Interesting paper on
the best combinations of 'Big 2's and Big 3's. The methodology breaks player styles into 14 clusters, based on criteria they describe in the paper.
Orlando's 'Big 2' is fairly obvious; Howard and Anderson. Howard falls into cluster 12, or the high scoring, high rebounding, high blocks bigs group. Anderson falls into cluster 11, or the stretch 4 group.
Unfortunately a 11 + 12 player type duo didn't have any statistically significant impact on over-performing, at least as far as the study could see. Frankly I attribute this to the relative dearth of elite stretch-4's. The fact that there wasn't any negative correlation for this duo is at least something positive to take away.
What I find really interesting is looking at who our 3rd best player could be. Salary wise and MPG wise that would be Hedo, PER and WS/48 wise it is Redick, and PPG wise it is JRich.
We'll start with Hedo, since he was part of the 'Big 3' that took this team to the finals in '09. His high assists and great three point shooting puts him most comfortably in cluster 8, or the high scoring, multifaceted wings grouping. The problem is he doesn't score near enough, get to the line enough, and turns the ball over way too much. This thing of it is, 8 + 12 is the strongest duo in the study, so if Hedo could get back to his '08 and even '09 form the Magic have themselves a very, very dangerous pairing. This potential alone should give us some semblance of hope come playoff time.
Redick best fits in cluster 4, or with the wing three point shooters group. A team with this type player as part of their big 3 doesn't register as either significant or harmful. The positive news is that Redick is well above average at what he does, so if he is indeed our 3rd best player it won't be that the sky is falling. But he'll also need more than 25 MPG...
JRich, well at one point he may have been in cluster 2, or the dynamic scoring 2 guard group, but I think that ship has sailed. Now he too is transitioning into that cluster 4 group as a wing three point shooter. Shoots the three well but doesn't contribute much else like getting to the line and assisting the ball. Not as good as Redick at this stage IMO, but we seem hell bent on getting something out of him.
Well, I really just wanted to ramble on about the thoughts I had relating that paper to the Magic. I find it very interesting that Hedo is most likely our most important player outside of Dwight, and that while chemistry may be settling in terms of who our 2 best players are there is still a cloud over the 3 spot in our team's hierarchy.
One final thought, Iggy or Ellis would both be huge upgrades over Hedo if we could get them. I didn't realize that both fit so nicely into cluster 8, but seeing that now and seeing how significant an advantage pairing 8's and 12's gives a team, I'm more interested than ever in grabbing Ellis.