Josh Smith and Monta Ellis got screwed! (again...)

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Re: Josh Smith and Monta Ellis got screwed! (again...) 

Post#321 » by dice » Sun Feb 12, 2012 10:46 pm

betta1 wrote:
dice wrote:
betta1 wrote:Actually, his scoring efficiency is the reason you were giving him the nod over Smith.

only one factor. and it's not 'cause deng's efficiency is good. it's 'cause smith's is worse

It's not worse. Anyhow, not exactly a ringing endorsement for Deng you're giving there.

deng's TS% was a bit better last year and it's been a bit better this year. and whatever you want to think about josh playing out of position, deng is unquestionably a SF. PFs (or SFs playing PF, or whatever) are expected to have higher TS%s

would deng be a legit all-star based on offense? absolutely not. he's a borderline all-star based on defense, rebounding and intangibles.
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Re: Josh Smith and Monta Ellis got screwed! (again...) 

Post#322 » by dice » Sun Feb 12, 2012 10:47 pm

_BBIB_ wrote:Even the media guys who by no means like the Hawks on TNT all picked Josh Smith on their all-star team

not exactly a ringing endorsement :lol:
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Re: Josh Smith and Monta Ellis got screwed! (again...) 

Post#323 » by _BBIB_ » Sun Feb 12, 2012 10:48 pm

dice wrote:deng's TS% was a bit better last year and it's been a bit better this year. and whatever you want to think about josh playing out of position, deng is unquestionably a SF. PFs (or SFs playing PF, or whatever) are expected to have higher TS%s

would deng be a legit all-star based on offense? absolutely not. he's a borderline all-star based on defense, rebounding and intangibles.


This is a diversionary issue considering they are both FORWARDS. It's about who is the more effective Forward. Josh Smith plays a more vital role on his team than Luol Deng

NO he's not Marvin Williams, that's going way too far. Marvin Williams is a joke compared to Luol Deng

But it's also a joke to suggest that Luol Deng is a more impactful basketball player than Josh Smith
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Re: Josh Smith and Monta Ellis got screwed! (again...) 

Post#324 » by betta1 » Sun Feb 12, 2012 10:51 pm

dice wrote:deng's TS% was a bit better last year and it's been a bit better this year. and whatever you want to think about josh playing out of position, deng is unquestionably a SF. PFs (or SFs playing PF, or whatever) are expected to have higher TS%s

would deng be a legit all-star based on offense? absolutely not. he's a borderline all-star based on defense, rebounding and intangibles.


Smith out-rebounds him. At least on equal footing defensively, though I'd think Smith is the pick on D for most folks.

What do you think is the over/under of coaches that used TS% (again, a completely arbitrary/bogus stat...the .44 factor for FTs?! WTF? Very random...in which Deng is anyway a minuscule amount higher than Smith in..and that's it!) in selecting All-Star reserves? I'd say 1 at most.

Anyway, hope you enjoy Mr. Efficiency going forward. :lol:
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Re: Josh Smith and Monta Ellis got screwed! (again...) 

Post#325 » by dice » Sun Feb 12, 2012 10:53 pm

_BBIB_ wrote:Josh Smith plays a more vital role on his team than Luol Deng

you'd be surprised how much the bulls' elite defense is impacted when lu is out of the lineup. it's been very clear how much he is missed when he was out for several games

But it's also a joke to suggest that Luol Deng is a more impactful basketball player than Josh Smith

as i noted earlier in the thread, i think josh is clearly more impactful, but often in a detrimental way with poor shot selection. deng is nothing if not trustworthy
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Re: Josh Smith and Monta Ellis got screwed! (again...) 

Post#326 » by _BBIB_ » Sun Feb 12, 2012 10:54 pm

Josh Smith- 15.9 PPG
Luol Deng- 15.8 PPG

Josh Smith- 9.3 RPG
Luol Deng- 7.1 RPG

Josh Smith- 3.3 APG
Luol Deng- 2.6 APG

Josh Smith- 1.4 SPG
Luol Deng- 1.2 SPG

Josh Smith- 2.1 BPG
Luol Deng- 0.7 BPG

Josh Smith- .467 FG%
Luol Deng- .437 FG%

So because people want to cherry pick one stat TS%, Luol Deng is a better basketball player?

Really? TS% is the stat you want to use? You want to bash PER and talk about TS%?

Have you ever looked at the all-time TS% list. It's exponentially more frauds on that list as far as all-time greats than the list of all of those other categories.
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Re: Josh Smith and Monta Ellis got screwed! (again...) 

Post#327 » by Ruhiel » Sun Feb 12, 2012 10:55 pm

SFs get to run the wing transition for easy transition buckets. SFs get matched up against guys their size so they can post up more. Smith has to bang around with bigger guys that can bang and wear him out over the course of the game.

How is TS% supposed to go up at PF? Haven't Durant Carmelo Rudy Gay and Lebron all tried that? Deng? Did their TS's go up at PF? do you have a reason How TS% is supposed to go up at PF?

---
FG% vs TS%. TS% probably penalizes Smith for his FT shooting.
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Re: Josh Smith and Monta Ellis got screwed! (again...) 

Post#328 » by dice » Sun Feb 12, 2012 10:56 pm

betta1 wrote:hope you enjoy Mr. Efficiency going forward. :lol:

once again, never said deng was particularly efficient

What do you think is the over/under of coaches that used TS%

probably none. and yet somehow they still got the pick right! :D
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Re: Josh Smith and Monta Ellis got screwed! (again...) 

Post#329 » by _BBIB_ » Sun Feb 12, 2012 10:56 pm

Ruhiel wrote:SFs get to run the wing transition for easy transition buckets. SFs get matched up against guys their size so they can post up more. Smith has to bang around with bigger guys that can bang and wear him out over the course of the game.

How is TS% supposed to go up at PF? Haven't Durant Carmelo Rudy Gay and Lebron all tried that? Curious do you have a reason How TS% is supposed to go up at PF?
And are there #s to back that up?


He's cherry picking that one stat when Josh Smith has the edge over Luol Deng in every other category

And the most hilarious thing about cherry picking that one stat is that stat has NO CORRELATION WHATSOEVER in determining above average to elite players when you see how many average role players who put up great TS% over a season or even a career

http://www.basketball-reference.com/lea ... areer.html
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Re: Josh Smith and Monta Ellis got screwed! (again...) 

Post#330 » by dice » Sun Feb 12, 2012 10:58 pm

_BBIB_ wrote:So because people want to cherry pick one stat TS%, Luol Deng is a better basketball player?

again, nobody said that

Have you ever looked at the all-time TS% list. It's exponentially more frauds on that list as far as all-time greats than the list of all of those other categories.

TS% is used to compare players at similar PPG levels
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Re: Josh Smith and Monta Ellis got screwed! (again...) 

Post#331 » by mysticbb » Sun Feb 12, 2012 10:59 pm

betta1 wrote:Look, I like Deng as a player. But all but some Bulls fans know he's a complementary/role player.


Deng is a complementary player on offense, no doubt about that. He is much better working off the ball than doing something with the ball. BUT Deng was NOT selected as All-Star due to his great offensive game, he is an All-Star, because he is freaking awesome on the defensive end. When Deng is on the court, the Bulls have a 90.2 DRtg, when he is not on the court it goes up to 98.9, and that's while playing 38 minutes per game. His defensive RAPM right now is +4.3 (adjusted for teammates and strength of opponents), that is the best value in the whole league. Deng makes a bigger impact on defense alone than Josh Smith makes overall, and Smith is no slouch either.

I don't know any player in the league who makes less mistakes per possessions than Deng on the defensive end. He is the defensive anchor of the Bulls, he is the reason why the Bulls defense is the best in the league. I know, it is hard to accept, especially when we talk about things happen off the ball, things like correct rotations, timely at double teams, reacting correctly to help out in time, those are minor things to the majority of the so-called basketball fans, but those are the things Deng can do better than pretty much everyone else in the league while playing 38 minutes. Most players losing concentration during a possession or during the game in certain stints on defense, Deng not so much.

So, overall Smith might deserve a All-Star spot, but not the one Deng got. Sorry!
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Re: Josh Smith and Monta Ellis got screwed! (again...) 

Post#332 » by Ruhiel » Sun Feb 12, 2012 10:59 pm

_BBIB_ wrote:
Ruhiel wrote:SFs get to run the wing transition for easy transition buckets. SFs get matched up against guys their size so they can post up more. Smith has to bang around with bigger guys that can bang and wear him out over the course of the game.

How is TS% supposed to go up at PF? Haven't Durant Carmelo Rudy Gay and Lebron all tried that? Curious do you have a reason How TS% is supposed to go up at PF?
And are there #s to back that up?


He's cherry picking that one stat when Josh Smith has the edge over Luol Deng in every other category

And the most hilarious thing about cherry picking that one stat is that stat has NO CORRELATION WHATSOEVER in determining above average to elite players when you see how many average role players who put up great TS% over a season or even a career

http://www.basketball-reference.com/lea ... areer.html


TS% is usually higher for low usage role players. But give him a chance to respond to my question.
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Re: Josh Smith and Monta Ellis got screwed! (again...) 

Post#333 » by dice » Sun Feb 12, 2012 11:02 pm

_BBIB_ wrote:He's cherry picking that one stat when Josh Smith has the edge over Luol Deng in every other category

not sure how many times i have to say this, but it's only one factor. deng is marginally better offensively (last two seasons anyway), similar defensively, and similar in terms of rebounding. and deng has the edge in intangibles. had smith gotten in over deng i wouldn't have pitched a fit. but to say he got screwed is ludicrous

ruhiel: bigger players operate closer to the basket and naturally have better efficiency numbers. existence of 3 point shot narrows the gap. leaguewide TS%s by position for guys playing 40+ games and averaging 25+ minutes over the last 5 years:

PG: 54.3%
SG: 55.3%
SF: 55.2%
PF: 55.5%
C: 56.7%

not the difference between wings and PFs that i expected, frankly
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Re: Josh Smith and Monta Ellis got screwed! (again...) 

Post#334 » by Ruhiel » Sun Feb 12, 2012 11:09 pm

dice wrote:
_BBIB_ wrote:He's cherry picking that one stat when Josh Smith has the edge over Luol Deng in every other category

not sure how many times i have to say this, but it's only one factor. deng is marginally better offensively (last two seasons anyway), similar defensively, and similar in terms of rebounding. and deng has the edge in intangibles. had smith gotten in over deng i wouldn't have pitched a fit. but to say he got screwed is ludicrous


You're crazy and/or generalizing. Offensively, you're saying he's better. At what? Show us the #s that say Deng is better playing as the PF, trailing the break, facilitating, posting up.

Similar defensively? Deng can play PF? Or are you generalizing Defensive Points Per posssession.
How is his TS% at the PF?
Still need to see those #s.
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Re: Josh Smith and Monta Ellis got screwed! (again...) 

Post#335 » by dice » Sun Feb 12, 2012 11:27 pm

Ruhiel wrote:
dice wrote:
_BBIB_ wrote:He's cherry picking that one stat when Josh Smith has the edge over Luol Deng in every other category

not sure how many times i have to say this, but it's only one factor. deng is marginally better offensively (last two seasons anyway), similar defensively, and similar in terms of rebounding. and deng has the edge in intangibles. had smith gotten in over deng i wouldn't have pitched a fit. but to say he got screwed is ludicrous


You're crazy and/or generalizing. Offensively, you're saying he's better. At what? Show us the #s that say Deng is better playing as the PF, trailing the break, facilitating, posting up.

Similar defensively? Deng can play PF? Or are you generalizing Defensive Points Per posssession.
How is his TS% at the PF?
Still need to see those #s.

who said anything about deng at PF?

deng has a better TS% than josh smith. that's all i've been saying. josh smith actually hurts his team offensively by taking bad shots, which leave him with a low TS%. it doesn't matter how many points you score if you're not doing it efficiently

see above edited post for the TS% breakdown by position
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Re: Josh Smith and Monta Ellis got screwed! (again...) 

Post#336 » by betta1 » Sun Feb 12, 2012 11:29 pm

dice wrote:deng has a better TS% than josh smith. that's all i've been saying. josh smith actually hurts his team offensively by taking bad shots, which leave him with a low TS%. it doesn't matter how many points you score if you're not doing it efficiently


Again, TS% is based on a completely arbitrary factor of .44 in its formula. Why not .35? .87? Not a measure of much other than bored statisticians.
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Re: Josh Smith and Monta Ellis got screwed! (again...) 

Post#337 » by Rapcity_11 » Sun Feb 12, 2012 11:32 pm

betta1 wrote:
dice wrote:deng has a better TS% than josh smith. that's all i've been saying. josh smith actually hurts his team offensively by taking bad shots, which leave him with a low TS%. it doesn't matter how many points you score if you're not doing it efficiently


Again, TS% is based on a completely arbitrary factor of .44 in its formula. Why not .35? .87? Not a measure of much other than bored statisticians.


I don't think you know what arbitrary means.
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Re: Josh Smith and Monta Ellis got screwed! (again...) 

Post#338 » by Rapcity_11 » Sun Feb 12, 2012 11:36 pm

mysticbb wrote:
betta1 wrote:Look, I like Deng as a player. But all but some Bulls fans know he's a complementary/role player.


Deng is a complementary player on offense, no doubt about that. He is much better working off the ball than doing something with the ball. BUT Deng was NOT selected as All-Star due to his great offensive game, he is an All-Star, because he is freaking awesome on the defensive end. When Deng is on the court, the Bulls have a 90.2 DRtg, when he is not on the court it goes up to 98.9, and that's while playing 38 minutes per game. His defensive RAPM right now is +4.3 (adjusted for teammates and strength of opponents), that is the best value in the whole league. Deng makes a bigger impact on defense alone than Josh Smith makes overall, and Smith is no slouch either.

I don't know any player in the league who makes less mistakes per possessions than Deng on the defensive end. He is the defensive anchor of the Bulls, he is the reason why the Bulls defense is the best in the league. I know, it is hard to accept, especially when we talk about things happen off the ball, things like correct rotations, timely at double teams, reacting correctly to help out in time, those are minor things to the majority of the so-called basketball fans, but those are the things Deng can do better than pretty much everyone else in the league while playing 38 minutes. Most players losing concentration during a possession or during the game in certain stints on defense, Deng not so much.

So, overall Smith might deserve a All-Star spot, but not the one Deng got. Sorry!


Everyone should actually read this post.

It's ridiculous how posters are trying to turn Deng vs. Smith into a box-score debate. Obviously Smith is going to win that. Deng is not an all-star because of his individual stats.

Also, looking at 07-11 RAPM both guys measure out really well. Especially Smith defensively.
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Re: Josh Smith and Monta Ellis got screwed! (again...) 

Post#339 » by betta1 » Sun Feb 12, 2012 11:36 pm

Rapcity_11 wrote:
betta1 wrote:
dice wrote:deng has a better TS% than josh smith. that's all i've been saying. josh smith actually hurts his team offensively by taking bad shots, which leave him with a low TS%. it doesn't matter how many points you score if you're not doing it efficiently


Again, TS% is based on a completely arbitrary factor of .44 in its formula. Why not .35? .87? Not a measure of much other than bored statisticians.


I don't think you know what arbitrary means.


You're right, I don't.

Now, how about you respond with something other than bland attempts to insult and explain to all of us the magic behind the (rational, is it?) .44 factor in computing TS%?

We'll wait right over here for your enlightening response.
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Re: Josh Smith and Monta Ellis got screwed! (again...) 

Post#340 » by dice » Sun Feb 12, 2012 11:38 pm

betta1 wrote:
dice wrote:deng has a better TS% than josh smith. that's all i've been saying. josh smith actually hurts his team offensively by taking bad shots, which leave him with a low TS%. it doesn't matter how many points you score if you're not doing it efficiently


Again, TS% is based on a completely arbitrary factor of .44 in its formula. Why not .35? .87? Not a measure of much other than bored statisticians.

you don't know what you're talking about. it's an exact formula. FTs are the equivalent of approximately half a field goal attempt. altered slightly from .50 due to 3 point plays

TS% is no more "made up" than FG%. TS% just tells a bigger story. PER is a "made up" statistic that is dependent on an individual interpretation of which statistics should be weighted more than others
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