2012 NBA Draft

[nate33]

Question for the board:

If we end up with the #3 pick and both Davis and Drummond are off the board, should we consider trading down? I'm just not that thrilled with Sullinger or Perry Jones, and I'm not sure if Harrison Barnes will be much of an upgrade over Singleton (assuming Singleton continues to hone his jumper). What if we could somehow acquire, say, the 6th pick and the 9th pick? We could come away with someone like Robinson or Henson PLUS Gilchrist.

The difference between you and I is that I am thrilled with Barnes and would be happy with Sullinger and Jones.

Singleton, at his best is a lockdown defender and good-but-not-great spot-up shooter. That's role player material, albeit a great one. Nothing about his game says potential running mate for John Wall. You potentially get that out of Barnes, Jones and maybe Sullinger.

I still worry about Barnes. He seems like a reincarnation of Calbert Cheaney to me. He doesn't get to the basket at all, which means he doesn't get to the free throw line, which means his shooting efficiency is unlikely to impress. I'm hesitant at drafting a jumpshooting SF with the #3 pick in the draft. Is it really much of an advantage to have your SF also have a quality midrange game in addition to a 3-point shot? I'd rather he just shoot from 21 feet rather than off the dribble at 17 feet. And if that's all we need, then Singleton can do it while bringing more defense.

I say all this after watching him last season. I haven't seen him play more than a couple of minutes this year. If he has developed a Carmelo Anthonyesque post game, or a better handle that he can use to get to the rim, then I would change my mind. But if he's the same basic player as last year, I don't want him at #3. (I wouldn't mind him in the 6-9 range though.)

[nate33]

Sev, I don't know how much cap space we have this season, but maybe it's enough to pull off a BOYD deal to get a late 1st. This draft looks to be deep in quality, so it could help. Maybe we could help a team avoid the lux tax and pick up a pick - as long as the contract we pick up is an expiring. Does anyone know what our cap space looks like for this season?

I think we have about $6 or $7 million. I don't have my spreadsheet with me right now.

I don't think it's that much. We have Bibby's dead money at a little over a million plus Evans plus Mason so I don't know that the cap room is more than a few million.

ESPN's Trade Machine says we have $13.3M but it doesn't account for Vesley's, Singleton's and Mack's salary; nor does it count Mo Evans or Bibby. If memory serves, Vesely makes about $4M, Singleton a little less than $2M, Mack less than $1M, and Mo Evans around $1M. That leaves us with about $6M

[fishercob]

Question for the board:

If we end up with the #3 pick and both Davis and Drummond are off the board, should we consider trading down? I'm just not that thrilled with Sullinger or Perry Jones, and I'm not sure if Harrison Barnes will be much of an upgrade over Singleton (assuming Singleton continues to hone his jumper). What if we could somehow acquire, say, the 6th pick and the 9th pick? We could come away with someone like Robinson or Henson PLUS Gilchrist.

I'd definitely consider. We need so much help. if we're very unlikely to land a superstar at 3, the idea has serious merit.

I also would be all about adding picks in this draft however possible -- late ones, mid-round, whatever. Trade for them, buy them. Maybe Utah or someone lands a top 2 pick and doesn't want to take a big -- but they'd happily trade down for 3 firsts. Or for Mcgee and 5 and 18, ya know? Bottom line is that if this draft is as deep as it appears, extra picks will serve us in some fashion or another.

[fishercob]

Now, obviously I've done some cherry picking here. (And stretched the definiton of "the teens", but you get the point.)

What do these guys have in common?

All were either Juniors or Seniors, playing a minimum of 3 years NCAA ball.
All had some sort of supposed limitation - usually physical, and often size.
Their draft stock among the "experts" was lower than it ever should have been.

And when you look at those drafts, there are a sea of underclassmen and international players all around them, all with supposedly higher "upside." And where are those guys now? Many of them (hi, Oleksiy!) have washed out or never even made it to the League. (Yes, of course - some have hit and stuck, but I like the track record of these guys better)

So - point is, I wouldn't turn up my nose at a mid-1st rounder, and would be ready to take on a bad contract to get one. The issue is - who do you pick? Look at the last two Wiz picks in this range. Do you like the International kid with the upside (Seraphin) or the NCAA Upperclassman (Singleton) better?

It's really hard to draw conclusions without seeing the full data set, Sev. Guys like Derrick Byars, Terrence Williams, Jordan Hill, Joe Alexander, Brandon Rush, Julian Wright, Al Thornton have all had minimal impacts. Goran Dragic, Gallinari, Omer Asik, Ibaka, Batum, Sefolosha have all been pretty good. I'd be really cautious to make any sweeping conclusions without seeing comprehensive and well organized data.

You do broach an important point, though -- just how critical this draft is. The Wizards simply can't afford to take Eddy Curry or Kwame Brown over a Shane Battier. They probably can't wait for a Tyson Chandler. If they gamble, they better be damn sure they're getting Gasol and not Desagana Diop or Eddie Griffin, ya know?

So if they do go safer with their own pick (Sullinger over Perry Jones, for instance), I may be philosophically OK with them going international with a later pick, over say, Mason Plumlee. But we absolutely need at least one sure thing.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Question for the board:

If we end up with the #3 pick and both Davis and Drummond are off the board, should we consider trading down? I'm just not that thrilled with Sullinger or Perry Jones, and I'm not sure if Harrison Barnes will be much of an upgrade over Singleton (assuming Singleton continues to hone his jumper). What if we could somehow acquire, say, the 6th pick and the 9th pick? We could come away with someone like Robinson or Henson PLUS Gilchrist.

Thomas Robinson will be off the board before 6. I would pick him third.

I do not like Barnes or Jones. Those guys go in stealth mode at crunch time--you cannot find them.

If the Wizards had the 6th and the 9th picks, that would be better than having the third. I love Kidd-Gilchrist and Henson. There are others I need to see more of. Brad Beal might be up there. By the end of this season, Alex Len might actually be up there if he proves strong enough. Yeah, I said that way too early ....

Right now, nate, I think Anthony Davis is THE franchise player in this draft. I think I like Robinson more Drummond, but you gotta take the big man because he's the most Shaq-like.

Also, the way Wall's playing, don't rule out drafting the best PG in the lottery, either. Never know but a Wall trade could be the equivalent of trading Herschel Walker.

[LyricalRico]

Adding yet another two rookies? I dunno, nate. If we were to do that, I'd expect a serious consolidation trade (or trades) to get some solid vets on the roster.

[Ruzious]

I would lean towards Yes on nate's question at this point. There could be some real top notch talent at 9 in this draft. If a guy like Meyers Leonard develops and goes in the 2012 draft - he's a legitimately gifted 7 footer who could push people down (I don't want him for the Wiz, cuz I think it'll take him a while to develop NBA toughness.). And guys like Austin Rivers and Brad Beal could affect the top half of the lottery. And Sullinger could slip to 6 - where I would snatch him up in a heartbeat. I could actually see HarBar slipping to 9 for the reasons Nate gave - and he'd be a great fit here, because we don't need him to create. If we'd end up with both Sullinger and HarBar, I'd be loving life - and I think John Wall would be ecstatic.

[Severn Hoos]

It's really hard to draw conclusions without seeing the full data set, Sev.

Guilty as charged. As mentioned, I definitely did some cherry picking there. But I do think the overall trend is there in the noise somewhere...

Guys like Derrick Byars,

Wait, did you just start your list to shoot down my point that college Seniors taken in the teens tend to be better bets by referencing a guy who was taken #42 overall? And knowing that he left my school to go and help another school make the tourney? I'm taking the bus, and you will NOT see me at the pancake social tomorrow.

Terrence Williams, Jordan Hill, Joe Alexander, Brandon Rush, Julian Wright, Al Thornton have all had minimal impacts.

You make a good point here, and it's one I had in the back of my mind but not fully formed when I made the first post. There are a number of Upperclassmen, like several of the ones you mentioned here, who were unremarkable for a couple years, then had a "breakout year" in college, declared for the Draft, and then disappeared from sight. Jordan Hill is the best example, but we could add Herbert Hill, Hilton Armstrong, Kirk Snyder, Luke Babbit, Ike Diogu, Antoine Wright, the list goes on and on.

I think what I was getting at is that I want to see a steady progression, not a one-season flash, whether that flash comes in the Freshman or Junior year. Prove to me over time that you can handle the rigors of D1 NCAA ball, and I'm more likely to believe you'll survive in the NBA cauldron.

Goran Dragic, Gallinari, Omer Asik, Ibaka, Batum, Sefolosha have all been pretty good. I'd be really cautious to make any sweeping conclusions without seeing comprehensive and well organized data.

Yep, there are a few International guys who have done well - and for the most part, the same principle applies. Pau Gasol was an MVP before he was drafted. Pecherov warmed the bench. Everyone wants to hammer European coaches for not playing young guys, favoring the vets, etc. But in the end, for the most part, it looks like the guys who were not getting many minutes in Europe (KSera?) should be cautionary tales in the NBA. BTW, this one works in Vesely's favor, I hope he proves his mettle in time.

You do broach an important point, though -- just how critical this draft is. The Wizards simply can't afford to take Eddy Curry or Kwame Brown over a Shane Battier. They probably can't wait for a Tyson Chandler. If they gamble, they better be damn sure they're getting Gasol and not Desagana Diop or Eddie Griffin, ya know?

So if they do go safer with their own pick (Sullinger over Perry Jones, for instance), I may be philosophically OK with them going international with a later pick, over say, Mason Plumlee. But we absolutely need at least one sure thing.

Agreed again. They simply can't blow this one. In your example, I definitely take Sullinger over Agent P, but I think I'd still look to get another fairly sure thing with a later pick in the 1st, if they find a way to acquire one. 2nd rounders can be for fliers - and ours should be right at the top....

[Severn Hoos]

Question for the board:

If we end up with the #3 pick and both Davis and Drummond are off the board, should we consider trading down? I'm just not that thrilled with Sullinger or Perry Jones, and I'm not sure if Harrison Barnes will be much of an upgrade over Singleton (assuming Singleton continues to hone his jumper). What if we could somehow acquire, say, the 6th pick and the 9th pick? We could come away with someone like Robinson or Henson PLUS Gilchrist.

Not only would I do this, but I might be tempted to make the deal if we're sitting at #2, and the offer is right. For example, if we had the #2 pick and Davis goes #1, I would take Drummond. Then, I'd hold a bit of an auction. What do you have for me? If I could come away with Sullinger and Beal/Lamb, then I would let someone else groom Drummond and hope for the best. Or take an All-Star level player plus a pick (Horford?) I know, heresy, right? But we do have to start winning sometime, it can't always be all about the future potential.

Lyrical - the thing about some of these guys (especially Sullinger and Lamb, IMO) is that they will be pretty mature for NBA rookies. We're used to seeing immaturity, undeveloped skills, and general knuckleheadedness from our recent draft picks. Hopefully that wouldn't be the case with these guys.

So yeah, if I'm at 3, I would definitely consider moving down for 6 & 9, there's bound to be 2 very good players there.

EDIT to add: In my #2 scenario above, I take Drummond because if the right deal doesn't come along, then I'm happy to be "stuck" with him. I'm not trying to move him, just saying that it could be a possibility.

[sfam]

Question for the board:

If we end up with the #3 pick and both Davis and Drummond are off the board, should we consider trading down? I'm just not that thrilled with Sullinger or Perry Jones, and I'm not sure if Harrison Barnes will be much of an upgrade over Singleton (assuming Singleton continues to hone his jumper). What if we could somehow acquire, say, the 6th pick and the 9th pick? We could come away with someone like Robinson or Henson PLUS Gilchrist.

Wow, that's tough. First thing though, I think our ratings of these players change dramatically over the course of this year. Sullinger, who, now has apparently a longer wingspan and an extra inch of height, might really make us believers this year, for instance. We might be salivating over the guy come draft time. But if things stay as they are, if we could get a #6 and #9 for the #3, I think we take it, because the draft is deep enough in the top 10 that there probably isn't that huge a dropoff.

[Ruzious]

Ya know what - just to add to nate's hypothetical - If McGee really improves this season beyond our expectations, and we end up with #2 - Drummond, I'd entertain offers.

[7-Day Dray]

Ya know what - just to add to nate's hypothetical - If McGee really improves this season beyond our expectations, and we end up with #2 - Drummond, I'd entertain offers.

Do you think Drummond can play PF with McGee?

[sfam]

Ya know what - just to add to nate's hypothetical - If McGee really improves this season beyond our expectations, and we end up with #2 - Drummond, I'd entertain offers.

Offers for McGee you mean, right?

[Ruzious]

Ya know what - just to add to nate's hypothetical - If McGee really improves this season beyond our expectations, and we end up with #2 - Drummond, I'd entertain offers.

Do you think Drummond can play PF with McGee?

I don't think it'd be an ideal situation - not sure if either is skilled enough to play PF,

[Ruzious]

Ya know what - just to add to nate's hypothetical - If McGee really improves this season beyond our expectations, and we end up with #2 - Drummond, I'd entertain offers.

Offers for McGee you mean, right?

Drummond - he'd have more trade value, and it's hard to get full value for an RFA - McGee. Again, the hypothetical in that scenario is that McGee exceeds expectations.

[Benjammin]

I think we have about $6 or $7 million. I don't have my spreadsheet with me right now.

I don't think it's that much. We have Bibby's dead money at a little over a million plus Evans plus Mason so I don't know that the cap room is more than a few million.

ESPN's Trade Machine says we have $13.3M but it doesn't account for Vesley's, Singleton's and Mack's salary; nor does it count Mo Evans or Bibby. If memory serves, Vesely makes about $4M, Singleton a little less than $2M, Mack less than $1M, and Mo Evans around $1M. That leaves us with about $6M

It doesn't account for Mason or Nick Young either apparently. So your 6 or 7 million is now down to just a few million.

[Mizerooskie]

I think we'd have to jump all over Davis if he's available, but I'd be happy with anywhere in the top 5.

I too, am in the mindset that I'd like a player over a project. It's why I'm a big fan of Sullinger and Barnes.

On Sullinger, I'm not that concerned with his "below the rim" game, due to his skilled post game, basketball intelligence, and effectiveness at using his ample rump to create space. He reminds me a bit of Zach Randolph in that way. To my untrained eyes, he seems to have a decent wingspan. Hopefully he measures out well, and doesn't have T-Rex arms. That'd be the only time I'd be concerned about his prospects in the NBA.

On Barnes, I think the Calbert Cheaney comparisons are misplaced. Barnes will be a much better shooter and scorer than Cheaney ever was. I think he'll be much closer to Reggie Miller than Calbert Cheaney. Just needs to develop the late-game killer instinct and relentlessness running off screens. The kid has the potential to be the best shooter in the NBA. That's something that's tough to pass up.

[B-easy]

Tony Wroten Jr the freshman Guard from Washington (state). We should seriously consider him if we have a top 10 pick. He might be the most talented freshman in the country.

[Mr. Grundle]

Another freshman guard, Eli Carter of Rutgers, outshined Brad Beal last night. Kid was incredible, couldn't miss a shot down the stretch in a huge game.

[theboomking]

Tony Wroten Jr the freshman Guard from Washington (state). We should seriously consider him if we have a top 10 pick. He might be the most talented freshman in the country.

Tony Wroten wouldn't be a bad second pick. He has Wall/Rose/Westbrook athleticism, and is taller than all 3. His stats this year are pretty good, 16.8ppg, 4.8rpg, 3.2APG, .503FG%, .286 3Pt%, .543FT%, 1.66Stl, 6.75FTA, 0Blk, 4.25 TO in 26.75min. He is the kind of guy you could take at 12-15 and hope to develop into a very tradeable commodity. I'd love to take him if we could get a high enough pick on a BOYD type deal, or if he drops low enough that we could buy his pick. I think Wroten probably should go in the mid to late teens, as he hasn't shown any ability to distribute the ball and may not exactly have a position, but the success of the Westbrook pick may push Wroten into the top 10.

With regards to trading the rights to Drummond if we win the 2nd pick, unless Drummond turns things around, I would be all for it. Drummond reminds me of a Kwame Brown or JaVale McGee. Whatever 'it' is, Drummond doesn't have it. My board for the Wizards probably looks like:

Group A
(1)Davis
(2)Lamb
(3)Gilchrist
(4)Harrison Barnes
(5)Drummond

Group B (no order yet)
Thomas Robinson
Jared Sullinger
Perry Jones
Tony Wroten
Brad Beal
Jon Henson


Group C (no order yet)
Terrence Ross
Austin Rivers
Meyers Leonard
Terrence Jones
Patric Young

I would waaaayyyy rather have Lamb and Thomas Robinson than Drummond at this point.