Wizards Winning Trends from Last Season

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Looking at game logs from certain players here's what I've come up with so far:

John Wall
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... elog/2011/

Sorting his game logs in various ways,

1. The Wizards won more often when John Wall attempted one or less three-point shots.
Wizards were 6-24 when Wall shot 2 or more threes ----> 0.200
Wizards were 13-26 when Wall shot 1 or 0 threes ------> 0.333

2. The Wizards won much more Wall grabbed 6 or more rebounds.
Wizards were 10-11 when Wall grabbed 6 or more rebounds---> 0.476 (39-win pace)
Wizards were 9-39 when Wall grabbed 5 or less rebounds ----> 0.083 (7-win pace)
They were over 5 times more likely to win when Wall boarded six or more.

3. The Wizards won much more when Wall had two or fewer turnovers.
When Wall had 2 or less turnovers the Wizards were 9-12 --> 0.429 (35-win pace)
When Wall had 3 or more turnovers the Wizards were 10-38---> 0.208 (17-win pace)
Washington won twice as often when Wall had 2 or fewer Wall turnovers.

4. When Wall played very efficiently the Wizards were a winning team.
When Wall had Game Score of 18.2 or better: 9-4----> 0.692 (57-win pace)
When Wall had Game Score of 18.1 or less: 10-46----> 0.179 (15-win pace)

When Wall put up near-superstar numbers this team won at a high-playoff seed rate. Losses were to LAL, MIA, ATL and LAC.

CONCLUSIONS
I don't know if it makes sense to tell a PG to rebound, but that seems to be a huge factor in Wall contributing to the Wizards wins. Keeping his three-point attempts at a minimum should also be goals. Another stat i didn't put up is that the more Wall scored, the better the chances were for Wizards wins. Wall needs to attack the paint and follow his own shots, but he's got to be careful not to turn it over. Whatever it takes to recreate the tempo and lineups for Wall's 13-best games, that's what Washington needs to strive for.

[orangeparka]

Correlation =/= Causation

But obviously, if Wall puts up star numbers and is efficient, the Wizards have a much higher chance of winning.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Is it obvious that a coach should tell Wall: (1) Don't shoot the three more than once or twice a game. (2) Do crash the boards, and try your best to get six rebounds or more. (3) SLOW DOWN and play error-free as possible basketball to the tune of 2 or less turnovers if you want to help your team win?

orangeparka, was any of this obvious before or has my attempt to show something caused you to correlate my effort with fruitless frivolity?

I mean, those are pretty specific goals that anybody can learn looking at a box score. Wall might not be able to cut down on the mistakes but he can definitely rebound hard and stop jacking threes (unless he's hitting threes or the team is behind).

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Andray Blatche
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... elog/2011/

1. When Blatche played well or Flip left him in games 38:07 or more, Washington had a winning record.

When Blatche played 38:07 or more, Washington went 10-9
When Blatche played 38.06 or less, Washington went 11-55

Are these the only games Blatche played well or was it the time he remained on the court? See next.

2. When Blatche had his most efficient games the Wizards won more often.

When Blatche had a Game Score of 17.0 or better, Washington went 10-6
When Blatche had a Game Score of 16.9 or worse, Washington went 11-58

Of course we know that consistency wasn't always there with Blatche, but there are some areas I think he can target to become more consistent.

3. For Blatche the help the Wizards win, his magic number was 6 free throw attempts

When Blatche attempted 6 or more free throws, Washington went 13-11
When Blatche attempted 5 or less free throws, Washington went 8-53

4. Blatche helped most when he achieved 10 or more rebounds.

When Blatche had 10 rebounds or more, Washington was 9-9
When Blatche had 9 rebounds or less, Washington was 12-55

5. Blatche also helped when he followed his own shot or otherwise hit the offensive glass.

When Blatche had 4 offensive rebounds or more, Washington was 10-9
When Blatche had 3 offensive rebounds or less, Washington was 11-55

6. It also helped when Andray passed for assists. Three was his magic number

When Blatche had 3 or more assists, Washington went 11-13
When Blatche had 2 or less assists, Washington went 10-51


CONCLUSIONS
When eyeballing a Wizards box score, if Andray Blatche attempted 6 or more free throws and had 10 or more rebounds, chances are the Wizards won. He should have those as benchmarks goals IMO. That and 4 offensive boards. His shot might not always fall, but he needs to get to the line and even learn to flop to do so. Also, he's got to box out. I would love to see Blatche attempt to pad his stats by passing off to guys like Singleton and Vesely for dunks.

I don't really understand correlation and causation well enough to go all Dean Oliver, or Kevin Broom, or Kevin Pelton, or Jason Kubatko; but i do like the Wizards and I do think numbers matter a whole lot. The margin between winning and losing comes down to things like effective field goal percentage, rebound and turnover differentials, and assists vs turnovers. The Wizards DO have some talented players.

So far, I've just done my best to look at Wall and Blatche to see where their strengths can help the team win.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

(EDITED: This post is somewhat in error--see page two in response to w dumseld)

Nick Young
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... gni01.html

Guess what?
I couldn't find ANYTHING to note. Nick's huge scoring nights didn't seem to make a difference. Nor did his free throw attempts. Nor did assists. Nor did rebounds. I was actually shocked.

CONCLUSION
The one-year qualifying offer was a very good move or the Wizards could have parted ways with Nick.

I know it looks like the team won't win without jump shooting or anybody who can make shots. However, I can't see where Nick made that big of a difference on wins or losses. I still think he's a very good dude and a nice scorer. I really wish the Wizards would trade him to a team like San Antonio or another contending team; like they did Stevenson, Haywood, and Butler last season. Nick could help there.

Does anybody see something I missed on Young?

[Nivek]

Your findings on Young don't surprise me. He's not a difference-maker.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Javale McGee
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... elog/2011/

1. When McGee played well enough or Flip left him in 35+ minutes, the Wizards won more games.

When McGee played 35 or more minutes, Washington was 8-6
When McGee played 34:59 or less minutes, Washington was 15-50

Also, when McGee played 30+ minutes, Washington was 13-14
Also, when McGee played 29:59 or less, Washington was 10-42

I noticed a couple subpar games for McGee where Flip left him in over 30 anyway and the Wizards won.

2. It seems more blocks from McGee helped more than good (not great) rebounding

When McGee had 3+ blocked shots, the Wizards went 16-15
When McGee had 2 or less blocks, the Wizards went 7-41

On great rebounding nights from Mcgee, the Wizards dominated.

With McGee having 17 or more rebounds, Washington went 3-2
But with McGee grabbing (good) 10 or more rebounds (including above) Wasihington went just 9-19.

I was shocked to see this. But I have thought McGee knows better than Flip what his game is. Many think I'm wrong here, but I think Flip doesn't fully appreciate blocked shots and getting back in transition. McGee is a game changer when he's allowed to roam and block shots.

3. When Javale shot 5 or more free throws, the Wizards won more often.

When McGee shot 5+ free throws, Washington went 10-9
When McGee shot 4 or less free throws, Washington went 13-47

I'm going to change my win predictions for the Wizards, because I think Flip finally sees the light and is going to let Javale carry some of the offense. When McGee gets to the line a lot, the Wizards are a much, much tougher team. He opens things up for Blatche and Wall as well.

4. Last season, all it took was 2 assists from McGee to make a huge difference.

When Javale had 2 or more assists, Washington went 6-3
When McGee had 1 or less assists, Washington went 17-53

CONCLUSIONS
I don't know if anyone else finds this interesting, and I gotta admit this is way too much time looking at this stuff. What I found is McGee should shoot for 3 blocks, 2 assists, and at least 5 free throw attempts. He needs to stay focused to stay on the court 35 minutes. Flip Saunders has to stop insisting that McGee does not shoot the ball. Flip needs to stop worrying so much about McGee's rebounds and he needs to appreciate how much blocked shots can change the game.

Other things I think could develop: I really like Vesely's passing. I think Vesely to McGee could result in a lot of points or free throw attempts. Vice versa, McGee has a not just Vesely but now Singleton to look to on lobs. Javale and Andray don't often play a two man game, but I think this year McGee as a passer could have a HUGE impact on the Wizards.

Looking at just how much McGee can help this team, I think I'm going to up my win predictions. Seems to me he needs more minutes and he'll get them this season. Javale has improved over this summer.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

So far what I'm leaning toward believing is the Wizards need to keep Wall, McGee, and even Blatche; unless they get a superior player for Blatche.

I think the real problems with the Wizards are inexperience and coaching emphasis. Guards handle the ball too often. Bigs don't make crisp passes. Blatche is not benched when he doesn't rebound. Wall is not benched enough for playing out of control or settling for too many low percentage shots. Obviously, Saunders is not working with seasoned veterans or even good NBA players. He's got talented youth.

What I want to see is more shots from McGee and even more in the paint from Blatche. Less hero ball from John Wall will help. He's got to be effective at something less than warp speed. Javale McGee needs to also slow down and become comfortable not just getting more shots, but more importantly, sharing the basketball.

I see reasons to be optimistic that McGee will improve and so will Wall. Blatche, I think can rebound much better if he's not the offensive focal point all the time. That's the problem for this team.

[Ruzious]

It's a team game affected by a million factors from individuals on both teams. One player isn't going to make the difference unless that player is on a level so far above everyone else. My point is - it's much more likely that the team stats tell you a lot more than the individual stats as far as what the Wiz need to do to win. Looking at the individuals is an interesting exercise, but imo - it tells you nothing - because there are just too many factors that 1 individual player has no control over.

[nate33]

I don't consider most of these stats to be all that revealing. Obviously, when players play more efficiently, the team is more likely to win. Wall's rebounding data isn't a surprise either. If the opponent misses more shots, particularly ones with long rebounds, Wall will get more rebounds and start more fast breaks.

Likewise, the minutes numbers aren't so revealing. Blatche and McGee play more when they're doing well and we're winning. They play less when they stink or when games are out of hand and it's time to develop Booker and Seraphin.

I think the Blatche assist data and the McGee block shots data are the most interesting. There may be something useful in there.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Ruzious, I totally disagree.

A team needs an identity. Within a team, players need clearly defined roles. Everyone needs to know their job or their contribution to the team, less they have an identity crisis.

On your job, if there are performance goals that gives you something to shoot for. If you are in sales, you know what will get you a bonus by the number of sales you generate. If you are an educator, in this era of No Child Left Behind, you know that your students' collective assessment scores reflect on your class and your school.

If you are on the Wizards and you are these players, here are some goals:

Wall--6 rebounds, 2 or less turnovers, 1 or less 3-Pt FG attempt. He averaged 4.6 rebounds per-36 last season and could at least improve that to well over 5, since he grew and is stronger.

Blatche--10 rebounds, 3 assists, 6 free throw attempts. Andray has been in the league 7 seasons. At this point he needs to know he's doing well with 5 rebounds and 3 free throw attempts per half. Doesn't matter if his shot is not dropping, it's how hard is he working inside. That's how he can help.

McGee--More than anyone else, Saunders needs to encourage Javale to block shots and get FTAs. Telling a guy NOT TO SHOOT and TO CONCENTRATE ON REBOUNDS and STYLE OVER SUBSTANCE is crap coaching. Javale helps when he blocks 3 or more shots, goes to the line 5 or more times, stays on the court 30 minutes, and when he passes for 2 assists. McGee is goal-oriented and responded to rebounding better and turning it over less. This season, stay on the court, get to the line, and throw a couple nice passes each game.

I think a lot of folks are thrown off by numbers, but one thing I've noticed is over the years numbers have been the only way I could tell guys like Faried would be great and not good.

I think the Wizards are much better than terrible if Flip coaches those three players to their potentials, and if they reach those benchmarks.

I know it's a team game, but I think guys need to be trying to get those numbers because they benefit the team. Blatche simply needs to work on up-and-unders and step-through moves to draw fouls. He needs to lose the fade aways. He also cannot have games with 5 rebounds or less when he's played 30 minutes. McGee is really not helping the team when he's not involved in the offense and not blocking shots. If Javale's drawn away from the basket he's not going to help the team if he doesn't get to the rim on offense.

So Ruz, my interesting exercise meant a lot to me. I respect but totally disagree with your opinion.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I don't consider most of these stats to be all that revealing. Obviously, when players play more efficiently, the team is more likely to win. Wall's rebounding data isn't a surprise either. If the opponent misses more shots, particularly ones with long rebounds, Wall will get more rebounds and start more fast breaks.

Likewise, the minutes numbers aren't so revealing. Blatche and McGee play more when they're doing well and we're winning. They play less when they stink or when games are out of hand and it's time to develop Booker and Seraphin.

I think the Blatche assist data and the McGee block shots data are the most interesting. There may be something useful in there.

What about the free throw attempts for both players?

The real problem with the Wizards IMO is guards jack too many shots. When the bigs actually got to the line they won games.

I agree with you the assists for Blatche and the blocks for McGee are most interesting. Without even looking at the data, I would guess games where Arenas and/or Hinrich were PG, Andray had more assists. I get the feeling Wall as a young rookie dominated the rock and tried to do too much with it.

Things work better with floor balance and bigs being allowed to pass to cutters in addition to having good guard play. I am happy with Vesely's passing and think he could make a difference. I actually think less John Wall the passer and more him scoring and going after rebounds like Jason Kidd will be better for the Wizards.

[nate33]

I don't consider most of these stats to be all that revealing. Obviously, when players play more efficiently, the team is more likely to win. Wall's rebounding data isn't a surprise either. If the opponent misses more shots, particularly ones with long rebounds, Wall will get more rebounds and start more fast breaks.

Likewise, the minutes numbers aren't so revealing. Blatche and McGee play more when they're doing well and we're winning. They play less when they stink or when games are out of hand and it's time to develop Booker and Seraphin.

I think the Blatche assist data and the McGee block shots data are the most interesting. There may be something useful in there.

What about the free throw attempts for both players?

I think that's part of efficiency. Getting to the free throw line is an efficient way of scoring. Obviously, when they get to the line more, it'll help the team win. FTA's are one of Dean Oliver's Four Factors

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Where this information is useful is when you scout opponents' tendencies.

Playing floor-bound bigs, like the Nets have minus Brook Lopez; a winning game plan would be to get Blatche or McGee guarded by Petro, Okur, Humphries, or Jordan Williams inside with no help from guards doubling down. Petro fouls a lot. The Wizards need to go inside early to get NJ in foul trouble and to get their rebounders out of the game.

Things don't always go as planned, but the plan should be to get Blatche and McGee going early. Later, the big guys need to kick the ball out.

[Illuminaire]

Thanks for taking the time to look up all this stuff, CCJ.

My 2 cents is to be cautious about drawing direct conclusions, because all of these hard numbers are still one step removed from any actual causation. It's not Wall getting six rebounds that makes us win... there's something else going on there. Uncovering the reasons *why* those numbers show up when we're winning is the harder, but ultimately more useful, part of stat diving.

I do think the assist numbers stand out. It seems like when the Wiz are using actual ball movement, we're a much better team.

Question: Can you cross reference the high-block games with opponents' eFG%? I'm curious to see if McGee's block parties dissuade teams from taking shots in the paint, despite the seemingly endless parade of easy layups he gives up to pump fakes.

[Illuminaire]

Additionally:

I very much like the idea of setting milestones that young players can easily grasp and shoot for. I would want to investigate those numbers more thoroughly before assigning them, though. For instance, maybe the games where Wall gets six+ boards all happen not because he's fighting for rebounds or boxing out, but because we're making opponents miss more often when taking 3-point shots. In that case, the 'winning number' isn't what it seems at first glance, and telling Wall to go get more rebounds might actually hurt what is really helping the team, better rotations and getting a hand in a shooter's face.

(Just speculating, hehe)

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Thanks for taking the time to look up all this stuff, CCJ.

My 2 cents is to be cautious about drawing direct conclusions, because all of these hard numbers are still one step removed from any actual causation. It's not Wall getting six rebounds that makes us win... there's something else going on there. Uncovering the reasons *why* those numbers show up when we're winning is the harder, but ultimately more useful, part of stat diving.

I do think the assist numbers stand out. It seems like when the Wiz are using actual ball movement, we're a much better team.

Question: Can you cross reference the high-block games with opponents' eFG%? I'm curious to see if McGee's block parties dissuade teams from taking shots in the paint, despite the seemingly endless parade of easy layups he gives up to pump fakes.

Thank my ex-wife for grief that made most of Christmas eve sleepless, Illuminaire. It was either have my worst mistakes in life continue to flash before my eyes or have fun with numbers.

I'm admittedly in a somewhat of a sleep-deprived stupor. I probably shouldn't have drawn conclusions, just noted the trends. Good points, Illuminaire. It will likely be a whole lot more worthwhile to look into the why and not just the what I have seen so far.

The one thing nate and you picked up on is ball movement and assists. doclinkin's probably somewhere having his priorities right and not wasting too much time on the Internet, but he comes to mind right away. I think he can probably explain Flip's offense, the number of midrange and long two-point field goal attempts, and more importantly, why Flip's offense is guard-dominant.

My inclination is to jump to conclusions and say keep the players, fire this coach, and let the big man get involved in the passing game. Wall is a great distributor but he's a young and mistake-prone. The sooner he passes the ball inside, and the more people touch the ball, and the more bigs actually hit cutters inside; the more the Wizards will win.

I would blame everything on Flip. (That's why I think doc or Nivek or nate and the rest of you guys would be better off figuring this out).

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Additionally:

I very much like the idea of setting milestones that young players can easily grasp and shoot for. I would want to investigate those numbers more thoroughly before assigning them, though. For instance, maybe the games where Wall gets six+ boards all happen not because he's fighting for rebounds or boxing out, but because we're making opponents miss more often when taking 3-point shots. In that case, the 'winning number' isn't what it seems at first glance, and telling Wall to go get more rebounds might actually hurt what is really helping the team, better rotations and getting a hand in a shooter's face.

(Just speculating, hehe)

Ways to improve Wall's rebound totals without compromising team success: First, always attempt to follow your own shots inside and your own free throw attempts. Second, do put a hand in a shooter's face but be sure to block out that shooter. Third, shoot less threes.

I wouldn't necessarily set rebounds as a goal for Wall but I would definitely have him shoot for 2 and at most 3 turnovers.

The numbers that I think Wall should note is that his assists didn't put the Wizards over the top. Racking up huge assists with high turnovers is sort of like an NFL QB who throws a lot of TDs but also a lot of INTs. Sometimes, less is better. Wall can really help by being an efficient scorer and a guard who is not afraid to attack the boards. The less he turns it over the better.

The milestone for Wall would be less turnovers and less three-point attempts for the time being.

[Ruzious]

Ruzious, I totally disagree.

A team needs an identity. Within a team, players need clearly defined roles. Everyone needs to know their job or their contribution to the team, less they have an identity crisis.

On your job, if there are performance goals that gives you something to shoot for. If you are in sales, you know what will get you a bonus by the number of sales you generate. If you are an educator, in this era of No Child Left Behind, you know that your students' collective assessment scores reflect on your class and your school.

If you are on the Wizards and you are these players, here are some goals:

Wall--6 rebounds, 2 or less turnovers, 1 or less 3-Pt FG attempt. He averaged 4.6 rebounds per-36 last season and could at least improve that to well over 5, since he grew and is stronger.

Blatche--10 rebounds, 3 assists, 6 free throw attempts. Andray has been in the league 7 seasons. At this point he needs to know he's doing well with 5 rebounds and 3 free throw attempts per half. Doesn't matter if his shot is not dropping, it's how hard is he working inside. That's how he can help.

McGee--More than anyone else, Saunders needs to encourage Javale to block shots and get FTAs. Telling a guy NOT TO SHOOT and TO CONCENTRATE ON REBOUNDS and STYLE OVER SUBSTANCE is crap coaching. Javale helps when he blocks 3 or more shots, goes to the line 5 or more times, stays on the court 30 minutes, and when he passes for 2 assists. McGee is goal-oriented and responded to rebounding better and turning it over less. This season, stay on the court, get to the line, and throw a couple nice passes each game.

I think a lot of folks are thrown off by numbers, but one thing I've noticed is over the years numbers have been the only way I could tell guys like Faried would be great and not good.

I think the Wizards are much better than terrible if Flip coaches those three players to their potentials, and if they reach those benchmarks.

I know it's a team game, but I think guys need to be trying to get those numbers because they benefit the team. Blatche simply needs to work on up-and-unders and step-through moves to draw fouls. He needs to lose the fade aways. He also cannot have games with 5 rebounds or less when he's played 30 minutes. McGee is really not helping the team when he's not involved in the offense and not blocking shots. If Javale's drawn away from the basket he's not going to help the team if he doesn't get to the rim on offense.

So Ruz, my interesting exercise meant a lot to me. I respect but totally disagree with your opinion.

And I think when you tell a player to put their focus on stats, you are being extremely counter-productive. Obviously, players are instructed as to what things are good to do and what things are bad to do. I'm not saying - in any way, shape, or form - that coaches and assistants of many types shouldn't use numbers to evaluate and improve.

I think we've seen up close and first hand guys like Blatche and McGee try for triple doubles - and embarrassing themselves and the team in the process. I don't want them checking with the stats guy every few minutes to give them an update on how many points and blocks and rebounds they need to do to reach their goals for the day - so they can know when it's okay for them to lolligag for the rest of the game.

Javale: Hey coach, you told me I had to do this stat, this stat, and this stat - and I did. There's nothing in my stats goals that said I was supposed to switch off and defend that guy when he made that shot that put us down by 30 points in the second quarter.

Flip: You're absolutely right. Forgive me for raising my sandpaper voice. And if it sounded like I was criticising you in any possible way, please please pleeeeeeeeeez forgive me. You were a shining star out there tonight. Sam, do you have any gold stars left, or did you give them all to Andray again? Sammmmm????? Phooey!

Oh no, Javale, I didn't mean you - I meant Sam. He was very bad. He didn't meat his stats goals for the day. Would you like to help me punish him....

[w dumseld]

CCJ,

I think you nailed it. When Blatche and McGee are drawing fouls it means they are attacking the basket. Same for Wall and free throws. When we heist, we lose. But our coach doesn't use an inside-out attack and our GM doesn't draft post players. (He loves tall skinny guys that pass the pre-Moneyball eye-test but not the actual effectiveness test, so we end up with guys like Opec or YI and not guys like Faried or Milsap. Basketball is meant to be played inside out, but that's only for the good teams/organizations.

So 100% of the time that Flip and Grunfeld run the Wiz, we suck donkey sticks.

BTW, the big surprise from the work you did for me was that Nick's offense doesn't seem to help us win. I wonder if we looked at his counterpart's PER, that maybe when he plays good D we win. My eye-ball test says we are better with him but maybe its actually his man to man D and not the shooting or maybe the Wiz really aren't better or worse with him. I'm a Nick fan, but the numbers don't lie.