Predict the Wizards' record in 2011-2012

[montestewart]

Sounds like something that take a lot of work and a good spread sheet. lol

I kind of assumed it was something like that. Some headers would have helped.
And why not got the extra mile and predict how many games the series will go.

sorry that was confusing. I'll add a header. I sort of mimic the playoff format I see in Basketball Reference and other places.

[dobrojim]

better re-check that math closg

but I am encouraged you put down 29 wins

Oops. Fixed.

Edit: I'm afraid I am going to have to revise my wins downward, I did not take into account the number of 2 and 3 games per weeks there are going to be. I don't trust Flip to manage the minutes to-as not exhaust the players.

actually I would expect our youth to be of some positive
value in that situation. Younger legs/bodies simply
recover more quickly because they are young.
As a not quite 55 year old distance runner, I
know this all too well.

If you really don't have faith in Flip, then the compressed
schedule is an advantage there as well. No coach will have
the optimal time to do what they would otherwise try in
terms of game prep. Therefore the better coaches will have
less opportunity to game-plan for the Wiz.

[Joe_Wiz]

I have to admit I have become increasingly ignorant about the team as time goes by -- I just haven't been following them carefully for over a year and have barely paid any attention to this offseason. Still, when has ignorance ever stopped a sports fan from expressing an opinion?

I think those of you who are predicting fewer than 20 wins are giving into cynicism -- you look cooler if you predict a lousy record and they outperform it, while you look foolish if you predict a better record than they actually achieve. I think 20-25 wins is about right, but in my ongoing quest for happiness via unrealistic optimism, I'm officially predicting a record of 34-32.

Blatche is better than many give him credit for, and he and the other young veterans (i.e., non-rookies) have another year of age and experience under their belts when they still haven't hit their peaks. And most of the starters and a number of the bench players have a year or more of experience playing together, so they don't have to learn to play together from scratch.

Did I mention I didn't watch any of the preseason games? Maybe ignorance is bliss, but I say 34-32.

[montestewart]

^
I know I looked really cool overestimating the Wizards number of wins by an average of 19 over the last three years.

[lupin]

I had wanted to play a little Price Is Right with everyone and bid for 1-65, but I suppose it's more about getting closest to the actual number and not just over or under the amount. In that case, I'll add a zero and make my prognostication 10-56.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I am going to forget the two preseason games. I think Wall playing out of control won't be the demise of the Wizards. I have no rational explanation why, but I will say as the biggest Wall hater on this site, I think Wall is better than his first two preseason games.

Much better.

I also think Washington will be much better this season IF FLIP SAUNDERS FINALLY ALLOWS MCGEE TO SHOOT THE BALL. All the Wizards have to do to be good is to find a way to get both Blatche and McGee to the free throw line 5 or 6 times each per game.

Wall is the key to the success or failure of this team. His turnovers kill the Wizards. All Wall has to do is slow down, stop turning it over so often, and feed his bigs more often.

Saunders needs to go if this team keeps shooting excessive jumpers.

For whatever reason, I am going to reverse my dire 12-win prediction.

I think the Wizards will go 26-40

I would rather go by numbers than by emotion. I will trust what I think the numbers indicate. As badly as Blatche gets on my nerves, when he goes to the boards and goes to the FT line a lot the Wizards win. I don't plan on him to improve at all but Flip letting McGee have the ball on offense is going to change the whole dynamic of this team.

They will still be bad, but not epically bad. The Wizards will show improvement.

If not, John Wall will go down as a HUGE bust. (I don't like him that much, but I don't think he's that bad.)

[Black Eyed Sooz]

22-44

I think we have enough talent to be a .400 team, but due to injuries we will end up at what would be high 20's in wins for an 82 game season.

McGee I think will continue to improve gradually, in the two steps forward, two steps back progression we have seen. He's gotten better in the offseason- you can see that in the post, at the FT line, and that he is playing a little bit more within himself. He will still have everyone shaking their heads trying to defend the pick and roll, though. If he stays healthy he will get himself a nice contract with the Wiz next offseason... either that or we will trade him for a DeMarcus Cousins or something like that.

I see him, Blatche, and Wall having similar stats over the season as they did post All star break last year, i.e. 12 pts 9 reb for McGee, 19 and 9 for Blatche, and 19 pts and 8-9 assists for Wall. Blatche is not going to be as bad as everyone thinks he is. I would've preferred trading him and then replacing him with someone more physical, but I actually believe he is starting to mature.

I'm still worried about Wall's durability- there were some reports right before camp opened that he had a nagging groin injury, and he still didn't look quite right in the exhibition games.

I like what I have seen from the rookies so far- hopefully Vesely be able to get healthy, if he can I would love to see what he can do in the starting lineup with Wall.

And if we do end up back in the lottery, I have a feeling that we may end up with a top 3 pick. I had that feeling before we ended up with Wall at #1, and I did not have it last year when we got screwed and ended up at #6.

[Dat2U]

22-44. An absolutely brutal start. Arguably we'll the worst team in the league for the first half of the season or so. I'm thinking something along the lines of 5-25 or so. This will be followed by a typical late season, good feel run with us playing near to or. 500 ball over the last 20+ games or so.

Wall will start off out of sorts and disappoint many at first but will have a full fledged breakout over the 2nd half of the year.

McGee will have another year of incremental improvement with some incredible performances mixed in with constant reminders of his immaturity and low b-ball IQ.

Blatche will put up solid numbers on improved efficiency with a continued inconsistent effort on both ends of the court. However, once again he'll have one of those "WTF was he thinking moments" off the court which will lead the Wizards to probably dump him next offseason for chump change.

With the rest of the roster, there will be more questions than answers. Nick is a goner, he knows it and he'll be playing out the string. ;I don't see any of the other young guys making a real positive impact. Inconsistency will be the key word for most of them.

Crawford & Seraphin's value may drop in the eyes of some. Ves & Singleton will have some moments but neither will make a real impact in their first year.

[closg00]

22-44. An absolutely brutal start. Arguably we'll the worst team in the league for the first half of the season or so. I'm thinking something along the lines of 5-25 or so. This will be followed by a typical late season, good feel run with us playing near to or. 500 ball over the last 20+ games or so.

Wall will start off out of sorts and disappoint many at first but will have a full fledged breakout over the 2nd half of the year.

McGee will have another year of incremental improvement with some incredible performances mixed in with constant reminders of his immaturity and low b-ball IQ.

Blatche will put up solid numbers on improved efficiency with a continued inconsistent effort on both ends of the court. However, once again he'll have one of those "WTF was he thinking moments" off the court which will lead the Wizards to probably dump him next offseason for chump change.

With the rest of the roster, there will be more questions than answers. Nick is a goner, he knows it and he'll be playing out the string. ;I don't see any of the other young guys making a real positive impact. Inconsistency will be the key word for most of them.

Crawford & Seraphin's value may drop in the eyes of some. Ves & Singleton will have some moments but neither will make a real impact in their first year.

So do you think the re-build really begins with the next draft and FA? Is 2012 when we finally begin to
surround Wall with offensive help? With Young probably gone next year, it will pretty-much wipe our slate clean for re-building the offensive side of this club.

[hands11]

I have to admit I have become increasingly ignorant about the team as time goes by -- I just haven't been following them carefully for over a year and have barely paid any attention to this offseason. Still, when has ignorance ever stopped a sports fan from expressing an opinion?

I think those of you who are predicting fewer than 20 wins are giving into cynicism -- you look cooler if you predict a lousy record and they outperform it, while you look foolish if you predict a better record than they actually achieve. I think 20-25 wins is about right, but in my ongoing quest for happiness via unrealistic optimism, I'm officially predicting a record of 34-32.

Blatche is better than many give him credit for, and he and the other young veterans (i.e., non-rookies) have another year of age and experience under their belts when they still haven't hit their peaks. And most of the starters and a number of the bench players have a year or more of experience playing together, so they don't have to learn to play together from scratch.

Did I mention I didn't watch any of the preseason games? Maybe ignorance is bliss, but I say 34-32.

Pretty much nails it. They could be that good. But expectation for several players would need to happen and they still do need to gel. That is what makes predicting a higher win total harder. I think they will finish the season better then they start and we will start to see hope of how the team can play moving forward. But personally, I'm not sold on Wall just yet. I mean that in terms of him being able to lead the team. I know he has speed, but I want more from a PG. He has to learn to run the team and use pace. That and when he needs to score and how. From what I have seen so far, I don't know if he will get into that D Ross, CP, Kidd, Nash level or running a team. Seems more like a Gil /AI type to me and that concerns me. He really needs to round out his game and forget about the flash. My advice for Wall, ditch the Doggie and copy the style of KD. Just not sold he is the franchise guy. This team could end up being Vesleys team before it is all said and done.

[Dat2U]

So do you think the re-build really begins with the next draft and FA? Is 2012 when we finally begin to
surround Wall with offensive help? With Young probably gone next year, it will pretty-much wipe our slate clean for re-building the offensive side of this club.

Forget FA. I don't see us being a participant again. It looks like Leonsis is focused on the long term rebuild. Only thing I see us likely doing next year is re-signing Javale.

It's all about the 2012 draft. That's were we'll have to find the second difference maker to pair with Wall, otherwise it gets real sketchy after that. As far as rebuilding the offensive side of this club. Who cares? It's about adding stars, not scorers.

[Dat2U]

But personally, I'm not sold on Wall just yet. I mean that in terms of him being able to lead the team. I know he has speed, but I want more from a PG. He has to learn to run the team and use pace. That and when he needs to score and how. From what I have seen so far, I don't know if he will get into that D Ross, CP, Kidd, Nash level or running a team. Seems more like a Gil /AI type to me and that concerns me. He really needs to round out his game and forget about the flash. My advice for Wall, ditch the Doggie and copy the style of KD. Just not sold he is the franchise guy. This team could end up being Vesleys team before it is all said and done.

Dude your talking out of your ass. What exactly has Wall done, or not done to indicate he's shooting guard masquerading as a PG? He's a 21 yr old PG learning on the job coming off one of the most impressive rookie campaigns for a PG ever. What more do you want? Is it because he didn't wow you in two preseason games after about a week of training camp? Really?

And I'm not seeing the show over substance your alluding to either. Because he danced before a game or at an all-star game? Does that make him less of player in your eyes?

And the whole "this could end up being Vesley's team" statement is outright laughable. Vesley's best case scenario is as a role player on a winning team. Maybe you think a future frontline of Vesley & Seraphin is something to build upon (you've mentioned more than once how Seraphin would likely steal McGee's starting role) but frankly I'd question whether that would be a starting quality front line in the Spain ACB League. And if this does become Vesley's team then Lord help us.

[Nivek]

My prediction: 18 wins.

[pancakes3]

Dude your talking out of your ass...

i don't agree entirely with hands but i do see where he's coming from. It probably has a lot to do with the rose comparisons. look at what Rose did to the lakers last night. that was unbelievable. time winding down, no timeout, cross fisher up and get funneled inside into help in the form of gasol and he floats it right over him - after adjusting and pulling his shot launch to the right. it was just phenomenal. if it was wall in that situation, i would think he would have done what kobe did 1 possession later - bury his head and bull his way to the rim only to get it swatted at by 3 different guys.

knowing when to hold 'em and when to fold 'em is skill that wall just doesn't have and that's worrisome. i'm not saying he's doomed but that is a deep fundamental flaw in his game.

[Nivek]

Rose didn't get funneled anywhere. He got to the middle, which is exactly where he wanted to be. He made a tough shot over Gasol, but it was the shot he wanted. Kobe is the one who got funneled -- pushed baseline into lots of help.

And by the way, Kobe's clutch reputation is so preposterously overblown it's ridiculous. I was disappointed to see the broadcast team break out that 19 game-winning baskets since 2001 stat because of how incredibly misleading it is. Henry Abbott at TrueHoop has chronicled Kobe's incredible failure rate in those situations.

[wermolwermol777]

Ugh i can't believe there are so few people more optimistic than me. Can't really say that the preseason games made me feel good about my prediction in any way, but not going to change it either. Can't wait to finally have some basketball to follow again!

[Benjammin]

17 wins. Going optimistic is rarely the right way to go.

[closg00]

I’m going with 16-50.

I’ve gone back through the thread to summarize the picks. Here’s where (I think) we stand thus far:

32-34 nuposse04

30-36 pancakes3, FAH1223

28-38 wermolwermol777, jimij
27-39 7-Day Dray, DallasShalDune
26-40 CaPtaiN eYeSaNo
25-41 dandridge 10
24-42 gesa2, fishercob
23-43 miller31time, hands11, AnotherFinn
22-44 TGW, daSwami
21-45 Nigel Tugnel, MF23
20-46 Higga, MJG, toughjuice03, Halcyon
19-47 mohammed10
18-48 zaRdsAndZeRos, FreeBalling, The Consiglieri
17-49 tontoz, floydfan29, willbcocks
16-50 Ruzious, hermitkid, verbal8, fugop, bulletproof_32
15-51 TheBigThree, Jay81, jmrosenth
14-52 Zonkerbl

12-54 sashae, no D in Hibachi, Chocolate City Jordanaire
11-55 Induveca
10-56 LyricalRico

Roughly one-more hour left to get your predictions in. Proof, can you give us the final tally before the lock-down?

I had predicted 29, but with the b2b and 3 game per weeks on the schedule, I'm afraid I have revise downward into the teens. Put me down for 19 wins.

[tkunit]

22 wins, it going to be a wild season

[greendale]

Middle of the first quarter of game one is done so I guess I am ineligible. However, I'm thinking the Wizards are better than alot believe -- I'm looking for 29 victories.