Identifying New Trade Partners

[shrink]

It's early in the season, but early successes or failures may already be causing some teams to rethink their team's directions. For example, PHI fans seem to be taking down their long-standing Wes Johnson for Iguodala swap, as they dream about the play-offs.

I've been taking a look at the early current standings - not just wins and losses, but the margins of victory, thinking that perhaps new trade opportunities may be emerging.

http://espn.go.com/nba/standings

The teams with the biggest margins of victory have been:

27.0 ATL (2-0)
19.5 DEN (2-0)
19.0 SAS (2-0)
13.0 POR (2-0)

and the teams with the biggest margins of loss have been

-21.0 UTA (0-2)
-16.5 DAL (0-2)
-15.0 NJN (1-1)
-14.0 DET (0-2)
-12.0 WAS (0-2)

The Celtics started 0-3

Anybody see anything? Any team who wants to right the ship before it gets too bad, a team who suddenly thinks they have a chance and needs more talent, or maybe a team that says "not our year - let's sell assets?"

[Winter Wonder]

I can't see the Celtics really blowing it up, but despite age and the fact he is an expiring, Ray Allen would be the type of player I wish the wolves had a shot at.

Again, old, legs aren't the same defensively, not the contender he would want to play for, expiring, etc... but a consistent outside threat who, though not a dominant athlete, works hard on both sides of the floor and has the right attitude... it would be interesting. He is the type that needs to be set up to score though, and our offense doesn't seem predicated to setting a number of off the ball screens. Drive and kick outs are abundant though, especially with Rubio and JJ.

Overall, would depend on cost and Ray Allen's long term goals. We have enough pieces that would likely work for Boston (Pek and a player from our 2/3/4 pool? Ridnour works as well).

Regardless, probably doesn't work age and contract-wise, but may be fun to see Rubio driving and kicking to a wide open Allen for the corner three...

[Klomp]

Phoenix sticks out to me. They just lost by 20 to PHI. Their leading scorer last night was Ronnie Price. There were already offseason trade rumors (Nash/Gortat).

[Krapinsky]

Agree with Klomp about Phoenix. I can see Kahn calling daily about Nash.

Detroit, maybe, for Stuckey or maybe even Gordon.

[shrink]

We've recently had threads on Gortat and Ben Gordon in the trade board.

Phoenix is interesting, because as extremely good a contract that Gortat is .. they have one on the deal that is just as extremely bad.

I posted this over there:

If we agree that Sarver is a cheap NBA owner, that would make Gortat a very valuable piece to him. He is one of the very few starting centers in the NBA who is clearly underpaid (Dwight Howard, as well). If we agree with this, then we have to realize that Childress is a piece that Sarver must hate writing checks for. He's averaging 3.5 PPG this year, and averaged 5.0 PPG last year .. and he makes more than Gortat! Combining them makes an interesting situation:

Josh Childress $7,182,500, $7,865,000, $8,547,500, $9,230,000
Marcin Gortat $6,790,640, $7,258,960, *

* Gortat has an early termination offer for $7.7 mil in 2013-14, which he should obviously use.

So here's the trade valuation question: Is the combination of having Childress + Gortat at $14 mil in 2011-12, and $15 mil in 2012-13, worth taking on $18 mil of just Childress from 2013-15?

I would say "no." In fact, if we pretended these players had market prices that matched their combined real prices (Childress $1/$1, Gortat $13/$14 (?) ), I think the first two years are break-even at best, and clearly Childress is a painfully bad contract after Gortat is gone.

If Sarver wanted to get max value from Gortat in a trade (not saying he does), it'd need to be disentangled from Childress horrible deal removing it's trade value.

[Saltine]

I can't see Kahn taking Childress, he won't overpay Iggy or Martin, no way he gives it to Childress. Kahn just doesn't do the bad contract thing. I doubt phoenix lets Gortat go, he is to inexpensive...

I can see Kahn gunning for Nash though. Something like Luke and Pekovic plus picks/Randolph?

[Krapinsky]

Sacramento? They need another PG imo.

Ridnour + Pekovic/Darko for Salmons.

[Klomp]

Sacramento? They need another PG imo.

Ridnour + Pekovic/Darko for Salmons.

Why would we do that?

[Krapinsky]

Sacramento? They need another PG imo.

Ridnour + Pekovic/Darko for Salmons.

Why would we do that?

Because it would make the team better?

[Peezo]

I thought you said Pek and Darko, but I still wouldn't want to send Darko for Salmons. I think he is a serviceable center and even 4.5 mil a year for a backup is reasonable.

[shangrila]

Sacramento? They need another PG imo.

Ridnour + Pekovic/Darko for Salmons.

Why would we do that?

Because it would make the team better?

Would it? Salmons seems like an average player.

[Krapinsky]

I thought you said Pek and Darko, but I still wouldn't want to send Darko for Salmons. I think he is a serviceable center and even 4.5 mil a year for a backup is reasonable.

Well Salmons is a serviceable starting SG and $8M year isn't so unreasonable. He's a two way, versatile player that can do a little of everything and he's a much needed Veteran presence. He'd instantly become our best perimeter defender on the wing and give us a capable SG on offense.

[hello_melo]

What makes you think Minnesota wants to add a bunch of salary?

[jscott]

What makes you think Minnesota wants to add a bunch of salary?

What makes you think we don't?

No one said anything about a "bunch" of salary but we are certainly in a position to make cap an available (and valuable) asset to the right team.

[shangrila]

I think this is way too early anyway. Give it 15 games. That's a quarter of the season and a decent indication of where teams stand.

[cpfsf]

Phoenix is too good to be assured a good draft pick, but not good enough to compete in the playoffs. There is no quick fix to compete. For now, they're just an above average team delaying the inevitable. I'm losing interest in Nash as the season goes on, but I'd pursue Gortat.

Milwaukee is kind of on the same boat. They have a lot of holes (especially on offense), aren't playoff contenders, and really have too many bad contracts which are weighing them down. I'm especially interested in Bogut and Moute.

Cleveland acquired their future core of Irving and Thompson. At the same time, Cleveland has the 29 year old Anderson Varejao on the roster, and he really doesn't fit in their future plans considering they are years away from making the playoffs.

Sorry if they're not really new.

[younggunsmn]

Tristan Thompson was an AWFUL draft pick. taking him over jonas, knight, and kemba walker is as bad as flynn over curry. Guy is a role player at best.

I think we have to break it down into 3 categories
1) Teams that might give value/better fit for our non-core pieces (anyone other than rubio/love/williams)
2) Teams that might be willing to part with players that suit our needs.
3) Value opportunities (cap concerns/players buried on the bench/contending teams with gaping holes/injury problems).

Untouchable:
Love/Rubio/Williams

Still has Potential (2 or more yrs left on rookie deal):
Johnson/Lee

Move for value/fit: (positive trade value or at end of rookie contract)
Beasley/Randolph
Ridnour/Barea

Neutral value
Tolliver/Darko/Ellington

Value only as an expiring contract/salary filler
Webster/Miller

Negative Value
Pekovic

Surplus Assets:
Memphis Pick (likely to be 17-25 in 2013)
Utah Pick (will be lucky to get it, if we do it will be no better than 10th).

[Krapinsky]

Tristan Thompson has a 23 PER thru 2 games. That's a small sample size, but I think it's a little to early to declare him a role player.

[younggunsmn]

The first question is which direction do we go regarding 2012 cap room? Do we shed salary to sign a FA or trade for salary or do we trade webster/miller for a 2-3 year deal and some serious incentive to a team hoarding cap space (Dal/nj/orl?)

This is what our salary situation would look like.
Figures for Beasley/Love/Randolph are cap holds;
Should Love sign a max extension, add about 2 mil to his cap hold.
This also assumes Webster and Miller are cut (webster's # includes a minimum cap hold to replace his roster spot)

2012-13 Salary On Books
1 Michael Beasley 12,524,694
2 Kevin Love 11,524,252
3 Darko Milicic 5,228,000
4 Derrick Williams 4,947,840
5 Nikola Pekovic 4,915,000
6 Juan Jose Barea 4,650,250
7 Wesley Johnson 4,285,560
8 Anthony Randolph 7,278,078
9 Luke Ridnour 4,000,000
10 Ricky Rubio 3,741,120
11 Wayne Ellington 2,083,042
12 Malcolm Lee 762,195
13 Martell Webster 1,073,604
14 Brad Miller 848,000
65,940,031


If you renounce Beasley/Randolph or trade them for draft picks at the deadline we have nearly 12 million in cap room. There is also 11 million in salary that might be able to be traded for cap space from the right team in Ridnour/Pek/Ellington.

[Saltine]

Hayward is gone, and you missed JJ...