Adjusted Mid-Range Shooting Rates

EvanZ · Post #1 » by **EvanZ** » Sun Feb 5, 2012 12:20 am

Most knowledgeable fans know that mid-range jumpers are less efficient than inside or 3-pt shots. Consequently, many players have garnered reputations for "overshooting" these (bad) shots. For a while I've thought that it's probably overstated, because to a large extent, teams can't help it, and the responsibility usually falls to the players who can shoot them the best. That's just been my opinion. Well, now I have some data to back it up.

I've gone and done an APM-style analysis of mid-range shooting rates for last season. There is an offensive rating and defensive rating. The rating represents the effect of a player on the total number of mid-range shots taken by a team per 100 possessions. On offense, negative ratings are better (i.e. fewer shots). On defense, it is the opposite. What is really interesting is that it looks like there are actually very few players with high positive ratings on offense, and most of these are bigs. Anyway, here's the link to my post:

http://thecity2.com/2012/02/04/adjusted ... ting-data/

Clipsz 4 Life · Post #2 » by **Tim Lehrbach** » Sun Feb 5, 2012 7:44 am

This is very interesting information. Unfortunately, the player whose offensive effect I was most interested in learning, LaMarcus Aldridge, is not included in the sample. Does this mean he falls into that middle range and cannot be considered to significantly effect the incidence of mid-range jumpers either way? Even that would be an interesting score because he takes so many of these shots himself.

EvanZ · Post #3 » by **EvanZ** » Sun Feb 5, 2012 12:12 pm

Aldridge OAMRS is -0.94 +/- 1.82 with p = 0.6, so I did not include him in the list. His DAMRS is +3.23 +/- 1.82 with a p=0.07, so he just missed significance, but appears to have a positive effect on defense.

What you can take away from this is that even though Aldridge is a high-volume mid-range shooter, he does not increase the overall rate of those shots at the team-level. If you read the previous post where I did WOWY analysis, you'll find that when Aldridge is on the court, POR actually averages a little over 5 mid-range shots *fewer* than when we his off the court:

http://thecity2.com/2012/02/02/i-can-li ... e-jumpers/

I tend to receive a lot of blowback when I say "Somebody has to take those shot", but I think this is pretty convincing evidence to that effect. You can't use this to say a particular player *should* be the one taking those shots, that would involve looking at efficiency, which I plan to do in a future study.

Clipsz 4 Life · Post #4 » by **Tim Lehrbach** » Sun Feb 5, 2012 8:53 pm

EvanZ wrote:I tend to receive a lot of blowback when I say "Somebody has to take those shot", but I think this is pretty convincing evidence to that effect. You can't use this to say a particular player *should* be the one taking those shots, that would involve looking at efficiency, which I plan to do in a future study.

...and my interest in Aldridge comes mostly from the three facts that (1) he takes so many mid-range jumpers, (2) he hits them at a very high rate relative to the rest of the league (or at least has in the past, haven't checked in a while), and (3) the Blazers' offense has been much more efficient (points per possession and EFG%) with him than without him every year of his career, despite his merely average overall scoring efficiency. Add to this a fourth fact from your data, that he is not increasing the incidence of mid-range jumpers for the Blazers' team, and it all points (maybe) to the very high value of Aldridge being the right guy to take the lion's share of those shots.

EvanZ · Post #5 » by **EvanZ** » Sun Feb 5, 2012 9:24 pm

Tim Lehrbach wrote:Add to this a fourth fact from your data, that he is not increasing the incidence of mid-range jumpers for the Blazers' team, and it all points (maybe) to the very high value of Aldridge being the right guy to take the lion's share of those shots.

Yes.

Brown Notes · Post #6 » by **Brown Notes** » Mon Feb 6, 2012 6:07 pm

Is there a reason Paul Millsap isn't mentioned in there at all? He's got to be one of the most efficient mid range shooters in the game.

EvanZ · Post #7 » by **EvanZ** » Mon Feb 6, 2012 6:38 pm

Brown Notes wrote:Is there a reason Paul Millsap isn't mentioned in there at all? He's got to be one of the most efficient mid range shooters in the game.

This particular study is not about efficiency, actually. It simply asks the question whether mid-range shot *attempts* at the *team* level are increased or decreased with certain players on the floor.

The working theory, so to speak, is that very few shooters actually cause a significant increase in the number of mid-range jump shots, even those who are often criticized for "overshooting".

Efficiency is something that can be studied in a similar way, however. What I can do is, instead of asking how many shot attempts there are, I can ask, when this player was on the floor what was his effect on the total mid-range shooting efficiency (FG%). In that case Millsap may have a very positive effect.

Also, regarding Millsap, I already do have a shooting metric that takes into account volume and efficiency at the player level (PSAMS), and Millsap is rated very highly by it (#13):

http://thecity2.com/psams-ratings/

Brown Notes · Post #8 » by **Brown Notes** » Mon Feb 6, 2012 8:14 pm

Ok, I think I get it.

Say, player X gets a ton of shots at the rim therefore if his usage is high he gets a good rating in this stat since every one of those shots keeps somebody else from taking a bad one.

Good stuff, thanks.

EvanZ · Post #9 » by **EvanZ** » Wed Feb 8, 2012 3:54 pm

New post:

3-yr Adjusted Mid-Range Shooting