mopper8 wrote:Any talk of Coach of the Year now or before March really is premature. That being said, I do want to respond to a couple of pointsActually we are less efficient this year. Ortg 111.7 vs Ortg 108.1 this year.
We are less efficient, we just get more possessions because we are playing faster (which we should have been doing last year anyway)
With the increase in fast break points (high efficiency shots) but our overall drop in Ortg that means that our halfcourt offense has been WORSE this year with all of Spo's "adjustments".
This isn't really fair analysis at all. The Heat are +5.4 points over league average in Ortg this year; last season they were only +4.4. Ortg overall throughout the league is down. Punishing Spo in particular for this phenomena, when his team actually improved against league average (which means they dropped less in efficiency than the average team) seems totally irrational.
Offensive efficiency being down across the board makes complete sense considering the lockout - long layoff + short training camp means sloppier offense and worse shooting, generally.
What's more, we are looking at a small sample size skewed by the absence of the #2 option on offense for what right now amounts to a significant portion of the season. To simply say that because the raw numbers have dropped, Miami has gotten worse on offense is just a plain bad reading of the numbers. The Spurs have the #1 Ortg in the league this year, which is down a good point from the year prior. Are we going to punish Pop for his team's offensive regression? Would that make any sense? Especially considering Manu's injury?
I agree that the average offense is down and I should have taken it into account.
Our half court offense has still gotten worse.
We have picked up efficiency through more fast break points. You can credit that to Spo all you want but it doesn't take a genius to say "Lebron go be faster than everyone". If anything I think that's more a mark against Spo that we didn't run as much last year with our personnel.
We may have picked up an extra point per 100 possessions compared to the league average but we have gained more than a point per 100 possessions in transition. That means we have lost efficiency in the halfcourt offense (relative to the league) despite Spo's magical mystery tour of offensive learning.
And we are still very inconsistent. We have stretches where we are the best offense ever and others where we can't buy a bucket.
Wade has missed 3 games but even with Wade our halfcourt offense was down. Plus we have made additions and gotten rid of some guys too compared to last year that should help our offense.
If he was as respected outside of the league as you think his agent would have gotten him more money.
We've had this discussion before, but you just aren't thinking about this properly. People don't go through life assigning dollar values to every decision and then seeking to maximize their payoffs. Not everybody monetizes their entire life, and there are numerous examples (Including on our own team!) of NBA players taking less money to be in their preferred work environment. According to your way of thinking, Udonis Haslem would not be on the Heat, because other teams offered him more money than MIami did. Ditto Mike Miller and (supposedly) Shane Battier. Also, Brent Barry would've never re-signed with the Spurs, Randy Moss would never have played for New England because Tom Brady would not have restructured his contract, and on and on. People regularly take less money in exchange for other quality-of-life considerations.
Across the board, national sports writer and the local Heat beat writers report the same things: other teams love Spo. Your deduction is totally valid: its conclusions follow from the premises. The problem is, the argument is not sound because one of your premises is wrong. You have no idea what type of value, monetary or otherwise, Eric places on coaching for Miami, working for Pat Riley, coaching Wade/Lebron/Bosh, having a shot at a title every season, etc etc. All that stuff likely is worth a lot to him, certainly its plausible that its worth enough for him to take below-market value on a contract to remain with the Heat.
People do seek to maximize their payoffs, especially in their jobs. Even if you think Spo doesn't his agent sure as hell does. You think his agent was like "let me turn down this 4yr/20 million dollar contract and take this much smaller deal from the same team instead" ? Of course not if not Spo then his agent was trying to get him the best deal he could get. To think otherwise is asinine. If he was as well regarded as you guys think Riley would have offered him more.
It is YOU who is not thinking about this properly. Your examples are of players. There is a cap on player salaries. If Udonis didn't take less money to stay here he would have to leave. There is NO cap on coach salaries. The money either goes to Spo or it sits in Arison's pocket. There is absolutely NO reason for Spo or his agent to take less than he deserves. He didn't take less.
Your analysis of my conclusion is completely wrong. I NEVER said Spo should leave Miami. If he was as in demand as you think I am saying he would get a better deal TO STAY IN MIAMI. All those non-monetary benefits you mention he would still have here in Miami. He would NOT have to sacrifice or make any quality of life decisions. If he was an in demand coach he would have been offered more IN MIAMI.
There is no cap on coaches salary so there is no reason for Spo to take less to line Mickey's pockets. If Spo was so valuable they would make sure to keep him no matter what the price. Phil Jackson made as much as 12 million a year because he was in demand. Spo just isn't.
There is much more evidence that Spo took a market rate contract rather than a below-market rate contract. Your premise is that Riley low-balled one of his closest friends and Spo and his agent were too dumb to notice. I'm sorry I give more credit to Riley, Spo and his agent than that.
He (and his agent) took so little because they don't think he is as valued around the league as you do.
As for the other teams "love" Spo. I haven't seen anything other than a fluff piece mentioning that.
I'm not one of those people who think Spo sucks, I just don't think he is anything special. Average to slightly above average is where I would peg him. I do think he has the best players in the league and he did last year as well.
I would like your opinion on where you see Spo. Do you think he is the best coach in the league? How many coaches do you think could have similar or better results (losing in the finals)? Are there any coaches ever who have been better than Spo in the history of basketball or did we just get lucky that the best coach of all time just happened to be working our video machines?
