider variety of sets and more motion. There was a clear progression last year, and this is the logical end of that progression.

To add to the conversation, here is the Heat's team Offensive efficiency through the whole year (points per possession synergy):

LINK TO FULL IMAGE


Obviously playoffs started at game 82. This is a 15 game moving average.

[mopper8]

There's a clear trendline upwards during the regular season (I did a similar, crude analysis on the PC board and found a similar trend). Obviously that goes back down during the playoffs, but that's hardly surprising considering the defenses Miami played against in the postseseason. Regular season Drtg ranks: Celtics #1, Bulls #2, Sixers #7, Mavericks #8

edit: I'm not 100% sure, but that second dip seems to coincide with Wade/Lebron/Bosh all missing time midseason...

[alucryts]

There's a clear trendline upwards during the regular season (I did a similar, crude analysis on the PC board and found a similar trend). Obviously that goes back down during the playoffs, but that's hardly surprising considering the defenses Miami played against in the postseseason. Regular season Drtg ranks: Celtics #1, Bulls #2, Sixers #7, Mavericks #8

edit: I'm not 100% sure, but that second dip seems to coincide with Wade/Lebron/Bosh all missing time midseason...

Yes, I agree. It does seem there is the early season change and trend upward like you described before. Something around game 55 happened and slowed them temporarily. I wonder if it coincides with the missing time as well as coming back from injuries to that crazy hard stretch of games you guys had toward the end of the year. Either way you can see the clear trending upwards over the complete course of the year in general trends.

[Jan_Sobieski]

The **** is this.

This play is reminiscent of pre HIV Magic days when he ran free and rampant on an off the court. Like a Ashanti warrior crazed on Viagra.

[Pimpwerx]

Thanks alucryts and mopper8. That graph tells a lot. I feel more confident going forward then. Spo and co. are big number crunchers, so he must have seen something he liked. PEACE.

[DefenseWins]

LINK TO FULL IMAGE


Obviously playoffs started at game 82. This is a 15 game moving average.

What a disturbing graph.... a lot had to do with the leading scorer on the team becoming the lowest however. But still disturbing,

[GreenHat]

Players realized that Spo sucks so they're doing their thing...

So I think Spo has done an unbelievable job so far, in this training camp, of getting guys ready, but making them comfortable, as well.

Not that I agree with Brazilian (ever) but Wade answering an interview question that Spo has done a good job doesn't really mean much of anything. Its not like he is going to say "we actually aren't very prepared for the start of the season" before the season starts.

I'm sure there were similar quotes in fluff pieces last year even though we weren't prepared at the start of the season.

Basically I don't put a lot of stock into what players say to the media (eg "I'm in the best shape of my life!" implying a good season is on the way) and even less into what is said about the past when it is being retro-fitted into the narrative of the results (eg "Last year we weren't on the same page" when it wasn't the dominant narrative before the slow start)

There's a clear trendline upwards during the regular season (I did a similar, crude analysis on the PC board and found a similar trend). Obviously that goes back down during the playoffs, but that's hardly surprising considering the defenses Miami played against in the postseseason. Regular season Drtg ranks: Celtics #1, Bulls #2, Sixers #7, Mavericks #8

edit: I'm not 100% sure, but that second dip seems to coincide with Wade/Lebron/Bosh all missing time midseason...

The thing is that the Celtics and Bulls were MUCH better than the Mavericks defensively The distance between #2 and #8 was the almost the difference between #8 and #25 (Suns).

Since its a 15 game moving average wouldn't the slopes matter more to determine how we were doing in each series? (I'm not sure and that's not a rhetorical question, I'm asking you)

I think the Mavs series (where the line falls the steepest) was a combination of bad luck/variance, sub par play from the players but also some coaching mixed in.

Also that first dip doesn't make any sense. We started off average in the first 20 games, then all of a sudden tanked for 8 games and then started improving again? I'm guessing these fluctuations are more random than we think (other than major events like Lebron/Wade getting hurt or a specific playoff series) and that other teams will have similar ups and downs throughout the year. It does make it even more clear that something went wrong for us against the Mavs.

[mopper8]

I'm drunk and its late, so don't take this as gospel, but the slope of the graph ought to give you the acceleration, which would measure the size of the variation of the most recent data point from the average of the previous 14 data points.

I think that's what the slop would tell you. Not gonna try to unpack the graph right now, cause that would be pointless given how much I've had to drink. However, I do buy that there is a level of randomness going on, and also agree that there was a level of underperformance in the Finals. All that being said, the trendline through the regular season is clear and obvious IMO overall, and over that large a sample size ought to say something of decent value.

[GreenHat]

I'm drunk and its late, so don't take this as gospel, but the slope of the graph ought to give you the acceleration, which would measure the size of the variation of the most recent data point from the average of the previous 14 data points.

I think that's what the slop would tell you. Not gonna try to unpack the graph right now, cause that would be pointless given how much I've had to drink. However, I do buy that there is a level of randomness going on, and also agree that there was a level of underperformance in the Finals. All that being said, the trendline through the regular season is clear and obvious IMO overall, and over that large a sample size ought to say something of decent value.

I believe that's how I was interpreting it too (sharpest slope indicating greatest change between current game and last game getting kicked off of the sample, the 16th game)

My problems with the "clear and obvious" upward trend is what then caused the almost as dramatic early collapse which was even worse than our injuries? I think if we regress the graph towards the mean and put it on a larger scale the ups and downs would seem more random than they appear on this graph.

I tried looking for other teams to see how much oscillation there would be "normally" but I couldn't find them. Can anyone link to the graphs of other teams? Also I would like to see our defensive graph as well if anyone can do that. Thanks in advance.

[DefenseWins]

lol that downslide on the chart was similar to what happened in the preseason game today

[alucryts]

I tried looking for other teams to see how much oscillation there would be "normally" but I couldn't find them. Can anyone link to the graphs of other teams? Also I would like to see our defensive graph as well if anyone can do that. Thanks in advance.

You can't find them because I made them . I can only do offense unfortunately. Defense would take at least an hour per team. Offense only takes about 5 minutes a team.

Here's the Final four team trends all in one graph made to be as confusing as possible:
LINK TO FULL IMAGE


p.s. kindly ignore the ppg label and mentally switch it to ppp