Jonas Valanciunas 11/12 Season Thread II

[Serious_P]

Valanciunas looking great in that game. Nice footwork, alright pump fake moves, nice finishes, good rebounding, and good help D. Another think I like about him that i took from the highlights of that game he looks tough like he wants to fight the other team he pushing them in their face talking to them that gritty player ala garnett.

[onions17]

I hope he comes over and plays aggressively in the NBA as he does in Europe. I hope he doesn't respect the players here too much

[dagger]

It's going to be very interesting to see how he looks defensively/how long he can stay on the floor as a rookie in Casey's system. I'm going to guess that Casey will encourage him to play hard every minute and not worry about fouls (get the rebounder/shotblocker/finisher role card). guys are going to go right at him so it's going to be a good test of his man D, day in and day out.

AB able to hold his position pretty well after a couple of seasons. could JV come in and play like a veteran big (defensively) from day 1?

The fact that there is a Casey system and not a free for all on D works to Jonas' advantage, as well as the fact he plays straight up in protecting the rim, so he's a nice complement for a help D shotblocker. If we lucked out and drafted Anthony Davis, they'd both have to grow for a couple of years but eventually would drive opponents crazy with their blocking styles.

Offensively, Jonas has a post game, face up game, is a tremendous offensive rebounder, good FT shooter, nice passer, needs works on his screens but his first step on pick and roll is exceptional.

So yes, I can see him playing 25 mpg as a rookie. I think about 8/8 is a reasonable first year goal assuming others are there to carry the bulk of the offensive load.

[mihaic]

dagger, skillwise he would be our starting center by default right now. The question is would he manage his fouls, while learning the NBA more athletic play, and without decreasing the quality of his play? This is something we need to wait for, sometimes some euro players get it right away (Gasols?) sometimes they take ages (Andrea?) or don't pan at all (too many examples)

I am most definitely excited to see his rookie season, probably more excited than when Bargnani joined the Raps.

BTW can somebody dig up some stats of Sabonis in Lithuania at Jonas's age, and before coming into the NBA? I know people wrongly compare them, as their styles are supposed to be nothing alike, but I would not mind seeing their numbers difference just for fun...

[Laowai]

The fact that there is a Casey system and not a free for all on D works to Jonas' advantage, as well as the fact he plays straight up in protecting the rim, so he's a nice complement for a help D shotblocker. If we lucked out and drafted Anthony Davis, they'd both have to grow for a couple of years but eventually would drive opponents crazy with their blocking styles.

Offensively, Jonas has a post game, face up game, is a tremendous offensive rebounder, good FT shooter, nice passer, needs works on his screens but his first step on pick and roll is exceptional.

So yes, I can see him playing 25 mpg as a rookie. I think about 8/8 is a reasonable first year goal assuming others are there to carry the bulk of the offensive load.[/quote]

I think the major point where we disagree is on the offensive end if you look a E. Davis last year and I think you must admit that JV is a better player. Davis averaged 7.7PPG, 7.1 RPG, 1BPG, in aboit 25 minutes. While I agree JV isn't fully physically developed he is eons ahead of ED in physical development. With Bargs at Pf he will get fed 1 or 2 easy baskets a game will get 1 basket from offensive rebounding, a least 2 ppg from the free throw line, and a couple baskets from set plays. He is definitely a better re bounder than Davis so for me 12PPG , 10RPG and 2 blocks per game are realistic.

[dagger]

dagger, skillwise he would be our starting center by default right now. The question is would he manage his fouls, while learning the NBA more athletic play, and without decreasing the quality of his play? This is something we need to wait for, sometimes some euro players get it right away (Gasols?) sometimes they take ages (Andrea?) or don't pan at all (too many examples)

I am most definitely excited to see his rookie season, probably more excited than when Bargnani joined the Raps.

BTW can somebody dig up some stats of Sabonis in Lithuania at Jonas's age, and before coming into the NBA? I know people wrongly compare them, as their styles are supposed to be nothing alike, but I would not mind seeing their numbers difference just for fun...

I put him down for 25 mpg precisely because of fouls, and the rookie wall. He really has to watch Gray and Magloire - one of whom might be back next season - set picks. He better not watch Amir set picks. At least I haven't seen him do any of Amir's stupid perimeter reach-in fouls, but he did barrel over a defender after making a pass today in James Johnson style, so he'll likely do some of that.

I'd say Valanciunas will do better if Jose is our point guard, although that isn't enough for me to want to keep Jose. Most of our guys, Bayless included, can't even make a simple entry pass (which is why Andrea may have to do that, he's the only guy outside of Jose who can do it.)

[dagger]

He is definitely a better re bounder than Davis so for me 12PPG , 10RPG and 2 blocks per game are realistic.

My suspicion is that he won't do that well, not because he doesn't have the potential, but you really need to play 35 mpg in the NBA to average those kinds of numbers, and for all the leagues Rytas plays in, Valanciunas has never had a diet of minutes like 35 x 82 regular season games. That's really hard on rookies.

To average 10 RPG, which very few players in NBA do, you can't have many 5 rebound games, unless of course to are having a lot of 15 rebound games to balance that out. That's too much for a rookie. There are only 11 players in the league averaging 10 rebounds or more, and all of them except DeMarcus Cousins are playing at least 30 minutes per game and some are over 35.

[Alfred]

His pump fake and drive looks so predictable (Still not as laughably bad as Bargs), but its still deadly going 1 on 1.

It just needs to fool centers/power forwards in order for it to be effective. Bargnani's pump fake/drive has been fooling defenders for years, somehow. It's probably because he has very unorthodox footwork, and a quick release.

[Laowai]

Agreed I'm on the fence with both Bayless and Jose and I think Bargs can be a very good Point Forward he should be averaging another 1.5 to 2 APG if his team-mates could finish which JV can.

The team will look very different next year decisions need to be made on Amnesty for Jose?
Which of these players fit Bayless, E. Davis, Amir Forbes,, J.J, and Klieza and what is there trade value?
Will the Raptors look at resigning Weems?
See Gray resigned as you do.
Barbossa is expiring but if he could be signed at 4 to 5 million for 2 years would that be considered?
DD is likely a piece that will be kept.
2012 1st pick who & where?
2012 2nd rounder who or where?

If Jose is Amnestied then options for free agents are numerous
Lin if he keeps up his play
Veteran PG Miller, Kidd,
Mid teir Dragic, Augustine

Will be interesting summer.

[Bank Shot]

Man, he looks good. Not that he's amazing at anything right now, but he's got a real nice all-round game for a 19 year old.

[arbsn]

Other C's first year stats:

Roy Hibbert (22yrs) - 14mpg 7ppg 3.5rpg 1bpg
Tyson Chandler (20yrs) - 20mpg 6ppg 5rpg 1bpg
Joakim Noah (23yrs) - 20mpg 6.6ppg 5.6rpg 1bpg
Pau Gasol (22yrs) - 37mpg 17ppg 9rpg 2bpg
Dwight Howard (20yrs) - 33mpg 12ppg 10rpg 2bpg


For arguments sake, say Jonas is the average of all these players

Jonas Valaciunas (20yrs) - 25mpg 9.7ppg 7rpg 1.5bpg

I think this is a fair, calculated estimate of Jonas's stats next season

[Regulio]

BTW can somebody dig up some stats of Sabonis in Lithuania at Jonas's age, and before coming into the NBA? I know people wrongly compare them, as their styles are supposed to be nothing alike, but I would not mind seeing their numbers difference just for fun...

here are the stats of Sabonis in Eurobasket
http://turkey2010.fiba.com/pages/eng/fa ... index.html

he was a beast @ age 20. no stats for RPG/APG though, but he had a much more polished game by that age than Jonas.
here is Sabas statline when he was a bit older in 1984 - 22.3 PPG, 14.5 RPG, 4.0 BPG playing for Zalgiris. He was already elected the best Euro player @ age 21
So I think we should not compare them at all. Jonas will take time to develop and has much less natural talent, but he may be a very good C still.

[Darkseid]

SAVE US JONAS, SAVE OUR CRAPPY TEAM

[lothy]

Guys, would you get disappointed if Jonas decided to stay in Europe for one more year? I am asking this because Donatas Motiejunas coach said that Demo is staying in Europe for next season. I assume Rockets fans are pretty mad since a lot of them thought that he could contribute right away (even this season).

[Alfred]

Guys, would you get disappointed if Jonas decided to stay in Europe for one more year? I am asking this because Donatas Motiejunas coach said that Demo is staying in Europe for next season. I assume Rockets fans are pretty mad since a lot of them thought that he could contribute right away (even this season).

Yes, extremely disappointed.

[dagger]

Guys, would you get disappointed if Jonas decided to stay in Europe for one more year? I am asking this because Donatas Motiejunas coach said that Demo is staying in Europe for next season. I assume Rockets fans are pretty mad since a lot of them thought that he could contribute right away (even this season).

First of all like college players and their draft intentions, you don't take those kinds of statements about staying in Europe seriously until after the season, and you listen to what the player says, not his coach.

Secondly, Montijunas can probably make as much money staying in Europe rather than paying a buyout to come to the NBA, but in Jonas' case, even after paying his buyout, he comes out way ahead financially because the first year salary for his draft slot is $2.8 million plus an optional 20% gross up (to $3.4 million) which is always given, increasing by 5% annually in the second and third years, then by 27% for year 4. That's way more than his contract at Rytas, which I have heard is only five figures.

Secondly, Rytas ownership and the Lithuanian federation want and expect the buyout to go through. Rytas needs the money (over $2 million they get up front), which it can use to find a quality veteran replacement for Jonas and upgrade another position, while the Lithuanian Fed wants him in the best basketball league in the world because they expect him to represent Lithuania in major European and world competitions and they want him to become the best big man possible.

Third, the Raptors are being very hands on, sending people over to meet not only with Jonas but his coach, Rytas ownership and the Federation, so we're not letting anyone think we are disinterested in his coming over.

Fourth, while we crave a C, Houston has power forwards coming out the yin yang (Scola, Patterson) and unless Montiejunas wants to be a C, and he certainly doesn't play the position or play like one (his two made baskets yesterday were three pointers), he may feel that going to Houston will get him a seat on the bench.

[xprt]

With Motiejunas its different situation he is picked only 20th - expectations are lower. His team is stacked of PF's. He knows he won't get a lot of playing time in rockets. In Europe he is leader of Euroleague team a lot of playing time, good salary ( I would expect). Also he isnt ready he plans to play in the post long run like Pau does so he needs to get stronger.
On other hand Jonas will get great chance with Raptors because they lack good C. Also his salary is low so he is loosing potential money staying in Europe.

[dagger]

Like I said, don't pay attention to the coach, listen to the player. While Montiejunas hasnt declared his intentions, there is a difference of opinion among others as to what he will do. This is hot off the press.

http://www.lithuaniabasketball.com/news ... eason.html

[theSkinny]

Who the hell still uses presses?

[dagger]

Who the hell still uses presses?

What have you got against garlic?