2012 NBA Draft

[pancakes3]

That's overkill, and an expensive one at that. There are only 96 frontcourt minutes to dole out. You limit guys to sub-30 mpg and nobody's happy - not even an asthmatic McGee. If we get Ry-guy, the move should be to trade down in the draft with the hornets, take MKG and a late lottery guy - I personally would take Beal if he's falling, Patric Young, or Jeremy Lamb.

[llcc25]

Why does it matter who has the better rookie year? Are we likely going to be championship contenders next season? We need to take the guy we think has the most upside and who's most likely to reach it. If Davis is available, you take him without looking back. He has a high ceiling, but a high floor also.

IMO, its not just rookie year. Its year 2 and 3 and possibly more if Davis doesn't reach his ceiling as some are projecting. I believe Sullinger can come in and give us early Brand type production in his first couple of years 20/10. Maybe I"m wrong, but that's my projection based on everything I"ve looked at.

But again, let me just say for the record, any team that lands #1 pick should take Davis. But if there is any truth to Calipari's comparison of Davis to Camby and scouts not being sold that he is in same franchise changing class as Rose and Duncan, I just think its worth contemplating if he would be the best fit for this team to begin with. So that's why I'm ok with us missing on the 1st pick. Although having it would give us so many more options in terms of maybe gettinga aonther first or valuable starter...

[Ruzious]

Dat2u, i don't think my take on Davis needing couple of years to develop his body and offensive skill set is off base. I think we need to remember that he is still a freshman and guys like Camby and Mourning who were more polished came into the league after their senior year. So I was just being realistic in trying to point out that Davis's impact, particularly on the offensive side of the ball wouldn't be felt for a couple years.

And I never said he wasnt' an elite prospect. Again, I believe he has potential to be an all star, but I don't see him in the same group as a Tim Duncan or Derrick Rose franchise changer. According to Ford, many scouts have that same opinion. And I know scouts are wrong many times, especially given how many missed on their evaluation of Lin, so thats why I never put too much weight that in developing my opinion. I will, however, put alot of my assessment on what I see with my own eyes and with what his coaches have to say. And although you might not agree with the Camby comparison, if that is the comparison Calipari uses, I'm gonna have to side with the coach that has coached both of these guys to what you might see on TV or stats. I agree with all the scouting reports that say his impact will be immediately felt on defensive end. And I agree he should be drafted #1. I'm just not in the camp that believes he is the all word franchise talent that some make him out to be. So IMO, missing out on him wouldn't be a great loss for us. In fact, I would argue like I always have, that a more polished nba ready PF stud like Sullinger, would translate to more victories immediately especially alongside Center like McGee if we end up keeping him. I believe we have our franchise game changer in Wall and going into his pivotal 3rd year next year, I'm of the opinion that they really need to start adding pieces that can play immediately as opposed to adding guys that project out to making contribitions couple years down the road.

Remember, Davis is already the college POY. Some say Robinson is in the conversation, but it's clearly Davis and not even close, imo. And he's played against big bulky players - he pretty much destroyed Patric Young (6'9 and a chiselled 250 lbs - physically a clone of Robinson) of Florida. While I concur that he won't dominate as a rookie, he's going to be very good - as a rookie - and he is more of a sure thing - imo - than Mourning was coming out of G-town.

[llcc25]

Remember, Davis is already the college POY. Some say Robinson is in the conversation, but it's clearly Davis and not even close, imo. And he's played against big bulky players - he pretty much destroyed Patric Young (6'9 and a chiselled 250 lbs - physically a clone of Robinson) of Florida. While I concur that he won't dominate as a rookie, he's going to be very good - as a rookie - and he is more of a sure thing - imo - than Mourning was coming out of G-town.

Wasn't Jimmer Fredette and Tyler Hansborough college POY also? I think award is nice but I don't personally put too much weight on that as being any great indicator of future sucess in nba. And playing against big bulky players in college is nothing compared to playing nba quality bigs. He will get pushed around by the much stronger nba bigs early on but again in a few years, with strenght added, he should be ok i think. Look at Javale, he is in his 4th year and he's still getting physically dominated by Howard. So I just think it will take time. And more of a sure thing than Mourning? that is a bold statement and I don't concur. I believe he is closer along the scale to Camby than he is to the Mouring level...

[nate33]

llcc25, stop comparing Davis to Camby.

Camby averaged 10 points, 6 boards and 3 blocks with a TS% around 51% during his freshman year at the age of 19. Davis is leading the league in PER while playing some of the best D we've seen in a generation. He is averaging 14 points, 9.9 boards and 4.9 blocks with a TS% .670. And he's 18.

[Illuminaire]

Tyler was much older and basically at his ceiling. Jimmer was a guy everyone knew would have size/athleticism problems at the next level.

llcc, you seem to be really reaching for reasons to not like Davis.

[Rafael122]

So Drummond has a per over 20, great, the problem I see is his demeanor and or lack thereof. He's got no heart. Kid is talented for sure, but I wouldn't trust him, I wouldn't. You had coaches/teammates barking at him b/c he essentially quit in that one game a couple of weeks back. Last thing the Wizards need to do is babysit another player.

[The Consiglieri]

Why does it matter who has the better rookie year? Are we likely going to be championship contenders next season? We need to take the guy we think has the most upside and who's most likely to reach it. If Davis is available, you take him without looking back. He has a high ceiling, but a high floor also.

It doesn't, i've never understood his take, i respect how nuanced his argument is, but i think the premise is faulty. This team is considered a dumpster fire league wide, it has a horrific reputation, we are not going to be adding difference maker free agents until we do what the clippers have done, and have youth that inspires confidence and deflects the stink floating around this franchise's metaphorical corpse. The only way you do that is what the grantland article and hell most of us have suggested, eject the cancerous deadwood, and inject youthful attractive pieces since we aren't going to be able (or willing i pray) to pay top dollar for not franchise players or even franchise guys. Once we have an attractive piece or two added this summer, then we make our play either in the '13 window, or after the '13 draft. This team is cratering now, not in '09, we blew the '09 draft so the rebuild was delayed. Quick fixing this is a guarantee of even worse results than the '04-'07 era and the '96-'98 and '86-'88 periods, because we wont be able to get players capable of changing the culture enough to become relevant, we'll only get guys that dont care about winning, so they're coming here to cash in. To get guys that care about winning we need to add the pieces to entice them and that WONT HAPPEN VIA FREE AGENCY, and it sure as hell aint happening by forcing a low ceiling and low floor pick. Sully over Davis would be beyond idiotic. I have no problem with being stuck with Sully at the 5-8 area if thats are fate, but if we're picking higher earlier we need to add culture changing pieces to help the rebuild.

A quick fix is a recipe for a disaster even worse than what we're already seeing. Be patient. This will never be built unless the team does this the right way, jettisoning the cancers, eating another contract if necessary for an extra pick, and utilizing this draft and the '13 draft and a little luck to build a contender by the end of '13-'14.

[llcc25]

llcc25, stop comparing Davis to Camby.

Camby averaged 10 points, 6 boards and 3 blocks with a TS% around 51% during his freshman year at the age of 19. Davis is leading the league in PER while playing some of the best D we've seen in a generation. He is averaging 14 points, 9.9 boards and 4.9 blocks with a TS% .670. And he's 18.

First off, I'm not the only one comparing Davis to Camby. Calipari, who coached both players made that comparison as well as his assistant at UMASS. Add in Jay Bilas and Vitale as well. And second, all of them concurred that Davis was an advanced Camby so of course Davis's freshman stats are going to be better than Camby as a freshman. I'm not disputing that. Watching him, I just feel his game is going to be more similar to Camby than other bigs who've come out with similar accolades (Howard, Duncan, or Garnett). And that's not a knock on Davis to say he's a Camby w/more upside. I think that will equate to Davis being an all-star. But I don't see that as soon as you see it. And I just don't think i'd put him in the franchise hall of fame type category thats all.

[Illuminaire]

A player who's a better defender than Camby AND has more offensive upside...

....is about as good as you could ever hope to draft.

[Ruzious]

Remember, Davis is already the college POY. Some say Robinson is in the conversation, but it's clearly Davis and not even close, imo. And he's played against big bulky players - he pretty much destroyed Patric Young (6'9 and a chiselled 250 lbs - physically a clone of Robinson) of Florida. While I concur that he won't dominate as a rookie, he's going to be very good - as a rookie - and he is more of a sure thing - imo - than Mourning was coming out of G-town.

Wasn't Jimmer Fredette and Tyler Hansborough college POY also? I think award is nice but I don't personally put too much weight on that as being any great indicator of future sucess in nba. And playing against big bulky players in college is nothing compared to playing nba quality bigs. He will get pushed around by the much stronger nba bigs early on but again in a few years, with strenght added, he should be ok i think. Look at Javale, he is in his 4th year and he's still getting physically dominated by Howard. So I just think it will take time. And more of a sure thing than Mourning? that is a bold statement and I don't concur. I believe he is closer along the scale to Camby than he is to the Mouring level...

As seniors - not as freshmen. There's a world of difference.

He's definitely more of a sure thing than Mourning when he came out. Mourning wasn't a freshman when he came out, and he still had a limited offensive game in college. It wasn't until he was in the NBA that he learned to shoot an open jump shot and showed the ability to deal with double-teams.

[llcc25]

Why does it matter who has the better rookie year? Are we likely going to be championship contenders next season? We need to take the guy we think has the most upside and who's most likely to reach it. If Davis is available, you take him without looking back. He has a high ceiling, but a high floor also.

Quick fixing this is a guarantee of even worse results than the '04-'07 era and the '96-'98 and '86-'88 periods, because we wont be able to get players capable of changing the culture enough to become relevant, we'll only get guys that dont care about winning, so they're coming here to cash in. To get guys that care about winning we need to add the pieces to entice them and that WONT HAPPEN VIA FREE AGENCY, and it sure as hell aint happening by forcing a low ceiling and low floor pick. Sully over Davis would be beyond idiotic. I have no problem with being stuck with Sully at the 5-8 area if thats are fate, but if we're picking higher earlier we need to add culture changing pieces to help the rebuild.

A quick fix is a recipe for a disaster even worse than what we're already seeing. Be patient. This will never be built unless the team does this the right way, jettisoning the cancers, eating another contract if necessary for an extra pick, and utilizing this draft and the '13 draft and a little luck to build a contender by the end of '13-'14.

FIrst off, let's be clear. I've never advocated taking Sullinger with the #1 pick over Davis. My position all along if you've read all my posts on this subject has been to take Davis #1, but then "consider" trading down for Sully and another valuable piece if it was made available. IMO, Sully and another valuable piece(e.g., another #1) plus some key FA's this year would put us in the playoffs. I don't know how this approach would be taking a "quick fix" approach to building this team. If I was convinced that Sullinger was more Sweetney than Brand, then I could understnad. But everything about him, from the most polished low post game of any big man coming out, to his his intangibles, make me convinced that he is a more surefire pick to hit thte ground runnign for us as opposed to waiting a few years for Davis to develop an nba body and offense. And looking at the current makeup of our team, I just think he best fits the bill of what we truly need...

[Ruzious]

So Drummond has a per over 20, great, the problem I see is his demeanor and or lack thereof. He's got no heart. Kid is talented for sure, but I wouldn't trust him, I wouldn't. You had coaches/teammates barking at him b/c he essentially quit in that one game a couple of weeks back. Last thing the Wizards need to do is babysit another player.

There's over-analysis of Drummond. He's still the second best prospect in the draft, imo. He's not super-intense, but I really don't see the uber negatives in his attitude that others apparently see. This is definitely not a Cousins type situation, for example. In general, it seems he's a good quiet kid, is unselfish, is really good on the break, has great defensive potential, and has skills that can be developed on offense. It'll take some time, but as long as he's in a decent situation in the NBA with an uselfish PG, he'll be fine.

Sleeper time - that's the most fun part of the draft - finding a player who hasn't been talked about a lot but will someday be a star. Has anyone mentioned Tony Mitchell from North Texas in the Sun Belt (not the Tony Mitchell on Alabama)? My apologies if someone has. He's like a poor man's Anthony Davis. He missed last season due to academic reasons, but he's still a 19 year old freshman. See his stats http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/basketball/players/110025 great rebounding/blocks/steals/shooting % numbers. He was also the top per minute rebounder in the entire Nike international Under 18 Tournament 2 years ago - which included Jonas V. Listed at 6'8 220 - the question is - How big is he going to be, and how long is he. Also notice - he's hit some 3's - at a good percentage. So, if he grows just an inch or so and fills out - this kid could shoot way up.

[Severn Hoos]

He's definitely more of a sure thing than Mourning when he came out. Mourning wasn't a freshman when he came out, and he still had a limited offensive game in college. It wasn't until he was in the NBA that he learned to shoot an open jump shot and showed the ability to deal with double-teams.

Wow, Ruz - that's a bold statement, but I don't think I can go there with you. In fact, I'm not entirely convinced that he's more of a sure thing than Zo was after his Freshman year.

As a Freshman, Zo blocked 169 shots - exactly 5 per game, and also exactly the same as Davis. (And Davis plays a few extra minutes per game, so per minute blocks goes to Zo.) Zo shot .603 FG% as a Freshman - not at Davis' .651, but also nothing to sneeze at. Davis shoots .706 FT%, Zo's Freshman FT% was not very good (.667), but he was up to nearly 80% for the rest of his college career. Rebounding is tough - Davis leads in both absolute and per minute terms compared to Zo's 1st year, although Z was well ahead by his Senior year (10.7 per game). Don't have advanced stats like PER and DReb%, so tough to compare beyond the glamour stats.

But by the time Zo was a Senior, virtually all of his stats (though not FG/EFG) eclipsed where Davis is now. More to the point, by then he had been doing it for 4 years, consistently. And - he had done it in a different era, when there were very few 1-and-dones. He went up against other players who were, on average, more mature - closer to 21 than to 18. It would be interesting to see how Davis would look if Kanter, DWill, Derrick Favors, DeMarcus Cousins were all in the NCAAs. Would Davis still look like the runaway player of the year?

None of this is to knock Davis. I think he is far and away the #1 player in college, and the absolute no-brainer #1 pick. He is probably the best big man prospect to come out since.... yeah, maybe Duncan. But those historical standards are pretty high - not sure I'm ready to put him up there just yet.

[no D in Hibachi]

A player who's a better defender than Camby AND has more offensive upside...

....is about as good as you could ever hope to draft.

Keep in mind, Camby made exactly ZERO all-star games during his career and even though he won several DPOY awards in Denver their defense actually was substantially better AFTER he left. A better version of Camby isn't really a budding HOF type player.

[no D in Hibachi]

None of this is to knock Davis. I think he is far and away the #1 player in college, and the absolute no-brainer #1 pick. He is probably the best big man prospect to come out since.... yeah, maybe Duncan. But those historical standards are pretty high - not sure I'm ready to put him up there just yet.

If Anthony Davis was in the 2007 draft he'd be the 3rd player selected. Oden was by far been the best big man prospect to come out of college over the last decade. I don't think it's even close. Oden's and Davis' freshman stats are identical, but Oden played the whole season without his dominate hand. Plus Oden had one of the best cominations of height/strength/athletism in history. It truly is a shame we never got to enjoy him play.

[Mr. Grundle]

Drummond is considered a good prospect because he is big, strong, and athletic. However, as we learned with Kwame, that makes no difference if you're not good at basketball. And this kid ain't good. Watch him play. If we drafted him he would be the most hated player yet. He's like a combination of all the things we hate about Kwame and McGee. Like Kwame, he's huge and jacked, but doesn't use it to his advantage. He's passive, doesn't seem to want the ball. Doesn't exert his will when he could be dominating based off his physical gifts. Like McGee, he's utterly clueless on offense and defense. He's a ball watcher, does not seem to know where he should be, does not fight for rebounding position....he seems to just drift aimlessly.

It's obvious when watching this kid he does not have the mental makeup to be a force at the next level. Maybe he can learn, but I doubt it...I think its just how he's wired. I'm calling epic bust right now.

[Jazzfan12]

While Drummond's stats are okay, defenses don't guard him very much. On the majority of his points, he's wide-open. This is majorly negatively effectively UConn's offense as few of their guards can get open due to the lack of defensive attention on Drummond.

[7-Day Dray]

While Drummond's stats are okay, defenses don't guard him very much. On the majority of his points, he's wide-open. This is majorly negatively effectively UConn's offense as few of their guards can get open due to the lack of defensive attention on Drummond.

Yeah. In a lot of games I've watched him play in, he even seems like he's scared to receive the ball. He never calls for it, and doesn't know how to establish post position. He's still very young, so it's very possible that he gets better in that area, but there's one thing clear: his HS coach did a pretty poor job developing him.

[Rafael122]

So Drummond has a per over 20, great, the problem I see is his demeanor and or lack thereof. He's got no heart. Kid is talented for sure, but I wouldn't trust him, I wouldn't. You had coaches/teammates barking at him b/c he essentially quit in that one game a couple of weeks back. Last thing the Wizards need to do is babysit another player.

There's over-analysis of Drummond. He's still the second best prospect in the draft, imo. He's not super-intense, but I really don't see the uber negatives in his attitude that others apparently see. This is definitely not a Cousins type situation, for example. In general, it seems he's a good quiet kid, is unselfish, is really good on the break, has great defensive potential, and has skills that can be developed on offense. It'll take some time, but as long as he's in a decent situation in the NBA with an uselfish PG, he'll be fine.

Sleeper time - that's the most fun part of the draft - finding a player who hasn't been talked about a lot but will someday be a star. Has anyone mentioned Tony Mitchell from North Texas in the Sun Belt (not the Tony Mitchell on Alabama)? My apologies if someone has. He's like a poor man's Anthony Davis. He missed last season due to academic reasons, but he's still a 19 year old freshman. See his stats http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/basketball/players/110025 great rebounding/blocks/steals/shooting % numbers. He was also the top per minute rebounder in the entire Nike international Under 18 Tournament 2 years ago - which included Jonas V. Listed at 6'8 220 - the question is - How big is he going to be, and how long is he. Also notice - he's hit some 3's - at a good percentage. So, if he grows just an inch or so and fills out - this kid could shoot way up.

He's mentally fragile. We went through this with Kwame, why go through it again?