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Why I'm not ready to give up on this season

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Why I'm not ready to give up on this season 

Post#1 » by Wannabe MEP » Tue Jan 17, 2012 5:11 pm

1) Our three most-used units are actually doing very well.

. . . . . . . . . . Players . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .ORtg . . . . DRtg . . . . NetRtg
Nash - Hill - Dudley - Frye - Gortat . . . 105.35 . . . 94.26 . . . +11.09
Price - Brown - Hak - Morris - Lopez . . . 115.79 . . . 103.85 . . . +11.94
Nash - Hill - Dudley - Morris - Gortat . . . 101.70 . . . 85.00 . . . +16.69

Ok, wait, so our first unit is outscoring opponents...and so is our second unit?? Yeah, that's what the numbers say. Those three units are the only Suns units that have played at least 20 minutes together, but combined they have less than half our total minutes. We're not losing games because of our starters or our backups, but because our numerous hack units have been getting killed. For instance, for some unexplained reason we've had quite a few minutes with Hak at the 4, during which we've been comically embarrassed.

Another example: Our starters were actually beating up on the Lakers starters, the second team was holding its own, and then the Lakers went to small-ball and outscored us 14-0 with Metta or Luke at the 4 next to Gasol. (Yeah, we just got out-coached.)

2) Dudley and Frye have excelled in our system...

...but they're playing out of position. This is really pretty weird if you think about it: Take a couple of guys who thrived on the court as the 3 and 5 and move them to the 2 and 4 and expect them to do the same things for you???

When they were playing the 3 and 5, the Suns were rolling. Frye got the vast majority of the minutes at center when the Suns made the 2010 playoff run. Frye's raw on-court offensive rating for the 2009-2010 regular season was 118.44, easily the best in the league (in comparison, LeBron James' was 112.72 last season), while Dudley's 121.75 led the league during the 2010 playoffs. Out of the 3495 player pairs that logged enough possessions to generate an offensive RAPM score, Nash + Frye was 3rd and Dudley + Frye was 6th. For 2008-2011 three-man offensive RAPM, Nash + Dudley + Frye come in 14th out of 45008 combinations. While Dudley was on the court during the 2010 playoffs, the Suns outscored their opponents by 14.22 points per 100 possessions; 9.80 for Frye (in comparison, Derrick Rose was -12.98; Russell Westbrook was -2.73; and Dirk was -4.30).

Nash + Dudley + Frye is a really, really good combo. But it's pretty obvious that it should look like this:
Nash - ______ - Dudley - ______ - Frye . . . and not this . . .
Nash - Dudley - ______ - Frye - ______
The former is a much quicker lineup.

Frye can't stay with quick 4s, and he can't close-out on stretch-4s very well. Antawn Jamison lit him up: that won't happen if he's defending the 5.

3) Markieff and Price have been very solid additions.

I'm confident in Dudley and Frye (in the right setting). I'm confident in Nash and Gortat. I'm becoming more and more confident in Markieff and Price. Grant Hill can still defend, slash...he can give us important minutes. That's 7 guys. I believe in 8-9 man rotations, which means we only need 1-2 more pieces if they're in the right places.

What about giving Price some minutes at the two? He's a good defender, he can knock down open shots, and he's quick. Two point guard lineups have worked very well for Denver, among others.

4) Shannon Brown can play better basketball for us.

It ought to be abundantly clear that Brown cannot handle complete freedom. That's ok: he's spent the last few years watching Kobe, and now Gentry is letting him loose. Don't give him the freedom to shoot off the dribble. This is really not complicated. Don't expect him to create, because he's a horrible decision-maker with a terrible assist rate: he should just be an off-ball slasher. He's a good finisher at the rim; he's quick enough to really cause problems; he shoots 3s well enough to keep teams honest: I think his quickness could be incredibly valuable alongside Nash. Nash would find him in transition and as a cutter, and playing him next to Nash should effectively take the ball out of his hands.

If we can get positive minutes out of Brown, that's 8 guys we can rely on. So why not:
PG: Nash-32/Price/16
SG: Price-16/Brown-24/Hill-8
SF: Dudley-32/Hill-16
PF: Markieff-32/Frye-16
c: Gortat-32/Frye-16

Nash-32
Price-32
Dudley-32
Frye-32
Gortat-32
Markieff-32
Brown-24
Hill-24

Nobody gets more than 32 minutes, and you can still fill in with Redd, Lopez, Warrick, and Chilly. (But you don't need to play any of them!! :thumbsup: )

5) We could get Lou back.

We've gotten slaughtered by 4s that are quick/versatile/good shooters this year when Frye is at the 4. Which is sort of a duh, Frye is not a 4. Markieff is a good defender at the 4, but he's more of a bruiser, so he can still get beat by quickness. The only other option at the 4, then, is Warrick. Ha!!

As I've been saying for approximately forever: we need an athletic, defensive power forward to pair with Frye. The Amare/Lou hybrids that I've repeatedly mentioned (Josh Smith, Amir Johnson, Thaddeus Young) are all tearing it up right now, so that probably doesn't happen even if we're willing to give up Gortat. We have to find a cheaper option.

There is exactly one situation in which Lou is extremely valuable: Playing the 4 next to Frye. Which means he's cheap: he's one of the only players we could acquire without giving up our core 8 guys. He's not getting playing time right now. Start Markieff-Gortat; that's a very solid defensive frontcourt with good spacing and a clear pick-and-roll man. We all know that Lou-Frye is an excellent combo off the bench. Lou gives us a massive boost in quickness, and he makes it much easier for Frye to return to the 5.
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Re: Why I'm not ready to give up on this season 

Post#2 » by Wannabe MEP » Tue Jan 17, 2012 5:13 pm

Oh wait. All this assumes we have a competent enough coach to get all this right. Never mind. :banghead:
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Re: Why I'm not ready to give up on this season 

Post#3 » by Miklo » Tue Jan 17, 2012 5:16 pm

Very good points.

Not to oversimplify but since I'm busy at work at the moment -

It seems like quite a few of your silver linings as well as criticisms are, at their core, coaching-driven issues. Using odd units, putting the wrong units out against the opposing strategy/getting outcoached, giving Shannon less of a green light on shooting.

With that in mind, would you lean towards recommending a coaching change? If so, what style or specific coaches would suit us best?
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Re: Why I'm not ready to give up on this season 

Post#4 » by Miklo » Tue Jan 17, 2012 5:16 pm

haha, well I didn't see your second post - looks like we're in agreement
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Re: Why I'm not ready to give up on this season 

Post#5 » by RunDogGun » Tue Jan 17, 2012 5:28 pm

Los Soles wrote:Oh wait. All this assumes we have a competent enough coach to get all this right. Never mind. :banghead:


Yep, that trumps it all. :( The only thing you haven't taken into consideration is that Gentry is purposely using this information to sabotage us winning. :o Or he is just inept at head coaching.
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Re: Why I'm not ready to give up on this season 

Post#6 » by RunDogGun » Tue Jan 17, 2012 5:30 pm

I love the Lou idea. Could we trade Lopez for Lou? Both are expiring, both are under utilized.
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Re: Why I'm not ready to give up on this season 

Post#7 » by JohnVancouver » Tue Jan 17, 2012 5:54 pm

NBice one Soles - my first reaction was: this is what I hate about stats - all these combos are wining and the team is still losing, so wtf. But you showed why that's so too.

The question is - actually more than one question

1) Can we get Lou back, and I agree that would drastically change our team for the better, even though, yes, he's a marginal guy. he just happens to be the right marginal guy for us.

2) Is the FO willing to make any moves or are they saying that the hell, it's a short season, won't hurt long, we'll make big moves next year? I'd reckon the PHX fans are used to seeing Nash now - they won't show up just to watch him lose no matter how well he plays.

3) How long can Nash stomach sucking? He's already confessed in print to being "pissed off and frustrated".

My thoughts: Dudley and Frye are on very good contracts for what they provide. I'd hate to see them go in a quick-fix trade. Right now, we can afford to jettison Lopez and I'm sure someone will want him for a pick. Not a lotto pick, but any pick. I'd deal him for 2 second rounders - I like the 2nd round. Lots of solid players there, just very few stars. Base hits, no home runs, but base hits add up.

Keep Price, every other alleged guard can be dealt.

I like your analysis and agree that 1-2 pieces are all we need - I just see no way of getting them without sending out picks. I don't want to do that. But if you can get Mayo I think you have to consider it so long as it's not this year's
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Re: Why I'm not ready to give up on this season 

Post#8 » by eastsidecrossover » Tue Jan 17, 2012 6:59 pm

Great post and topic. Its nice to look at the numbers, but the W-L is what tells the truth. Personally, numbers look good at times, but the eye test is not passing for me. I know many want to keep trying for mediocrity and get the 8th seed. I dont see that this team has enough talent to survive this short, compact season. Thats why I have said and will continue to say this season is toast and the more we drag our feet, the longer the process is going to be for us to rebuild a contending team. We dont need a few pieces, we need a revamp of this team.

the eye test, the numbers that matter, the talent and age is why I am giving up on this season. After this long road trip, I think most will give up and see the writing on the wall thats been there for a while.
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Re: Why I'm not ready to give up on this season 

Post#9 » by Beetlejuice » Tue Jan 17, 2012 7:12 pm

Wow, really great post. I have read it multiple times already.

But few shortcoming of your post (just my opinin).
1) This season has been too "weird" already that these +/- stats i wouldn`t put such and emphasis on. Our starters got a major boost in those 2 recent wins where we caught portland and Milwaukee on back to back with very limited rest between.

But i would love to see the same stats after next 10 games ... can they hold up ?

2)point u made. 2010 stats ... we had J.Rich and Amare at 2010 and oh boy was he scary and effective on the offensive end in the 2nd part of the season + team chemistry was off the charts.

4) Not about your post, but overall. These men running the team should have much greater understanding of basketball and the SHOULD be able to stop nonsense on the court ... so they should have put a stop already of shannons freedom on the court ...


Agree with everything else what you said and would LOVE to see that put into action, but thats just daydreaming i quess.
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Re: Why I'm not ready to give up on this season 

Post#10 » by JohnVancouver » Tue Jan 17, 2012 8:53 pm

bear in mind we made the WCF and gave the Lakers a real scare without Stat ...

I don't know if it's possible to assemble that kind of sum-larger-than-the-parts team again but I favour that approach. Adds Mayo or similar at SG, a tough PF/C to go with Keef - Lou - and we're a good team.
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Re: Why I'm not ready to give up on this season 

Post#11 » by Cutter » Wed Jan 18, 2012 12:07 am

RunDogGun wrote:
Los Soles wrote:Oh wait. All this assumes we have a competent enough coach to get all this right. Never mind. :banghead:


Yep, that trumps it all. :( The only thing you haven't taken into consideration is that Gentry is purposely using this information to sabotage us winning. :o Or he is just inept at head coaching.

Gentry got orders from Babby and Sarver to quietly tank. He has shown he can coach a team to the WCF so I don't think he's stupid. When we see these wierd rotations on the floor this is him responding to his boss' request.
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Re: Why I'm not ready to give up on this season 

Post#12 » by RunDogGun » Wed Jan 18, 2012 12:39 am

Cutter wrote:
RunDogGun wrote:
Los Soles wrote:Oh wait. All this assumes we have a competent enough coach to get all this right. Never mind. :banghead:


Yep, that trumps it all. :( The only thing you haven't taken into consideration is that Gentry is purposely using this information to sabotage us winning. :o Or he is just inept at head coaching.

Gentry got orders from Babby and Sarver to quietly tank. He has shown he can coach a team to the WCF so I don't think he's stupid. When we see these wierd rotations on the floor this is him responding to his boss' request.


One would think that, but in that season, when guys were playing great, he had his starters ready to check in. And it was the starters who either went back to the bench or looking back at the coach saying either, "Why am I going in?" or, " Should I come back to the bench?"

Plus it was the energy that the second unit gave which sparked the whole team. I give very little of that credit to Gentry. I do however, give him credit for building Goran's confidence. If he was a great coach he would have realized how valuable Lou was and fought for him to be re-signed. It shouldn't have been too hard considering he would have been cheaper than Warrick, and would have kept our second rounder.

Gentry also kept taking out the hot hand tons of times last year, and started Lopez over Gortat for too long, and started VC.
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Re: Why I'm not ready to give up on this season 

Post#13 » by Kerrsed » Wed Jan 18, 2012 12:47 am

Damn Los Soles, you really should have your own website or blog or something! :wink:

Great analysis!
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Re: Why I'm not ready to give up on this season 

Post#14 » by bigfoot » Wed Jan 18, 2012 3:21 am

I could see the Suns going 0-9 through Feb 3rd. That would be a record of 4-18. At that point I'll be screaming uncle!
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Re: Why I'm not ready to give up on this season 

Post#15 » by MrMiyagi » Wed Jan 18, 2012 6:59 am

Kerrsed wrote:Damn Los Soles, you really should have your own website or blog or something! :wink:

Great analysis!

Or coaching position
SHAZAM!

Suns traded Mikal Bridges, Cam Johnson, Jae Crowder and 4 1st round picks and a swap so some Vegas Bookies would like us.
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Re: Why I'm not ready to give up on this season 

Post#16 » by TheMan44 » Wed Jan 18, 2012 7:22 am

Cutter wrote:Gentry got orders from Babby and Sarver to quietly tank. He has shown he can coach a team to the WCF so I don't think he's stupid. When we see these wierd rotations on the floor this is him responding to his boss' request.


Thank you. 100% correct. :clap:

Thing is, most if not all of you don't know what's going on behind closed doors. Gentry, Babby and company are not idiots. They know what's going on better than anybody. If we post things about the Suns' roster such as Frye to center, etc - I assure you they know more than any of us and then some..

Babby has a master plan. He is no dummy. He's giving specific orders to tank b/c the Suns can do amazing things with such a deep draft. And with the inevitable trades - they're bound to get multiple first-round picks and talent.

And Gentry is no dummy either. He sees what's up w/ the roster and is only making the environment conducive to what Babby wants and what the future will hold. It's just a matter of riding the storm for next 3 months or so...which isn't too long.

So all the Gentry bashing must stop.
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Re: Why I'm not ready to give up on this season 

Post#17 » by Wannabe MEP » Wed Jan 18, 2012 3:35 pm

I really think Gentry doesn't get it. I think as a coach you're juggling so many things, and you have a lot of voices in your ear, and the stats nerd is not the voice that is the loudest or clearest. Between the history and personalities of the players and the little things that happen in practice and the voices of the other coaches and trainers and media and fans and . . . it's just impossible to filter everything. He's planning practice. He's trying to develop players. He's got to assign duties to his different coaches who all have different skills and personalities. He has to choose plays to teach and run for normal half-court play, for OB, for quick-sets, for end-game situations, etc. Then he's got to go talk to the media and tactfully tell the world the truth without actually saying what he thinks, which is something along the lines of: "Player X is a f*cking idiot, and I can't believe player Y is even in the NBA, much less getting paid what he's getting paid. It's not my fault we suck when I have these worthless pieces of sh*t to work with..."

I think Gentry is really good at the diplomat role and really good at the planning practice role, but more or less terrible at the strategic role. Think about it: he loves having a clear-cut five man second team. Why?? That makes the most sense by far for PRACTICE. You practice this five against that five, and then you keep those same crews together during games. He's playing checkers against chess masters like Popovich.

His units are not strategic: they're based on things like loyalty, character, and merit. His starters are the five that have earned their time here: veterans Nash and Hill, the other two guys who have been with the team the longest in Dudley and Frye, and then the obvious choice for the other big, Gortat, even though it took months for him to get the starting role. All nice, hardworking guys who coaches rightfully love and who have been committed character guys for the team.

While I think those five are good, important players for us, not for a second do I think that it's a logical unit strategically.
1) Frye's playing out of position. He was unbelievably perfect for us as a 5. His value plummets as a 4.
2) Hill can't space the court, but he's a good secondary facilitator, so he doesn't make sense as the 3 in an almost pure pick-and-roll offense (MUST. HAVE. SPACING.) next to one of the few PGs in the league who doesn't need a secondary facilitator.
3) Dudley is playing out of position. He's MUCH better as the three or even four, particularly next to a quick 2.
4) The whole unit completely lacks quickness, which has been the Suns greatest strength (outside of Nash's craftiness) for about a decade.

I honestly think that Gentry is only vaguely aware of all of the above. It's stuff that he's probably heard/thought about, but it's like 2% of the information coming at him from every angle about who should be out on the court. He simply doesn't have a strategic mind, so he doesn't filter everything down to the strategic core.
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Re: Why I'm not ready to give up on this season 

Post#18 » by Wannabe MEP » Thu Jan 19, 2012 12:01 am

Miklo wrote:With that in mind, would you lean towards recommending a coaching change? If so, what style or specific coaches would suit us best?

is Popovich available??? D'Antoni will be soon...

I don't know enough about coaches around the league. Somebody with a strategic mind who will let our guys run and play Nash-ball, but can still coach defense. I would actually be interested in bringing D'Antoni back with the right assistants. He's in a terrible situation for his style. I still think D'Antoni gets a bad rap for defense when a huge chunk of that was because of:

1) fast pace (and therefore higher scoring games)
2) Amare
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Re: Why I'm not ready to give up on this season 

Post#19 » by Beetlejuice » Thu Jan 19, 2012 12:43 am

Gentry lurking here ;) ? Todays starting lineup pretty close to Los Soles one.

"If we can get positive minutes out of Brown, that's 8 guys we can rely on. So why not:
PG: Nash-32/Price/16
SG: Price-16/Brown-24/Hill-8
SF: Dudley-32/Hill-16
PF: Markieff-32/Frye-16
c: Gortat-32/Frye-16 "
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Re: Why I'm not ready to give up on this season 

Post#20 » by Wannabe MEP » Fri Jan 20, 2012 4:11 pm

So I was looking at some of the unit vs unit data. This is stunning: When we played the Lakers...

vs. Gasol-Bynum frontcourt: 54-38 Suns
vs. Walton-Gasol frontcourt: 47-13 Lakers

That's pretty consistent with what I've been seeing. Our frontcourt matches up fine with traditional lineups, but frontcourts with more mobility and/or shooting just slaughter us.

Another example: the Jamison-Varejao frontcourt had an offensive rating of 128.8 against us, while all other Cavs frontcourt combos combined had an offensive rating of 48.4 against us.

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