Official Raptors 2012 NBA Draft Thread, Part 4

[Dr Positivity]

I think Cody Zeller is going to be a good NBA player, but in an Amir Johnson/Psycho T/Tristan Thomspon energy finishing guy PF way... not enough upside for us, especially if GMs are dumb enough to pass on Lamb, Sullinger, Leonard, Henson to that point

[DarkKnight]

yeah you're right, it looks like he did it earlier this year (last year I don't think he had those until well into the draft process). I doubt a GM would take Barnes over Drummond at #2. I could see maybe PJIII, or perhaps Lamb, but not really with Barnes.

These rankings are really bad though, he has the Spurs selecting Austin Rivers with the #2 pick

I could easily see Barnes going 2 or even 1 when it's all over. Granted I am a big fan of his game, but just trying to look at it objectively as a GM:

a) Probably the highest floor in the draft. At worst you've got Marvin Williams or Luol Deng- a SF with prototype size, great defensive instincts and effort, a jumpshot with range easily out to the NBA 3, solid athleticism and a number of polished mid-range moves. A guy like that might not be a franchise player, but that seems like his floor at this point. And as a GM you rarely get fired for ending up with a very good player even if he doesn't turn out to be a world beater. You DO get fired for busting entirely.

b) Work ethic, personality, and durability. By all accounts he is a tireless worker. First guy in last guy out of the gym. Terrific, engaging personality and consummate team guy. No red flags for bad behaviour or influences. Terrific family background. No injury flags at all, and a body type built for the NBA. So, very few things to go wrong outside his game.

c) End of game. Every team needs a player you can give the ball with 10 seconds left and ask them to win it. Heck, every team needs a guy with 5 minutes left that can take over a close game. Barnes has done this multiple times in his short college career. He's a clutch performer and gets better as the game gets bigger and tougher. These guys are hard to find.

d) Ceiling. It's not his best attribute as the freshmen are sexier from this angle (Davis and Drummond). Both of those 2 bigs have things that cannot be learned - length/athleticism for Davis, size/athleticism for Drummond. But Barnes still has a ceiling as a Paul Pierce type in the NBA and that's a HOF player.

So while Davis and Drummond have the "If they add offense/production to their games you could have something special!" going for them, Barnes is the reliable pick. As a recent example - Hasheem Thabeet vs. James Harden. No, it's not exactly the same, as I think many people had Thabeet in the bust-for-sure column, neither was Harden as highly regarded throughout his amateur career. But Thabeet was the raw, shotblocking genius who could fill that always-so-tough center spot, and a team made the choice to pick him #2 overall, ahead of the surefire solid player in Harden. I bet Memphis wishes they had that one back.

So...who knows what will happen the rest of this NCAA season. It's certainly not inconceivable for Barnes to move up or down people's boards, or for teams to have differing opinions on players.

[DarkKnight]

I think Cody Zeller is going to be a good NBA player, but in an Amir Johnson/Psycho T/Tristan Thomspon energy finishing guy PF way... not enough upside for us, especially if GMs are dumb enough to pass on Lamb, Sullinger, Leonard, Henson to that point

I'm not convinced Cody will end up better than Tyler. He's certainly got the youth angle but Tyler has an NBA frame and a bunch of polished post moves. Cody is still very raw - could end up going either way.

Edit: His brother, Tyler Zeller, that is.

[JamesNaismith]

I can personally see Barnes going #2 in the draft but not first.

GMs can easily use his low floor as reason to vaildate not risking a more unfinished product. But the thing with #1 picks is the team picking is under the gun to find THE best talent. While Barnes has solid talent...he doesn't have the highest ceiling and out of this draft the 2 highest ceilings are the ADs with Davis looking the more likely to fulfill that "potential".

BUT Drummond's potential is immense and a GM can become infactuated with that when he works him out in the combine. If Davis goes 1st overall then I think HB has a chance to sneak past Drummond if a GM is very risk adverse or is influenced by "fit".....but if Drummond goes #1 then I say no way HB goes second; the following team will immediately scoop up Davis.

[Dr Positivity]

I think Drummond's #2 spot is definitely in danger. GMs like college production and they like elite motors. And if UConn continues to be shiat he'll be hurt from not having a tournament presence while Barnes, MKG and Robinson could go deep

[niQ]

Well regardless if we actually draft 8th, I am 99.99% sure we will not draft Cody Zeller.

[DarkKnight]

I can personally see Barnes going #2 in the draft but not first.

GMs can easily use his low floor as reason to vaildate not risking a more unfinished product. But the thing with #1 picks is the team picking is under the gun to find THE best talent. While Barnes has solid talent...he doesn't have the highest ceiling and out of this draft the 2 highest ceilings are the ADs with Davis looking the more likely to fulfill that "potential".

BUT Drummond's potential is immense and a GM can become infactuated with that when he works him out in the combine. If Davis goes 1st overall then I think HB has a chance to sneak past Drummond if a GM is very risk adverse or is influenced by "fit".....but if Drummond goes #1 then I say no way HB goes second; the following team will immediately scoop up Davis.

You really believe there is absolutely no way that any team could evaluate Davis and Barnes and decide that Barnes is the better bet? I would agree that as of right now the scouts seem to prefer Davis' upside to Barnes polish, but I would hesitate to guarantee that every GM sees it that way or that a late surge (similar to last season) by Barnes couldn't push him up the chart. If his second half:first half ratio of production this season is close to what it was last season, he could rocket to the top spot (he was worlds better in the second half last season). Similarly, if Davis doesn't perform well in some of the games against teams with burlier frontcourts he could see some slippage if some GMs are scared off by his lack of an NBA frame at this time.

I just think it's too early for sweeping declarations. I remember season wher Rudy Gay was the runaway #1 pick and where Josh Selby was supposed to be a top 5 selection. The draft is weird.

[Dr Positivity]

I think Cody Zeller is going to be a good NBA player, but in an Amir Johnson/Psycho T/Tristan Thomspon energy finishing guy PF way... not enough upside for us, especially if GMs are dumb enough to pass on Lamb, Sullinger, Leonard, Henson to that point

I'm not convinced Cody will end up better than Tyler. He's certainly got the youth angle but Tyler has an NBA frame and a bunch of polished post moves. Cody is still very raw - could end up going either way.

Edit: His brother, Tyler Zeller, that is.

I agree, I think Tyler is going to be a long time NBA player too. I would take both top 16 and wouldn't give either the clear edge. Seems to me like both are going to have their athleticism underrated due to being preppy white dudes (Tyler's is passable at an NBA level, Cody's is great). I don't either have huge upside but should be solid players which is what you want picking 14th or 15th or something. Similar to the Morris twins being good picks at that stage (Marcus hasn't done anything yet, but I have confidence in him) despite not having huge upside

[JamesNaismith]

Well regardless if we actually draft 8th, I am 99.99% sure we will not draft Cody Zeller.

LOL Definitely NOT!

My board changes outside of the top 4 but from today I think its:

1. Davis
2. Drummond
3. Barnes
4. Lamb (interchangable @ 3 with Barnes but the top 4 are a lock)
5. MKG
6. Robinson
7. PJ3
8. Sullinger
9. Beal
10. Leonard
11. Rivers
12. Miller
13. Henson
14. Ross
15. Wroten

[Dr Positivity]

I'd be SHOCKED if there was even a whisper of Barnes passing Anthony Davis. Big men, particularly future defensive stars, have kicked the crap out of perimeter scorers in the draft when it comes to going #1, historically. It's just way harder to get a franchise big man.

A Davis is young enough for his offensive struggles to get swept under the rug by Ford and co., especially with how little Kentucky uses him and the whole story of him playing guard in high school. All he has to do is show up to workouts and start hitting 20 footers and Ford will say he has KG's offensive potential. At the same stage A Davis started leading college players in PER in his freshman season, Barnes was literally a below average NCAA player. This is something that it'll be nearly impossible for Barnes to get past

I think the only two guys that can go #1 are A Davis and Drummond

[DarkKnight]

I'd be SHOCKED if there was even a whisper of Barnes passing Anthony Davis. Big men, particularly future defensive stars, have kicked the crap out of perimeter scorers in the draft when it comes to going #1, historically. It's just way harder to get a franchise big man.

A Davis is young enough for his offensive struggles to get swept under the rug by Ford and co., especially with how little Kentucky uses him and the whole story of him playing guard in high school. All he has to do is show up to workouts and start hitting 20 footers and Ford will say he has KG's offensive potential. At the same stage A Davis started leading college players in PER in his freshman season, Barnes was literally a below average NCAA player. This is something that it'll be nearly impossible for Barnes to get past

I think the only two guys that can go #1 are A Davis and Drummond

I can see this line of thinking, but two things to consider:

Big men, particularly future defensive stars, have kicked the crap out of perimeter scorers in the draft when it comes to going #1

Blurring the #1-only part of that and looking at the top part of the draft in general, history might indicate that this is a terrible decision by GMs. To illustrate, here are some drafts where there was a Centre prospect and a perimeter player who were both at least semi-legit #1 candidates:

1996, Iverson over Camby - right call
1998, Olowokandi over Bibby - wrong call
1999, Brand over Francis - right call
2002, Yao over Jay williams - right call but Williams got hurt so fast it's hard to say
2003, Darko over Melo - wrong call (not for #1 but Lebron was another planet and the draft started at #2)
2005, Bogut over CP3/Deron - wrong call (still not sure how marvin snuck in at #2)
2007, Oden over Durant - wrong call
2009, Thabeet over Harden - wrong call (again at #2)

So in the last 15 or so years there have been 8 instances, IMO, where a team in the top 2 had a choice between a highly regarded C prospect and a highly regarded outside prospect. And you are 100% correct - 7 out of 8 times the GM went with the big guy. However, 6 out of 8 times the outside player would have been the right call - only the injury-affected Yao/JWill decision and the reasonably close Brand/Francis choice would you have to chalk up to the big man.

At some point (it may not be this year) GMs are going to realize that gambling on big guys when there are surefire perimeter guys available is just a losing proposition. Now, if there' no great perimeter option (like in 06, 04, 01, 00, and 97) or if the big guy isn't really much of a gamble (97, 04, etc) then it makes some sense. But to me it's getting to be like splitting tens in blackjack. You can make more money but you really should just take the almost-sure-thing.

Secondly, comparing where the guys were at in separate stages when the two are so entirely different isn't something that I think scouts would be caught doing. Barnes struggled early in hsi freshman season but was asked to be the centrepiece of an entire team on offense and was playing next to a terrible PG who was dragging the entire team down. Davis has been asked to camp near the basket, swat anything he can reach, and dunk the ball if it comes to him. It's not remotely comparable. If the last 12 months hadn't occurred for Barnes than you'd have to say that "hey, maybe we were wrong about him before" but with how he's played from pretty much the day he got a real PG, I don't think too many scouts are going to go watch his first 15 games of his freshman season and use that to find reasons not to draft him.

Should be a fun rest of the NCAA season for sure.

[nahom1319]

Well regardless if we actually draft 8th, I am 99.99% sure we will not draft Cody Zeller.

LOL Definitely NOT!

My board changes outside of the top 4 but from today I think its:

1. Davis
2. Drummond
3. Barnes
4. Lamb (interchangable @ 3 with Barnes but the top 4 are a lock)
5. MKG
6. Robinson
7. PJ3
8. Sullinger
9. Beal
10. Leonard
11. Rivers
12. Miller
13. Henson
14. Ross
15. Wroten

Without taking into consideration needs, I certainly wouldn't argue with that list. I think Robinson might go before MKG but other then that I think that's how it SHOULD go down. How it actually goes down is a completely different animal.

[JamesNaismith]

All that said....again GMs are always under pressure to pick the best possible talent. I really don't think many GMs worry about Davis' floor either. At worst they have an elite shot blocker and good rebounder but if he can contribute well offensively then he easily has much higher potential then Barnes.

[DarkKnight]

All that said....again GMs are always under pressure to pick the best possible talent. I really don't think many GMs worry about Davis' floor either. At worst they have an elite shot blocker and good rebounder but if he can contribute well offensively then he easily has much higher potential then Barnes.

I think the floor is lower than many are willing to admit. Honestly - if you replaced the word "Davis" with the word "Thabeet" in that paragraph it wouldn't change at all. They had pretty identical shotblocking/rebounding/FG% numbers. And while it seems insulting now to compare DAvis, who is shiny and new, to Thabeet, who is a tremendous bust, it wasn't long ago that Thabeet was a #2 overall pick and people were saying "at worst he's a great shotblocker and rebounder and has great size for a C - if his offense comes around they'll have something special!"

No comparison is ever exactly correct, but Davis DOES have a thabeet type floor. It might be unlikely that he busts that badly but the possibility exists.

[Big Shot]

If Raps get #1 pick and draft Davis, who eventually becomes a franchise player as some people expect, what would you like to do with AB? Assumed AB still plays at a high level at PF as Davis does and JV also plays well at C.

Would you think this 3 bigs rotation work or waste of talent with one coming off the bench?

[JamesNaismith]

All that said....again GMs are always under pressure to pick the best possible talent. I really don't think many GMs worry about Davis' floor either. At worst they have an elite shot blocker and good rebounder but if he can contribute well offensively then he easily has much higher potential then Barnes.

I think the floor is lower than many are willing to admit. Honestly - if you replaced the word "Davis" with the word "Thabeet" in that paragraph it wouldn't change at all. They had pretty identical shotblocking/rebounding/FG% numbers. And while it seems insulting now to compare DAvis, who is shiny and new, to Thabeet, who is a tremendous bust, it wasn't long ago that Thabeet was a #2 overall pick and people were saying "at worst he's a great shotblocker and rebounder and has great size for a C - if his offense comes around they'll have something special!"

No comparison is ever exactly correct, but Davis DOES have a thabeet type floor. It might be unlikely that he busts that badly but the possibility exists.

Fair enough...but Davis has certainly shown more potential offensively and also can use the arguement that being on a stacked team effects his numbers. I would imagine without Teague, Lamb, MKG and Jones he'd definitely score more points and probably even more boards.

Also I think if your fair you'll admit between watching the 2 that Davis has a much better feel for the game and motor then Thabeet did in UCONN.

[ATLTimekeeper]

All that said....again GMs are always under pressure to pick the best possible talent. I really don't think many GMs worry about Davis' floor either. At worst they have an elite shot blocker and good rebounder but if he can contribute well offensively then he easily has much higher potential then Barnes.

I think the floor is lower than many are willing to admit. Honestly - if you replaced the word "Davis" with the word "Thabeet" in that paragraph it wouldn't change at all. They had pretty identical shotblocking/rebounding/FG% numbers. And while it seems insulting now to compare DAvis, who is shiny and new, to Thabeet, who is a tremendous bust, it wasn't long ago that Thabeet was a #2 overall pick and people were saying "at worst he's a great shotblocker and rebounder and has great size for a C - if his offense comes around they'll have something special!"

No comparison is ever exactly correct, but Davis DOES have a thabeet type floor. It might be unlikely that he busts that badly but the possibility exists.

Because their shot-blocking numbers are similar? That's pretty much all they have in common as players.

[Dr Positivity]

All that said....again GMs are always under pressure to pick the best possible talent. I really don't think many GMs worry about Davis' floor either. At worst they have an elite shot blocker and good rebounder but if he can contribute well offensively then he easily has much higher potential then Barnes.

I think the floor is lower than many are willing to admit. Honestly - if you replaced the word "Davis" with the word "Thabeet" in that paragraph it wouldn't change at all. They had pretty identical shotblocking/rebounding/FG% numbers. And while it seems insulting now to compare DAvis, who is shiny and new, to Thabeet, who is a tremendous bust, it wasn't long ago that Thabeet was a #2 overall pick and people were saying "at worst he's a great shotblocker and rebounder and has great size for a C - if his offense comes around they'll have something special!"

No comparison is ever exactly correct, but Davis DOES have a thabeet type floor. It might be unlikely that he busts that badly but the possibility exists.

Disagree with the Thabeet thing. Thabeet has some of the worst hands the NBA has ever seen, while Davis' are phenomenal. That alone makes Davis more usable offensively in the NBA.

Thabeet is also a bit of a freak prospect in that it's like he has a complete mental block when it comes to reading the court and not being a basketball (Please Use More Appropriate Word). I've only seen a handful of players whom when on the court they looked like they'd never played basketball before, Thabeet is one, Joe Alexander is one, Alabi is one. Not many others. I just don't see *any* reason to believe that's true with Davis, who's defensive IQ looks phenomenal and has some stats that back up that up solidly like AST to TOV ratio and foul rate. If you list "Is it possible he's a Thabeet/Joe Alexander level basketball (Please Use More Appropriate Word)" with Davis as a concern, one might as well for Barnes and everyone else *shrug*

I think Davis' downside is Amir offensively and on the glass, but he can block shots at a 1.5+ blks per 36 rate. So like 10/9/1.5. That's obviously be a massive failure out for a #1 pick but it's still not Thabeet.

[bboyskinnylegs]

If Raps get #1 pick and draft Davis, who eventually becomes a franchise player as some people expect, what would you like to do with AB? Assumed AB still plays at a high level at PF as Davis does and JV also plays well at C.

Would you think this 3 bigs rotation work or waste of talent with one coming off the bench?

We'd be in no rush to trade one of them right away, and could take our time to evaluate how our teams stands (including seeing if the three can play together, which would be a huge bonus if possible), but I would look to see what kind of offers are out there for all three of them (as the only legit C, Jonas is still the guy I'd want to keep most out of the three, honestly I think he's even better than whoever we might be able to draft this year). I think we could get a significant upgrade at another position if we're willing to listen to offers for Davis in particular. No matter how things end up though, we'd have all three locked up for at least three more years, which is huge for us.

I still think there's a small chance we might be able to run all three out there. On offense, Davis and Jonas play in the post with Bargs playing like a SF (somewhat like the Thunder), on defense one of them will need to be able to cover guys on the perimeter--we've seen Bargs have to do this at times with mixed results. I think Davis would do a better job at it but he's played the C all year so it's hard to say. That would be a ridiculously long frontcourt though, and could be really effective when we run the zone. Certainly worth experimenting with to see how things look, and could possibly end up being the best frontcourt in the league.

[DarkKnight]

All that said....again GMs are always under pressure to pick the best possible talent. I really don't think many GMs worry about Davis' floor either. At worst they have an elite shot blocker and good rebounder but if he can contribute well offensively then he easily has much higher potential then Barnes.

I think the floor is lower than many are willing to admit. Honestly - if you replaced the word "Davis" with the word "Thabeet" in that paragraph it wouldn't change at all. They had pretty identical shotblocking/rebounding/FG% numbers. And while it seems insulting now to compare DAvis, who is shiny and new, to Thabeet, who is a tremendous bust, it wasn't long ago that Thabeet was a #2 overall pick and people were saying "at worst he's a great shotblocker and rebounder and has great size for a C - if his offense comes around they'll have something special!"

No comparison is ever exactly correct, but Davis DOES have a thabeet type floor. It might be unlikely that he busts that badly but the possibility exists.

Fair enough...but Davis has certainly shown more potential offensively and also can use the arguement that being on a stacked team effects his numbers. I would imagine without Teague, Lamb, MKG and Jones he'd definitely score more points and probably even more boards.

Also I think if your fair you'll admit between watching the 2 that Davis has a much better feel for the game and motor then Thabeet did in UCONN.

Oh, absolutely. I was 98% sure that thabeet would bust for the reasons that you and DrMufasa outline. With davis I'd say there' more like a 10-15% chance. That's an enormous difference. It's only when people refuse to see even the possibility that Davis' frame might not translate and/or that his offense may never become more than putbacks/lobs/dunks that I feel like they are being naive.

I really feel like his most likely outcome is Camby (if he doesn't get a lot stronger but adds a bit more post game) or Tyson (if he gets stronger as he gets older but never really develops his offense). Both guys are terrific pieces of any good team but neither would be the kind of player you'd congratulate yourself for taking #1.

Don't misundertand me. I'd love to have him on the Raps and watch him grow and hope for the best possible outcome. But if you asked me to pick him or Barnes - who will have the better career - and bet my life on it? I'd take Barnes for sure.