Brett Cecil- In Depth (Long)

[baulderdash77]

So let's talk in depth about our much discussed & sometimes maligned (at least as a starter) #3 or #4 starter Brett Cecil. I actually spent quite a while writing this to get all the facts right and I've come away with a greater appreciation of Cecil & his potential. This is a rather long post but it truly is an in depth analysis.

Let's start with the basics. Brett has accumulated almost exactly 2 full years of service in the majors so far so he has 1 option year left and then 3 arbitration years. So we have him under team control until the end of the 2015 season.

In those 2 years this is what Brett has given us: 65 starts, 389 innings, 4.64 ERA, 4.69 FIP, 4.36 xFIP. 6.39 k/9, 3.0 BB/9. Brett has been about an average starting pitcher in MLB. He had a slightly above average year in 2010 and got the benefit of a lot of run support; consequently he got 15 wins and a lot of hype, especially by the media who love wins as a stat.

In 2010 and 2011 combined innings pitched between the minors and the majors was 183 and 202 innings pitched respectively so he's stretched out to full starters length at this point. He's proven to be very durable so far but his dead arm issues (see below) are something of a concern.

Stuff
Brett's stuff includes 5 pitches 90-92 mph Fastball and Sinker, a good 80-82mph changeup, a plus 83-85 mph slider that he throws against lefties and a 77-79 mph curveball that he throws rarely and usually against righties. Except for his curveball he throws the other 4 pitches about equally and mixes it up a lot.

His fastball is usually his first pitch in the count. The AB outcome is often very dependent on that first pitch. If he gets a strike, he gives up <.500 OPSa. If he gets a ball, he gives up >.900 OPSa.
If you're a LHB and he's up 0-1 against you, it's basically over because he's either going to use his slider for strikeouts or his changeup and sinker to induce weak contact.

Because he has a below average fastball he really struggles behind the count because people are sitting on that meatball and looking to drive it.

For LHP/RHP splits, Brett has a big split and in 2011 it was extreme. Against LHB he surrendered .457 OPSa in 2011 and .611 for his career. Against RHB he surrendered .796 OPSa in 2011 and .751 for his career. It's safe to say that Brett is murderous against LHP and struggles a bit against RHP. That's part of the reason why he's had so much success against the AL East and their LHB dominated lineups.

2011- A tale of 2 seasons
Brett started off spring training a little overweight with some dead arm and the velocity on his fastball was down over 2 MPH. He was not injured. With a weaker FB to start with, it had bad consequences because he was always pitching from behind and he doesn't have the stuff to catch up. His 4 seam fastball rate dropped from >30% to 20% of his pitches because of this as he lost faith in his fastball's ability to get ahead in the strike zone and not get driven. Brett's HR/9 jumped from 0.9 in 2010 to 1.6 in 2011 as he couldn't get out of situations when he was behind in the count and when he got behind it was bad. He gave up 15 HR in 230 AB where he got behind, all of them on 1-0 and 2-0 counts when he was throwing fastballs to catch up in the count!

The results were disastrous. In 5 starts during April & May Brett went 5.4 innings per start with a 7.31 ERA, 1.70 WHIP, 6.97 K/9, 4.65 BB/9. The Jays sent him to the minors to work on his arm and after a few months in the minors where he bottomed, they recalled him.

The rest of the way, Brett made 15 starts and he was much better. He averaged 6.4 innings per start with a 4.03 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 6.18 K/9, 2.62 BB/9. He made it to at least 6 in 13 straight starts and had 8 quality starts including 2 complete games. He returned to being an effective innings eating #3/4 starter

Outlook for 2012
This is definitely a make or break season for Brett as he knows that there's organizational pressure behind him and if he doesn't come out effective his days as a starter are over.

Brett has reportedly lost quite a bit of weight in the offseason. It would be great to see him in camp at 210-215 and with that fastball back up to 92.

Assuming that Brett remains a starter, which is a good assumption since we haven't made any moves to displace him; Brett should be the 3rd starter in the rotation. He'll pitch after Morrow again to give us a L/R/L/R rotation.

Bill James has him at 191 IP, 4.19 ERA, 6.88 K/9 & 2.87 BB/9. I think that's a pretty pragmatic view of him since it puts him between his 2010 results plus his end of 2011 results and his beginning of 2011 and 2009 results.

I think a pretty good case can be made that Brett could be that guy this season coming up, especially if he's lost weight and regained velocity. Otherwise he could have a very bright future as a dominant reliever.

Hopefully he ends up as our 3rd inning eating starter and can give us those 200 innings of low 4's ERA that we really need to stabilize the lineup. Brett's success is one of the major factors that our 2012 season hinges on.

[Raptor_Guy]

I've always liked Cecil, though I've never been able to decide if he should be a starter or a reliever since he originally was a closer. However, he's proven to be a solid starter so I think he could be valuable there. One of the reasons I'm still optimistic about this season is because I still believe Romero, Morrow, Cecil, Alvarez and hopefully Drabek or an acquisition would be a solid rotation to go along with an already solid lineup.

I find it funny that our biggest weakness is clearly the bullpen yet people don't seem to care about that area of our game.

[torontoaces04]

So what I got from this is that if Cecil throws first pitch strikes, and only faces LHP, he's going to win the Cy Young.

[jrsmith]

Cecil is a scrub.

[baulderdash77]

Most pitchers tend to throw a fastball after getting a 1-0 Count, Cecil's problem is that last year with the decline in his fastball, he really got into trouble.

With a slower fastball, your margin for error decreases so the hope is that he regains some velocity so that he can more effectively get back into the count.

Like I said, for most of last season he was a decent inning eating pitcher. From July onward he was reliably giving up 3 runs over 6 or 7 innings so a 4.03 ERA in that context is fine. What we need is to get that kind of consistent production over 32 starts next year.

[mikero]

It was really a tale of two seasons for Cecil.

The first half of the season was pretty ugly. He showed up to camp out of shape and had lost some velocity. Although right handed batters always gave him a lot of trouble, this year they were killing him and had an OPS close to 0.900 I think.

After his stint in the minors, Cecil looked much much better. He looked like he worked on his slider. He was using that pitch very effectively against RHBs, which was really encouraging since he never had a weapon to use against them before.

If he shows up to camp motivated and in top shape as reported, I think he should be a pretty solid back of the rotation starter for us. He's still only 25 years old, but at the same time the Jays have a lot of starters in the pipeline so this could be a make or break year for him.

[g_greg]

Thanks for the analysis. You've changed my mind a bit about him.
I often forget that he's only been in the bigs for 2 years. It's probably too early to call this guy a scrub. He deserves another chance in rotation this year, for sure.
Is he working on a pitch to get RHB out? That seems to be his weakness atm.

[Relentless88]

Good post. Hopefully he comes into camp in good shape this time. At this point Cecil is still a favourite for a rotation spot. The starting rotation will be interesting to watch develop over the next couple of years.

[MGD24]

I really, really hope Cecil is NOT our 3rd starter. 5th sure. He is not a #3 on playoff team.

For me, best case scenario is he would be our long relief out of the pen.

[WpgPage]

I like him and hope he can come back into the rotation. Buehrle just got 58/4 and its not really a stretch to think that Cecil can be a very similar pitcher. I don't think hes good enough to be a #3 but he would be a solid inning eating #4 starter for us.

[Relentless88]

Here's a little part on Cecil from a Romero interview with bluejays.com.

MLB.com: Alex Anthopoulos has talked a lot about attempting to add another front-line starter to complement you and Brandon Morrow. Do you feel that's something the organization needs? Or are you happy with the depth of young starters that you currently have?

Romero: Whatever Alex decides to do. Whatever he does, it's to make the team better. If it's going out and getting another starter, then so be it. But obviously I have confidence in my guys. Talking with Brett Cecil, talking with Henderson Alvarez, they're ready. I don't think I've ever seen Cecil as motivated as he is right now -- just talking with him, his demeanor, just the stuff that he has been telling me. Not too long ago, I received a tweet that he was coming after me this year. That pumps me up. This guy wants it and that shows a lot.

See the whole thing here, lots of personal Christmas related questions as well.

http://toronto.bluejays.mlb.com/news/ar ... r&c_id=tor

[flatjacket1]

I think Cecil has a lot of potential but bottom line is that this is a make or break season for him.

[tsherkin]

Cecil wasn't the only one of our pitchers who regressed last year, so I guess it makes sense if we give him another long look as the season begins to see if he can get his velocity back and settle down some, give us some quality innings.

[lilneige]

Because he has a below average fastball he really struggles behind the count because people are sitting on that meatball and looking to drive it.

I think that is the main problem with Cecil. It might be better for him to develop a cutter to add some movement on his pitch and limit the use of fastball.

Comparimg him with Marcum. Marcum is a great example of having a below average fastball, but can mix in cutter, change-up and breaking ball, to off-set the fastball so the hitter can't just sit on the weak fastball. I had seen Marcum actually threw his weak fastball up in the zone and blew by the hitter.

When Marcum came up to the Jays in 2006, he threw FB56.5% (88.1), SL15.8% (81.6), CB10.1% (75.2), and CH16.9% (82.1). His result of that year was 7.47K/9, 4.37BB/9, 1.61HR/9. Later he added a cutter into his repertoire limits his fastball usage to around 40%, and became the Marcum today.

In 2011, Cecil's pitch usage was very similar with Marcum in 2006, FB52.6% (88.5), SL18.6% (83.1), CB6.2% (78.0), CH22.6% (80.3). The result was similar too, with 6.33K/9, 3.06BB/9, 1.6HR/9.

He probably trust his change-up the most, since it has the highest whiff rate in all his pitchers. We knew Marcum has a good change-up too. There are so many similarity between Cecil and 2006 version of Marcum. I think it is fair to say this two pitcher were identical.

Marcum could take off his career with the cutter, I would like to see if Cecil can do the same.

[Secueritae]

I don't like Cecil, was good for like 5 innings but either the 6th or 7th he gave up a string of hits/walks that led to runs. Probably should be used as a long reliever on a regular basis?

[baulderdash77]

Actually Cecil tends to have his meltdowns in pitch 15-30. After that, especially after 75 pitches he gets in a groove and posts his best numbers.

[tsherkin]

Marcum could take off his career with the cutter, I would like to see if Cecil can do the same.

Someone else we know who used to pitch for us used the cutter to advance his career quite handily...

[Skin Blues]

Esteban Loaiza?