All I Want for Christmas...

[ecuhus1981]

.. is a great offseason (and a nice ending to the Dwightmare)!

Isn't it SO "Nets fan"-ish of me to disregard this season so easily? I wouldn't want our players to read this, but after Brook's injury, I don't hold out any hope of us being competitive.

The way I see it, there are points of view regarding the Lopez injury:

--- optimistic (Nets' PR, who claim B-Lo will be fully recovered in 6-8 weeks),
--- realistic (the doctor who says 3-4 months of recovery time would be fortunate), and
--- pessimistic (the writers who immediately foisted Brook into the Ilgauskas/Bowie category, while touting Bynum as a pillar of health because of two preseason games).

Call me crazy, but I give the most credence to the medical professional. I feel that Lopez, who is due for a contract extension next summer and won't risk long-term lingering injury concerns, could miss the entire shortened season. At minimum, he will not play in games before the trade deadline, which sinks our battleship plan for Dwight. Or does it?

The way I see it, the Lakers are our only legitimate competition for Dwight before the deadline. They seem adamant that Pau AND Andrew will not both leave in a Howard trade, and Otis Smith won't budge on this demand. Dallas is on his wish list, but they don't have enough youth to offer in return, so I classify their odds of trading for DH as slim and none. Other teams might be able to put together enticing packages, but I'm going to assume that Dwight's list of approved teams (to which he'll sign an extension) won't change.

Meanwhile, although a lackluster season right before moving to Brooklyn is not ideal, it could put us in line for a mid-lotto pick in one of the deepest drafts in years. If we could land a wing like Harrison Barnes or Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, that would fill out our lineup nicely.

On the down side, Deron would enter the summer as an unrestricted free agent, with no assurances to return. BUT, Dwight would be available as a UFA as well, and if we don't alter our salary position, we should have capspace for TWO max FAs, even after you account for Lopez' QO. We *might* be able to acquire Howard via S&T (ensuring Dwight a full-max 5-year deal) for something similar to what MIA gave to CLE and TOR for Bosh and James, a couple of token future 1sts. That lineup would have every other star-studded cast shaking in their boots, and the mean age of our threesome would be younger than any other, too! Imagine this roster:

WILLIAMS, MORROW, GILCHRIST, LOPEZ, HOWARD
GAINES, BROOKS, JAMES, SHA. WILLIAMS, PETRO

[Ronito]

Can't get a max contract via S&T. Have to be on the team in order to receive the 5/100 contract, otherwise it's a 25M pay cut.

I hope Orlando rolls the dice all the way.

[vincecarter4pres]

The worst part about this is, as is we would have to heavily over achieve to make the playoffs, but if we miss we're probably around 10th to 12th pick range.

This of course is assuming a healthy Okur, if he's laundered toast we're in 5 pick range with a good shot at a jump.

Just a shame this is likely to be a completely lost season even if the long term works out really well.

As for Brook, I read an article the other day, this isn't the same injury Yao, Big Z or Hill had, they all had broken bones on very important weight bearing parts of the foot.

Brook has a stress fracture to a non-load bearing bone.

Its still far from an in the clear given he'll be fine for the long term and/or make a speedy short term recovery, but this isn't a doom and gloom start of lingering injury prone worries scenario right now, although its never ideal for big men to have foot or knee issues.

[ecuhus1981]

Can't get a max contract via S&T. Have to be on the team in order to receive the 5/100 contract, otherwise it's a 25M pay cut.

I hope Orlando rolls the dice all the way.

You're right about the full-max part, but the $25mil figure that people kick around is misleading.

I forgot that even in a sign-and-trade under the new CBA, the annual raises are only 4.5%, instead of the 7.5% Dwight would earn by remaining with the Magic. But that only equates to about $4mil over the course of the first four years of his deal. People add in the other $21mil because staying with your team allows for you to sign a 5-year deal, whereas the maximum term for inking with a new team is only 4 years. It's not as though when the summer of 2016 rolls around that Dwight has to sit out a year, or play for free, all because he declined a five-year deal with ORL. He doesn't "lose" that money, he just has to earn it on his next contract. That's riskier for the player, but only if he suffers a significant, career-altering injury.

Come to think of it, I believe the raises (4.5%) and number of years (4) are the same whether he signed with us outright or we executed a sign-and-trade. SO, theoretically we wouldn't even have to give up future 1sts to get Dwight!

[ecuhus1981]

The worst part about this is, as is we would have to heavily over achieve to make the playoffs, but if we miss we're probably around 10th to 12th pick range.

You knew this was coming...

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U7fjDS0jKiE[/youtube]

We can forget the playoffs. Chris Paul and Dwyane Wade have missed the playoffs with better supporting casts than we have.

Brook has a stress fracture to a non-load bearing bone.

But the pinky toe does control balance, almost as much as the inner ear. THAT concerns me, considering Brook never was graceful to begin with.

[JoseRizal]

Merry Christmas everyone!

[FGump]

--- realistic (the doctor who says 3-4 months of recovery time would be fortunate), and...

Exactly which doctor was this? A Nets' doc who has actually seen the injury and knows the specifics of it? Or some outsider with sketchy info, making lots of assumptions and spewing a wild guess? One can be considered realistic, but due to lack of knowledge, the other cannot.

[vincecarter4pres]

Merry Christmas everyone!

Cheers!

[vincecarter4pres]

--- realistic (the doctor who says 3-4 months of recovery time would be fortunate), and...

Exactly which doctor was this? A Nets' doc who has actually seen the injury and knows the specifics of it? Or some outsider with sketchy info, making lots of assumptions and spewing a wild guess? One can be considered realistic, but due to lack of knowledge, the other cannot.

I'll give you one guess, after this hint. His favorite colors are purple and gold.

[vincecarter4pres]

We can forget the playoffs. Chris Paul and Dwyane Wade have missed the playoffs with better supporting casts than we have.

When?

When they missed around half the season?

Look, I'm not expecting playoffs, but if Memo comes in healthy and plays his ass off and just one wing steps up, Kris picks back up where he left off last year, there's no reason they can't keep us afloat until Brook is back in March, or even for the whole season.

You look at the first 10 games?

No reason we won't go a minimum of 5 and 5 through those games.

Again, the lineup is definitely ragtag, but there's promise as long as the two important things I mentioned come true:

1) Okur is healthy.

2) The Hump picks back up where he left off.

[Sharcm1]

The worst part about this is, as is we would have to heavily over achieve to make the playoffs, but if we miss we're probably around 10th to 12th pick range.

This of course is assuming a healthy Okur, if he's laundered toast we're in 5 pick range with a good shot at a jump.

Just a shame this is likely to be a completely lost season even if the long term works out really well.

As for Brook, I read an article the other day, this isn't the same injury Yao, Big Z or Hill had, they all had broken bones on very important weight bearing parts of the foot.

Brook has a stress fracture to a non-load bearing bone.

Its still far from an in the clear given he'll be fine for the long term and/or make a speedy short term recovery, but this isn't a doom and gloom start of lingering injury prone worries scenario right now, although its never ideal for big men to have foot or knee issues.

The fact that Brook played continued to play with the injury tells me that its not so serious. If it was he would have had to sit.

[bobbyc]

@sharcm1 I didn't think about that. He played a whole half with it and didn't limp as I remember. He was on the bench cause of foul trouble a lot though.

I think we are a borderline playoff team. We may not have great players next to Deron, but we do have a lot of good role players on this team now. Hump, Stevenson, Shawne Williams, James, Morrow, and maybe Brooks are all solid role players IMO. We have a lot of depth at the guard and foward positions. And, if you look at Chicago you can win with 1 star on your team and quality role players and bench. CHI has better Cs and defense.

But, If Okur and Shawne Williams play well. Our offense can be pretty good.

[ecuhus1981]

...

Take a hard, objective look at this lineup:

Deron Williams (39) - Jordan Farmar (15) - Sundiata Gaines
Anthony Morrow (27) - MarShon Brooks (11) -
DeShawn Stevenson (29) - Damion James (13) - Dennis Horner
Kris Humphries (31) - Shawne Williams (19) - Jordan Williams
Mehmet Okur (27) - Johan Petro (9) - Shelden Williams

You're asking Memo and Hump to re-create career years, JUST to maintain an average frontcourt. We can agree to disagree about the likelihood of either of those things happening.

On the wings, it's not the worst in the league, but it's uninspiring. Brooks is the only guy that is capable of creating his own shot at an advanced level, and really, I think Stevenson will absorb some of his minutes. DeShawn will need to play extensively, though, to shore up our perimeter D and offensive flow, IMO.

Deron will do what he can, and the depth behind him is the least of my concerns. I believe he has enough pride in his own level of play to keep us from "bottoming out". But it won't be pretty. Look at the other teams in our conference. Where do you think we stand?

Miami
Chicago
New York
Atlanta
Boston
Indiana
Philadelphia
Orlando
Milwaukee
Washington
(I see us landing here, with around a 25 - 41 record)
Detroit
Toronto
Cleveland
Charlotte

Can you honestly see us being better than Orlando, Indiana and Philadelphia? Even at our best, Washington or a healthy Milwaukee would be an enormous test, with their quality PG/C tandems and quality depth throughout their lineups.

We're not in the playoff picture, man. And if you think Brook is going to fly to the rescue of our season and rush back from injury, after we've hung him out to dry on the trading block and going into a contract offseason, you've got another thing coming. If I were him, I wouldn't roll the dice by returning from ANY sort of stress fracture and jeopardize a huge payday, to return to a team that is clearly shopping me.

[ecuhus1981]

ESPN has a slightly better view of us than I do (I predict 26-40; they predict 28-38), but their prediction is still outside of the playoff picture. I'm actually flattered.

[Cruzeirao]

The best thing for us is to get D12 in the off season.
If we could keep Humpries even after sign D12 would be amazing.

We could trade Lopez for one all star SF. Maybe Derrick Williams if he turn out to be a good player.

Deron Williams
Anthony Morrow
Derrick Williams
Kris Humpries
Dwight Howard

I know i'm dreaming... lol

[N Ireland Nets]

The best thing for us is to get D12 in the off season.
If we could keep Humpries even after sign D12 would be amazing.

We could trade Lopez for one all star SF. Maybe Derrick Williams if he turn out to be a good player.

Deron Williams
Anthony Morrow
Derrick Williams
Kris Humpries
Dwight Howard

I know i'm dreaming... lol

We wouldn't trade Lopez for Melo or Deron Williams so there's no way we'd trade him for an unproven rookie.

The only trade we'd do with Lopez would be for a player of the standard of someone like Eric Gordon, a young play with massive talent and could get even better.

[Cruzeirao]

I was talking in the off season.

Brook Lopez is a great player (probably a top 5 center), but if we can keep Hump and get D12, he will be gone.

IF Derrick Williams turns out to be a good player. He wouldn't be an unproven rookie anymore, since i'm talking about the off season.

But could be Gordon too... But Stern would veto the trade for "basketball reasons".
In truth, would be to avoid the Nets to get a big 3.

[ecuhus1981]

^

Derrick Williams is fine (more of a stretch 4 for my taste...), but why don't we draft the SF upgrade we need? 2012 projects as a talent-rich draft class, and we could have two picks in the 10-17 range (although I'm not confident that HOU will make the postseason, and their pick is lotto-protected).

The more I see Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, the more I think of Ron Artest (minus the crazy): an intense competitor, an elite and stoutly built defender with an unorthodox shot, a great "knack" for creating shots and mediocre above-the-rim finishing ability. He's super-young (just turned 18 in September), but is the 2nd-leading scorer for Kentucky, a team that boasts 4 other 2012 1st-round locks. I think he could be a glue guy and 4th/5th option on a contender from day one.