Unlikely voice of optimism

[Tirion]

Kevin Pelton and Basketball Prospectus released their SCHOENE projections for 2011-12 and it has the Wolves fighting for a playoff spot with Houston and Memphis and in the tier above projected lottery teams (Warriors, Hornets, Suns, King, Jazz):

SCHOENE’s most surprising projection is that the Timberwolves will go all the way from the West cellar to the playoff race. Not only was Minnesota’s point differential better than last season’s record would indicate, the Timberwolves have improved substantially by adding point guard phenom Ricky Rubio and No. 2 overall pick Derrick Williams. The biggest upgrade might be on the sideline, where new coach Rick Adelman replaces the overmatched Kurt Rambis.

This is it, bitches! Now we have actual statistical analysis to hang our hats on!

[Tirion]

After first week and a half it looks like:

OKC will run away with the top spot in the West and it's not even close.

Portland looks solid.

Clippers will go through some growing pains, but they have too much talent not to contend.

Spurs are doing what they always do, age be damned.

Denver will be in playoffs: young legs, solid coaching, everybody haring the ball.

Lakers should be in playoff hunt, despite Kobe being a washed-up bitch, Bynum and Gasol are just too much up front.

Houston looks like a playoffs team. but then what?

Not impressed with New Orleans, although their center situation looks nice.

New coach honeymoon is still on in Golden State.

Kings are a mess and Westphal is not helping.

Phoenix is done, stick a fork in'em.

Memphis was overrated from last season, they are very thin up front and if Z-Bo's injury is serious they may fall down hard.

Utah needs to rebuild.

Dallas have some sort of championship hangover and being old is not cool this condensed season.


Playoff locks so far:

Oklahoma City (WCF bound)
San Antonio (may fall off a bit as season progresses due to fatigue)
Portland
LA Clippers
Denver
LA Lakers (if Bynum is healthy)

Bottom feeders a.k.a. The Tank:

Phoenix (old as balls)
Sacramento (they need to either trade Cousins or fire Westphal ASAP)
Utah (start the rebuild, tank for a pick!)
New Orleans (pretty easy schedule so far and 0.5 record, going to fall off really soon, just not enough talent)

Need to turn thing around soon:

Dallas (championship hangover and bad offseason will do that to you)
Memphis (they pretty much rolled over after Z-Bo's injury, doesn't bode well for championship aspirations)

No-man's land:

Houston (a solid team, but not enough talent to really do anything, which shouldn't sit well with Morey)

Up and coming:

Golden State (still don't believe in Mark Jackson, how long will the honeymoon last?)
Minnesota (8th seed baby, leggo!)

[Peezo]

I really think we can finish 8-10. Good assessment so far. It is going to be down to us MEM, PHX, and GS for spot 8. I'd give Dallas a spot in the playoffs even though they just got their asses whooped in TC.

[theGreatRC]

7th and 8thi seeds are up for grabs.

-Eric Gordon has been in and out with injuries since his rookie year, he was even out last night.
-Clippers should be a playoff team, but again, Can you rely on Cp3 to play with a compact schedule given his injury history?
-So far, Mavericks looks like they dont want to defend their title, but i think they will pick it up and be a low seed.
-Suns are done. Their best player is almost 40 and they dont have enough talent.

I think we can do this. I believe!

[Tirion]

Well, looks like Ginobili is out till early March at least with a broken hand, which instantly downgrades San-Antonio from "the locks" to "playoffs hopefuls". Duncan is pretty much done, it's amazing how similar he and KG had become. All of his points today came from jacking up long twos and he was a complete non-factor on boards. With that schedule he's gonna look very old. Blair is a nice hustle player, but scoring is not his forte and Parker can not carry this offense alone.

[jade_hippo]

Well, looks like Ginobili is out till early March at least with a broken hand, which instantly downgrades San-Antonio from "the locks" to "playoffs hopefuls". Duncan is pretty much done, it's amazing how similar he and KG had become. All of his points today came from jacking up long twos and he was a complete non-factor on boards. With that schedule he's gonna look very old. Blair is a nice hustle player, but scoring is not his forte and Parker can not carry this offense alone.

Post on 2 fronts: I'm not sure if this qualifies as a bold prediction but SAS are DONE this year, there will be no playoffs without a fundamental change in what they do.
1. you can't play Blair huge minutes either, not with the compressed schedule, just like McDysse before him his knees can't take it and after him and Splitter they are THIN.
2. Andre Drummond. Like David before him, Tim gets his protege gifted to him after an injury riddled season? Gotta love a conspiracy theory.

[theGreatRC]

Yeah, I think SA doesn't make the playoffs now that Manu is out. He was their 1st option and the main reason they got off to such a hot start this year and Duncan's game tonight was the best he's had all season(which isn't saying much). Nobody on the spurs can fill what Ginobili is leaving.