Post#108 » by Dr Positivity » Fri Jan 20, 2012 8:18 pm
I think one of the big things that goes wrong with high school/college scouting is making solid athletes look like elite ones. MKG is the guy who's supporters are guiltiest of this right now turning him into an Iguodala/Wallace physical force, but to me Davis getting treated like an plus athlete in the NBA is also wrong. You're not a plus athlete in the NBA unless you're a freak. If the NBA athletically is a bell curve, I think Davis is part of the large group within 1 standard deviation. KG was in the 3 standard deviations away fractional percent group. The NBA fits the model that I heard for the NFL once of all the hottest girls in their schools moving to LA to become a model or actress, and then they're just completley par or even subpar compared to their competition. To me Davis is par for the course athlete in the NBA - "good enough" but not a dominant athletic talent for that to carry him, for me to say "Wow if he gets his skill game in order, he'll be unstoppable because of those tools!" He's not KG, or even Nene or Chris Bosh to me. I really think he's more like Joakim Noah or Amir Johnson
I really like A Davis as a prospect but I think in pure TALENT level he's just not worth his reputation the way previous consensus #1 picks have been. He's a reasonable physical talent with a usable when open skill game, who has a great attitude and IQ and who is blocking the hell out of shots in college. Obviously the idea of a great shotblocker is valuable to all teams, but if that's all it took to be considered a lock top 2 prospect Henson would be right behind Davis. As for his defense, it looks great no question. But he's not the first uber long player to rack up a ton of blocks in college, in a large way because of that length. I think it's a leap to say he has Duncan/KG/B Wallace type defensive talent because of those blocks. That has to be proven first especially with a guy like Davis who I don't expect to either be longer or faster than the tallest opponent in the NBA, and who's lack of strength and power becoming a bigger issue. I don't trust just looking at blks, or any college stat in particular, to determine upside in a category. I kind of like elite athletic talent + length more than blks/stls as the best indicator of X factor defensive potential. Especially in the post handcheck, elite rotations and close-outs speed > man d era. So while Davis' blks are special, if I was looking at his toolset without knowing the stats, would I say that guy's built to destroy the NBA defensively? Probably not. I'd say in TALENT, he doesn't feel like a #1 pick especially with Drummond in the draft, and I think it's dangerous when you're picking anywhere but especially #1 to not take the most talented player. Talent usually wins. If not in college, then a few years later (for the record stuff like skill and bball IQ fits into talent as well, so eg. I would consider Lamb more talented than Barnes and MKG). It's dangerous IMO to look at 18-20 year old kids and make judgments about whether one cares and the other doesn't enough for the less talented player to surpass him. It can happen but to me most players end up within reasonable range of where they should. Busts like Kwame, Darko and Beasley was as much about their talent being overrated as anything else IMO. Nobody in this draft is a Coleman or Cousins style idiot where that outweighs talent level
To be honest I felt better about Irving having perenniel all-star upside than I do A Davis. To me if I take A Davis first it's a declaration that there isn't a player with a good chance at superstardom and this draft is more about an extremely deep pool of secondary building blocks. If a team is looking at this guy as someone who can be the MAN and completely change a team like Rose or Durant, I just don't think it's happening. I might still take A Davis but I'd be EXTREMELY worried that I'm aiming low by takinga guy #1 in a great draft who I don't expect to be a perenniel all-star. I'd love to be wrong because I like players doing well who deserve it attitude/work ethic wise, and certainly voices I trust are huge on A Davis, but I stand by thinking he'll be a Bogut level franchise player
Liberate The Zoomers