2012 NBA Draft

[theboomking]

I still like Thomas Robinson. He's a terrific defender who covers a lot of ground, a great rebounder, and he has the making of a pretty good midrange game. He hits some jumpers in games, and he shoots 70% from the FT line. If McGee gets better as a post option, I think he and Robinson would make a nice tandem up front.

Robinson would be an upgrade over Blatche, and certainly would help with rebounding and man post-defense. He isn't the best help defender though and isn't an elite rim protector. I wouldn't dislike Robinson as a second pick, but he isn't going to be the difference maker we are looking for out of this year's draft.

[queridiculo]

Drummonds is the guy I'm going to hitch my wagon too. Knowing our luck though we'll finish with the worst record and end up picking 4th.

[no D in Hibachi]

I'd also prefer Drummond over Davis because I don't like Davis' slight frame. Sure he may grow into it, but didn't we say the same thing about Blatche and McGee? Neither of them have really filled out. Sure McGee is bigger, but he's in his 4th season and still has a difficult time holding position. Also, if you look at the top ten rebounders from last year the one consistency between all of them, except Gasol and Chandler, is they can attack their man with their rump roast. They all have decent gerth to shield off their man and hold their position. Love, Howard, Griffin, Randolph, Humphries, Lee, Jefferson, Okafor, and Horford all have a trunk. Davis brings IQ that this team lacks, but he still doesn't have the body to be an elite rebounder...he could prove me wrong, but I won't bet on it. Doesn't matter anyways, worst place team with the 4th pick here we come!

[daSwami]

This thread offers an oasis of hope in what will no doubt be a miserable season. Drummond, Davis, Barnes, Sullinger - I'd be thrilled with any of them.

[Zonkerbl]

I just don't see Davis as having some sort of super skinny, Marcus Camby-type frame that will never fill out. He looks like he will fill out. I'm not worried about that at all.

Get him on the juice and he'll be fine. Shoot, it's not like they use steroids in the NBA. Juan Dixon said it so it must be true!

[MF23]

Gus Gilchrist actually was pretty good against Drummond in their game. UConn is huge this year and Gilchrist is only 6'9. He was active and even blocked a fad away by Drummond. The thing I like most about Gilchrest is he's a big man and he stays working in the paint. I've seen him knock down jumpers with some skill before but it wasn't happening this game. He had to stay down low otherwise USF wouldn't get any boards.

Drummond is such a freak but he needs a lot of work. He's almost too nice, it's like he's giving his opponents chances to convert by being passive. His defensive awareness is below average as I see the same problems I see with Javale McGee in regards to concentration. I don't see any post game from him. He's coordinated, explosive and the most talented prospect I've seen since Kevin Durant. Durant's mind was far more advanced than Drummonds during his freshman year. I can give him a pass knowing he was supposed to be in prep school this year.

Lamb is a very good prospect. He's like a shorter Nick Young who likes to play defense, rebound and move the ball. He stepped up at the end of the USF game.

[Ruzious]

I'd also prefer Drummond over Davis because I don't like Davis' slight frame. Sure he may grow into it, but didn't we say the same thing about Blatche and McGee? Neither of them have really filled out. Sure McGee is bigger, but he's in his 4th season and still has a difficult time holding position. Also, if you look at the top ten rebounders from last year the one consistency between all of them, except Gasol and Chandler, is they can attack their man with their rump roast. They all have decent gerth to shield off their man and hold their position. Love, Howard, Griffin, Randolph, Humphries, Lee, Jefferson, Okafor, and Horford all have a trunk. Davis brings IQ that this team lacks, but he still doesn't have the body to be an elite rebounder...he could prove me wrong, but I won't bet on it. Doesn't matter anyways, worst place team with the 4th pick here we come!

If you don't think McGee has filled out, you need to look at pictures of him from college vs now. I think he's gained a good 30 lbs since his last college game as a sophomore. And Blatche has filled out - a lot more than he needed to. He's gotta be over 260 lbs - and that's with no muscle mass. How much more do you want him to fill out? Davis has a nice frame - he will fill out. He is a sure thing, imo.

Btw, Sullinger just continues to impress me every time I see him - while Perry Jones does the exact opposite. It's interesting to contrast the two - and to contrast the way Baylor and Ohio State play. Baylor is undefeated and athletic, and yet - I wouldn't be at all surprised if they lose 10 straight - they're just not that good. Ohio State, otoh, really is that good and then some.

[theboomking]

Lamb is a very good prospect. He's like a shorter Nick Young who likes to play defense, rebound and move the ball. He stepped up at the end of the USF game.

I would say that lamb is like a longer NY who likes to play defense, rebound and move the ball. Lamb has a really high ceiling IMHO and could be the second or third best player on a championship caliber team.

Btw, Sullinger just continues to impress me every time I see him - while Perry Jones does the exact opposite. It's interesting to contrast the two - and to contrast the way Baylor and Ohio State play. Baylor is undefeated and athletic, and yet - I wouldn't be at all surprised if they lose 10 straight - they're just not that good. Ohio State, otoh, really is that good and then some.

I agree with you that PJIII is a worrisome prospect, but I think you are overvaluing Sullinger as a prospect. I just am not sure that he has the physical attributes to be a great pro. We don't need a good prospect out of this draft. We need a great one.

Gilchrist continues to impress. He might be the best player on the Kentucky squad right now. I was worried about him offensively, but Michael continues to be efficient and led Kentucky with 18 pts in 26 minutes last night on 5-6 FGA, while hitting 8-10 FTA. He also had 6 rebounds, 4 assists, a steal, a block, and only one turnover. Gilchrist is like a very rich mans Chris Singleton IMHO.

[fishercob]

PJIII is officially off my board. We just can't afford a bust with this pick and he carries that risk. I'd go with a lower ceiling guy (Sullinger, for instance) over Jones for sure.

[Ruzious]

Lamb is a very good prospect. He's like a shorter Nick Young who likes to play defense, rebound and move the ball. He stepped up at the end of the USF game.

I would say that lamb is like a longer NY who likes to play defense, rebound and move the ball. Lamb has a really high ceiling IMHO and could be the second or third best player on a championship caliber team.

Btw, Sullinger just continues to impress me every time I see him - while Perry Jones does the exact opposite. It's interesting to contrast the two - and to contrast the way Baylor and Ohio State play. Baylor is undefeated and athletic, and yet - I wouldn't be at all surprised if they lose 10 straight - they're just not that good. Ohio State, otoh, really is that good and then some.

I agree with you that PJIII is a worrisome prospect, but I think you are overvaluing Sullinger as a prospect. I just am not sure that he has the physical attributes to be a great pro. We don't need a good prospect out of this draft. We need a great one.

Gilchrist continues to impress. He might be the best player on the Kentucky squad right now. I was worried about him offensively, but Michael continues to be efficient and led Kentucky with 18 pts in 26 minutes last night on 5-6 FGA, while hitting 8-10 FTA. He also had 6 rebounds, 4 assists, a steal, a block, and only one turnover. Gilchrist is like a very rich mans Chris Singleton IMHO.

The first time I saw Gilchrist was at a HS All-Star game, and I thought he was the best prospect of everyone - including Anthony Davis - who was only about 210 lbs back then. The sky is the limit for Gilchrist, but... he's still got to show he can hit jump shots.

[Ruzious]

PJIII is officially off my board. We just can't afford a bust with this pick and he carries that risk. I'd go with a lower ceiling guy (Sullinger, for instance) over Jones for sure.

PJIII? Is that a Pearl Jam reference?

[Severn Hoos]

I know there's a hesitancy to draft marginal players, or stockpile late 1st round picks - but I also see a formula of sorts in making those picks. There are a large number of solid NBA contributors (from just a notch below All-Star to solid rotation guys) who were drafted in the teens. Consider this list:

Patrick Patterson (14)
Gerald Henderson (12)
Tyler Hansborough (13)
Ty Lawson (18)
Darren Collison (21)
Roy Hibbert (17)
Danny Granger (17)
Kevin Martin (26)

Now, obviously I've done some cherry picking here. (And stretched the definiton of "the teens", but you get the point.)

What do these guys have in common?

All were either Juniors or Seniors, playing a minimum of 3 years NCAA ball.
All had some sort of supposed limitation - usually physical, and often size.
Their draft stock among the "experts" was lower than it ever should have been.

And when you look at those drafts, there are a sea of underclassmen and international players all around them, all with supposedly higher "upside." And where are those guys now? Many of them (hi, Oleksiy!) have washed out or never even made it to the League. (Yes, of course - some have hit and stuck, but I like the track record of these guys better)

So - point is, I wouldn't turn up my nose at a mid-1st rounder, and would be ready to take on a bad contract to get one. The issue is - who do you pick? Look at the last two Wiz picks in this range. Do you like the International kid with the upside (Seraphin) or the NCAA Upperclassman (Singleton) better?

[Simple explanation here, IMO. The best underclassmen get taken at the top of the 1st round. We can make fun of NBA scouting all we want, but on the whole, they typically do get it right more often than not. So, a Freshman or Sophomore who slips to the middle of the 1st round probably shouldn't have entered the Draft at all. Whereas the Junior or Senior, especially if he's "undersized", can't do anything about his draft stock, but he can just go out and play ball. The under-20 crowd that doesn't go top 10 is almost always Fool's Gold. Usually best to stay far away from them.]

We absolutely have to get a true impact player with the Wiz' own pick (probably top 6), but if there's any chance to pick up another selection in the mid-1st, EG should definitely do it, and draft a "proven" commodity, even if that commodity doesn't have the "upside" of those drafted around him. Then check back in 2-3 years and see who's turned into an NBA contributor.

[Severn Hoos]

I still like Thomas Robinson. He's a terrific defender who covers a lot of ground, a great rebounder, and he has the making of a pretty good midrange game. He hits some jumpers in games, and he shoots 70% from the FT line. If McGee gets better as a post option, I think he and Robinson would make a nice tandem up front.

Thanks for bringing him up, nate - that was an oversight in my original list. I do like Robinson, but I also think that enduring this season to get (just) Thomas Robinson would have to qualify as a disappointment. He would be a great guy to add in addition to another big-time player (say, Jeremy Lamb), but if it's just TR, we've got a longer wait in store, IMO.

Interesting - Robinson is listed at the same height as Sullinger. Anyone have opinions of whether Thomas (can we call him Truck?) Robinson will have a better chance to survive as an NBA PF? Seems a lot of people here (and some real-life experts) are doing a lot of hand-wringing over Sullinger's prospects to be successful in the paint in the NBA. Are the same concerns true of TR? If not, is there a difference in athleticism? I love Sullinger, but am behind the curve on Robinson, any input is appreciated!

[Ed Wood]

There are some concerns about Robinson's prospects in the NBA, as there would be for any prospect who isn't absolutely gold plated. I'm not sure I'd say he's noticeably short for a power forward but he has more typical size than archetypal size. There is, however, very much a difference in athleticism between him and Sullinger. Sullinger is a player you might describe as athletic for his size and body type, dancing bear kind of thing. Robinson is athletic with no need for qualifiers.

On the other hand Robinson is not a gifted offensive player so much as a guy with some offensive ability who gets by because he is so athletic and plays very hard. I'd look at him like a Patrick Patterson/DeJuan Blair kind of player who is a very safe bet but probably won't be more than a good starter and a favorite of the statistically inclined. So for my part I like him but I kind of agree I'd want to get another significant piece in the draft if the team added him.

[Ruzious]

Yeah, I've seen people say Robinson is anywhere from 6'8 to 6'10. He's one of those players I can't get a good feel for what his real size is, so how he measures matters - height and length. I don't think he's as big as Favors, for example. He's like a poor man's Amare in some ways. He's got spin moves, but I get the feeling he's out of control when he uses them - as opposed to Amare - who always looks in control. That'd be okay if he was a freshman, but he's a junior. Fast forward to the NCAA tournament - how much he improves or doesn't will be the biggest key to how high he goes in the draft.

[Ruzious]

Sev, I don't know how much cap space we have this season, but maybe it's enough to pull off a BOYD deal to get a late 1st. This draft looks to be deep in quality, so it could help. Maybe we could help a team avoid the lux tax and pick up a pick - as long as the contract we pick up is an expiring. Does anyone know what our cap space looks like for this season?

[nate33]

Question for the board:

If we end up with the #3 pick and both Davis and Drummond are off the board, should we consider trading down? I'm just not that thrilled with Sullinger or Perry Jones, and I'm not sure if Harrison Barnes will be much of an upgrade over Singleton (assuming Singleton continues to hone his jumper). What if we could somehow acquire, say, the 6th pick and the 9th pick? We could come away with someone like Robinson or Henson PLUS Gilchrist.

[nate33]

Sev, I don't know how much cap space we have this season, but maybe it's enough to pull off a BOYD deal to get a late 1st. This draft looks to be deep in quality, so it could help. Maybe we could help a team avoid the lux tax and pick up a pick - as long as the contract we pick up is an expiring. Does anyone know what our cap space looks like for this season?

I think we have about $6 or $7 million. I don't have my spreadsheet with me right now.

[miller31time]

Question for the board:

If we end up with the #3 pick and both Davis and Drummond are off the board, should we consider trading down? I'm just not that thrilled with Sullinger or Perry Jones, and I'm not sure if Harrison Barnes will be much of an upgrade over Singleton (assuming Singleton continues to hone his jumper). What if we could somehow acquire, say, the 6th pick and the 9th pick? We could come away with someone like Robinson or Henson PLUS Gilchrist.

The difference between you and I is that I am thrilled with Barnes and would be happy with Sullinger and Jones.

Singleton, at his best is a lockdown defender and good-but-not-great spot-up shooter. That's role player material, albeit a great one. Nothing about his game says potential running mate for John Wall. You potentially get that out of Barnes, Jones and maybe Sullinger.

[Benjammin]

Sev, I don't know how much cap space we have this season, but maybe it's enough to pull off a BOYD deal to get a late 1st. This draft looks to be deep in quality, so it could help. Maybe we could help a team avoid the lux tax and pick up a pick - as long as the contract we pick up is an expiring. Does anyone know what our cap space looks like for this season?

I think we have about $6 or $7 million. I don't have my spreadsheet with me right now.

I don't think it's that much. We have Bibby's dead money at a little over a million plus Evans plus Mason so I don't know that the cap room is more than a few million.