Good read on Wade's changing role -Jump shot/offense related

[Miamis3rdRing]

Thought this was a good read. Gives some answers to the question's we've been asking. Where the hell has his jumpshot been? Why is he throwing up these crazy shots? Etc...

Dwyane Wade provided plenty of his spectacular, yet standard, fakes and flips, twists and turns, spins and slams Friday night. Still, there were two simpler plays against Philadelphia that truly made you take notice, because they took you back. They took you back to a time when the Heat guard could actually take a good long look at his target before taking a shot.

The attempts came roughly six minutes apart, one in transition and one in the half court, from nearly the identical spot - 15 feet from the basket, just left of center. They were pull-up jumpers taken under perfect balance, released with perfect rotation. They were suitable for framing and, considering their current rarity, savoring.

"I would love to shoot more of them," Wade said after scoring 26 points on 10-of-20 shooting, numbers that he'll get a chance to repeat Sunday against Toronto. "I'm trying, I'm trying to figure it out. (Against Philadelphia), I shot it more because I was on attack early, so I was able to have them back on their heels a little bit. Obviously, that's a high-percentage shot for me. And I'm going to try to figure out a way where I can mix them in, because when I'm hitting those, it really gets me going and it really makes our team better and makes me tougher to stop."

Full article:
http://www.palmbeachpost.com/sports/hea ... 49304.html

Summary:
- Wants to take more mid-range shots. Says it gets him going and makes the team more dangerous.

- He used to get the ball at the top of the key but is getting it in different positions now. Can't see everybody as well. Reason he's trying some wild shots is because he's adjusting to his role/position on the court.

- Shot 45% during the first 14 games last season, same as this season.


"TheAnkh" has mentioned his position on the court several times, and I have to agree with him.

In the Bulls game Rip was doing a good job on him, but I remember when Wade started with the ball at the top of the key and went at him with a full head of steam he was effective.

[mopper8]

This is a re-post from the GB, answering the question, "Is Wade on the decline?" In line with that article, notice he's shooting a career high from 10-15 feet.

I'm going to say, "no," or at most, slightly. Look at his shoot breakdown by floor location as compared to his best season, and last season. I'm omitting 3-pointers because he's basically cut them out of his game completely (and will touch them after the breakdown):

Code: Select all

Yr | RimAt | Rim% | 3-9 FtA | 3-9 Ft% | 10-15 FtA | 10-15% | 16-23A | 16-23%
09 |  7.5  |  66% |   1.4   |  51%    |    1.7    |  42%   |   7.8  |  42% 
11 |  7.2  |  67% |   2.9   |  50%    |    1.7    |  39%   |   3.7  |  37%   
12 |  6.3  |  63% |   2.7   |  29%    |    2.3    |  48%   |   5.4  |  33%


So...he's clearly a little worse than his best season. But he's also playing fewer minutes. 34 this season, as compared to 37 last year and 38.6 in 09. His At-Rim FG% is right in line with his career numbers, and the slight dip is easily attributable to playing ~1/3 of the season with some maladies. He's shooting the best of his career from 10-15 feet (or at least since 2007, as far back as the data goes). He's taking more shots from 16-23 Ft this year, but not because he's "settling"...he's taking 2.3 fewer 3-pointers/game this year than last...1.7 of those have turned into long 2's instead. His fg% from out there is lower, but really, his dip in efficiency is almost entirely attributable to his poor fg% from 3-9 feet, which is totally out-of-whack. If he's shooting 50% from 3-9 feet, his total fg% jumps to 48%. The other place he's losing points is at the Ft stripe, where his attempts are down 2 per game from last season.

So, he's taking 1 fewer attempt per game, getting fouled one fewer time per game, and shooting particularly poorly from 3-9 feet. Given his fg% from other areas on the floor, I think its safe to say that his fg% from 3-9 feet will creep up and at least approach 50% again, and that likely you can chalk that up to small sample size + playing on a bad leg for a portion of the season. He's slightly upped his fga since returning from injury, and he's shooting a tad of 47% since then as well, so he's already showing signs of returning to form. He's also bumped up to 7.6 fta since coming from injury as well, which puts him back towards where he was last season. And that's in 31.5 mpg. He's averaging 26 points per 36 minutes since returning. [In comparison, he averaged 28.2 per 36 his best year, on higher usage]

His assists are also up this season to 5.5 from 4.6. His TOs are at a career low.

So, in sum: he's playing fewer minutes this season than in seasons past, his production post-injury is right in line with his career averages and only slightly down from his best season, his efficiency is being dragged down mostly by factors that are likely to improve now that he's healthy, and his scoring numbers are effected in part not by decline but rather by a focus distributing more and shooting less (1 fewer total fga per game with 1 more assist per game).

That doesn't paint a picture of a guy in decline, it paints a picture of a guy who had some bad games while injured and looks like his old self now, only in fewer minutes per game.

[DWadeno3]

This is a re-post from the GB, answering the question, "Is Wade on the decline?" In line with that article, notice he's shooting a career high from 10-15 feet.

I'm going to say, "no," or at most, slightly. Look at his shoot breakdown by floor location as compared to his best season, and last season. I'm omitting 3-pointers because he's basically cut them out of his game completely (and will touch them after the breakdown):

Code: Select all

Yr | RimAt | Rim% | 3-9 FtA | 3-9 Ft% | 10-15 FtA | 10-15% | 16-23A | 16-23%
09 |  7.5  |  66% |   1.4   |  51%    |    1.7    |  42%   |   7.8  |  42% 
11 |  7.2  |  67% |   2.9   |  50%    |    1.7    |  39%   |   3.7  |  37%   
12 |  6.3  |  63% |   2.7   |  29%    |    2.3    |  48%   |   5.4  |  33%


So...he's clearly a little worse than his best season. But he's also playing fewer minutes. 34 this season, as compared to 37 last year and 38.6 in 09. His At-Rim FG% is right in line with his career numbers, and the slight dip is easily attributable to playing ~1/3 of the season with some maladies. He's shooting the best of his career from 10-15 feet (or at least since 2007, as far back as the data goes). He's taking more shots from 16-23 Ft this year, but not because he's "settling"...he's taking 2.3 fewer 3-pointers/game this year than last...1.7 of those have turned into long 2's instead. His fg% from out there is lower, but really, his dip in efficiency is almost entirely attributable to his poor fg% from 3-9 feet, which is totally out-of-whack. If he's shooting 50% from 3-9 feet, his total fg% jumps to 48%. The other place he's losing points is at the Ft stripe, where his attempts are down 2 per game from last season.

So, he's taking 1 fewer attempt per game, getting fouled one fewer time per game, and shooting particularly poorly from 3-9 feet. Given his fg% from other areas on the floor, I think its safe to say that his fg% from 3-9 feet will creep up and at least approach 50% again, and that likely you can chalk that up to small sample size + playing on a bad leg for a portion of the season. He's slightly upped his fga since returning from injury, and he's shooting a tad of 47% since then as well, so he's already showing signs of returning to form. He's also bumped up to 7.6 fta since coming from injury as well, which puts him back towards where he was last season. And that's in 31.5 mpg. He's averaging 26 points per 36 minutes since returning. [In comparison, he averaged 28.2 per 36 his best year, on higher usage]

His assists are also up this season to 5.5 from 4.6. His TOs are at a career low.

So, in sum: he's playing fewer minutes this season than in seasons past, his production post-injury is right in line with his career averages and only slightly down from his best season, his efficiency is being dragged down mostly by factors that are likely to improve now that he's healthy, and his scoring numbers are effected in part not by decline but rather by a focus distributing more and shooting less (1 fewer total fga per game with 1 more assist per game).

That doesn't paint a picture of a guy in decline, it paints a picture of a guy who had some bad games while injured and looks like his old self now, only in fewer minutes per game.

Great analysis and great thread in general to clarify some issues that have been a topic of discussion for a while now. As I said before, the guy has been injured, but, as TheAnkh has pointed out several times as well, he also had to adjust to operating from different areas on the court.

[tsherkin]

This is an interesting thought. The notion of decline is one of those things that we really haven't defined until the player is clearly deep into the decline. It starts with a physical decline that's mostly covered up by the player making up for it with new skills. Jordan's physical decline was evident in 95, for example, though people wanted to put a lot of it on his lay-off, lack of training camp, etc. And to some extent, there it was. But even he admitted that he wasn't quite the same as he'd been previously. He re-focused his game, found ways to attack that were a little different and dominated for several more years.

I think that's where Wade is right now, re-evaluating his game and trying to add more stuff. Injuries have made him look worse than he is right now, and this schedule does no one any favors. He's not "in decline" in the sense that he's any worse than he was last year or in 2010, though.

I am, however, staggeringly unimpressed with Dwyane Wade's inability to develop a strong jumper under the arc. Lebron did it, Amare did it, I'm waiting for Wade to be something other than mediocre there. He's been a below-average shooter from 16-23 feet basically his entire carer apart from 09, though I should point out that he's absolutely murdering it from mid-range this year on those shots by the elbow or otherwise just outside of the paint or in the bottom half of the circle.

That pull-up really is a nasty, nasty weapon and he's right to want to be able to use it more frequently.

[HeatFanSince87]

This is an interesting thought. The notion of decline is one of those things that we really haven't defined until the player is clearly deep into the decline. It starts with a physical decline that's mostly covered up by the player making up for it with new skills. Jordan's physical decline was evident in 95, for example, though people wanted to put a lot of it on his lay-off, lack of training camp, etc. And to some extent, there it was. But even he admitted that he wasn't quite the same as he'd been previously. He re-focused his game, found ways to attack that were a little different and dominated for several more years.

I think that's where Wade is right now, re-evaluating his game and trying to add more stuff. Injuries have made him look worse than he is right now, and this schedule does no one any favors. He's not "in decline" in the sense that he's any worse than he was last year or in 2010, though.


I am, however, staggeringly unimpressed with Dwyane Wade's inability to develop a strong jumper under the arc. Lebron did it, Amare did it, I'm waiting for Wade to be something other than mediocre there. He's been a below-average shooter from 16-23 feet basically his entire carer apart from 09, though I should point out that he's absolutely murdering it from mid-range this year on those shots by the elbow or otherwise just outside of the paint or in the bottom half of the circle.

That pull-up really is a nasty, nasty weapon and he's right to want to be able to use it more frequently.

Agree with everything you said!

[-MK-]

I am, however, staggeringly unimpressed with Dwyane Wade's inability to develop a strong jumper under the arc. Lebron did it, Amare did it, I'm waiting for Wade to be something other than mediocre there. He's been a below-average shooter from 16-23 feet basically his entire carer apart from 09, though I should point out that he's absolutely murdering it from mid-range this year on those shots by the elbow or otherwise just outside of the paint or in the bottom half of the circle.

He was money from mid-range in '05-'06 and the 1st half of '06-'07, before his shoulder injury. So, I think that has contributed a bit to it.

[tsherkin]

He was money from mid-range in '05-'06 and the 1st half of '06-'07, before his shoulder injury. So, I think that has contributed a bit to it.

To an extent; I don't want to belabor the point much because that kind of harsh negativity has little place on the home board of his team. He's still a remarkable player and he's improved in other areas, I'm just disappointed because he could be so much better, you know?

[Vertical Limit]

Yep, he could be the best in the game if he wanted to. Dwyane has coasted and held out too much in his career it's really disappointing but he's fine with it.

He has all the tools of Jordan except for one thing and that's determination to be the best.

Still a top player in the league, but he plays like a borderline Top 15 player in the regular season and plays like a Top 3 player/best player in the league, in the postseason.

[GreenHat]

Yep, he could be the best in the game if he wanted to. Dwyane has coasted and held out too much in his career it's really disappointing but he's fine with it.

He has all the tools of Jordan except for one thing and that's determination to be the best.

Still a top player in the league, but he plays like a borderline Top 15 player in the regular season and plays like a Top 3 player/best player in the league, in the postseason.

"Determination to be the best" is not the ONE thing Jordan had on Wade.

Jordan's physical skills are always downplayed to hype up his "heart", "determination", "will to win", "competitiveness" and whatever other bull intangibles that people want to attach to him. How does he have the most "will to win" when he is out playing several rounds of golf right before playoff losses? Or out getting drunk the nights before?

Jordan was the best so he got these intangibles attached to him. These intangibles did not make him the best.

Even if Wade had all of Jordan's "intangibles" he still wouldn't be the best player on this team.

And when has Wade played like a borderline top 15 player in the regular season? He has several top 5 seasons.

[Flash4thewin]

Yep, he could be the best in the game if he wanted to. Dwyane has coasted and held out too much in his career it's really disappointing but he's fine with it.

He has all the tools of Jordan except for one thing and that's determination to be the best.

Still a top player in the league, but he plays like a borderline Top 15 player in the regular season and plays like a Top 3 player/best player in the league, in the postseason.

I get the idea that Shaq has left a long lasting impression on Wade when they were teammates

[Chosen01]

Although Wade doesn't have that Jordan-like drive to be the "best" he does have that Jordan-like drive to WIN when it matters, and to me thats ALL that matters.

and Yes I do agree that Shaq had a somewhat bad influence on Wade developing to a coast regular season and turn it up near playoffs and post-season.

[Zasterror]

Being the best is overrated. Like someone else stated, winning is all that matters to people like Wade.

[GreenHat]

Also going by the numbers Mopper posted, if he is trading in nearly all those lost 3s for long 2s then that's even worse.

I would rather Wade, Lebron, Bosh, Miller and Cole take 3s than those long 2s.

[Chosen01]

Long 2s are probably the worst shot you can take,not sure why he traded them for 3s...

He should be doing what LeBron's been doing, taking roughly 2 3s a game.

[GreenHat]

Being the best is overrated. Like someone else stated, winning is all that matters to people like Wade.

Not true at all.

There is no way Wade would want to be the 12th man on a perennial champion.

All great players like being good, getting paid and the other perks. Sure they care about winning a lot but its not the only thing that matters to anyone.

[LEIF]

DWade's game has transitioned very similar to how MJ and Kobe did when they hit around 30...you have to pick and choose your spots to be explosive, sometimes saving your explosiveness for defense (which casual fan wont notice overall)

he also is trying to find his way utilizing the mid range game while keeping the floor spaced and keeping everyone else involved.

Wade is far too crafty to let a drop in athleticism hurt his game from an efficiency or "winning production" standpoint.

he will continue to refine his mid range game, which will get sharper and sharper as he uses it more, and he will also start to learn the ways he can get to the FT line without necessarily going and attacking the rim.

Wade is not on the decline, he is naturally having to evolve his style of play to cater to his changing strengths.

but make no mistake, Wade can still put your favorite shot blocker on a damn poster for your wall if he wants to. pick and choosing spots is just the name of the game for a player at his size that has other skills to develop and utilize.

[Altered_Beast]

DWade's game has transitioned very similar to how MJ and Kobe did when they hit around 30...you have to pick and choose your spots to be explosive, sometimes saving your explosiveness for defense (which casual fan wont notice overall)

he also is trying to find his way utilizing the mid range game while keeping the floor spaced and keeping everyone else involved.

Wade is far too crafty to let a drop in athleticism hurt his game from an efficiency or "winning production" standpoint.

he will continue to refine his mid range game, which will get sharper and sharper as he uses it more, and he will also start to learn the ways he can get to the FT line without necessarily going and attacking the rim.

Wade is not on the decline, he is naturally having to evolve his style of play to cater to his changing strengths.

but make no mistake, Wade can still put your favorite shot blocker on a damn poster for your wall if he wants to. pick and choosing spots is just the name of the game for a player at his size that has other skills to develop and utilize.

i agree with all your points. even though wade just turned 30 i still havent seen a noticeable drop in his athleticism. hes just smarter now about how he plays and his nagging injuries have bothered him. when i watch him play he still jumps as high and is as quick as ever. plus hes much stronger than he was 3-4 years ago. wade will probably play until hes like 36 barring any MAJOR injury. the guy along with lebron is just a freak of nature.

dwyane wade is the ed reed of basketball.

when reed was younger no one was quicker back at the safety spot and no one was as dangerous. but as the injuries racked up and his athleticism declined he changed his game to suit his body yet there has been hardly no decline in production. i foresee wades career to parallel ed reeds (you might think im crazy to compare a bball player to a football player ). wade will eventually lose some speed, vertical but he will only get sharper in his decision making you just watch. he will easily continue to score 24-25 ppg in the next 4-5 seasons and his rebounding might decrease but his assists will go up along with his freethrow and 3p %.

[Zasterror]

I love the Ed Reed comparison (my favorite football player).

[Altered_Beast]

I love the Ed Reed comparison (my favorite football player).

zas this is smash_adams LOL. hows it been brotha? i got ip banned after we lost to the clips lol.

[Zasterror]

I love the Ed Reed comparison (my favorite football player).

zas this is smash_adams LOL. hows it been brotha? i got ip banned after we lost to the clips lol.

Oh snap! Wassup mayne! Damn isn't this like the 2nd time you got banned? Or maybe I am thinking about someone else. Stay outta trouble!