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Jays are a fourth-place team heading into New Year

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Jays are a fourth-place team heading into New Year 

Post#1 » by LittleOzzy » Fri Dec 30, 2011 2:24 am

The Jays had a well-defined shopping list of roster needs heading into the current off-season. They have taken care of some of that business, purchased or traded for other items on that list, but there's still much work to be done and so little time. As it stands right now, they are no better than a fourth place team in the AL East, and not much better than .500 given that the development of young players is never a predictable curve.

The Jays' young general manager, Alex Anthopoulos has filled some of his stated needs, starting with backup catcher Jeff Mathis, second baseman Kelly Johnson and closer Sergio Santos. The Jays still need some experienced bullpen depth, led by one lefthanded specialist, and they most definitely still need that much-talked about mid-to-top-of-the-rotation starter.

Much has been made of how they can get that missing piece in the wake of the multiple prospect hauls by first the Padres for Mat Latos and then by the A's for Gio Gonzalez. Clearly, the Cubs would be willing to listen to offers and to part with their young-veteran starter Matt Garza in the right package, with ESPN Chicago's Bruce Levine speculating that the right package from the Jays would have to include an outfielder like Jake Marisnick or Anthony Gose AND a young starter like Kyle Drabek or Deck McGuire. That looks like a reporter thumbing through Baseball America's 2011 Prospect Handbook and coming out with names of outfielders and starting pitchers. It's too much for Garza, but there are other ways to approach the Cubs and the familiar thinking of Theo Epstein.

That Garza rumour also helps explain why Anthopoulos prefers to remain so secretive about what teams he is dealing with and what players he covets. He does not want the package of prospects necessary to complete a trade to be ratcheted up by public speculation and other GMs that may come into the discussion late because they have heard of the Jays interest. The theory is if they don't get said player, they will at least make it more expensive for a competing team like the Jays to make themselves better.

So while public speculation had the Jays interested in Andrew Bailey from the A's, or Huston Street from the Rockies to fill the need for a closer, Anthopoulos was pestering Chisox GM Kenny Williams to make Santos available even though the Sox closer had just been signed to a four-year plus two option years sweetheart of a deal for the club and who, after all, trades a player at a key position that they just signed to a multi-year deal. Apparently Williams. Sos is John Danks, five-year deal in hand, feeling all that secure?


http://thestar.blogs.com/baseball/2011/ ... -team.html
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Re: Jays are a fourth-place team heading into New Year 

Post#2 » by baulderdash77 » Fri Dec 30, 2011 3:25 pm

I pretty much agree with the above. We are clearly a 4th place team and we haven't really done anything substantial to make ourself better.

A full season of Lawrie gets us a extra few wins, Santos gets us an extra few wins. Maybe Cecil comes back in better shape and gets us a few wins. Everything else is outs and takes. So I see us at 85 or 86 wins and watching the playoffs again from 4th place.
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Re: Jays are a fourth-place team heading into New Year 

Post#3 » by Skin Blues » Fri Dec 30, 2011 4:53 pm

Santos won't get us a couple more wins. We had Francisco, Frasor, Rzep, Dotel last year and replaced them with basically Sergio Santos. That's not an improvement. The offense is a big improvement on how we started last year but the pitching is worse, with the off-years for Drabek and Cecil and losing most of our bullpen.
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Re: Jays are a fourth-place team heading into New Year 

Post#4 » by torontoaces04 » Fri Dec 30, 2011 5:20 pm

My reaction to this article is pretty much the same as it's been to all things Jays related lately:

*Sigh*
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Re: Jays are a fourth-place team heading into New Year 

Post#5 » by Skin Blues » Sat Dec 31, 2011 7:22 pm

Carlos Quentin to the Padres for two middling pitcher prospects. Guess the $7.5M was too much to pay for a LF/DH upgrade for 2012.
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Re: Jays are a fourth-place team heading into New Year 

Post#6 » by Raps in 4 » Sat Dec 31, 2011 7:28 pm

baulderdash77 wrote:I pretty much agree with the above. We are clearly a 4th place team and we haven't really done anything substantial to make ourself better.

A full season of Lawrie gets us a extra few wins, Santos gets us an extra few wins. Maybe Cecil comes back in better shape and gets us a few wins. Everything else is outs and takes. So I see us at 85 or 86 wins and watching the playoffs again from 4th place.


+1
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Re: Jays are a fourth-place team heading into New Year 

Post#7 » by Raps in 4 » Sat Dec 31, 2011 7:30 pm

Skin Blues wrote:Carlos Quentin to the Padres for two middling pitcher prospects. Guess the $7.5M was too much to pay for a LF/DH upgrade for 2012.


We don't want Rogers going bankrupt because of us.
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Re: Jays are a fourth-place team heading into New Year 

Post#8 » by wbbfan » Sat Dec 31, 2011 11:13 pm

UssjTrunks wrote:
Skin Blues wrote:Carlos Quentin to the Padres for two middling pitcher prospects. Guess the $7.5M was too much to pay for a LF/DH upgrade for 2012.


We don't want Rogers going bankrupt because of us.


Or we are trying to finally give snider a chance to prove if he can turn his very good minor league career into a real mlber instead of pushing his progressiong and thames back for another stop gap vet who wouldnt yield much of an improvement in wins. People need to start thinking up fresh ideas instead of the same tired old rogers junk.
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Re: Jays are a fourth-place team heading into New Year 

Post#9 » by Parataxis » Sun Jan 1, 2012 12:24 am

Skin Blues wrote:Carlos Quentin to the Padres for two middling pitcher prospects. Guess the $7.5M was too much to pay for a LF/DH upgrade for 2012.


+1. When I look at our roster, I can't help but think that we don't have nearly enough Left Fielders.
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Re: Jays are a fourth-place team heading into New Year 

Post#10 » by Skin Blues » Sun Jan 1, 2012 1:43 am

I'm talking about MLB left fielders, not PCL superstars. The reason we have so many left fielders in the mix is because none of them are good enough to be a full-time starter.
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Re: Jays are a fourth-place team heading into New Year 

Post#11 » by wbbfan » Sun Jan 1, 2012 4:46 am

Skin Blues wrote:I'm talking about MLB left fielders, not PCL superstars. The reason we have so many left fielders in the mix is because none of them are good enough to be a full-time starter.


Every prospect since jon olerude has gone through the minors and you dont get to the next level of the minors and eventually to the mlb by sucking at the previous level. Its called developing talent. Snider has never gotten a fair shake at the mlb level. We had a few mlb out fielders last year and they didnt get us any were. Or say the cruz jr, raul mondesi, shannon stewart out field. Were in a building cycle. Not a buy what ever vet we can to try and prop up a diying core.
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Re: Jays are a fourth-place team heading into New Year 

Post#12 » by Randle McMurphy » Sun Jan 1, 2012 9:05 am

baulderdash77 wrote:I pretty much agree with the above. We are clearly a 4th place team and we haven't really done anything substantial to make ourself better.

A full season of Lawrie gets us a extra few wins, Santos gets us an extra few wins. Maybe Cecil comes back in better shape and gets us a few wins. Everything else is outs and takes. So I see us at 85 or 86 wins and watching the playoffs again from 4th place.

If the Jays are currently a 85 win team right now (and they just might be), there is really little excuse for not signing a player like Fielder who would propel them into contention while Bautista is still in his prime.
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Re: Jays are a fourth-place team heading into New Year 

Post#13 » by Randle McMurphy » Sun Jan 1, 2012 9:08 am

Skin Blues wrote:Carlos Quentin to the Padres for two middling pitcher prospects. Guess the $7.5M was too much to pay for a LF/DH upgrade for 2012.

We're just lucky KJ accepted arbitration and pushed Teahen down to the 3rd highest paid player on the team. You know, assuming they don't trade KJ and also go cheap at 2B.
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Re: Jays are a fourth-place team heading into New Year 

Post#14 » by baulderdash77 » Mon Jan 2, 2012 1:55 am

Randle McMurphy wrote:
baulderdash77 wrote:I pretty much agree with the above. We are clearly a 4th place team and we haven't really done anything substantial to make ourself better.

A full season of Lawrie gets us a extra few wins, Santos gets us an extra few wins. Maybe Cecil comes back in better shape and gets us a few wins. Everything else is outs and takes. So I see us at 85 or 86 wins and watching the playoffs again from 4th place.

If the Jays are currently a 85 win team right now (and they just might be), there is really little excuse for not signing a player like Fielder who would propel them into contention while Bautista is still in his prime.


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Re: Jays are a fourth-place team heading into New Year 

Post#15 » by kavan » Tue Jan 3, 2012 11:14 am

I think adding Jason Frazer helps us a bit but our offense is much more improved then last year hopefully Lind brings a big bat this spring!
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Re: Jays are a fourth-place team heading into New Year 

Post#16 » by WpgPage » Tue Jan 3, 2012 7:52 pm

As I said in the offseason thread I think the team is in the 86-90 win range depending on breaks injuries ect.. Not a playoff team and probably still a 4th place team but solid progress none the less, if we are the 4th place team but are 6 or 7 games back of the division that has to be viewed as excellent progress. With the oldest non pen player being in his age 31 season as well, this may still be a 4th place team but it is a much improved 4th place team, in any other division you would be talking about the Jays as the 2/3 (except the AL west now). Griff does cover the additions that have been made but he really makes it seam like we are still stuck on a treadmill when clearly this is not the case, solid progress has been made by the front office it just wasn't all in November and December rather in July and August. I don't think a lot of the average fans really appreciate how much better this team is now that it was a year ago at this time.
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Re: Jays are a fourth-place team heading into New Year 

Post#17 » by Lateral Quicks » Wed Jan 4, 2012 12:46 am

If you believe this is a 86-90 win team (I do too), I'd say the odds are good that would imply a 3rd place team at least. It's highly implausible with the imbalanced schedule for there to be four 90+ win teams in the same division.

We should be better than Tampa this year (then again, I thought we were last year too). With net roster improvement and/or luck, I really believe this team could snag one of the two wild cards. Adding a big bat (or seeing Lind repeat 2009 or Snider exploding) or a #1-3 starter could really increase our chances significantly. It's going to be a real dogfight this year.
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Re: Jays are a fourth-place team heading into New Year 

Post#18 » by flatjacket1 » Wed Jan 4, 2012 1:53 am

Lateral Quicks wrote:If you believe this is a 86-90 win team (I do too), I'd say the odds are good that would imply a 3rd place team at least. It's highly implausible with the imbalanced schedule for there to be four 90+ win teams in the same division.

We should be better than Tampa this year (then again, I thought we were last year too). With net roster improvement and/or luck, I really believe this team could snag one of the two wild cards. Adding a big bat (or seeing Lind repeat 2009 or Snider exploding) or a #1-3 starter could really increase our chances significantly. It's going to be a real dogfight this year.


This is a great point, every win we gain within the division is a loss for somebody else. I personally see this team at 85 wins going into this season, unless other moves are made.
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