Double-A can succeed: Here's a planDespite the best efforts of several intelligent men with plenty of experience as owners and managers of sports teams, Triple-A baseball failed in Ottawa. So what's going to be different about Double-A?
The Ottawa market is dominated by the NHL Senators, and baseball won't be the only new entry into the field. Professional football and soccer teams are being added over the next few years at a refurbished Lansdowne Park. For minor-league baseball to succeed if it returns to Ottawa next year, several things have to fall into place:
More population growth: It's good news for Ottawa's sports team owners that the city is, according to the latest census, one of the fastest-growing in the country, but are there enough people to support three new teams, plus the Senators and 67's? The Conference Board of Canada recently determined that a city can support total annual attendance at professional sporting events equal to its entire population. So, if metropolitan Ottawa is 1.2 million, that's how many tickets people will buy for all the pro sports teams combined. The formula is based on higher-priced professional teams, so you might reasonably expect more capacity for junior and minor-league teams. However, the Senators have about 800,000 tickets to sell each year. The new Canadian Football League team will be aiming to sell 200,000 or more. That doesn't leave a lot of capacity in the market for the 67's and the new soccer and baseball teams.
Interest in the majors: It will help if Beacon Sports Capital Partners, with whom the city is negotiating a 10-year lease, is successful in making the team an affiliate of the Toronto Blue Jays. For the Double-A franchise to thrive, more people will have to follow baseball at all levels. The Triple-A Lynx suffered when interest in Canada declined after the 1994 strike that cost the Montreal Expos a run at the World Series. And it didn't just happen here. Minor league teams disappeared from several other Canadian cities. Is fan interest sufficiently higher now? The Blue Jays have lots of exposure on national television, which will help. It wouldn't hurt if they had a few surprisingly good seasons, and maybe a run for a playoff berth, in the next few years.
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