Better First Three picks

SWedd523 · Post #1 » by **SWedd523** » Fri Dec 23, 2011 6:43 pm

10 team league
Snake draft
H2H scoring format

I've been offered the 17 and 24 for my 19 and 22. I just looked at ESPN's live draft results and it looks like these guys will be my targets with the following picks, but of course there's no guarantee they'll be available (just a semi-educated guess). If it were up to you, which of these trios would you rather have for a starting point?

2. LeBron
19. Josh Smith
22. Eric Gordon

2. LeBron
17. John Wall
24. Al Horford

Apathy · Post #2 » by **Apathy** » Fri Dec 23, 2011 6:55 pm

9cator 8cat makes a huge difference

either way you want horford with the 17th or 19th pick. far and away the most valuable player there imo.

i really don't think it matters. i'd want lebron/horford/nash. 17/24 looks good cuz horford may not be there @ 29 but nash will be there @ 24.

SWedd523 · Post #3 » by **SWedd523** » Fri Dec 23, 2011 7:06 pm

Actually 10cat:

Points
Steals
Rebounds
Blocks
Assists
Turnovers
FG%
FT%
3PM
Technical Fouls

Mind if I ask why you'd go with Horford over a guy like Jefferson or Smith?

Apathy · Post #4 » by **Apathy** » Fri Dec 23, 2011 7:09 pm

most importantly because he might be the safest pick in all of fantasy outside of kevin durant and lebron james.

he doesn't get hurt and he's in his prime. in a compressed schedule that is so so so important

aside from that he's monstrous in scarce categories (FG%, FT%, assists) and gives above-average contributions everywhere else (steals, points, rebounds, blocks). it doesn't jump out at you but it adds up big time and makes the rest of your team so convenient to construct since you can just capitalize on pure value without having to worry about "do i have too much of [insert category]?"

i like jefferson and smith just fine and they're not far behind horford. uta's frontcourt is crowded though and jefferson sucks defensively. smith turns it over a lot and his percentages are volatile

SWedd523 · Post #5 » by **SWedd523** » Fri Dec 23, 2011 7:24 pm

That's why I'm thinking he'll be available with either the 22 or 24 as he's undervalued because he's not "sexy". His average ESPN result is 26th. Assuming he's penciled in at 22/24 (while also understanding the risk that he'll be gone)...

Do you like the small options of Monta/Wall/Gordon or filling out the bigs with Jefferson/LaMarcus? I might be inclined to go with the guards as the PF/C guys are more readily available in later rounds.

Apathy · Post #6 » by **Apathy** » Fri Dec 23, 2011 7:29 pm

this is why making a big board is important. i ranked the top 77 players for my convenience precisely for issues such as this, factoring in positional eligibility and scarcity. then i don't have to wonder about "should i go with monta ellis or al jefferson? should i hope horford is available?"

i'd suggest you to do the same. in the end only you can determine who you like.

it's easy to go too far in trying to get "value." i picked pau gasol 6th overall in one league. i have him ranked 4th. no, it wasn't "good value" in a vacuum, but i don't give a ****. i got my guy. every single time i'm making a pick i got good value as it pertains to me and only me. i walk out of the draft happy.

i am strongly against taking SG/SFs in the 2nd/3rd round unless they constitute great value because they rape the **** out of you in the middle rounds.

sure, gasol/nene/boozer/duncan/hibbert/brand/odom offer absurd value in the middle rounds. but that doesn't mean i'm gonna pick gordon over a big. then i'm gonna have to start taking those aforementioned guys a round earlier to ensure i get them. just go with what you've ranked and let it play itself out. there's no way you can get all the undervalued guys on one team anyway.

if you need to trade an early-round big those ALWAYS trade. gordon and gay not so much. it's hard to trade SG/SFs for PG/PF/C. why? because the team that has them can't live without them. they will lose assists, rebounding, FG% or blocks. you can't live without those. you can live without points and 3s; you can find those much more cheaply.

honestly you simply don't need SG/SF as anything more than than a requisite. id have no problem drafting 4 pgs and 6 PF/C and starting tony allen and boris diaw at sg/sf. i guarantee you i'll make up for any excess in trade value. i'll be in position to rip everyone off.

SWedd523 · Post #7 » by **SWedd523** » Fri Dec 23, 2011 7:39 pm

I've been working on my big board for a few days now, but I've never done a H2H formatted league so I'm trying to change my thought process on guys' value. I may have factored positional scarcity into it too heavily but I personally have Horford 21st (right behind Smith and Jefferson).

I just think the drop off from Ellis/Gordon in the 19-24 range to Manu/Joe Johnson in the 39-44 range is bigger than Smith/Jefferson to Nene/Ibaka. Maybe I'm just trying to play the system a bit too much and making it more difficult than it needs to be :lol:

But if SGs really are that undervalued then maybe it is better to just load up on the absolute most productive players. Especially since LeBron adds a lot in the assist cat. I should also mention that this is a 15 player per team league. So loading up really would work out

Apathy · Post #8 » by **Apathy** » Fri Dec 23, 2011 7:52 pm

ellis is worth it because he gets PG stats from SG; i consider him a pg

eric gordon is not. there is little to no drop-off from gordon to manu/jj.

my SG/SF rankings aside from durant/lbj:

tier i:
melo
ellis (i consider him a pg tho)
smith (i consider him a pf)
tier ii:
granger
gay
pierce
joe johnson
kobe
ray allen
tier iii:
manu
eric gordon
kevin martin
iguodala

SWedd523 · Post #9 » by **SWedd523** » Fri Dec 23, 2011 8:03 pm

So you see Ellis as the only little worth going after with that second (17th) pick?

Apathy · Post #10 » by **Apathy** » Fri Dec 23, 2011 9:14 pm

yup. after curry (11th) and ellis (14th) my next pgs don't appear til nash (25th) and rondo (26th). nash never goes in the 2nd.

jimmy keys · Post #11 » by **jimmy keys** » Fri Dec 23, 2011 10:47 pm

Apathy wrote:ellis is worth it because he gets PG stats from SG; i consider him a pg

eric gordon is not. there is little to no drop-off from gordon to manu/jj.

my SG/SF rankings aside from durant/lbj:

tier i:
melo
ellis (i consider him a pg tho)
smith (i consider him a pf)
tier ii:
granger
gay
pierce
joe johnson
kobe
ray allen
tier iii:
manu
eric gordon
kevin martin
iguodala

Ray Allen ahead of Gordon. Really?

I guess depending on how your league is set up, no wait there's just no justifying that ranking ever.

Joe Johnson shouldn't be on anyone's 2nd tier list either. He's not nearly as valuable as those other guys.

SWedd523 · Post #12 » by **SWedd523** » Sat Dec 24, 2011 12:53 am

Doesn't matter, didn't get either

This is what I DID finish up with (pending a trade being accepted):

2. LeBron James
19. Al Horford
22. LaMarcus Aldridge
39. Kyle Lowry
42. Marcin Gortat (traded for #24 Zach Randolph)
59. Greg Monroe
62. Brandon Jennings (traded for #17 John Wall)
79. Marcus Thornton
82. DeMar DeRozan (traded for #97 Toney Douglas)
99. Boris Diaw
102. Tony Allen
119. Carlos Delfino (waived for Gerald Henderson)
122. Gordon Hayward
139. Derrick Favors
142. Anthony Morrow (waived for DeJuan Blair or Jimmer, can't decide)

doc.end · Post #13 » by **doc.end** » Sat Dec 24, 2011 1:27 am

Trading Gortat away?

SWedd523 · Post #14 » by **SWedd523** » Sat Dec 24, 2011 1:54 am

Yeah.. I know he's a fantasy beast but I still have Horford, Aldridge, Randolph, Monroe, and Favors. So I think it was worth it to upgrade my PG rotation.

If you want him for your team, I'm more than willing to listen to an offer!

Apathy · Post #15 » by **Apathy** » Sat Dec 24, 2011 5:38 pm

jimmy keys wrote:
Ray Allen ahead of Gordon. Really?

I guess depending on how your league is set up, no wait there's just no justifying that ranking ever.

Joe Johnson shouldn't be on anyone's 2nd tier list either. He's not nearly as valuable as those other guys.

you're right. there's no way allen would ever outperform gordon, right?

oh wait. except for every year gordon has been in the league.

ray allen was 28th on the player rater last year:

http://games.espn.go.com/fba/playerrater

that's w/o counting TOs, in which he's even better. he stays in incredible shape and never misses games. can't say the same for gordon. and tell me which numbrs from ray ray last year look out of the ordinary. he's put up similar or better numbers ever since he joined boston. other than allen zero SG/SFs get you 2+ 3s with 48% FG. and with 90% FT. and zero turnovers. and 82 games played.

gordon has missed at least 20 gamesin each of the past two seasons. he's now playing on one of the teams w/ the slowest tempos in the NBA. if you play in turnover leagues allen is better than gordon and it's not even close.

joe johnson played through an elbow injury all year. he's normally a lock for top 30. he too doesn't miss games. DURABILITY IS EXTREMELY VALUABLE. HEALTH IS A SKILL.

JJ gets more assists than gordon and turns it over less. with jamal crawford gone the offense will run through him even more. he won't shoot 30% from 3pt again (career: 36.6%).