David Robinson: Defensive GOAT

[G35]

Can't remember if it was the game in the posted video, but Rodman really showed what kind of a headcase he was at that time. I remember two instance of him shooting pull-up 3's on a fast break when he had other players open. Hakeem had Horry to help stretch the defense and Robinson had Rodman. It was clear Olajuwon was the superior player, but I don't think the gap is as big as it seems with what happened in that series.

He shot three 3's in that game. Why....no one knows...from watching the game and looking at the boxscores I think the major difference (as it tends to be in the playoff's) was the three point shooting. The Spurs didn't even take that many three's, much less make many. The Rockets were very prolific.

Horry killed the Spurs in that series.

Spurs for the series were 23-72 on three point shots. That's .319 % shooting.
Rockets shot 44-127 .346%

Game by game three point shooting:

Game 1 Rockets win
Rockets 5-16 ..313%
Spurs 2-8 .250%

Game 2 Rockets win
Rockets 9-19 .474%
Spurs 4-18 .222%

Game 3 Spurs win
Rockets 13-29 .448%
Spurs 9-19 .474%

Game 4 Spurs win
Rockets 3-16 .188%
Spurs 4-13 .308%

Game 5 Rockets win
Rockets 6-17 .353%
Spurs 2-7 .286%

Game 6 Rockets win
Rockets 8-30 .267%
Spurs 2-7 .286%


Every big man is dependent on his teammates hitting outside shots to open up space. DRob didn't have a back to the basket game so spacing is even more crucial to him to open up his ability to drive. Hakeem's teammates were once again clutch as usual. The Rockets were a prolific threeepoint shooting team and Horry killed the Spurs in this series......

[bastillon]

as for RDPOY, I'm with drza on those 3-year projects, well, actually, maybe 2-year projects would've been good enough.

[colts18]

as for RDPOY, I'm with drza on those 3-year projects, well, actually, maybe 2-year projects would've been good enough.

I think we could do individual years for the past decade because we all remember 2004 and can make an informed decision. Anything before 00-01, we would need multiple years.

[bastillon]

as for RDPOY, I'm with drza on those 3-year projects, well, actually, maybe 2-year projects would've been good enough.

I think we could do individual years for the past decade because we all remember 2004 and can make an informed decision. Anything before 00-01, we would need multiple years.

we can make an informed decision prior to 00-01 as well, games are available, articles are available, game recaps are mostly available, it's just that people could lose interest after some time.

I think we should also focus on the playoffs because that's how our previous RPOY worked and that's also what really gets you closer to NBA title. RS data is obviously helpful though, for a multitude of reasons.

[colts18]

Here is some +/- data from 01-03 since we now have the data for Robinson's last 3 seasons.

Overall Spurs: 98.80 D rating, .491 TS%

D Rob:
On court: 95.88 D rating, .478 TS%
Off court: 102.08 D rating, .506 TS%
+6.2 D rating, +2.8 TS% difference

Duncan:
On court: 97.51 D rating, .484 TS%
Off court: 104.31 D rating, 522 TS%
+6.8 D rating, +3.8 TS%

DRob/Duncan together on court:
94.99 D rating, .474 TS%

Duncan on court,Drob off:
100.41 D rating
.496 TS%

Drob on court, Duncan off:
99.91 D rating
.495 TS%

No D rob or Duncan on court:
108.79 D rating
.549 TS%

Bruce Bowen:
On court: 97.72 D rating, .488 TS%
Off court: 99.4 D rating, .493 TS%

[drza]

Here is some +/- data from 01-03 since we now have the data for Robinson's last 3 seasons.

Overall Spurs: 98.80 D rating, .491 TS%

D Rob:
On court: 95.88 D rating, .478 TS%
Off court: 102.08 D rating, .506 TS%
+6.2 D rating, +2.8 TS% difference

Duncan:
On court: 97.51 D rating, .484 TS%
Off court: 104.31 D rating, 522 TS%
+6.8 D rating, +3.8 TS%

DRob/Duncan together on court:
94.99 D rating, .474 TS%

Duncan on court,Drob off:
100.41 D rating
.496 TS%

Drob on court, Duncan off:
99.91 D rating
.495 TS%

No D rob or Duncan on court:
108.79 D rating
.549 TS%

Bruce Bowen:
On court: 97.72 D rating, .488 TS%
Off court: 99.4 D rating, .493 TS%

I love this analysis, especially as it concerns the question of Duncan vs Robinson as the anchors of that era of Spurs defense. Essentially, there is nothing at all to separate them in terms of on-court defensive impact. And it's the "both on court"/"one-on-court" additional level of comparison that really separates this from the basic on/off measurement.

Essentially, this is the foundation of a very rudimentary adjusted plus-minus calculation. Because it shows that there was an obvious interaction between them in terms of defensive impact, so crediting just one for the impact is factually incorrect.

[mysticbb]

Essentially, this is the foundation of a very rudimentary adjusted plus-minus calculation. Because it shows that there was an obvious interaction between them in terms of defensive impact, so crediting just one for the impact is factually incorrect.

No, you can't interpret the data like this. We are running into a huge collinearity issue, because Robinson played the biggest chunck of his minutes with Duncan on the court. I wouldn't be surprised, if RAPM would found that Duncan actually had a bigger defensive impact. Additional to that we have to keep in mind that Duncan played for 39.5 minutes per game, Robinson played 28.5.

[drza]

Essentially, this is the foundation of a very rudimentary adjusted plus-minus calculation. Because it shows that there was an obvious interaction between them in terms of defensive impact, so crediting just one for the impact is factually incorrect.

No, you can't interpret the data like this. We are running into a huge collinearity issue, because Robinson played the biggest chunck of his minutes with Duncan on the court. I wouldn't be surprised, if RAPM would found that Duncan actually had a bigger defensive impact. Additional to that we have to keep in mind that Duncan played for 39.5 minutes per game, Robinson played 28.5.

Yes, but go back and re-look at those numbers again. Their "on-court" results would be where the collinearity would be most expected to show up. But by looking at the results with one and without the other, as Coltsfan did, you start to eat into those collinearity results a bit. Which makes it, as I said, the basis of a rudimentary APM measurement. And looking at multiple-year swatches, as was done here, is another way to chip into the collinearity issue. I'd be curious to see what the total minutes were for each of the epochs that Coltsfan laid out, but their averages in those different epochs are virtually identical so far (and tells a very similar story to the estimates that B-R's individual DRating gave for those years).

This level of analysis alone wouldn't be something I would stand on as completely rigorous. But I think it was an excellent start, and see no problem whatsoever in initially making the characterizations that I did. Also, note that I stated in the part of the post you snipped, "there is nothing at all to separate them in terms of on-court defensive impact" (emphasis added here). Issues like playing time would likely make Duncan the larger impact defender overall, but for the time when they were on the court there doesn't appear to be much (if anything at all) to separate them based on these initial results.

[colts18]

Essentially, this is the foundation of a very rudimentary adjusted plus-minus calculation. Because it shows that there was an obvious interaction between them in terms of defensive impact, so crediting just one for the impact is factually incorrect.

No, you can't interpret the data like this. We are running into a huge collinearity issue, because Robinson played the biggest chunck of his minutes with Duncan on the court. I wouldn't be surprised, if RAPM would found that Duncan actually had a bigger defensive impact. Additional to that we have to keep in mind that Duncan played for 39.5 minutes per game, Robinson played 28.5.

Yes, but go back and re-look at those numbers again. Their "on-court" results would be where the collinearity would be most expected to show up. But by looking at the results with one and without the other, as Coltsfan did, you start to eat into those collinearity results a bit. Which makes it, as I said, the basis of a rudimentary APM measurement. And looking at multiple-year swatches, as was done here, is another way to chip into the collinearity issue. I'd be curious to see what the total minutes were for each of the epochs that Coltsfan laid out, but their averages in those different epochs are virtually identical so far (and tells a very similar story to the estimates that B-R's individual DRating gave for those years).

This level of analysis alone wouldn't be something I would stand on as completely rigorous. But I think it was an excellent start, and see no problem whatsoever in initially making the characterizations that I did. Also, note that I stated in the part of the post you snipped, "there is nothing at all to separate them in terms of on-court defensive impact" (emphasis added here). Issues like playing time would likely make Duncan the larger impact defender overall, but for the time when they were on the court there doesn't appear to be much (if anything at all) to separate them based on these initial results.

Here is some minutes data:

Overall Spurs: 98.80 D rating, .491 TS%

D Rob: 6347 minutes
On court: 95.88 D rating, .478 TS%
Off court: 102.08 D rating, .506 TS%
+6.2 D rating, +2.8 TS% difference

Duncan: 9689 minutes
On court: 97.51 D rating, .484 TS%
Off court: 104.31 D rating, 522 TS%
+6.8 D rating, +3.8 TS%

DRob/Duncan together on court: 5188 minutes
94.99 D rating, .474 TS%

Duncan on court,Drob off: 4501 minutes
100.41 D rating
.496 TS%

Drob on court, Duncan off: 1160 minutes
99.91 D rating
.495 TS%

No D rob or Duncan on court: 1059 minutes
108.79 D rating
.549 TS%

Bruce Bowen: 4264 minutes
On court: 97.72 D rating, .488 TS%
Off court: 99.4 D rating, .493 TS%

Robinson, Duncan, and Bowen on court: 2264 minutes
94.79 D rating
.470 TS%

[mysticbb]

Yes, but go back and re-look at those numbers again. Their "on-court" results would be where the collinearity would be most expected to show up. But by looking at the results with one and without the other, as Coltsfan did, you start to eat into those collinearity results a bit. Which makes it, as I said, the basis of a rudimentary APM measurement.

Sorry, but it is not that simple. You would need to adjust to the teammates. The assumption can be made that Robinson overall played with better defender in average. He had less minutes, keep that in mind. And if we look at the On-Court Ratings for both, we can see just the result of the increased minutes for Duncan here and NOT a difference in terms of defensive impact. In fact the biggest indicator would be the On/Off Court numbers and in those Duncan makes the bigger difference, as you can see. The Spurs without Robinson were still a 102.1 DRtg team, and that in over 5500 minutes. While they were a 104.31 DRtg team without Duncan. Duncan played 4501 minutes without Robinson, and in thus minutes very likely with worse defenders on the court than Robinson without Duncan.

And looking at multiple-year swatches, as was done here, is another way to chip into the collinearity issue.

Actually, no. We don't have enough data for this at all. We would need the performance level of the teammates and opponents in order to make such an analysis.

Also, note that I stated in the part of the post you snipped, "there is nothing at all to separate them in terms of on-court defensive impact" (emphasis added here).

Yes, that's what you said, and I tell you that you can't make a statement like this based on those numbers. You want to imply that both had the same effect, which might be not true. In fact, as I said, I wouldn't be surprised to see Duncan with the higher defensive RAPM during those years.

Issues like playing time would likely make Duncan the larger impact defender overall, but for the time when they were on the court there doesn't appear to be much (if anything at all) to separate them based on these initial results.

Robinson played nearly 82% of his minutes with Duncan. For sure that is not possible to take those numbers presented and seperate them. You could do that with basically every player and could end up with a similar result. The biggest sample would still be the On/Off difference, which would favor Duncan.

[drza]

...

Absent a quote war, you're parsing much too finely here. I understand the math behind the calculations as well as you do, and I understand the points you make. But on the flip side, none of those points are any stronger than what I wrote until a more advanced calculation is done. As I said in the very, very first post of mine that you quoted, Coltsfan's data was the basis for a "VERY RUDIMENTARY APM calculation". The more sophisticated, obviously the better. And I'd love to see actual APM calculations performed on that data (and I'm sure that we will). But there is absolutely nothing in there to indicate that there will be a major difference between the two of them in further calculations. If I'm wrong, I'll gladly admit it when the time comes. But I see very little chance that both of them aren't top-10 in an '01 - '03 DAPM calculation, and if Duncan is ahead we're looking at a marginal difference. Which, in the end, was the point of that first post of mine. The Spurs defense wasn't a Duncan-only show, Robinson was at the very worst a co-anchor. If you disagree with that statement then I'd say that we'll just have to see when the calculations are made. But if your point is to really emphasize that Duncan likely has a small advantage, consider it noted and I return to my initial statement in this post that you're parsing it too finely in the details and missing the overall point.

[ahonui06]

Robinson was an excellent defender, but Bill Russell is the defensive GOAT and it's not close whatsoever. Look at the advanced defensive stats and you will understand. Combine that with his 11 titles which were predicated on defense and it's even more clear how impressive he was defensively.

[thamadkant]

As a Suns fan, I saw enough of Robinson... probably more as he was my fave player, hard to cheer for Suns win and cheer when Robinson played well also lol.


But the guy was perfectly built for a Center...
7'1
7'7+ reach
255 pounds
1% body fat
near 40 inch verticals
Near top in time trials

Could of been a 7 foot GYMNAST if he wanted to....

He was the ultimate prototype for rebounding, shot blocking, challenging shots.... defensively.
Offensively.... Almost ALL former greats agreed that Robinson was a Sky Hook Shot away in his arsenal from being the most complete NBA center of All time..... Hakeem was on the same boat, except Hakeem was craftier, best foot work for a big man, he did have his own hook shot... etc but just wasnt of a physical specimen as Robinson was.

[colts18]

As far RDPOY, I think we could do a set up like this:

01-11: Individual season
99-00
97-98
95-96
92-94
89-91
85-88
80-84

I don't think it would make sense to go past 1980 with the lack of data.