Jonas Valanciunas 11/12 Season Thread II

[parks3981]

I've tried to keep a damper on some of the wilder expectations here for Jonas, because he will be rookie he won't be exempt from the first year tribulations that impact most rookies. He's not at a scoring position for us, so it's unrealistic to assume double digit offence from him. It could happen, but I wouldn't assume it, and if he doesn't walk on water as a rookie, it won't cause me to reduce my ceiling for him.

He has a lot to learn. Offensively, he has a lot of room to improve his post play. He has a nice jumpshot, but he uses it so infrequently in the Rytas scheme of things that it will take time for him to find favorite places on the court to use it at a decent percentage. And I can go down the line of things that will hold him back as a rookie, including foul trouble, shot selection, adjusting to NBA travel and learning new offensive and defensive schemes.

And it's true, the league is full of young big men who can do some of the things he can.

But I apply seven filters to all that.

Filter #1 - Remove all who aren't at least seven feet tall with a 7'4 wingspan
Filter #2 - Remove all who don't show good shooting mechanics
Filter #3 - Remove all who get discouraged when they are overlooked time and time again after setting up to receive the ball
Filter #4 - Remove all who don't make themselves available for a pass on every single possession
Filter #5 - Remove all who can't execute a quick roll to the basket on the pick and roll
Filter #6 - Remove all who don't have good offensive rebounding instincts
Filter #7 - Remove all who can't make 80% of their free throws

Once you apply those seven filters and realize you are talking about a very short list, you can appreciate my optimism that as Jonas improves his strength, post footwork, etc, and benefits from Casey's sound defensive system, he can be a major stud.

Dagger I've always checked your posts with intrigue, especially when they are Jonas-related, because it was clear well before the draft that you had a leg up on everyone when it came to knowing Val as a prospect.

For the same "filters" that you mentioned, I too am also very excited about how he projects to the NBA. Without setting any rookie expectations because of the circumstances that come with that (not bulked up yet, long season, speed of the game etc.) I too think he can be a major stud in this league, and that he is the perfect fit for Dwayne Casey's system. I see him as a cross of Noah, with the agility for his size and his passion, and Chandler for his pick and roll game and finishing ability around the basket. The guy will knock down 80% of his free throws though too. Scary.

[Regulio]

None of those players came even close to 25 minutes. There's only 3 players this season averaging over 25 minutes a game and scoring less than 6 points. And two of them are over the age of 37. It's only happend 30 times in the last ten years. That's a pretty bold prediction for someone who's best skills are finishing around the basket and shooting free throws.

Mufasa's hate is so strong that he thinks Jonas will be even worse than that

[realball]

I'm the Valanciunas hater like I was the Derozan hater. People were so mad when I said DD being called a freak athlete was a joke and that Henderson was more athletic, that Derozan was unlikely to be a ballhandling wing in the NBA, and that his absolute upside was JRich

Comparisons to Amir, Varejao and Gortat as his floor/most likely/upside as an insult is just as bizarre as those reactions. Those are good, great and all-star caliber players respectively. If Val is Varejao or Gortat that's the right pick at #5 and I'll eat crow for not being more on board with it, because Varejao at 5 in that draft >>> getting a B combo guard who puts up shots, if that's what the alternatives like Kemba and Jimmer end up being

I personally always thought that Demar's upside is J-Rich (actually Josh Howard/Caron Butler, but close enough) and a more fluid Gortat is Val's most likely scenario. The only people who thought Demar was going to be Kobe were the 12 year olds.

Your comparison's aren't as much an outrage as the fact that you think that Gortat is Val's ceiling. Also that in desperate attempt to prove yourself, you projected Val to have a worse rookie season than Ed Davis. Or that the only thing you see about Val is that he is "long and rebounds well in an inferior league". Seriously, every single draft prospect plays in an inferior league. Your logic boggles my mind.

[raptor21_85]

guys, what if bosh were here instead of Bargs, how do you see a duo of Bosh/Valanciunas?

[peja drobnjak]

owny as hell. only problem is bosh is 27 and val is 19/20 so primes won't match

perfect fits too. two solid help defenders, one operating down low, other from the elbow in. bosh pick and pop and val pick and roll would be deadly options

[UcanUwill]

I agree with Mufasa on a thing. You need to be patient...

Everything else is BS.

To Mufasa.

Why you keep talking about him, like you know him... I know him very well, i basically everything you think you know about VAL, is BS...

Some hysterical quotes you made:

''Jonas has mediocre basketball IQ at best''

Thats a joke. VALs bb IQ is extremely high! I would say top 10 among centers in the NBA/Euroleague/Eurocup...

''uncomfortable anytime he makes physical contact with a player''

What are you talking about? Cant be more backwards. Jonas is comfortable and loves physical contact. Thats his cup of tea. He always draws physical contact, and most the times, good things happens.

''JVal is horrible at setting screens''

No, he is not horrible. It looks like you just cherrypicking all the VALs weaknesses anyone ever said here, and now you think like you know it.
His screen setting mechanics are insecure looking, but he always sets the right screens it the right place at the right time. I doubt the bigman who is horrible at setting screens can be one of the best pick and roll bigs in a game... Its just doesnt really make sense.
Its kinda interesting, but if you look back at his early Euroleague games, he used to set hard not moving screes, but he switch since Jasikevicius arrived, and he does it ever since. But its actually works for him. He probably can switch back and use hard screens, instead of fake screens.

he's had fouling and reading the speed of the game problems in the past and have average offensive instincts

he was picked between Tristan Thompson and Jan Vesely.

is that really an argument? And I am pretty sure Jonas is the one, who boosted his stocks the most. If you redo draft today, I bet hes a number 2 pick.

His buyout played along. He had at least 2 more years with Rytas, thats why he dropped in the first place. Yes, he had 2 more years, Brian was the one who made it to 1.
And thats what happened week before draft. During Treviso camp, people started saying Jonas' buyout is more complicated than that, and that he is not coming over until 2014!
There were rumors hes dropping, and that San Antonio Spurs are willing to trade Tony Parker for a Wizards pick, and to draft Jonas at 6.

His rebounding is not as big a lock as his reputation suggests because if you watch him, he relies on his length and seeing where the ball's going to get them but sucks at using his body to block out opponents, and he can barely jump. That's why he's a great offensive rebounder and decent defensive rebounder. I'm not that impressed by Valanciunas' rebounding fundamentals.

Yet again, you act like you know him.

He is the best rebounder in Europe. Thats not reputation, thats a fact.
And yes, he relies on his length, but first, it works, and second, he actually has good fundamentals in my book. He knows where the ball is landing and keeps the ball high all the time. Thats things you usually cant learn, you just have it or not.
When you see bad things, i see good things. You can teach how to boxing out, thats not a problem, and its not like he cant do it at all. Hes a straight dominant rebounder even with a mediocre boxing out game, just imagine his ceilings as a rebounder, when he fills his frame, gains more experience and fully learns how to use his body...
If he can rebound in Europe, He can do it in the NBA. I dont know why some people acts like European accomplishments means nothing at all. Its a sub par level, but hes not playing against paraplegics...



P.S.

Saying, Marcin Gortat is his upside is stupid. He may ends up being Gortat v2, but his ceilings are way up.
I really think we gonna look back at VALs early Euroleague, Eurocup numbers to say - The guy showed signs of greatness early in his career.
He is one of the best youngmen Cs in the world, and thats not enough? Bigmen develops their game their entire careers, most skilled bigs to play this game were usually very raw at age 22/23, Jonas is 19...

And I think Bargs is a better fit.

[raptor21_85]

well said UcouldUwould
I agree with you, saying Vals ceilling is Gortat is like saying Andreas ceilling is fu.ckin Ryan ANderson

[Darknemo2000]

Mufasa writes BS about Val because he hates him and do not watch his games. He has a strong bias on him that shows through, like a total nonsense that Jonas is afraid of contact *Val loves physical contact, and thats the reason why he gets so many offensive fouls - he just goes way too hard into his opponents, he will need to limit that, but one thing is for sure - Val absolutely loves physical game and he always plays the best when refs allow to play hard).

Another thing is that Mufasa made up thing about him being a poor rebounder - he was the first in whole rebounding last year and thats not the opinion - its a fact. And lately he is leading eurocup in rebounding rate too. So while his rebounding may not look pretty and he doesnt set a good boxing out - his rebounding is still superb.

Jonas IQ is actually very high too. He passes out of the double teams quickle. Reads the game well too. Now his passing could still improve but as far as his BB IQ goes he is very solid.

What Mufasa may be right is Jonas screens looking weak - they are indeed. But Mufasa doesnt know Jonas at all and here it shows. Why? Because Jonas used up to setp hard screens, but once he started playing with Jasikevicius as Ucan said his screening technique changed on purpose - he felt it was easier to roll to the basket this way. It still creates some discomfort for the guard and pulls the Jonas big closer which works just fine since Jonas is faster than most bigs and can easily outrun them on the roll.

He is still using it now since it works for him. Mufasa on the other hand writes it down to Jonas being incapable of setting the real, hard screens while it is pretty obvious for those who follow Jonas games that this is his conscious choice to play this way. If it wont worlk on NBA he will go back to setting hard/strong screens like he used to.

[Mefisto]

DrMufasa is hating troll, why mods don't ban him?

[kiriux]

Rytas playing vs Juventus in 35 minutes.
Link: http://www.basketnews.lt/vaizdo-transliacijos.html

[JYD]

Rytas playing vs Juventus in 35 minutes.
Link: http://www.basketnews.lt/vaizdo-transliacijos.html

Thanks! Will check er out.

[kiriux]

Valanciunas playing vs his hometown team. Horrible game, Juventus can't make a single shot

[KG1585]

Valanciunas doing work. The other team is terrible.

[KG1585]

Anyone have a link to a boxscore?

[xprt]

Forgot to tune in for this game but seems JV hasn't any problems 10/8/2 at half.

http://www.lkl.lt/netcasting/index.php?game_number=3253

[kiriux]

Valanciunas doing work. The other team is terrible.

Their only good player is C Karolis Petrukonis(212 cm, 115kg). He plays like mini-Valanciunas, good at pick and roll, good at FT, can hit from mid-range, good rebounder. He is just older and not as talanted as Val. I think he will be Val's back-up at C position in LT national team, when Javtokas retires. Juventus back-up C is 220 cm guy, so they have good lenght and skill at C position, but other positions are horrible. Petrukonis is probably gonna be in Rytas next year, when Jonas will be gone.

[Elastic]

It looks like Alex McKechnie (Raps strength and conditioning coach) was sent to Vilnius to evaluate/work with Valanciunas.

[KG1585]

It looks like Alex McKechnie (Raps strength and conditioning coach) was sent to Vilnius to evaluate/work with Valanciunas.

Yea, BC mentioned it the other day. That they were going to send him to see Val to give him plan to get bigger.

Is that Maurizio ahead of him?

[NiL8r87]

So Val has 2 steals but Tyrese Rice has 3 blocks. Awesome boxscore.

[Elastic]

So Val has 2 steals but Tyrese Rice has 3 blocks. Awesome boxscore.

Lithuanian league (online) boxscore confuses steals with blocks.