Secueritae wrote:I'm just saying you guys are overrating brett cecil way too much.
His ERA in each of his seasons starting are over 4, with his best being 4.2 and his worst 5.3, being that the Blue Jays offense bailed him out most of the 2010 season.
He's very replaceable in the starting rotation, especially with all the prospects we have
He's in the category of a current Jeff Francis, who was good in their best season, but cannot pitch for a win if the offense does not bail him out now-a-days (i,e, atleast 4 runs provided by the offense).
To me he's = Jeremy Guthrie but with more offense provided.
Would you tell me you would take a Jeremy Guthrie and throw him in the starting rotation if given the right price or give the position to prospects to see what they have?
Starting Rotation - Romero, Morrow, Cecil, Alvarez, McGowan.
Do you think Hutchinson or Deck McGuire can take Cecil's place?
Hell I'd rather give Drabek another chance or Kyle Davies rather than Cecil.
Bobby Abreau's contract as big as it is is only 1 year at $9m. He has declined with age, but still gets on base. Now isn't that something that the Jays lacked especially with Bautista rarely being pitched too, or Lind not successfully getting hits off of good pitches? Sending Cecil is low-risk and let's us see what other dimension we can get with an expiring Abreau, who if doesn't retire would like to produce as much as he can in order to ensure a contract for 2013?
Much better post with much stronger arguments. Thanks for that.
Personally I don't think we are overrating Brett Cecil. He is pitching in the toughest division and had a bad year last year. Still, his career numbers aren't that terrible. In the 2011 season the team posted an ERA of 4.32. Cecil posted an ERA of 4.73. He didn't hurt the cause that much at the young age of 24. (Remember his 2010 season he posted a 4.22 ERA as a 23 year old in the AL East)
Another thing I like about Cecil is he had the same WHIP in both seasons. That's right, 2010 and 2011 were both 1.33 WHIP. He is also a young, cost controlled pitcher who is under control for 3+ more years for only a portion of what he deserves (Arbitration usually goes around 40%-60%-80%)
He gave up a ton of long balls (1.60/9) which killed his starts. His LOB% was right there at league average which if he can improve against righties it will go up.
You are also missing potential value here in the LOOGY role. If Cecil is switched to a LOOGY, we would enjoy better numbers that what his career is currently against lefties (because he can use more energy on a single pitch, that's what relievers tend to have lower ERA's). His career against lefties is actually quite something, especially when you remind yourself that he is a starter. His career left splits against 450 total left handed batters which had to face him. He held them to a HR every 37.5 PA, only walked 30 and struck out 88. He held opponents to a .235 BA with a sub .290 OBP. To me the most impressive number is the slugging%, which he held them to .344.
We are looking at the makings of either a decent starter or an excellent LOOGY. Either way he should serve a purpose on this team beyond bringing a 38 year old platoon player to our club.
He not only would fetch more currently on the open market but also is probably not being shopped as the Jays still realize his potential. I'm sure you have heard the reports that he has had some kind of "re-birth" and is reshaping himself to come back stronger than ever before. I would not be surprised if he comes in and post career highs in CG's, FB velocity and does it all with a serious face.
Try and think back to when he shutout the Texas Rangers, one of the premier offensive talents in all of baseball. He pitched a gem, and was only 24 when he did that. (Last season he was only 24). If he can even do that twice a year hes worth it to keep as a starter.
This should be a make or break year for Cecil in the rotation, and I have confidence that no matter what happens Cecil will either end up as a good reliever, a great LOOGY or a number 3 starter in the toughest division in baseball.
This 38 year old you talk about isn't really much better than Edwin now. Even with the worst positional adjustment in baseball at DH as well as the fielding errors at 3B, his fWAR is still 3x that of Abreu. The guy wouldn't even start over Edwin.
I agree with you about the depth of the farm system being able to easily replace Cecil, but I don't think anybody is close enough to forcing Cecil out of the rotation THIS year. NEXT year, I see that as a large possibility.
Cecil deserves 1 more year to show what he can do. Just like Colby and Kelly should be given a chance to show what they can do regardless of 2011.
There is no point trading 3 years of Cecil for 1 year of Abreu, especially when 1 year of Abreu cost more than 3 years of Cecil. Only way this trade might be worth it is if they sent more money than Abreu makes in the trade to "buy" Cecil from us. He would probably make even the Angels rotation.
