Optimistic Hitting Projection - 2012

[lilneige]

1. R Yunel Escobar -----------.289/.366/.401
(his career average)

2. L Colby Rasmus ------------.276/.361/.498
(2010 numbers)

3. R Jose Bautista ------------.302/.447/.608
(numbers from last year)

4. L Adam Lind----------------.300/.349/.515
(2011 1st-half of season numbers)

5. R Edwin Encarnacion---------.291/.382/.504
(2011 2nd-half of season numbers)

6. R Brett Lawrie---------------.296/.360/.492
(his minor league career average)

7. L Eric Thames---------------.262/.313/.456
(numbers from last year)

8. R J.P Arencibia---------------.219/.282/.438
(numbers from last year)

9. L Kelly Johnson--------------.270/.364/.417
(numbers from last year while playing for Jays)

[Skin Blues]

Realistic projections (ignore playing time portion): http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/ora ... _blue_jays



FWIW, d'Arnaud is already projected to be as good a hitter as Arencibia. And Francisco's are better than either Thames' or Snider's. Obviously the latter two have more room to improve, though.

[BobbyBoy]

Realistic projections (ignore playing time portion): http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/ora ... _blue_jays



FWIW, d'Arnaud is already projected to be as good a hitter as Arencibia. And Francisco's are better than either Thames' or Snider's. Obviously the latter two have more room to improve, though.

Wow. Those are pretty harsh

[Skin Blues]

That's what happens when you take off the rose-coloured galsses and don't cherry-pick stats. As a Jays fan I'd love to see them put up the optimistic numbers, but it's just not gonna happen.

[Schad]

The BTF numbers aren't really harsh at all; assuming replacement-level production from backups and kiddies, that's an above-average offense, probably in line with our 2010 OPS+, and with average situational hitting, probably good for 780 runs or thereabouts. Assume a marginal improvement in our pitching (say, down to 740 runs) and you have a team whose expected record would be around 85-77...not world-beating, but hardly harsh.

[Randle McMurphy]

Yeah...I would be more than fine with that many players in our starting lineup with an OPS+ over 100 (especially when Yunel Escobar, one of the team's most dependable OBP guys, isn't even one of them).

That would be a serious bounceback season for Adam Lind considering his last two, for example, one in which I don't really expect.

[lilneige]

That realistic projection isn't harsh at all.

just name a few,

Rasmus .173/.201/.316 (Numbers with Jays last year)
EE .255.283.405 (1st-half of last year)
Lind .197/.233/.356 (2nd-half of last year)
Escobar .238/.334/.284 (2010 with Atlanta)


Those numbers are flat out ugly, it indicates that our lineup has upside, but fluctuate significently.

[Lateral Quicks]

Those "realistic" numbers, while not horrible, would be pretty disappointing. I'd be shocked if our best average hitter bats .275. In fact to my eye most of the averages look to be on the low side.