Official Randy Wittman Appreciation Thread

[nate33]

So far, Randy Wittman is getting it done. The team was 2-15 when he took over and he's coached them to a 5-7 record since. Granted, some of those wins were against cupcake teams (2 against Charlotte, one at home against Toronto) but he's also had several nice wins including a home win against OKC, and two blowout road wins (@Detroit and @Portland).

I figured Wittman deserved his own thread.

[nate33]

Here are the differences under the two coaches:

Code: Select all

STAT    Flip    Witt
Pace    93.3    92.9
ortg    94.5    104.2
drtg    105.3   109.3
efg     .437    .485
defg    .495    .493
orb%    .258    .291
drb%    .710    .671
tov%    .163    .156
dtov    .165    .161
ft/fga  .185    .215
dft/fga .197    .254


So, pace is about the same. The offense has been MUCH better, while the defense has been significantly worse. But, under Wittman, the offensive improvement has been about twice as big as the defensive decline, so the team is doing better on balance. The rest of the numbers are the 4 factors offense and defense.

Wiz shooting better and doing a little better on the offensive glass. Significantly worse on the defensive boards, and they're fouling more.

[Rafael122]

Even if in losses, it's still entertaining to watch them. I couldn't say that under Flip. Wittman is basically letting the kids play. I still wouldn't hire him long term though, but for now, this is fine. Flip's refusal to play the young guys irritated me.

[nate33]

From Nivek's numbers, you can see that Whitman has the team playing more to their strengths. The team under Flip was trying to play a more methodical, disciplined game with more perimeter shots, better defensive rebounding fewer offensive boards, and less free throw attempts. The team under Wittman is what you would expect out of an athletic, albeit inexperienced team. There are more offensive boards and more free throw attempts, but sloppier D and defensive boardwork. I suppose much of this is simply a matter of Vesely taking many of Blatche's minutes.

The best sign is the FTA/FGA ratio. If that continues, it'll dramatically help our offensive efficiency while making it easier to play defense. I'm worried about that same stat on the other end of the floor. Vesely needs to stop fouling so much.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

We can debate whether players improve or if coaching makes a difference, or we can simply enjoy the difference in how the Wizards are playing now for Wittman.

The past couple games the Wizards have really been dialed in against Detroit and Portland.

If they go to LAC and keep this up I think they have turned a corner and are legitimately improved.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Even if in losses, it's still entertaining to watch them. I couldn't say that under Flip. Wittman is basically letting the kids play. I still wouldn't hire him long term though, but for now, this is fine. Flip's refusal to play the young guys irritated me.

Flip seemed to overreact to mistakes and he kept players in his doghouse. Nothing was on him.

Wittman already showed a lighter approach. When Lin had a big game against Washington, Wittman jokingly mentioned his son's comment that his college team defended Lin better. In defeat Randy doesn't lose it. Washington has gotten beat down at least 3 or 4 times under Wittman, but the vibe has stayed good. Nobody has been called out, either.

[closg00]

Witt had a lot of time to observe what Flip was doing wrong, so he was ready to make adjustments from day-1. Witt has been a refreshing change.

Now about his coffe-teeth

[closg00]

YES CCJ, most important change? NOT throwing players under the bus in the media.

[McGully Culkin]

I think Flip was coaching when we got the win vs. OKC.

Doesn't matter tho...Wittman is getting the most out of these guys and they are responding. I love the fact that he's playing no favorites and isn't afraid to hold guys accountable.

If he can sustain basketball that is close to a .400 win %, does Ted entertain the thought of retaining him going forward?

[no D in Hibachi]

I wouldn't put too much stock in this yet. I mean Washington did just have their best shooting night in years. Crawford was throwing up the same garbage he always does, but for some reason it went in. I don't expect that to continue. Also, this has just as much to do with Blatche being out as it does with Whitman being in. The sample size is small enough that last night's games are skewing the population. Let's talk in a month or so when the sample size is a bit bigger.

[fishercob]

1. It's "Wittman."

2. Glad to see the team playing better. I expect them to come down to earth. They're still not very good. Before long, the same people will be complaining about his rotations, minute distributions, playbook, philosophy, coffee teeth, etc.

[Ed Wood]

An emphasis on offense at the expense of defense? A similar emphasis on offensive rebounding? A very light hand on the tiller and ability to maintain equanimity in the face of defeat? I'm getting the strangest sense of déjà vu.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

If Wittman puts Booker at C then things will start looking pretty suspicious, Ed.

If he says, "Protect the paint" while going with a very small lineup, then we will know for sure something is up.

[Nivek]

Looking at the shot location info at hoopdata, there are some interesting differences that are almost certainly because of the coaching change. Here are FGA per 48 minutes by shot distance:

Code: Select all

DIST    FLIP    WITT
RIM     26.3    28.8
3-9     10.7    12.1
10-15   7.8     6.6
16-23   24.0    20.8
Threes  14.0    15.0


Under Wittman, there are more attempts coming at the rim and in the paint (3-9 feet), and from three (only 1 attempt per 48 minutes, but still), and substantially fewer of the sucker shots from mid-range and long 2pt range.

The other big difference: the team is shooting jumpers more accurately.

Code: Select all

DIST    FLIP    WITT
RIM     .633    .622
3-9     .335    .336
10-15   .271    .325
16-23   .333    .381
Threes  .286    .335


At the rim and in the paint, conversion rates haven't changed. But, from 10 feet and out, the shooting has improved. That improvement doesn't go away even if you throw out last night's game. Maybe it's the simplified stuff Wittman is running. Maybe it's the players finally breaking out of a nasty cold streak. Maybe it's not having Blatche around to stop the ball and jack up one of those soul-crushing fadeaway one-leggers.

Also, just caught an big error in those four factor numbers I posted earlier. I had 2 games that were under Wittman "credited" to Flip. I'll repost corrected numbers in a minute.

[nate33]

Looking at the shot location info at hoopdata, there are some interesting differences that are almost certainly because of the coaching change. Here are FGA per 48 minutes by shot distance:

Code: Select all

DIST    FLIP    WITT
RIM     26.3    28.8
3-9     10.7    12.1
10-15   7.8     6.6
16-23   24.0    20.8
Threes  14.0    15.0


Wow! Those are telling statistics.

[tontoz]

I think Blatche being out definitely shows in those stats. He loves shooting long 2s.

[Nivek]

All right -- the REAL numbers showing changes to the team under Wittman. These have been triple-double-checked.

Code: Select all

STAT    FLIP    WITT
pace    92.9    93.5
ortg    95.4    101.3
drtg    106.9   106.4
efg     .439    .475
defg    .505    .479
orb%    .249    .299
drb%    .716    .671
tov%    .154    .170
dtov%   .163    .164
ft/fga  .192    .185
dft/fga .212    .251



So, with the corrected numbers we see that the offense has indeed gotten significantly better. The defense is about the same overall, BUT they're actually a bit better in the most important defensive stat (opponent efg).

Defensive rebounding is worse, but that's something to worry about later. First force the miss, THEN worry about getting the rebound.

Under Wittman, they're fouling a lot more. That might relate to the lower opponent efg -- maybe doing a better job of defending the middle? Something to look at later maybe.

Turnovers are up. No real change in their ability to get to the line.

[Nivek]

I think Blatche being out definitely shows in those stats. He loves shooting long 2s.

I think so too. Blatche was 2nd on the team in long 2s (16-23 feet) at 6.6 per 40 minutes. (Young is 1st in this category with 7.7 per 40). Blatche's minutes have been taken by some combination of Booker, Lewis and Vesely -- 2.4, 2.3 and 0.6 long 2s per 40 minutes respectively.

One more way to look at it. Blatche this season has 4.7 FGA per game from 16-23 feet. Lewis, Booker, Singleton and Vesely COMBINED have 4.0.

[nate33]

All right -- the REAL numbers showing changes to the team under Wittman. These have been triple-double-checked.

Code: Select all

STAT    FLIP    WITT
pace    92.9    93.5
ortg    95.4    101.3
drtg    106.9   106.4
efg     .439    .475
defg    .505    .479
orb%    .249    .299
drb%    .716    .671
tov%    .154    .170
dtov%   .163    .164
ft/fga  .192    .185
dft/fga .212    .251



Yeah, that makes more sense. I was shocked to see in your original post that the pace had gotten slower under Wittman. Now I see that's not the case.

We can still see a trend toward Witt embracing the athleticism of this team, even if it means a loss in the "discipline stats" like defensive rebounding and turnover rate.

[Nivek]

Just looked at schedule under Flip vs. schedule under Wittman. And, the Wiz have benefited by having weaker opponents lately.

Code: Select all

Sched   W       L       W%
Flip    276     212     .566
Witt    159     190     .456


Here's another look using offensive and defensive ratings:

Code: Select all

Coach   ortg    drtg    Pyt82
Flip    103.9   100.6   50.0
Witt    101.7   103.5   36.2


League average efficiency is 102.9. On average, the Wiz faced a 50-win team when Flip was coaching and a 36-win team when Wittman has been coaching.