Why don't the Jays upgrade at DH? + discussion with Wilner

[JaysRangers]

Here is my thoughts on what the Jays should do at DH

I don’t understand why the Jay’s don’t take a “flyer” on one or two of Manny Ramirez, Hideki Matsui, Vladimir Guerrero, Johnny Damon, Derek Lee either on a 1 year 1-3 million dollar deal or spring training invites. We’ve given all of these veteran pitchers 1 year deals to improve our pen (this year and last year), yet we can’t attempt to improve our DH? We are paying Edwin the same length and term (1 year, 3.5 million) and there is no valid reason to say Edwin has earned a every day DH job. Why the hell not bring in a vet at DH?

The scenario is low risk and high reward potential.

And for the record a everyday 1B/DH combo of Lind and Edwin is one, if not, the worst in the AL. (Oakland, Seattle, Baltimore only possible worse combos)

Thoughts?

Your thoughts RealGM????

Also shot that post over to Mike Wilner of the Fan 590 this was his response to the above post

Interesting handle,

See the discussion about Manny Ramirez above, but I don’t know why you’d be so anxious to see the Jays go after a veteran player on the downside of his career rather than giving an opportunity to a 29 year-old whose career could still be on the rise. Encarnacion hit .296/.361/.494 in his half-season (294 plate appearances) as the Jays’ DH last year, and there’s not a thing wrong with that. Those numbers are better than those of any of the other players you mentioned above. It should be noted, too, that Edwin started to really rake as soon as the Jays decided that they were moving Jose Bautista back to third base at the end of June, meaning Encarnacion wouldn’t have to worry about embarrassing himself on defense on a regular basis. From Bautista’s first game at third through the Jays’ final home game of the season (after which Edwin tweaked his wrist), Encarnacion hit .295/.370/.516 – an OPS of .886 that ranked behind only Bautista and Brett Lawrie. In fact, his full-season OPS of .787 was third on the club, too. Of the group you mention, the highest 2011 OPS belonged to Lee. and his .771 was still worse than what Edwin managed over the full season, including his awful first half (.255/.290/.388 prior to June 28). And since the youngest of the group you mention is the 36 year-old Lee, none of them are going to be getting any better. Try not to get caught up in the names and the resumes.

[JaysRangers]

For those interested Here was my response back at Wilner

The answer to your first question is because Edwin is not a rookie. This is a 8 year pro, we know for the most part what he is capable of and what he is capable of would be great in a reserve role but as a starting DH in the AL East it simply does not cut it.

As mentioned we are doing the the same thing with the bullpen, Oliver and Cordero are on the downside of there careers but they still have something in the tank and can help this team win now. Which is exactly why i want them to take a shot on one of the fore mentioned DH's to give the Jays the best chance of winning.

These players best years are behind them that doesn't mean they aren't better then Edwin right now.

- Johnny Damon is still good enough to be a #5 hitter on a playoff team last year, he's good enough to be this team's DH for the 2012 season
- Hideki Matsui played in a pitchers park in Oakland last year, he is plenty capable of repeating his 2010 Angels line of 21 & 84 (.274/.361,/.459/.820) - which is better then any full year Edwin has produced in the majors
- Vladimir Guerrero is also a year removed from 29 & 115 (.300/.345/.496/.841) and check his career #'s at the Rogers Center, even last years Roger Center #'s with the Orioles - not alot in the tank with Vlad but give me him over Edwin any day of the week
- Derek Lee hasn't faired to well last couple of years, what he did in Pittsburgh though for 28 games however was impressive and there is probably something still left and would be worth taking a look at (low risk, high reward)
- Manny Ramirez, a spring training invite would suffice for me. Let's see whats left in the tank.

Also im not buying into the Edwin splits are better as a DH vs a 3B so lets be hopeful theory.

[baulderdash77]

I do think that Edwin is a better option than the guys out there right now. They're all on the downside of their careers so not likely to be better than last year's results. Edwin's career numbers suggest he can be a decent but not great option. If he really is going to be better because of the move to DH, and lets be honest his defense was clearly getting to him; then I say give him a few months and then if it isn't working out make a trade.

[Modern_epic]

I don't dispute the Edwin may be a better option than those guys, but there are two things Wilner is missing. 1) shifting to being a full time DH is generally worse for a player's hitting than playing in the field. 2) Players peak around age 26-28, and on average 30 is the first big fall off of their career.

But we should probably be talking about replacing Lind over EE.

[LBJSeizedMyID]

I agree with Wilner on this one. Although I'd love to see Damon here, all players have similar upside as EE in my opinion.

[satyr9]

But we should probably be talking about replacing Lind over EE.

+1

[rarefind]

The issue isn't necessarily EE, it is the uncertainty that comes with both him and Lind. If there is no production at 1B and DH this year we will be in for some disappointment this year. That is why taking a flyer on a potential option could work for us if they come cheaply. Not so much a primary option as opposed to some sort of contingency plan to shoot some production into our lineup.

We simply cannot afford sub par seasons from EE and Lind if they are going to play everyday which it appears they certainly will.

[Lateral Quicks]

Wilner is right, EE is the better option right now. When he's not playing 3rd he provides decent production at a bargain-basement price. My only concern with EE is his notoriously slow starts. If he could get off to a good start, I think you'd see a season OPS of .850 with 25-30 HRs, which would actually be very good production from the DH spot.

[Mattd97]

were not going for it this year, why waste the at bats on a guy with no chance of being part of our future

[BigLeagueChew]

Wilner is right, EE is the better option right now. When he's not playing 3rd he provides decent production at a bargain-basement price. My only concern with EE is his notoriously slow starts. If he could get off to a good start, I think you'd see a season OPS of .850 with 25-30 HRs, which would actually be very good production from the DH spot.

Pretty much agree with all of this.

Erase his slow start and he has a career year. He missed tons of games after making errors at 3rd last year, and even a few games where Patterson or Riviera were in the lineup instead of him, which was a joke.

You could also argue that having a DH isn't as valuable of a piece to have in on your team as it once was. DH numbers have been declining for awhile now so trading any of out top prospects for a DH would gererally be a loss in value.

[satyr9]

Unless Lind can do something to prove his big year wasn't a fluke, I think we'll see quite a bit of EE at 1B against lefty starters. I actually quite like a potentially lineup like this:

vs LHP
Escobar-SS-R
Johnson-2B-L
Bautista-RF-R
Encarnacion-1B-R
Lawrie-3B-R
Rasmus-CF-L
Francisco-LF/DH-R
Arencibia-C-R
Davis-LF/DH-R

I'd be inclined to put Francisco in LF over Davis, except it's more likely you keep Davis' positional eligibility for the game, unless McCoy makes the squad over Vizquel or Valbuena 'cause he can play emergency CF. Rasmus and Johnson have virtually no split issues against LHP and Davis can actually hit LHP.

[JaysRangers]

were not going for it this year, why waste the at bats on a guy with no chance of being part of our future

Then why improve our bullpen with veterans like Oliver and Cordero and trading back for Frasor? and have them in the pen over players like Joel Carreño?

Winning now and focusing on the future don't have to contradict each other.

And since when is Edwin apart of our future?

[JaysRangers]

But we should probably be talking about replacing Lind over EE.

I agree but that doesn't appear to be in the plans for a while.

[JaysRangers]

The issue isn't necessarily EE, it is the uncertainty that comes with both him and Lind. If there is no production at 1B and DH this year we will be in for some disappointment this year. That is why taking a flyer on a potential option could work for us if they come cheaply. Not so much a primary option as opposed to some sort of contingency plan to shoot some production into our lineup.

We simply cannot afford sub par seasons from EE and Lind if they are going to play everyday which it appears they certainly will.

Indeed

[Wo1verine]

Unless Lind can do something to prove his big year wasn't a fluke, I think we'll see quite a bit of EE at 1B against lefty starters. I actually quite like a potentially lineup like this:

vs LHP
Escobar-SS-R
Johnson-2B-L
Bautista-RF-R
Encarnacion-1B-R
Lawrie-3B-R
Rasmus-CF-L
Francisco-LF/DH-R
Arencibia-C-R
Davis-LF/DH-R

I'd be inclined to put Francisco in LF over Davis, except it's more likely you keep Davis' positional eligibility for the game, unless McCoy makes the squad over Vizquel or Valbuena 'cause he can play emergency CF. Rasmus and Johnson have virtually no split issues against LHP and Davis can actually hit LHP.

I am so sick of seeing EE or Lind batting 4th, i am already willing to give the cleanup spot to Lawrie. Though when someone asks Farrell about Lawrie and batting 4th, we'll hear the he's only 21 bah, blah ,blah nonsense.

[BobbyBoy]

2 questions:

1. Can the red sox trade Ortiz Right now?
2. Does anyone know how EE is doing in LF?

EDIT: I would be all over Ortiz if he was available. He is friends with Jose and probably is friends with Farrell, so I don't think Ortiz wouldn't like it here. Plus he is a clear upgrade over lind in the lineup. Only thing is EE did very well in the second half, and right now he deserves to be in the starting lineup. But then that leads to my second question in how well is EE doing LF? But we do have snider and thames, so I guess its really Ortiz or EE.

[satyr9]

I am so sick of seeing EE or Lind batting 4th, i am already willing to give the cleanup spot to Lawrie. Though when someone asks Farrell about Lawrie and batting 4th, we'll hear the he's only 21 bah, blah ,blah nonsense.

Well, if 2011 patterns continue, I'll be on that bandwagon very quickly. However, I don't fault anyone for it being that way last year. EE was very hot when Lawrie came up in August and I don't think there would've been a good reason to change anything in Sept.

I'm also a little bullish on EE and bearish on Lawrie in 201. EE I just think is ready for a big year and while I didn't see anything about Lawrie at all, expecting that 900+ OPS for a 22 year-old seems like a recipe for disappointment. In all likelihood the probabilities are probably 50/50, but I'm trying to keep my enthusiasm for Lawrie as tempered as possible, because our expectations for him right now are really just super high.

So I think, barring ST madness, it's unlikely Lawrie takes clean-up from day 1, but IMO he can easily change my, and hopefully Farrell's mind, if he jumps back in to start and rakes in 2012 the way he did at the end of 2011.

Lind, on the other hand, has no business in the heart of the order until he has a consistent run. IMO, if Lind stayed closer to his norms than his 2009 season and none of the kids were struggling, he really might be the 9th hitter against righties and that's it. Now, it's more likely at least one of Thames/Snider, Lawrie, Rasmus, Johnson, and EE perform below Lind against righties, 'cause he's unlikely to drop below a 750 OPS type against righties, but it's in the realm of possibility, to me anyway. Basically, most of this is just emotional overreactions, but I'm pretty tired of Lind these days.

[UN-Owen]

With our current rotation, it doesn't matter who the DH is

We're not a playoff team

[satyr9]

With our current rotation, it doesn't matter who the DH is

We're not a playoff team

Your 2011 WS champion starting rotation:

C.Carpenter (#1 is nice)
J.Garcia (#2? eh, ok)
K.Lohse (#3? really? *shudder*)
J.Westbrook (#4? ugh)
K.McClellan/E.Jackson (#5 gross/bumps the entire rotation into tolerable range, but hardly a strong deep rotation even with EJax)

Carpenter is a pure ace. Fine. Romero is not Carpenter. But, what they gave their team in 2011 is hardly all that different (Romero actually has his ERA beat by about a half run). After that, you don't have to like Morrow all that much to say he can rival Jaime. Give Garcia the edge for now no question, but I promise everyone in Stl was great with him as a #3 and scared witless of him as their #2 (sounds pretty much exactly how people react to Morrow in TOR now) after Wainwright went down. Lohse, Westbrook, and McClellan? That's just gross. In retrospect it actually terrifies me that a team started those guys half their games and ended up winning a WS. All it took was one guy to have a career year (Lohse) and the other two to stay healthy, then a deadline deal to replace the one at the bottom. Ejax bumps Lohse and Westbrook into 4 and 5 and while that's hardly strong, it stops being a major concern for a team trying to compete, especially when Lohse is having such a strong year.

Now, we can do the imbalance for NL central vs. AL East strength (true, but save for another argument) for why this comparison is (Please Use More Appropriate Word) (and it is), but you're making statements like the Jays rotation is J.Saunders, B.Penny, A.Harang, B.Arroyo, and some 28 year-old rookie with a career AAA ERA over 5.00 and it's not that either. Lots of question marks, more than enough to remain heavily sceptical, but I promise after Wainwright got hurt there were massive amounts of Cards fans who felt the same way you do now.

[UN-Owen]

Carpenter is a former Cy Young winner and arguably a top 5 pitcher when healthy

Romero is closer to Garcia than Carpenter


Remember that epic battle in the playoffs between Halladay and Carpenter?

Romero aint on that level...