ESPN.com: Blue Jays should acquire Matt Garza from the Cubs

[polo007]

http://espn.go.com/blog/chicago/cubs/po ... rebuilding

The Toronto Blue Jays seem to be the best matchup for the Cubs in a Garza deal. After just missing out on Japanese starter Yu Darvish and watching left-hander John Danks re-sign with the White Sox, the Blue Jays best chance to compete would be to acquire Garza before the start of the season.

Toronto’s No. 1 pick from 2010, right-hander Deck McGuire, will be the focal point of any negotiations between the Cubs and Jays. The 22-year-old pitcher was a combined 9-5 at three different minor-league levels in 2011. The Blue Jays are convinced he’s near major-league ready.

The Cubs will also inquire about the availabilities of left-handed pitcher Justin Nicolino and power-hitting outfielder Jake Marisnick. Nicolino, a 20-year-old pitcher, was 6-2 with a 1.33 ERA at two minor league levels last season. He allowed just 39 hits in 61 innings. Marisnick is considered a five-tool prospect and hit 14 homers at the lower-A level last year.

The Cubs, who have no great agenda to trade Garza, are also preparing to talk to his agent about a long-term deal. So far they don’t like where the trade talks are going.

[Homer Jay]

I would do McGuire and Marisnick for Garza if we already had a team friendly extension planned out for him. I'm not as high on McGuire as I was a year ago (Surpassed by Syndergaard already), and Marisnick is a nice prospect but we still have Rasmus and Gose.

No D'Arnaud, Syndergaard, Nicolino, Hutchison and only one of Gose/Marisnick and I would be happy. Garza is a proven AL East pitcher.

[wbbfan]

That's a strong price but one Id pay if it seemed like we'd be able to get him extended to a reasonable sum.

[LBJSeizedMyID]

If the Jays are interested in competing this year, they'd make the trade only for lower level prospects. I doubt they'd part with that many AA/AAA level prospects.

[baulderdash77]

If the Jays are linked to it in the media, it isn't happening.

I would be thrilled with Garza though. He really is a good pitcher and is proven in the AL East.

[Skin Blues]

You want to watch 30+ games worth of him frothing up saliva in his mouth and spitting it out? Grosses me out, and I only probably watch one of his starts per season.

[dagger]

Supposedly, for Gio Gonzales, we were offering second tier prospects only.

[vaff87]

Supposedly, for Gio Gonzales, we were offering second tier prospects only.

Good. Since when did guys like Gio Gonzalez become worth the package the Nats gave up? If that's what it takes to get a decent starting pitcher these days, the Jays are much better off letting their prospects develop.

[Wally West]

To acquire Matt Garza, the only prospects I wouldn't give up for him would be D'arnaud, Gose and Syndergaard. Everybody else could be had at the right price.

[BobbyBoy]

Shouldnt give up much because I dont think he is a number 2 pitcher, but he is a number 3

[BobbyBoy]

I think they jays should sign Edwin Jackson too.

Rotation: Romero
Garza
Morrow
Jackson
Alvarez/drabek/everyone else battling for the position

[flatjacket1]

Gosh I hope not.

If it takes anything more than 2 B level prospects I'm out.

FIP is higher than Morrows, hes not worth all that much. Also don't forget the "AL East effect"

I'd rather wait for Noah (The guy in our system who can hit triple digits on the radar gun)

[Kurtz]

Gosh I hope not.

If it takes anything more than 2 B level prospects I'm out.

FIP is higher than Morrows, hes not worth all that much. Also don't forget the "AL East effect"

I'd rather wait for Noah (The guy in our system who can hit triple digits on the radar gun)

Garza averaged a 3 WAR when pitching in the Al East for 3 years. Morrow has averaged a 1.5 WAR during the last 2.

Also, I don't think he'd be blocking Noah, given that we have 3 starting rotation spots wide open at this point.

[hyper316]

i like garza, proven arm in the AL East with success.

Romero
Garza
Morrow
---
--- (Alvarez, Cecil, McGowan, Drabek)

Garza would be a nice consolation prize after not winning Darvish. Cubs are in total rebuild mode, so they are willing to trade Garza. The only thing is the price it will cost

[flatjacket1]

Garza averaged a 3 WAR when pitching in the Al East for 3 years. Morrow has averaged a 1.5 WAR during the last 2.

Also, I don't think he'd be blocking Noah, given that we have 3 starting rotation spots wide open at this point.

If you use Fangrapghs WAR, Morrow averaged 3.55 WAR/year in the AL East and Garza averaged 2.53 WAR/yea in the AL East.

1. Pitcher Value: fWAR relies totally on FIP, making it a defense-independent metric, while rWAR adds in defensive runs saved as well.

I think Fangraphs is more accurate when it comes to pitcher WAR tbh.

A package for Garza could easily mean we part ways with either Noah or a Noah level prospect, I'm just saying giving up 2 of those + another prospect isn't worth Garza.

[BobbyBoy]

I only like a garza deal if we trade 1 b+ prospect and a b prospect. I still think AA could do better, like Matt Cain, even though it would cost a lot more.

[-MetA4-]

Garza isn't going to happen. A GM that places an incredible amount of emphasis on value isn't going to pay a premium for a pitcher who has only 2 years of control.

[flatjacket1]

I only like a garza deal if we trade 1 b+ prospect and a b prospect. I still think AA could do better, like Matt Cain, even though it would cost a lot more.

Just some food for thought, but D'Arnaud and Gose according to "Minor League Ball" (John Sickels).

Grade B prospects have a good chance to enjoy successful careers. Some will develop into stars, some will not. Most end up spending several years in the majors, at the very least in a marginal role.

1) Travis D'Arnaud, C, Grade B+: Borderline A-: He would be an A- or maybe even an A if he was more effective at throwing out runners and struck out less often, but he can really hit and is still a superior prospect even with those weaknesses.

9) Anthony Gose, OF, Grade B: Other people will probably rank him higher due to his tools. He's made a lot of progress, but his hitting approach remains quite raw and the strikeout rate still bothers me. Made big strides refining his defense and baserunning. Grade A tools, Grade C+ skills, makes him a strong Grade B overall.

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2011/11/ ... s-for-2012

I would do it for two level B prospects too but don't toss it around like its nothing, that's significant value for a Morrow type pitcher. I would add a level C prospect too or possible Ben Francisco or Raja as a sweetener.

I would offer:
A.J. Jimenez
Deck McGuire
Cooper
Raja Davis

For
Matt Garza

That's just my opinion, feel free to bash it. I'm not professional. I would also be content with sitting this one out. Garza is a great pitcher, but at the same time I have a feeling the price won't be right. Whatever happens, happens I guess.

Garza isn't going to happen. A GM that places an incredible amount of emphasis on value isn't going to pay a premium for a pitcher who has only 2 years of control.

I never noticed only 2 years of control, thanks for bringing that up. I think sitting out here looks like the best option.

[BobbyBoy]

I like the trade^^ but only if there is extension in place.

[OldNo7]

This is solely the point of view of an ESPN Chicago writer, not one of ESPN's well-connected scribes, so of course the writer is only looking out for the Cubs' best interest.