James Harden is a superstar

[tsherkin]

No, I'm saying that he's not positioned as a superstar. He's not used as one. He doesn't face the same kind of consistent defensive gameplan attacking him as a primary option, so he hasn't proven anything.

that's untrue, he wouldn't be able to create as many open looks for his teammates without consistent defensive attention. in every game of this season Harden was always double teamed in the pick and roll situations and if he wasn't he drove to the lane and forced FTA. whenever Harden is playing with the ball, defense makes him a primary focus and still can't stop him from making a good play.

This actually respond to the point I made, not seriously. Anyway, I'm not saying as the primary focus of a defense he would magically be unable to play the game at a high level. You're right in that when Harden is on without Durant and Westbrook, he's the best OKC player on the floor, so he becomes the focus.

But he isn't the guy the opposition gameplans to stop ahead of time, he's just a guy who they have to handle as a primary option in small bursts, it's really not at all the same thing.

he can still put up 60+% TS quite easily.

I don't disagree that he could be a 58%+ TS player, hypothetically speaking. He hits a decent FG%, and even without his unsustainable DrawF, he typically draws at a decent rate and is a very good FT shooter who is also typically better from downtown than he's been early this season. But 64, 65%? That's not happening as a primary option, that should be evident.

I could question most accolades in NBA's history so why put much stock in this in the first place ?

Why assume I mean accolades? He hasn't been positioned as a superstar, and I will not accept him as one until he's first of all a starter, and second of all begins to prove it through his play in that new and very different role.

There's a difference between "playing very well" and "being a superstar."

[bastillon]

A lot of fools look like they're about to break out when they're playing the 6th man, being guarded by other teams' 3rd and 4th option defenders, not to mention less minutes = higher efficiency (don't even bother arguing this).

Start the guy, let him play 40mpg and see how "superstar" he is. I don't buy it. He's a great 6th and won't be a star starter when he's guarded by better defenders and more sophisticated defensive schemes focusing on him. Watching him dribble into a double team is comedy. Conclusion: No he's not a superstar now. Not now, not later. He will never make the all-star either. I see him as a very solid starter if he ever starts. Nothing more.

what a laughable post, full of mistakes and failures. first watch him play and then say thing like "watching him dribble into a double team is a comedy". comedy is what you've just written, Harden sees double teams consistently and that's about 23 feet from the rim. he was guarded by s5 players usually, because nobody is dumb enough to throw some crap at a guy who's dismantling your defense.

conclusions:
Harden sees consistent double teams on pick and rolls
Harden has played against s5 players equally well
you never watched him play

[bastillon]

This actually respond to the point I made, not seriously. Anyway, I'm not saying as the primary focus of a defense he would magically be unable to play the game at a high level. You're right in that when Harden is on without Durant and Westbrook, he's the best OKC player on the floor, so he becomes the focus.

But he isn't the guy the opposition gameplans to stop ahead of time, he's just a guy who they have to handle as a primary option in small bursts, it's really not at all the same thing.

so what do you mean ? they can gameplan all they want for Harden, but they're already giving him a lot of defensive attention so I don't see how that could change so drastically that it wouldn't affect Harden's game in any way whatsoever.

[tsherkin]

so what do you mean ? they can gameplan all they want for Harden, but they're already giving him a lot of defensive attention so I don't see how that could change so drastically that it wouldn't affect Harden's game in any way whatsoever.

I disagree. I find that when you spend a lot of time analyzing a specific player, you get a much better feel for favorite spots, favorite plays, tendencies and best counter strategies. It's far easier to defend that guy then. Of course, a very good player with a well-rounded offensive game and/or good basic offensive support around him is going to make you play odds and "pick your poison," so to speak, and to an extent I would definitely see Harden making a team do that.

For Harden, you need to deny him transition opportunities, because he's scoring at a pretty absurd rate on those. The other big one that you'd be able to deny him more effectively with greater levels of focal defense is spot-up opportunities, because he's burning the hell out of the opposition that way. Make him rely more on isolations and the pick-and-roll, make him on-ball instead of off-ball, because the offensive returns there are good, but not AS good as when he's moving without the ball, and you can deny him those plays a little bit more effectively. He's also a LOT more turnover-prone when he's handling the ball versus when he's working off the ball, which makes sense.

Again, it's not going to magically turn him into a scrub, but as a starter, you wouldn't see 65% TS out of him if he were a superstar because the defense simply wouldn't permit it. That kind of efficiency is the province of short hot streaks and offensive roleplayers.

[bastillon]

For Harden, you need to deny him transition opportunities, because he's scoring at a pretty absurd rate on those. The other big one that you'd be able to deny him more effectively with greater levels of focal defense is spot-up opportunities, because he's burning the hell out of the opposition that way. Make him rely more on isolations and the pick-and-roll, make him on-ball instead of off-ball, because the offensive returns there are good, but not AS good as when he's moving without the ball, and you can deny him those plays a little bit more effectively. He's also a LOT more turnover-prone when he's handling the ball versus when he's working off the ball, which makes sense.

that's totally incorrect. Harden is way more effective when he's playing with the ball in his hands and he's not anything spectacular when it comes to spotting up. that's why he improved so much this year in the first place, because of his increased role in the offense as a pick and roll player.

there's also no way you can simply "deny" transition opportunities. it's not like he makes knucklehead coast2coast plays like Westbrook, he plays in transition only when the right opportunity presents itself and you can't really stop him then.

the only thing defenses could do is to clogg the lane more and make shoot jumpshots instead of attacking the rim and drawing FTA. but that has nothing to do with what you're talking about because they're just executing their gameplan and they believe that the best way to stop him is to double team him on the pick and roll.

[ComboGuardCity]

SuperStars can carry a team to the Finals. Harden most certainly cannot.

[kingkirk]

25 PER and .270 WS48. superstar is not a hyperbole at all.

7 games into a season with those stats make its a hyperbole.

[tsherkin]

that's totally incorrect. Harden is way more effective when he's playing with the ball in his hands and he's not anything spectacular when it comes to spotting up. that's why he improved so much this year in the first place, because of his increased role in the offense as a pick and roll player.

That's statistically incorrect. He's using the PnR more frequently and he's scoring with it... around as well as he did last year. You're just noticing it more; he was that good at the PnR last year, give or take, and he's actually over 1 point per possession when he's spotting up, more efficient as a scorer in those sets than he has been in the PnR.

there's also no way you can simply "deny" transition opportunities. it's not like he makes knucklehead coast2coast plays like Westbrook, he plays in transition only when the right opportunity presents itself and you can't really stop him then.

Sure you can. You won't always be successful, but if you recognize that a particular player does more damage in transition than anyone else and that he does his most effective work scoring in those scenarios, then you pay more attention and exert more effort towards slowing him down in transition.

[lukekarts]

I don't know where to start on this. I might just skip straight to the end and say "no, you're wrong".

He's a good 3rd option right now, not a superstar. One 12.2ppg season and a good run of 7 games does not make someone a superstar.

[franktony]

OKC fans have to calm down a little bit. Not even Manu is a superstar. How can a poor's man version of Manu be one ?

"25 PER and .270 WS48. superstar is not a hyperbole at all."

This numbers in a small sample don't mean much.

Wanna know Manu's numbers so far this season ?

35 PER / .389 WS48 / 77.6% TS . If Harden's numbers are superstar numbers, what can we say about Manu's numbers? megastar numbers?

[bastillon]

that's totally incorrect. Harden is way more effective when he's playing with the ball in his hands and he's not anything spectacular when it comes to spotting up. that's why he improved so much this year in the first place, because of his increased role in the offense as a pick and roll player.

That's statistically incorrect. He's using the PnR more frequently and he's scoring with it... around as well as he did last year. You're just noticing it more; he was that good at the PnR last year, give or take, and he's actually over 1 point per possession when he's spotting up, more efficient as a scorer in those sets than he has been in the PnR.

there's also no way you can simply "deny" transition opportunities. it's not like he makes knucklehead coast2coast plays like Westbrook, he plays in transition only when the right opportunity presents itself and you can't really stop him then.

Sure you can. You won't always be successful, but if you recognize that a particular player does more damage in transition than anyone else and that he does his most effective work scoring in those scenarios, then you pay more attention and exert more effort towards slowing him down in transition.

your data must be wrong then. how can he be effective in spot up this season when he's shooting 3s at 27% and that's mostly what he does when spotting up. based on the eye test, not synergy numbers, Harden is WAY more effective when he's involved in the offense.

as for transition, can you bring up any specific examples ?

[tsherkin]

your data must be wrong then. how can he be effective in spot up this season when he's shooting 3s at 27% and that's mostly what he does when spotting up. based on the eye test, not synergy numbers, Harden is WAY more effective when he's involved in the offense.

Yes, the data doesn't match your assertion, so the data must be wrong...

Listen, I watched the possessions. He's got about twice as many opportunities to isolate and PnR than he has spot-ups, and the spot-ups are indeed mostly threes. But on those possessions, he's been hitting them to a degree sufficient to have him at around +0.4 points per possession over his PnR scoring attempts. When you consider effective field goal percentage, fouls and a bunch of other stuff, it's really not a surprise. We're talking about 16 possessions so far this year, but it's a trend borne out by last season as well.

Anyway, I think you're reacting over-aggressively to my assertion; I'm not saying he's not good at the PnR. It's functionally apparent to anyone with eyes that he's been very good handling the ball in those situations so far this season and really all of last season as well. He's been getting about the same payout this season to date as he did last year, and it's a very good pay-out.

My point, though, is that his efficiency is through the roof on his off-ball game; he's a remarkable player when he's not handling the ball, and the mix of what he CAN do with the ball and what he does setting himself up without it makes for a very impressive offensive threat, which forms the basis of my earlier comment on my belief that Harden does have very high potential.

But high potential and excelling in a 6th Man role are not the same as already BEING a superstar, which is what I've been saying. Surely the potential is there, but he's not a superstar just because he plays well with the second unit in 6th-man type minutes... and don't bother mentioning the 32 mpg he's played so far this year, 7 games do not in any way, shape or form comprise a reliable sample. Particularly when the sample is defined by his absurd and unsustainable FTA/FGA rate.

Harden has been very good, let's not spoil it with ridiculous assertions.

as for transition, can you bring up any specific examples ?

What, defensively? There's only so much you can do, but not sending your guard to crash the glass is a start, trying to work your shooting guard deeper into the offensive zone would be an effective start because it'd make Harden have to run farther (so we're talking baseline-to-baseline action, sending James chasing after him around screens, etc) and so forth.

More than that, you'd be looking to slow the pace of the game down a little, settle your offense into place and keep your guards back so that they don't get burned. It means you'd have to rely a little more on your half-court offense, but given the pay-out Harden is getting (nearly 1.4 PPS) on transition buckets, well, it's worth it. And he's not the only one on the Thunder benefiting heavily from those possessions, as is to be expected with the nature of the plays and their athletic ability.

[bastillon]

I'm not questioning your data because it doesn't support my point. I just have experience using this kind of stuff and I know how easily you can misinterpret the results. pnr data in synergy doesn't take everything to account, not even close actually. I know damn sure Harden wasn't particularly good in spot-up 3s this year so that's so apparently wrong I don't need to look at any numbers to know this. how could you even rationally explain 27% 3pt shooter to be a phenomenal spot up threat ?

anyway what you said at the start, that Harden is better working off ball is completely false and everyone who watches OKC play consistently knows this. I'm not even trying to diss you or anything, you know I respect you a hell lot, but in this case I don't think you have been following Harden's game as closely as you perhaps should've to make these kind of assertions. based on the eye test though, Harden is not a guy who you would wanna leave wide open, but we're not talking about Reggie Miller either. but as a guy who runs the pick and roll he has been nearly unstoppable this season and that's what makes me particularly unwilling to admit he's better off of if he's playing without the ball in his hands. not with the way OKC's offense functions with him on ball. as I said, their 2nd unit is usually playing better than first unit. partly because of how terrible Westbrook has been so far, but even accounting for that, it's not an explanation why they're blowing away their opposition. this is with Harden as #1 option offensively playing ON BALL.

I understand we should focus on objective data but when the statistical result is so far from the eye test I always go with my gut.

as for transition defense... teams rarely sent their guards to crash to board in the first place, we're not living in the 80s anymore. as for slowing down the game vs OKC, teams are trying to do that anyway because of how dangerous Westbrook and Durant are in transition. you're not breaking any new ground here. with your adjustments in place Harden is still great in transition...

[bastillon]

I've just watched games 4 and 5 of last year's playoffs and Harden had a superstar impact back then as well. he was out of synch in game 4 but still made some very good plays in the pick and rolls and when he fouled out with 5 mins to go, Dallas went on 24-6 run to win the game. in game 5 Dallas led in the first quarter, Durant came out, with Harden as OKC's primary playmaker 10 pt turnaround in couple of mins and OKC regains the lead. then Harden doesn't play in the 3rd quarter and again Dallas goes back up. seriously Harden's presence on the court is game changing impact.

[bigpoppa]

I have a hardon for James Harden. Ginobili is my 2nd favorite player, so definitely I appreciate me some Harden and I'm glad that I'll have a Ginoesque player to follow once he retires / when he is injured. I flex James Harden.

[turk3d]

One very nice game so now he's a superstar too? Oh my! Will he be starting again for you next game? I suppose next we'll be hearing he's better than Kobe. lol

[bastillon]

One very nice game so now he's a superstar too? Oh my! Will he be starting again for you next game? I suppose next we'll be hearing he's better than Kobe. lol

one nice game ?
dude have you even watched last year's playoffs ? Harden was OKC's most unstoppable player, Dallas was torched time and time again in the pick and roll, so much so that JvG and Mark Jackson thought they should go to him instead of Durant at the end of games. I've just watched that game 5 and Harden playing on ball created much better looks than either Westbrook or Durant. Harden's superstar status has little to do with his statistical dominance this season, I'm talking about his SKILLSET. dude is UN-STOP-ABLE as a pick and roll player and is probably top3 defender at SG.

and I'd like everyone to watch that game 5 because I'm tired of this nonsense that Harden is a 3rd option. he was their main playmaker for majority of the game and when that happened, OKC's offense was at its best. Harden faced enormous defensive attention but just read the defense beautifully (I think he made like 3 mistakes the whole game...). not to mention that Dallas was double teaming him consistently on the pick and roll but still could not stop him as Harden split the double team and penetrated at will and found the open man.

I'm gonna say this and you can sig me if you want. James Harden is a better pick and roll player than LeBron. there, I said it. now I'll sit back for another couple weeks and enjoy your harsh responses as Harden is going to prove you all wrong this season.

[Krodis]

OKC's offense does seem to function most smoothly with Harden and Collison on the floor, mostly because no one else on the team (including the coaches) knows what the hell they're doing in terms of team offense.

[dream_catcher_9]

His only weakness is elite shot creating ability, and even that he is getting a little bit better this season. I've seen him hit some really nice contested mid range shots this year.

He is my favorite player on the team because of his all-around ability, not to mention I love his attitude.

[slick_watts]

I'm the biggest James Harden homer and I'm happy that he's getting this kind of recognition, deserved or not. Many fans might not know how far Harden has had to come in the eyes of his own coach to even get the 30mpg he's currently getting. No player on the Thunder has had a shorter leash in the last couple of seasons. He should have been a starter his rookie season, still isn't, and has never publicly begrudged that fact.

Anyway, I think Harden definitely has 'star' ability. tsherkin is correct about his DrawF rate, that's not going to continue. But I think he isn't shooting as well as he could either, and remaining a ~58-60% TS scorer on 20+ USG is quite possible for Harden in any role. Most of his minutes have come as the number one option on the court, even with Westbrook and Durant on the floor he gets doubled on the perimeter now and again. 20/5/5 type seasons aren't out of the question for him IMO if he were given the minutes and opportunity of someone like Stephen Curry or Tyreke Evans, and I've said this for the last two years.