2012 Bill James Blue Jays Batting Projections

baulderdash77 · Post #1 » by **baulderdash77** » Mon Feb 20, 2012 3:43 pm

Bill James should be everyone here's go to guy for decent projections. Here's excerpts of his 2012 Jays predictions. I'll go through my projected batting order:

Escobar : .284/.364/.396 10 HR, 80 R, 58 RBI
Thames : .279/.333/.489 14 HR, 58 R, 52 RBI (393 PA's- same as last year)
Bautista: .262/.385/.525 38 HR, 103 R, 108 RBI
Lind: .268/.322/.474 27 HR, 69 R, 94 RBI
Lawrie: .284/.337/.495 22 HR, 92 R, 75 RBI (30 SB)
Johnson: .251/.334/.439 19 HR, 78 R, 62 RBI
Encarnacion: .266/.341/.462 16 HR, 52 R, 53 RBI (403 PA's)
Rasmus: .255/.334/.446 18 HR, 77 R, 56 RBI
JPA: .231/.281/.457 24 HR, 54 R, 73 RBI

He's projecting a regression for Bautista but bounce back seasons for Lind & Rasmus. This lineup per his projections has 188 HR's. This would be another top 10 offensive team in the MLB.

torontoaces04 · Post #2 » by **torontoaces04** » Mon Feb 20, 2012 3:58 pm

Pretty decent projections overall.

However, the constant assumption that Bautista is going to regress, I find laughable.

Though 38 HR, and 108 RBI is still a great season, the .262 batting average is certainly a wild guess.

baulderdash77 · Post #3 » by **baulderdash77** » Mon Feb 20, 2012 4:45 pm

I would honestly be thrilled with a .796 OPS season from Lind. How expectations can get lowered.

He's actually projecting that Thames is going to have a breakout season with an .822 OPS. That would end Snider's tenure with the Jays for sure and cement Thames as a fixture in the lineup.

The league average OPS was .730 last year. In this projection only JPA at .738 is really close to league average. That being said, Boston & New York had .810 and .788 team averages last year and we're showing only half our lineup at that level but the gap would be a lot tighter.

Al_Oliver · Post #4 » by **Al_Oliver** » Mon Feb 20, 2012 4:48 pm

baulderdash77 wrote:Bill James should be everyone here's go to guy for decent projections.

just curious, but why do you say this? as opposed to which projections? ZiPS, etc?

baulderdash77 · Post #5 » by **baulderdash77** » Mon Feb 20, 2012 4:53 pm

Just because Bill James is really the father of saber-metrics. He's the largest contributor to the body of work that gives actual statistical projections rather than just pulling numbers out of thin air. That kind of history gives him credentials in my book. They're all using something similar but I go with James.

baulderdash77 · Post #6 » by **baulderdash77** » Mon Feb 20, 2012 5:00 pm

Also ZiPS give everyone full playing time for everyone and has automatic downgrades from AA to MLB and AAA to MLB, while Bill James tries to project reality. To me it's just not very realistic.

flatjacket1 · Post #7 » by **flatjacket1** » Mon Feb 20, 2012 5:07 pm

I'd be happy with that season from Bautista. I think its common knowledge that he will regress (he won't repeat 8 WAR) the question is how much.

Al_Oliver · Post #8 » by **Al_Oliver** » Mon Feb 20, 2012 5:40 pm

baulderdash77 wrote:Also ZiPS give everyone full playing time for everyone and has automatic downgrades from AA to MLB and AAA to MLB, while Bill James tries to project reality. To me it's just not very realistic.

okay, thanks

Parataxis · Post #9 » by **Parataxis** » Mon Feb 20, 2012 6:08 pm

flatjacket1 wrote:I'd be happy with that season from Bautista. I think its common knowledge that he will regress (he won't repeat 8 WAR) the question is how much.

That was common knowledge last of season too, no?

flatjacket1 · Post #10 » by **flatjacket1** » Mon Feb 20, 2012 6:52 pm

Parataxis wrote:
flatjacket1 wrote:I'd be happy with that season from Bautista. I think its common knowledge that he will regress (he won't repeat 8 WAR) the question is how much.

That was common knowledge last of season too, no?

5.4 WAR is repeatable. How many players in the last decade finished with 8 or more WAR two seasons in a row? I bet less than 10.

Parataxis · Post #11 » by **Parataxis** » Mon Feb 20, 2012 10:16 pm

flatjacket1 wrote:
Parataxis wrote:
flatjacket1 wrote:I'd be happy with that season from Bautista. I think its common knowledge that he will regress (he won't repeat 8 WAR) the question is how much.

That was common knowledge last of season too, no?

5.4 WAR is repeatable. How many players in the last decade finished with 8 or more WAR two seasons in a row? I bet less than 10.

Nobody is arguing if it's repeatable or not.

Simple question - to your recollection was "Bautista will regress" common knowledge around the league last off-season, or not?

Seems to me that it was.

Avenger · Post #12 » by **Avenger** » Mon Feb 20, 2012 10:36 pm

Al_Oliver wrote:
baulderdash77 wrote:Also ZiPS give everyone full playing time for everyone and has automatic downgrades from AA to MLB and AAA to MLB, while Bill James tries to project reality. To me it's just not very realistic.

okay, thanks

this isn't even close to being true. Bill James' puts out by far the worst projections year after year, they're wildly optimistic especially for younger players.

LBJSeizedMyID · Post #13 » by **LBJSeizedMyID** » Mon Feb 20, 2012 11:47 pm

Wildly optimistic. Can't have that on a Jays board. Go figure.

flatjacket1 · Post #14 » by **flatjacket1** » Tue Feb 21, 2012 2:06 am

Parataxis wrote:Nobody is arguing if it's repeatable or not.

Simple question - to your recollection was "Bautista will regress" common knowledge around the league last off-season, or not?

Seems to me that it was.

I think the general feeling around the league was his play style was going to change more than anything. Pitchers were going to give him less to hit, and if he adjusted he was going to get on base more. Him getting on base more is really what drove the WAR up. I thought Bautista was (still think he is) about a 5 WAR player, and I think for the next few years he will collect about that. Whether its with 40 HR or 20, I think his composition of stats will change a lot but I don't see his general effectiveness changing much. Last season was an outlier IMO.

If you believe Bautista will do much better this season power to you, I respect that.