Drafting a starter (probability guide)

[MoMM]

This thread made my head hurt.

I appreciate analytical viewpoints... but 75% of the time I can only absorb 56% of the content.

I think the OP has confirmed many thoughts... the better the draft pick, the better your chances to draft an impact player.

Genius, I know.


I hope he gets an 'A' on his paper.

I think the point here is that many times the teams trade a starter for a mid draft pick and the odds of this pick became a starter are very low, so why trade the starter at 1st place?

I liked the whole idea, but i'd like to add some new ideas:
- Add 3 players to all the teams to determine if they are contenders or not. This way Terry, Odom, etc would count for Dallas, for example. Why +3 players? Because when playoffs comes, basically all the teams ride a 8 players team.
- Determine players values based in the position, like OP told, a 18EFF center is better than a 18EFF SG, so you could use it to value the players as a franchise, starter or bust. For example, the average of a center starter is 15 and a SG is 18, so a franchise center should be 20 and a SG a 22.

Another interesting thesis, IMO, is to determine if you have a better chance to draft a starter in 2nd round based on where he is from: HS, International or NCAA (segmented in rookie, senior, etc).

[Beetlejuice]

This thread made my head hurt.

I appreciate analytical viewpoints... but 75% of the time I can only absorb 56% of the content.

I think the OP has confirmed many thoughts... the better the draft pick, the better your chances to draft an impact player.

Genius, I know.


I hope he gets an 'A' on his paper.

I think the point here is that many times the teams trade a starter for a mid draft pick and the odds of this pick became a starter are very low, so why trade the starter at 1st place?

I liked the whole idea, but i'd like to add some new ideas:
- Add 3 players to all the teams to determine if they are contenders or not. This way Terry, Odom, etc would count for Dallas, for example. Why +3 players? Because when playoffs comes, basically all the teams ride a 8 players team.
- Determine players values based in the position, like OP told, a 18EFF center is better than a 18EFF SG, so you could use it to value the players as a franchise, starter or bust. For example, the average of a center starter is 15 and a SG is 18, so a franchise center should be 20 and a SG a 22.

Another interesting thesis, IMO, is to determine if you have a better chance to draft a starter in 2nd round based on where he is from: HS, International or NCAA (segmented in rookie, senior, etc).

Excatly, plus i wanted to see if there is good value in losing games for 5+ picks , but like history shows us if you already dont have really good pieces in place (you only need 1 really good player) then the value you get from 6+ picks are not enough to make a impact.

2nd point: That really was not my goal, that segment was only to set a benchmark. I posted it just because to show why i chose 15 efficiency as a cutoff. Plus it kind of shows only the talent accumulated, but big differences from year to year might show how good is team "fit" and is the team using him in the right/wrong way. Probably should use minutes+ efficiency to determine and i imagine it gets really messy, but if i have some time i may take a crack at it.

3rd point Its is really hard to determine those values(too subjective) and it looks only at the box score numbers, its a decent idea but 1 statistic is too flawed at giving that value. For excample lets take Perkings trade, at Oklahoma his efficiency dropped ~33% but he is a great fit there and the team actually got stronger plus Perkins didn`t get suddenly much worse.

4th point 2nd round you have 1-2% probability of drafting a player with 15+ efficiency alltogether so breaking down that 1-2% its a bit arbitrary.