Rosenthal: AL now has six super teams

[BobbyBoy]

People need to stop posting nonsense without thinking about it. This happens every year, people get carried away by off season moves and always over estimate how much a team improved by signing big name players. The Angels, Tigers and Rangers are not super teams, they're not even close.

The Rangers are not a super team. The tigers are not really a super team, but they have a solid team, but the angels are a great team. They have a great rotation, and a great lineup, and their defence isn't even bad. I think they are a super team, maybe not for a long time, but for next year, i think they are.

[dballislife]

i think 3 of morrow, cecil, alverez, mcgowen, drabek, need to all post 3.75ish or under era to get into playoffs...plus lind, jpa, rasmus, snider or thames all have to improve...u can always hope i guess, but its slim

[WpgPage]

I really think this is the year Morrow figures it out and puts together a sub 4.00 ERA season. Assuming some regression from Romero that's still 2/5 of a solid rotation if Cecil can provide even 5th starter like numbers thats 3/5 then just need to find a #1 and a #4 starter...

[Michael Bradley]

The thing to keep in mind with Morrow is he has only been a full-time starter for two seasons, and in one of those seasons (2010) he was on a strict innings limit. From 2006-2009, he started a grand total of 35 games. Three and a half pro seasons and 35 starts. That's ridiculous. Morrow is still not a finished product, and while I think his upside is more (the good version of) AJ Burnett rather than Justin Verlander, that is still a quality #2 starter. The ratios are there. He just needs to put it all together. He may or may not in the long run, but that is one of the reasons the Jays are a bit under the radar. He has just as much chance to bust out as anyone.

I can't comment on Cecil because his problem last year was a loss of velocity. When he is right, I have no problem with him being a league average starter. Hopefully his weight loss helps him out. McGowan is a big question mark. Tough to project what Alvarez will do. I'd expect Carreno to start some games next year over Drabek (in case of injury), but Drabek prior to 2011 was a top 30 prospect in baseball. Between Farrell and Walton, I would hope someone in the organization can help the guy fix his command issues. If he does, then the Jays have a real darkhorse rotation candidate out of ST, but I'm not going to buy into any Drabek hype until he shows improvement.

The issue with the Jays rotation is uncertainty, but the upside is there. Same thing with the offense. People assume Kelly Johnson and Colby Rasmus suck because of 2011, but prior to that they have a history of putting up all-star calibre numbers for their positions. It feels like half the Jays team is a "buy low" candidate, which is why I am a bit more optimistic about 2012 than others are. It is like the team is filled with Yunel Escobar's from last year (i.e. players coming off down years that are sure to improve). That is usually a good thing. It may not be good enough to make the playoffs, but who knows.

[Santoki]

I think there are just too many ifs for them to get in this year, especially with the starting rotation. I'm hoping I'm wrong, but I just feel this is a 85-88 win team and that won't be good enough even with the extra playoff spot.

[Sifu]

Jays won 81 games last year with a not so good BP and over 1700 AB from stiffs like Hill, Patterson, Nix, McCoy, Rivera, Davis, and McDonald.

If you figure an improved BP leads to 6 more wins, and the replacement of about 30% of the team's ABs results in another 3 more wins, that puts the Jays at 90 wins from last year.

Optimistic? Surely. But not as crazy as it sounds.

[ItsDanger]

Id like our chances if we could get in the playoffs. Unfortunately thats the hard part. Thats when the #4 and #5 pitcher records are tossed out the window. Your record against the good teams and the better pitchers is what counts. Im not concerned about our offense. Key for us is the starting pitchers. We need Drabek to suprise and Morrow to be consistent. If Alvarez can be solid, we could surprise but we need 90-95 wins given that Boston & TB are going to be right there.

[Skin Blues]

Jays won 81 games last year with a not so good BP and over 1700 AB from stiffs like Hill, Patterson, Nix, McCoy, Rivera, Davis, and McDonald.

If you figure an improved BP leads to 6 more wins, and the replacement of about 30% of the team's ABs results in another 3 more wins, that puts the Jays at 90 wins from last year.

Optimistic? Surely. But not as crazy as it sounds.

You'd have to be crazy to think this bullpen is worth 6 more wins that last year's. It's essentially the same. They would have had to sign Papelbon and Madson on top of Santos to get anywhere near 6 additional wins.

The only improvement on the hitting side that I can see is Lawrie over Rivera and Rasmus over Davis. Hill and Johnson are pretty close to a wash. And we had all three of those guys for half a season in 2011, anyway.

[WpgPage]

You'd have to be crazy to think this bullpen is worth 6 more wins that last year's. It's essentially the same. They would have had to sign Papelbon and Madson on top of Santos to get anywhere near 6 additional wins.

The only improvement on the hitting side that I can see is Lawrie over Rivera and Rasmus over Davis. Hill and Johnson are pretty close to a wash. And we had all three of those guys for half a season in 2011, anyway.

Ill agree 6 wins is a little high but I can see it being worth 4 wins, WAR for relievers really doesn't tell the entire story in my opinion. What can we realistically expect from the Jays in 2012? Taking the Jays Pythagorean of 79 wins and adding in full seasons from some of the improvements (I used a full season as 150 games and approximated rWar from that, not perfect I know) 2B Arron Hill on pace for -0.5 WAR, 3B a real homage of nothing there other than the 25 games from Jose, and the 40 games by Lawrie at 3B the highest WAR was 1.0 the average of the entire group was 2.5 rWAR 1.4 of that coming from Jose's 25 games. CF Rajai managed a pace of -1.2 but Patterson managed a pace 1.5?? together they set the world on fire to the tune of -0.3 WAR over 150 games. Their replacements; KJ can pretty easily be projected to be worth 2.0 WAR, Rasmus even if he is terrible only needs to put up 0.7 WAR to be a huge improvement something he should be able to do no problem. Finally at 3B I don't think it would be a huge stretch to predict a 4.0 WAR season from Lawrie based on what he did in his first 40 games. So thats 79+2.5+1+1.5= 84 wins That's with 0 BP improvements and no improvements from the starting 5. Add in a closer that converted on 83% of his save opportunities rather than a group that managed 63% and you have a team that can easily win 85-88 games.

[Randle McMurphy]

Jays won 81 games last year with a not so good BP and over 1700 AB from stiffs like Hill, Patterson, Nix, McCoy, Rivera, Davis, and McDonald.

If you figure an improved BP leads to 6 more wins, and the replacement of about 30% of the team's ABs results in another 3 more wins, that puts the Jays at 90 wins from last year.

Optimistic? Surely. But not as crazy as it sounds.

You'd have to be crazy to think this bullpen is worth 6 more wins that last year's. It's essentially the same. They would have had to sign Papelbon and Madson on top of Santos to get anywhere near 6 additional wins.

The only improvement on the hitting side that I can see is Lawrie over Rivera and Rasmus over Davis. Hill and Johnson are pretty close to a wash. And we had all three of those guys for half a season in 2011, anyway.

You're right about the bullpen, but Kelly Johnson is quite a bit better than the 2010/2011 awful version of Aaron Hill.

[Skin Blues]

I'm glad we made the switch, but he's not that much better. A couple more wins with Kelly if things go as they should. Would not be surprised in the least if Hill tops him in WAR in 2012, though. Whatever they had him doing in Arizona was obviously more productive than the hopeless flailing that he perfected in Toronto.

Any way you slice it, this team is not going to win 90 games. Darvish would have helped a lot. C'est la vie.

[satyr9]

I'm glad we made the switch, but he's not that much better. A couple more wins with Kelly if things go as they should. Would not be surprised in the least if Hill tops him in WAR in 2012, though. Whatever they had him doing in Arizona was obviously more productive than the hopeless flailing that he perfected in Toronto.

Any way you slice it, this team is not going to win 90 games. Darvish would have helped a lot. C'est la vie.

Can they be comparable players? Sure. Is it likely KJ will produce at the level Hill did last year? It is not likely at all. KJ is going to give the Jays way more production than Hill did in 2011, of all the improvements that's the easiest one to project. Not because KJ is good. Because Hill in 2011 was that bad while he was a Jay that year.

The upgrade for this season over last isn't about comparable talent, simply that Hill had a freaking terribad season in ever sense of the (non)word, one that KJ is unlikely to duplicate. Even if he slumps terribly and plays at replacement level he's still giving you an extra win over Hill.

[Lateral Quicks]

It's actually hard to call who will be better in 2012, KJ or Hill. But I think we can say with a good amount of confidence that KJ 2012 will be much better than Hill 2011 on the Blue Jays. I wish Hill a lot of success; maybe he just needed a change of scenery to right himself.

[BobbyBoy]

I would think KJ would be better than Hill next year. But we have seen what Hill can do (2009), and KJ can do some good things. KJ had a strong first half, but a bad second half last year. So if KJ can do well the whole year then I think were fine.