2011-2012 Season tracker

[fishercob]

I wanted a separate thread to track our overall progress this season. Mods, feel free to merge if there's a better place.

As nate and I pointed out this morning, the Wizards are now 11th in the league in defensive efficiency. It's only a ten game sample obviously, but it's a ray of hope for sure. What's fascinating about that is that the Wiz are DEAD LAST in defensive rebounding percentage, one of the defensive "four factors," so they're giving up more extra possessions than any one else.

Interestingly and surprisingly, Booker actually has a slightly lower DRB% than Dray. Vesely's is abysmal. SIngleton is okay, not great.

Obviously we're worst overall offense. i was surprised to see that we're 10th best in turnover percentage. We need to be better on the offensive glass -- we're 25th. Most disturbing is that we're 28th in free throws per field goal attempt. We've got to stop shooting so many contested perimeter shots, attack the basket and get to the line more.

I highly recommend this page: http://www.basketball-reference.com/lea ... _2012.html , especially the advanced metrics under "Miscellaneous."

[Nivek]

Very minor point of clarification, but offensive rebounds don't create extra possessions -- they extend existing possessions.

When looking at the 4 factors, the most important is shooting -- efg. Wiz are dead last in offensive efg and middle of the pack in defensive efg. The poor offensive rebounding is puzzling considering their youth, athleticism and high number of misses they generate.

With the Wiz shooting that badly and not getting to the offensive board, there's not much reason for teams to try to force the issue with turnovers. The Wiz are missing and not getting the ball back, so it makes sense to just play positional defense and get a hand in the shooter's face.

The low turnover rate may also be a function of the ball holding, one-on-one shot-jacking we've seen in the early part of the season. It's tougher to turn the ball over when you shoot it as soon as you get it.

As for the team's shot selection -- Wiz actually attempt a lot of shots inside: 4th most in the league as a percentage of their overall shot attempts. Here's the Wiz shot distance breakdown (this is percentage of the team's FGA that come from this distance:

- At Rim -- 32.7% (4th highest in the NBA behind Denver, Miami and Atlanta)
- 3-9 feet -- 12.2% (23rd)
- 10-15 feet -- 10.9% (7th)
- 16-23 feet -- 28.9% (5th)
- Threes -- 15.3% (29th)

The issue for Washington is their inability to put the ball through the basket. Their shooting percentage ranks by distance:

- At Rim -- 25th
- 3-9 feet -- 20th
- 10-15 feet -- 30th (25.6% from this range)
- 16-23 feet -- 28th
- Threes -- 25th

Think about that a moment. They get to the rim at the 4th highest rate in the league, but shoot the 6th lowest percentage once they get there.

Here's another stat for ya -- Wiz rank dead last in efg on FGA from 10 feet and beyond. Their team percentage on shots from 10+ feet -- 33.5%. The Spurs are number one in this category -- they're shooting an efg of 51.1% on JUMPERS from 10 feet or more.

[tontoz]

As nate and I pointed out this morning, the Wizards are now 11th in the league in defensive efficiency. It's only a ten game sample obviously, but it's a ray of hope for sure. What's fascinating about that is that the Wiz are DEAD LAST in defensive rebounding percentage, one of the defensive "four factors," so they're giving up more extra possessions than any one else.

At the end of the game last night it was really pathetic to see all the wizards right under the basket jumping for the rebounds instead of boxing out and clearing space. Sure enough the Bulls got rebound after rebound.

[fishercob]

Thans for the claification, Kev. By the way, Javale is 7th in the league in defensive rebounding percentage and 10th in total rebound percentage. Good stuff!

[Illuminaire]

Regarding boxing out, Vesely was certainly trying last night, but Taj Gibson was shoving him out of position pretty easily. Kid needs to hit the weight room HARD. He'll be better, but it will take time.

[Nivek]

MikeG from APBRmetrics has a most to least improved for the Wizards this season.

Players whose production IMPROVED since last season (in order)
- Javale McGee
- Trevor Booker
- Kevin Seraphin (barely)

Unchanged
- Roger Mason

Got Worse (in order from smallest decline to largest)
- Ronny Turiaf
- Nick Young
- Jordan Crawford
- Andray Blatche
- Rashard Lewis
- John Wall

Wall, Blatche and Lewis have been worse by about the same amount McGee has been more productive.

One observation from MikeG -- "Nick Young is less-dimensional than he was last year."

[montestewart]

^
Production wise, how do the rookies compare with the players they replaced (Hinrich, Arenas, Howard, Yi, etc.)?

[closg00]

Hamady can box-out, he's in the game recap highlights.
http://www.nba.com/dleague/games/201201 ... 2021100400

[Dat2U]

MikeG from APBRmetrics has a most to least improved for the Wizards this season.

Players whose production IMPROVED since last season (in order)
- Javale McGee
- Trevor Booker
- Kevin Seraphin (barely)

Unchanged
- Roger Mason

Got Worse (in order from smallest decline to largest)
- Ronny Turiaf
- Nick Young
- Jordan Crawford
- Andray Blatche
- Rashard Lewis
- John Wall

Wall, Blatche and Lewis have been worse by about the same amount McGee has been more productive.

One observation from MikeG -- "Nick Young is less-dimensional than he was last year."

I know you think Flip is a fine coach and no one can help this bunch, but this is reasons #1, #2 & #3 to make a change at coach. For whatever reason it's not working right now.

[Nivek]

I'm already down with firing Flip. I think he's a good coach, but he's failed with this group. If I was running the team, I'd have fired him already. I don't think the next guy would do much better, but it's worth a shot.

[Nivek]

^
Production wise, how do the rookies compare with the players they replaced (Hinrich, Arenas, Howard, Yi, etc.)?

Mike didn't really like the question all that much because (as he says), it's not exactly like one group replaced the other. However, in Mike's estimation, Hinrich, Arenas and Yi were worth about 3 wins last season. The rookie trio of Singleton, Mack and Vesely would be worth not quite a win combined (projecting their numbers through 10 games over the full 66-game schedule).

So, the rookies are less productive than the vets, but it's not like the vets they're "replacing" were productive either.

[Nivek]

McGee leads the league in defensive goaltending calls. He has 8 so far this season. Dwight Howard is in 2nd place with 5. Three guys have 3. Several have 2.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I wanted a separate thread to track our overall progress this season. Mods, feel free to merge if there's a better place.

As nate and I pointed out this morning, the Wizards are now 11th in the league in defensive efficiency. It's only a ten game sample obviously, but it's a ray of hope for sure. What's fascinating about that is that the Wiz are DEAD LAST in defensive rebounding percentage, one of the defensive "four factors," so they're giving up more extra possessions than any one else.

Interestingly and surprisingly, Booker actually has a slightly lower DRB% than Dray. Vesely's is abysmal. SIngleton is okay, not great.

Obviously we're worst overall offense. i was surprised to see that we're 10th best in turnover percentage. We need to be better on the offensive glass -- we're 25th. Most disturbing is that we're 28th in free throws per field goal attempt. We've got to stop shooting so many contested perimeter shots, attack the basket and get to the line more.

I highly recommend this page: http://www.basketball-reference.com/lea ... _2012.html , especially the advanced metrics under "Miscellaneous."

Thanks for posting this, fish!

Great to save time and see the season at a glance.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Very minor point of clarification, but offensive rebounds don't create extra possessions -- they extend existing possessions.

When looking at the 4 factors, the most important is shooting -- efg. Wiz are dead last in offensive efg and middle of the pack in defensive efg. The poor offensive rebounding is puzzling considering their youth, athleticism and high number of misses they generate.

With the Wiz shooting that badly and not getting to the offensive board, there's not much reason for teams to try to force the issue with turnovers. The Wiz are missing and not getting the ball back, so it makes sense to just play positional defense and get a hand in the shooter's face.

The low turnover rate may also be a function of the ball holding, one-on-one shot-jacking we've seen in the early part of the season. It's tougher to turn the ball over when you shoot it as soon as you get it.

As for the team's shot selection -- Wiz actually attempt a lot of shots inside: 4th most in the league as a percentage of their overall shot attempts. Here's the Wiz shot distance breakdown (this is percentage of the team's FGA that come from this distance:

- At Rim -- 32.7% (4th highest in the NBA behind Denver, Miami and Atlanta)
- 3-9 feet -- 12.2% (23rd)
- 10-15 feet -- 10.9% (7th)
- 16-23 feet -- 28.9% (5th)
- Threes -- 15.3% (29th)

The issue for Washington is their inability to put the ball through the basket. Their shooting percentage ranks by distance:

- At Rim -- 25th
- 3-9 feet -- 20th
- 10-15 feet -- 30th (25.6% from this range)
- 16-23 feet -- 28th
- Threes -- 25th

Think about that a moment. They get to the rim at the 4th highest rate in the league, but shoot the 6th lowest percentage once they get there.

Here's another stat for ya -- Wiz rank dead last in efg on FGA from 10 feet and beyond. Their team percentage on shots from 10+ feet -- 33.5%. The Spurs are number one in this category -- they're shooting an efg of 51.1% on JUMPERS from 10 feet or more.

So, what you're saying is when they are shooting from close they are poor. When the shoot from far away they are worst in the league.

I would say they shouldn't shoot, but that's not gonna help things.

[fishercob]

The Wiz are 2-14, and the defense that was threatening to crack the top 10 a couple of weeks ago has now dropped all the way to 25th.

Four Factors update:
No longer last in eFG%! Sacramento has taken that throne.
STill top half of the league in offensive TOV&
20th in ORB%
24th in getting to the line

Defensive four factors:
26th in eFG%
8th in forcing turnovers
all the way up to 26th in DRB%!
16th in FT/FGA

So Kevin, if all four of the defensive factors have remained steady or improved, why has the overall DRtg plummeted? Schedule strength?

Wall seems to have put his early season cold streak behind him. He has played really well over the past 5 or 6 games -- he just has no consistent help and still tends to force things a bit as a result. His defense has been great; he has the makings of an all-league defender.

McGee seems to have disappeared. No consistency to his efforts. Thanks Mama Bear. Crawford's overall play has improved to just bad instead of soul-crushingly awful. Young has made some shots and played nice man D, but his ceiling is as a bench swingman/scorer. Blatche sucks. Vesely is smart but may be the weakest player in the league pound for pound. Seraphin is worlds away. Booker is still an offensive self-check. Singleton done more on O, but has struggled defensively.

[nate33]

The much-maligned Nick Young is actually posting a higher PER this season than he did last season. His scoring efficiency is down a bit from last year, but that seems to be the case with everyone in the league thanks to the lack of training camp. (Since PER is weighted against the league average, Young's PER is improved from last year despite lower efficiency.)

[fishercob]

The much-ballyhooed Nick Young is actually posting worse shooting efficiency this season than he did last season. His PER is up a bit from last year, but it's still just below the league average.



Seriously, nate. You're crowing about a 2% bump in his PER when his shooting is way worse, other than from the line? His assists are back up to around where they were as a rookie, but his rebounding has actually been worse, if that's possible.

[nate33]

I didn't mean to give the impression that I was "crowing" about his improvement. I'm just pointing out that he's not playing significantly worse than last year, yet people are really down on him.

He has two very good games to start the season, then entered a shooting slump for about 9 games. In his last 5 games, he's looking like the Nick Young of old (for better or worse). In those 5 games, he has averaged 21.6 points per game with an eFG% of .511 and a TS% of .557, but with his typically anemic numbers in the rest of the box score (3.2 boards, 1.6 assists, 1.0 steals).

It's looking like the Young of this year is about the same as the Young of last year. I still say that makes him a starting-caliber player on an average team (or an elite 6th man on a contender), but he clearly doesn't deserve the $9M a year he is asking.

[Nivek]

Defensive four factors:
26th in eFG%
8th in forcing turnovers
all the way up to 26th in DRB%!
16th in FT/FGA

So Kevin, if all four of the defensive factors have remained steady or improved, why has the overall DRtg plummeted? Schedule strength?

Actually, the four factors on defense haven't remained steady or improved. Their RANKINGS have remained steady or improved a bit, but in real terms they've been worsening since the high-water mark defensively. Their best season-average drtg was 102.2 after the Chicago game. (My ortg/dtrg numbers differ very slightly from those at b-r because I use a different method for estimating possessions. The differences are really minor.)

After the Chicago game, here are their actual numbers in the 4 factors (defensive):

- defg: .483
- dreb%: 68.2%
- dtov%: 18.3%
- ftm/fga: .19

Here's where those numbers stand after the loss to Boston yesterday:

- defg: .502
- dreb%: 71.4%
- dtov%: 16.9%
- ftm/fga: .22

So, in the past 6 games, the Wiz are doing a better job on the defensive glass, but opponents are shooting better, getting to the line more frequently, and Washington has been forcing fewer turnovers (on a per possession basis).

The key, of course, is defg. Over the past 6 games, opponents have an efg of .535 against Washington.

Yes, level of competition is an issue. But, they've been at home for 5 of the 6 games, and teams typically perform worse on the road. It's been a bad stretch defensively, mostly because they're back to similar patterns from previous years -- they're not making the opposition miss shots.

[fishercob]

The season concludes the the Wiz 26th in offense and 20th in defense.

Four factors ranks:

Offense:
eFg%: 27th
TO%: 19th
Oreb% 17th (right at league avg)
FT/FGA: 28th

Defense:
eFG%: 20th -- within .005 of league avg
TO%: 8th
Dreb%: 26th
FT/FGA: 26th

I don't know how to break these numbers out pre and post trade or with and without Nene. Obviously that would be extremely helpful.

But from a big picture standpoint it's pretty clear to see that we're a much improved defensive team. We have got to fix the defensive boards and foul less. I want to know what our eFG% is post trade.

On offense, we really need efficient shooters/scorers. I feel like everything flows from there. Hopefully we have the opportunity to address these problems in the draft and in offseason trades or free agency.