The Conundrum that is LeBron James

[C-izMe]

Do you think there is legit thought behind the "Lebron's ego holding the team back in the clutch" theory? My friend told me it would happen if Lebron stumbles a bit, but I don't think he imagined it being this bad. Skip Bayless (god I hate using his arguments) came out the other day and said that the team has failed Lebron by trying to prove the "haters" wrong.
I think most of us will agree that Wade has a better halfcourt game then Lebron, and that makes him deadlier at the end of games with all eyes on you. Lebron loses focus and confidence at the end of games, and I think it is a result of being a little weak minded. He hears how much he sucks and at the end of games it either gets to him or is in his mind. Right now it doesn't matter but in the playoffs it could be the difference between a ring and getting mad at reporters (and beaking a cardinal rule of sports).
I believe that Wade a Spo are doing a bad job by letting the lesser halfcourt player handle the ball to prove the haters wrong. They are trying to feed his ego for his confidence, but every time he doesn't play well it plummets. The other day he was happy about being aggressive and making 3-6 FTs because he hit one the tie the game and 3 to keep the Clippers in it.
Another reason for his odd performances could just be his flip floppy confidence, grouped with a giant ego. That's just something I think fit this thread well and the theme.

[Mahoney]

I read this thread, which has some interesting insights, and was composing my reply meticulously, until I read the OP name LeBron James a flashy roleplayer.

What's the point in discussing anything when you honestly believe in that?

[Wannabe MEP]

I read this thread, which has some interesting insights, and was composing my reply meticulously, until I read the OP name LeBron James a flashy roleplayer.

What's the point in discussing anything when you honestly believe in that?

Wow, a leetle bit over-dramatic, aren't we? Unbelievable...if you question the impact of guys like Lebron or Kobe, somebody always flips out and screams, "BLASPHEMY!!" Do I believe that LeBron James is a really flashy role player? In general, no. In the specific context where he's not using the gifts that make him special? Yeah.

The primary point is that he is nowhere near as valuable when he's playing off-ball, which I keep trying to say in different ways. I have no idea how that one little phrase that made you flip out dramatically changed what I was saying.

[iElusive]

I agree that LBJ is the jack of all trades and the master of none. It explains why he can't put teams over the top but can turn bad teams into playoff teams. HE doesn't know how to mesh well with others. It is kind of similar to Wilt.

[Mahoney]

I read this thread, which has some interesting insights, and was composing my reply meticulously, until I read the OP name LeBron James a flashy roleplayer.

What's the point in discussing anything when you honestly believe in that?

Wow, a leetle bit over-dramatic, aren't we? Unbelievable...if you question the impact of guys like Lebron or Kobe, somebody always flips out and screams, "BLASPHEMY!!" Do I believe that LeBron James is a really flashy role player? In general, no. In the specific context where he's not using the gifts that make him special? Yeah.

The primary point is that he is nowhere near as valuable when he's playing off-ball, which I keep trying to say in different ways. I have no idea how that one little phrase that made you flip out dramatically changed what I was saying.

Because that one little phrase is only showing your agenda instead of your honest will to objectively discuss his impact. When you want to discuss the impact of Lebron James without these boutades, let me know.

I say this with all due respect, but it's like calling Armstrong an overambitious henchman, Zidane a creative supersub or Phelps an overzealous weak spot on the relay team. It's a blatant lie, no matter which statistics you transform to suit it.

[pancakes3]

I agree that LBJ is the jack of all trades and the master of none. It explains why he can't put teams over the top but can turn bad teams into playoff teams. HE doesn't know how to mesh well with others. It is kind of similar to Wilt.

a 72 win team has a win percentage of around 87.9%. statistically speaking in a 7 game series, let's model the odds of them winning 4 games with a binomial distribution and find the results to be 95.7% of the time. the odds of them winning a series 4 times in a row to win the championship drops the odds down to 83%, which is just slightly better then 4/5. a 58 win team like last year's heat really only had a 19% chance of winning the championship.

what i mean by this isn't that i sincerely believe that miami only had a 1 in 5 chance of winning it all last season, but to keep things into perspective. there are a lot of good teams in the league with a lot of good players. lebron not winning a ring doesn't necessarily have to be part of a fatal flaw in his character or basketball skill. it's just the way things are. we shouldn't be superstitious natives and run around trying to figure out why the volcano god is angry. sometimes there isn't a definitive reason why a basketball player didn't win a championship. it's just the way things happen sometimes.

[Wannabe MEP]

What are the odds of James' on-court raw offensive rating falling from 115.53 (2009-2010) to 112.72 (2010-2011) during the regular season and from 109.83 (2010 playoffs) to 107.03 (2011 playoffs) during the postseason after teaming up with two of the top-10 offensive players in the league?

What are the odds of LeBron's one-year APM falling from +17.61 after the 2010 playoffs to +6.33 after the 2011 playoffs?

What are the odds that three of the ten best offensive players in the league would get together and produce a postseason offense that was more than 6 points per 100 possessions weaker than the offense that won the championship?

What are the odds that 2010 offensive RAPM values that said:
Wade + LeBron + Bosh = 7.6 + 7.1 + 3.2 = 17.9
would change to values that now say:
Wade + LeBron + Bosh = 3.5 + 3.5 + 1.3 = 8.3
(This despite the fact that these values are prior-informed. If they weren't prior-informed, they would be significantly lower now.)

[GreenDreamer]

LeBron James has a freakish combination of athleticism and ability. His stats are unreal. He is at the top of the list of any "best player" stat like PER, Win Shares, RAPM, etc. . He scores a ton of points, and does so efficiently. He's a very good rebounder for his position. He gets a lot of steals. He's an exceptional passer for his position. He can create his own shot as well as just about anyone. He can guard just about anyone on the court.

But he hasn't won the title.

Some say that he hasn't been in the right team situation just yet, while others claim that he lacks the killer instinct. I'm not rejecting either of those hypotheses. But let me offer a third possibility.

The pieces of a championship team
1) Elite offensive spark
2) Elite defensive frontcourt player(s)
3) Elite perimeter defender
4) Solid stretch-big
5) Solid complementary offensive spark

for example:
2011
1) Dirk
2) Chandler/Haywood
3) Marion/Kidd
4) Dirk
5) Terry/Kidd

2009, 2010
1) Kobe
2) Odom/Bynum
3) Artest/Ariza
4) Odom
5) Gasol

2008
1) Pierce
2) Garnett
3) T. Allen/Pierce
4) Garnett/Posey
5) R. Allen/Garnett/Rondo

2003, 2005, 2007
1) Duncan
2) Duncan/Horry
3) Bowen/Ginobili/Jackson
4) Horry/Jackson
5) Parker/Ginobili

2006
1) Wade
2) Shaq/Mourning/Haslem
3) Posey
4) Posey
5) Shaq

2004
1) Billups
2) Wallace/Wallace
3) Prince
4) Rasheed
5) Rip

2000-2002
1) Shaq
2) Shaq/Horry/Grant
3) Horry/Fisher/Kobe
4) Horry
5) Kobe

Jack-of-all-Trades...

The beauty of LeBron James is that he can fulfill basically every single role on there pretty well
1) LeBron -- almost Magic Johnson-like passing ability and uber-efficient scorer
2) LeBron -- seriously, who can he not guard in the post (other than 1970s Kareem)??
3) LeBron -- seriously, who can he not guard on the perimeter??
4) LeBron -- Horry, with major upgrade in explosiveness and ball-handling.
5) LeBron -- See #1

...Master of None?!?

The problem that I'm seeing: he's not really the best guy for any of these particular roles by itself. He's like a decathlete who can't win any individual events. He's almost the most versatile player imaginable, but he's not really the best at anything:

Facilitator? No. I'd take at least Nash, Paul, and Wade before him.
Scorer? Nope. Dirk, Ginobili, Wade, Kobe.
Frontcourt defender? No: Garnett, Bogut, Howard, Collison, Chuck Hayes, Josh Smith, Nene, etc.
Perimeter defender? Don't think so. Luol Deng, Tony Allen, Artest, Gerald Wallace, Battier come to mind.
Stretch-big? Dirk and, depending on the specific role, guys like Ryan Anderson, Frye, Rashard Lewis, Gerald Wallace, etc.
Shooter? Ha!

The problem is that it's relatively easy to compose a lineup that has someone who is better than (or at least roughly on par with) LeBron James for every specific role possible. The 2011 Dallas Mavericks top unit, for example:
1) Elite offensive spark = Dirk>LeBron
2) Elite defensive frontcourt player = Chandler>LeBron
3) Elite perimeter defender = Marion~LeBron
4) Solid stretch-big = Dirk>LeBron
5) Solid complementary offensive spark = Terry~LeBron

Tony Allen barely stepped on the court in 2008 for the Celtics.

[Wannabe MEP]

Tony Allen barely stepped on the court in 2008 for the Celtics.

(been over that one)

[Wannabe MEP]

ps: rather good stuff, Chicago 76

It is true that that greater basketball minds are working on issues such as this one, but that doesn't necessarily undermine the type of analysis done here on issues like this for a couple of reasons. First, those superior basketball minds are hardly infallible. They make mistakes. They compete against other basketball minds for talent. Sometimes they come out ahead. Sometimes they don't. Most importantly, those greater basketball minds are subject to competing interests when running a team, compiling talent on a roster, and getting the roster to work as a cohesive team. The GM/FO can even have interests that run counter to the immediate or long term success of the franchise. In this case:

-ownership worries about the bottom line. LBJ is costing the team $20 million per year, but he's also bringing in roughly $30 million (net of revenue sharing) in the form of advertising, increased ticket sales at higher prices, concessions due to higher attendance, etc. Regardless of fit, signing James was a good financial deal for the franchise. Drastic moves like this also give owernship credibility with the fans, so even if this doesn't work out and the Heat fall short of a title and stumble into mediocrity 5 years from now, those fans will hold fast to the belief that ownership is willing to roll the dice based upon history. At any point in time, the Heat may be one big personnel change away from being back in business. Fans won't fall off the bandwagon as quickly.

-coaching staff. They're the ones on the hook for "fit" here, and the fact that the team is being coached by a young, relatively unproven coach should tell you all you need to know. This isn't an accident. A more veteran coach with a bigger resume would hesitate in walking into a situation like this, because there it's a lose-lose proposition. Win and it's what you were supposed to do. Lose and you're out and a dominant FO type in Riley steps in.

-players, both those you are attempting to retain and those you are trying to attract. Wade was an unhappy camper prior to re-signing. Would he have been excited about Bosh + a better "fit" guy at SF? Enough to re-sign anwyway? Would Bosh have been enticed enough to join up? Keep in mind that a lot of these guys are close friends too, so that weighs into player decisions...especially for a guy with a lot of options on the table like Wade. I think players tend to underestimate "fit" issues as well because they tend to overestimate their own (and their teammates' ) abilities to alter how they play. One piece of evidence on this: USA basketball and players' bold predictions. We saw how that worked out prior to 2008. Even in 2008, they were beating Spain by a whopping 4 pts with a bit over 3 minutes left. Just something to think about. Fit is an issue. Players' time horizons also may not coincide with what is good for the franchise, balancing short term and long term interests. 5 years from now, Wade will be 34 years old with 40,000 minutes of pro basketball on his legs. Is Wade concerned about the Heat 5 years from now, or is he concerned with what he can achieve in the first 3 years of the "big 3" before his game really trails off?

-FO/GM: Riley is a dominant personality. He is also 66 years old. His age will temper what he does for the franchise. He wants to win now, even if that means sacrificing the long term future of the team. He can pass the buck to the coaching staff for problems of getting these guys to play together. If things go south midway through this season, Riley will be coaching. And again, if Riley needed to pitch these guys collectively on the idea of the Big 3 to retain Wade in the first place, it was a no brainer from his standpoint. If he's stuck in rebuilding mode with no Wade or James, he would likely walk away. Rolling the dice on this isn't a big gamble for him.

This FA cycle was good for ownership, the fans, and Riley. The players are also excited about it. About the only group who is gettin the shaft is the coaching staff, but again, these guys don't have a lot of options. They're also the ones that need to figure out how to reduce roster redundancies. This thing still may work out great. Or it may blow up. Regardless, there were probably better roster moves that could have been made for LBJs $20 million of salary (assuming Bosh and Wade are there), but these interests have a way of creeping into the equation as well.

[Wannabe MEP]

So far this season...

-The Heat's #1 unit of Chalmers-Wade-LeBron-Bosh-Anthony has on Off Rtg of 106.67. Not bad, but there are plenty of big-minute units that are quite a bit better than that.

Chalmers-Wade-LeBron-Bosh-Anthony Off Rtg 106.67
Chalmers-Jones-LeBron-Bosh-Anthony Off Rtg 121.09

-The Heat have 11 units that have played at least 20 minutes together. Of those, 4 have an Off Rtg of at least 110, none of which include both Wade and LeBron. The best offensive unit, with an Off Rtg of 123.40, has LeBron at the 4.

-Word on the street is that LeBron has developed something of a post-up game. His inside numbers are up but he's shooting a lot less threes. While that may in fact be very good for LeBron's numbers, it's very bad for spacing, which is very bad for Dwyane Wade. Wade's TS%, usage, PER, etc are all way down this year.

I've been saying all along that I don't believe that Wade and LeBron should be on the same team. I've also said that I think LeBron should be the one to go, for several reasons (Wade has a longer, better history with the Heat; Wade is better in the pick-and-roll with Bosh; Wade is the better pure creator off the dribble; LeBron has higher trade value). I'm starting to rethink that. The Heat have had a lot of success without Wade. With an inside game from the 3 and more time at the 4, LeBron could ultimately prove more valuable than Wade as the go-to guy on offense. Plus, as was mentioned earlier, LeBron has a huge advantage in longevity.

The main point is that LeBron + Wade makes about as much sense as Chris Paul + Steve Nash.

[Chicago76]

So far this season...

-Word on the street is that LeBron has developed something of a post-up game. His inside numbers are up but he's shooting a lot less threes. While that may in fact be very good for LeBron's numbers, it's very bad for spacing, which is very bad for Dwyane Wade. Wade's TS%, usage, PER, etc are all way down this year.

Why would LBJ posting up necessarily be bad for Wade's game...assuming does a good job of finding cutters and passing out of the post?

[Wannabe MEP]

So far this season...

-Word on the street is that LeBron has developed something of a post-up game. His inside numbers are up but he's shooting a lot less threes. While that may in fact be very good for LeBron's numbers, it's very bad for spacing, which is very bad for Dwyane Wade. Wade's TS%, usage, PER, etc are all way down this year.

Why would LBJ posting up necessarily be bad for Wade's game...assuming does a good job of finding cutters and passing out of the post?

Let's say that the lineup is Chalmers-Wade-LeBron-Bosh-Anthony. If James is inside, that means that outside of 15 feet, your options are limited to:
Chalmers
Bosh at 42 eFG%
Wade at 33 eFG%
Anthony at 0 eFG%

Only Chalmers is a true threat, so only Chalmers' defender is spacing. Which means 4 defenders are clogging the paint. Euro don't work in the middle of four defenders.

[Chicago76]

So far this season...

-Word on the street is that LeBron has developed something of a post-up game. His inside numbers are up but he's shooting a lot less threes. While that may in fact be very good for LeBron's numbers, it's very bad for spacing, which is very bad for Dwyane Wade. Wade's TS%, usage, PER, etc are all way down this year.

Why would LBJ posting up necessarily be bad for Wade's game...assuming does a good job of finding cutters and passing out of the post?

Let's say that the lineup is Chalmers-Wade-LeBron-Bosh-Anthony. If James is inside, that means that outside of 15 feet, your options are limited to:
Chalmers
Bosh at 42 eFG%
Wade at 33 eFG%
Anthony at 0 eFG%

Only Chalmers is a true threat, so only Chalmers' defender is spacing. Which means 4 defenders are clogging the paint. Euro don't work in the middle of four defenders.

A couple of issues:

1)James shouldn't be playing high post in the O with Bosh and Anthony on the court. That's just dumb. The fact that they're doing this is pretty stupid for the spacing issues you mentioned. That doesn't mean it needs to be this way...especially considering Anthony is only on the floor half the time. James should be doing this as a PF, which for some reason hasn't been addressed by MIA.

2)You're assuming they position themselves the same when James is in the high post. This isn't necessarily the case. Put James at the left elbow. Bosh baseline. Chalmers out top. Small forward of choice on near side wing. Wade is weak side wing. When someone comes to help on James, somebody will be left open. If it's a perimeter guy, I would expect their efficiency to be high as they'll be open. If it's Bosh, I would expect him to drain an open baseline jumper or get a nice cut to the basket. Wade weak side is dangerous any way the defense plays it. The defense will be overloaded on the strong side and Wade can do what he does best: get to the basket.

LBJ in the post can be a very good thing. It's less redundant than putting him on the wing opposite Wade. The problem with implementing this is that Miller has only been back 2 weeks and Battier is a new face. It takes time to alter the O this dramatically with a level of comfort. The lockout hurt the Heat in this respect more than other teams.

I don't know if you can attribute Wade's flailing O to the use of James as a post player so much as the injury to Miller, integration of Battier, and playing a modified style in a lockout shortened season. We'll see how this shapes up better over the next two months.

[Wannabe MEP]

You're assuming they position themselves the same when James is in the high post.

Irrelevant if LeBron is the 3. It doesn't matter how fancy you get positioning guys if they aren't outside threats. The point is that well-coached defenders will sag deep into the paint regardless of where their man happens to be he isn't a high percentage threat from deep.

James shouldn't be playing high post in the O with Bosh and Anthony on the court.

If he's playing the four, spacing would be better for that, but he's got a taller, slower defender who's used to playing in the post. Perhaps it doesn't make much of a difference, but I think he's at more of an advantage attacking off the dribble when he's the four. I think he worked on his post game to take advantage of smaller defenders, which is obviously more of an issue when he's playing the 3.

But I think we all agree that playing LeBron at the 4 is a good idea.

Wade is weak side wing. When someone comes to help on James, somebody will be left open. If it's a perimeter guy, I would expect their efficiency to be high as they'll be open. If it's Bosh, I would expect him to drain an open baseline jumper or get a nice cut to the basket. Wade weak side is dangerous any way the defense plays it.

I mean, that's the theory. The best play at that point is the catch-and-shoot 3, which is simply not Wade's game. If the paint is too clogged against an elite defense, it's really hard to attack aggressively. That's exactly what happened in the finals last year. The point is that in that situation, James Jones is a better offensive player than Dwyane Wade. It's not just that Wade is hurting the offense, it's that you're taking zero advantage of his freakish skills. Wade's current RAPM has fallen to 35th in the league, after he was #2 pre-LeBron.

[mopper8]

You can also take advantage of Wade's freakish athleticism defensive. The Chalmers/Wade/Lebron/Bosh/Anthony lineup is roughly 9 points per 100 possessions better defensively than the same lineup with James Jones

edit:

Also, that lineup has an Ortg this season of 107...for perspective, the Spurs have the #6 offensive in the league with an Ortg of 106.7

And that's with Wade playing injured for ~1/3 of the game he's played this season. I would be surprised if that number doesn't go up as the season goes on.

[Wannabe MEP]

You can also take advantage of Wade's freakish athleticism defensive. The Chalmers/Wade/Lebron/Bosh/Anthony lineup is roughly 9 points per 100 possessions better defensively than the same lineup with James Jones

Yes, but the James Jones lineup is so much better offensively that it's still a lot better overall. But then again, sample size...

Also, that lineup has an Ortg this season of 107...for perspective, the Spurs have the #6 offensive in the league with an Ortg of 106.7

Significant caveats to that. Offense is down around the league this year because of shortened camp/less practice. Also, a team's best individual units are expected to be quite a bit better than their overall team ratings. Every team uses offensively inept hack lineups that drag the average down. Three of the Spurs' five most used units are at Off Rtg 140.68, 117.48, and 112.50, while none of the Wade + LeBron + Bosh units that have played 20 minutes together are above 107.02. I think that's shockingly mediocre considering the names involved and the fact that this is year 2.

Last year the Heat had an Off Rtg of 111.66 during the regular season and 106.57 in the playoffs.
Contrast with the Suns the year before: 115.41 during the regular season and 118.26 in the playoffs.

The point is that offense often gets better in the playoffs (teams have been developing chemistry throughout the season, and they use their best lineups more). The Heat got worse. A lot worse. That either means that the Heat's go-to units are worse offensively, or that their offense loses its pop against better teams. I think in the case of this Heat team, both are true. I think that's just as true this year as last year. I still think they will be just as vulnerable in the playoffs as they were last year, but I don't know whether there's a team as good as Dallas was that can take advantage.

[ElGee]

^^^You need to consider who Miami played. The DRtg of their first 3 opponents was 101.8. They were a +4.3 offense in the regular season and over +5 in the Eastern Conference Playoffs. Hard to say "they got worse" in the PS, let alone a lot worse, on offense.

[Wannabe MEP]

You have a point. But that's sort of what happens in the playoffs. You filter down to the best teams, which means you have the best offenses going against the best defenses. The best defenses get worse because they're playing against better offenses, and the best offenses get worse because they're playing against better defenses.

Part of the point is that the Heat feed off of weak defenses: their offense relies too much on shock and awe tactics that overwhelm mediocrity but don't have near the same effect on good defenses.

Contrast with Dallas. Dallas had weaker numbers both offensively and defensively compared to Miami during the regular season. Their offensive numbers against Miami, one of the top defensive teams, were actually better than they were during the regular season against the league's mediocre masses. Again, that's both because offensive synergy improved throughout the season and because Dallas played their best players more minutes in the bigger games.

Perhaps it's a lot to ask Miami to do the same. I don't think it is when you stockpile elite talent like Miami did.

[mopper8]

Heat's starting unit is now at 111.4 Ortg. Healthy Wade has made a world of difference. Miami has the best halfcourt Ortg in the league according to Couper Moorehead.

As compared to last season, Miami:

-Moves the ball on offense much better
-Moves off the ball much better
-Has far more stability at the point guard spot
-Has a deeper and healthier bench
-Is no longer running out a string of immobile dinosaurs at C

And what do we see? The starting lineup featuring Wade and James is absolutely destroying the league right now. Ortg above 111, Drtg below 94. The team's SRS is over 8.3 on the season and trending up. Isn't time to just admit that maybe your explanation for past "struggles" was wrong?