Official Speculation & Free Agency Thread (PtXI, Mods close)

[ChildishGambino]

So i'm watching ESPN i see a promo for Dwight...are they really going on the air with this Brian Scalabrine story.....seriously? i hope not because for me it would mark a new low for BSPN

[rcklsscognition]

Mar. 16: Call it karma or fate, whatever. But if Howard is traded to New Jersey, guess what? The Magic’s first game after the trade deadline is against…. the Nets. How cruel. It could be Howard’s first game against his former team — and at Amway Center, of all places. You couldn’t make this stuff up. Magic boo-birds surely would let him have it, a night that might require extra security at the arena. Imagine Bynum wearing a Magic jersey. Or Howard could still be with the Magic, meaning he could be playing out the string until he becomes a free agent, possibly leaving the Magic with no compensation.

Awesome.

[The Real Dalic]

Yep. it's the day I have marked on my calender, and, I hope we actually get something done. whether it's a cap space move or another star or something minor like Sessions. something. as long as it doesn't hurt our team obviously.

I hope I get some work done. I'll be too busy watching twitter and reading rumors.

Part XII is going to be a doozy

Can't wait.

[rcklsscognition]

JJ on ESPN radio said he wanted to be in the 3pt contest and had his agent request he be invited. JJ said NBA wanted bigger named players. In closing, he said, "but I don't know how much Joe Johnson will be able to do with his injury."

I hope Joe sits out the contest and JJ is given the spot.

[OrlandO]

I hope Joe sits out the contest and JJ is given the spot.

Would be an upset if Johnson sits out and JJ doesn't get the nod. Johnson's not goign to play in the next two games, so I think chances are good he won't participate in the allstar game or 3pt contest either (how bad would that look to Hawks fans?).

[The Real Dalic]

JJ on ESPN radio said he wanted to be in the 3pt contest and had his agent request he be invited. JJ said NBA wanted bigger named players. In closing, he said, "but I don't know how much Joe Johnson will be able to do with his injury."

I hope Joe sits out the contest and JJ is given the spot.

Me too. but, that's ridiculous. no one wants to watch players like LeBron James, or Joe Johnson, or Dwyane Wade, in the 3pt contest... we want to watch the best of the best 3pt shooters. JJ is one of them.

[The Real Dalic]

I hope Joe sits out the contest and JJ is given the spot.

Would be an upset if Johnson sits out and JJ doesn't get the nod. Johnson's not goign to play in the next two games, so I think chances are good he won't participate in the allstar game or 3pt contest either (how bad would that look to Hawks fans?).

Maybe Smith gets invited to the All-Star game in his place. he definitely deserves it more than Joe....

[rcklsscognition]

I hope Joe sits out the contest and JJ is given the spot.

Would be an upset if Johnson sits out and JJ doesn't get the nod. Johnson's not goign to play in the next two games, so I think chances are good he won't participate in the allstar game or 3pt contest either (how bad would that look to Hawks fans?).

Maybe Smith gets invited to the All-Star game in his place. he definitely deserves it more than Joe....

Perfect scenario is Josh Smith goes for the Sunday game and JJ takes his place in 3pt contest.

[darthmerrick]

Mar. 16: Call it karma or fate, whatever. But if Howard is traded to New Jersey, guess what? The Magic’s first game after the trade deadline is against…. the Nets. How cruel. It could be Howard’s first game against his former team — and at Amway Center, of all places. You couldn’t make this stuff up. Magic boo-birds surely would let him have it, a night that might require extra security at the arena. Imagine Bynum wearing a Magic jersey. Or Howard could still be with the Magic, meaning he could be playing out the string until he becomes a free agent, possibly leaving the Magic with no compensation.

Awesome.

Currently the Nets sit 6 games back of the Celtics for the eight spot. By the time the March 15th deadline hits...we'll be 2/3 through the NBA season. Orlando will be a virtual lock to make the playoffs. New Jersey with Dwight will have only 22 games to make up 10+ games on Boston or New York and they aren't going to go 22-0. Put simply if Dwight gets traded to NJ at the deadline, he will not be in the playoffs this year and will be at home watching Brook Lopez and Marshon Brooks leading his Magic into the playoffs. The only good news of moving Dwight at the deadline.

Another thing to add because I keep seeing people including draft picks in trades. Please correct me if the CBA changed this but I remember it as such A team cannot trade away it's 1st round draft pick two years in a row.
Orlando traded it's 1st rounder last year in the Jason Richardson trade. We cannot move our 2012 1st round pick for Ellis or Sessions or whoever. NJ traded their 1st round pick for Deron Williams last year...so we cannot get their 2012 first round pick from them. They do own Houston pick but I believe its lottery protected.

[OrlandO]

Who else wanted to be in the 3pt contest, but got snubbed like JJ?? I imagine Brandon Rush wants in and he's hitting at the highest percentage this year.

[The Real Dalic]

Who else wanted to be in the 3pt contest, but got snubbed like JJ?? I imagine Brandon Rush wants in and he's hitting at the highest percentage this year.

He's another guy that deserved to be in there. my list would've been:

Anderson
Redick
Chalmers
Rush
Meeks
Allen

[eyriq]

darthmerrick, good catch. Trade deadline is going to be a doozy. Otis will have some very tough decisions to make.

For starters, how do you evaluate this team? 6th in the East in MOV, but 4th in their last ten games. 3rd seed, but 4.5 games out of 1st. Top eight in 4/8 four factors, including 3/4 on the defensive end, but with the overall 5th offense and the 8th defense in the East.

Hedo and Nelson, besides providing sparks or otherwise clutch play at times, are hurting the offense; Hedo 99 ORtg on 20.9% usage, Nelson 98 ORtg on 18.9% usage. Does he see either of them making a JRich'esque turnaround? What about our bench, which is equally god awful?

And then there is Stan. Stan has the DPOY and a bunch of shooters, offensive guys that should theoretically give Orlando that elite balance of offense/defense. But instead, we are consistently terrific on defense but progressively worse on offense. Something isn't working. Otis has placed elite shooting on this team with no defensive help at all for Dwight, yet Stan isn't getting much offense out of them. There is a disconnect that needs to be addressed.

[Def Swami]

darthmerrick, good catch. Trade deadline is going to be a doozy. Otis will have some very tough decisions to make.

For starters, how do you evaluate this team? 6th in the East in MOV, but 4th in their last ten games. 3rd seed, but 4.5 games out of 1st. Top eight in 4/8 four factors, including 3/4 on the defensive end, but with the overall 5th offense and the 8th defense in the East.

Hedo and Nelson, besides providing sparks or otherwise clutch play at times, are hurting the offense; Hedo 99 ORtg on 20.9% usage, Nelson 98 ORtg on 18.9% usage. Does he see either of them making a JRich'esque turnaround? What about our bench, which is equally god awful?

And then there is Stan. Stan has the DPOY and a bunch of shooters, offensive guys that should theoretically give Orlando that elite balance of offense/defense. But instead, we are consistently terrific on defense but progressively worse on offense. Something isn't working. Otis has placed elite shooting on this team with no defensive help at all for Dwight, yet Stan isn't getting much offense out of them. There is a disconnect that needs to be addressed.

All great points. I think the Magic absolutely have to view it like this:

Our ceiling this season is the 3rd seed, which is very attainable. We'll win a lot of regular season games. And the team could very well get past the first round. But as constructed, can this team beat the Bulls or Heat in the 2nd round? That seems highly unlikely. Unless we have a team that is capable of competing with the Bulls or Heat, Dwight will walk. So unless Otis can swing a deal that significantly propels the Magic into the upper echelon of the East, he'll most certainly have to look at trading Dwight. There's no point in running through an entire season to lose in the 2nd round and lose the franchise player for nothing. But if we had the team capable of beating the Bulls or Heat, and we still lose in the 2nd round, I think the Magic can live with that knowing that they can sell a future of winning here to Dwight.

The narrative still remains, improve the team first. If you can't do that, then trade Dwight and let's start over.

[rcklsscognition]

darthmerrick, good catch. Trade deadline is going to be a doozy. Otis will have some very tough decisions to make.

For starters, how do you evaluate this team? 6th in the East in MOV, but 4th in their last ten games. 3rd seed, but 4.5 games out of 1st. Top eight in 4/8 four factors, including 3/4 on the defensive end, but with the overall 5th offense and the 8th defense in the East.

Hedo and Nelson, besides providing sparks or otherwise clutch play at times, are hurting the offense; Hedo 99 ORtg on 20.9% usage, Nelson 98 ORtg on 18.9% usage. Does he see either of them making a JRich'esque turnaround? What about our bench, which is equally god awful?

And then there is Stan. Stan has the DPOY and a bunch of shooters, offensive guys that should theoretically give Orlando that elite balance of offense/defense. But instead, we are consistently terrific on defense but progressively worse on offense. Something isn't working. Otis has placed elite shooting on this team with no defensive help at all for Dwight, yet Stan isn't getting much offense out of them. There is a disconnect that needs to be addressed.

All great points. I think the Magic absolutely have to view it like this:

Our ceiling this season is the 3rd seed, which is very attainable. We'll win a lot of regular season games. And the team could very well get past the first round. But as constructed, can this team beat the Bulls or Heat in the 2nd round? That seems highly unlikely. Unless we have a team that is capable of competing with the Bulls or Heat, Dwight will walk. So unless Otis can swing a deal that significantly propels the Magic into the upper echelon of the East, he'll most certainly have to look at trading Dwight. There's no point in running through an entire season to lose in the 2nd round and lose the franchise player for nothing. But if we had the team capable of beating the Bulls or Heat, and we still lose in the 2nd round, I think the Magic can live with that knowing that they can sell a future of winning here to Dwight.

The narrative still remains, improve the team first. If you can't do that, then trade Dwight and let's start over.

How far away are we from competing against the Bulls/Heat? If those are the two teams we need to beat, how can we change our roster to beat them without sacrificing our ability to reach playing them in the ECF or 2nd round?

[Blue_and_Whte]

darthmerrick, good catch. Trade deadline is going to be a doozy. Otis will have some very tough decisions to make.

For starters, how do you evaluate this team? 6th in the East in MOV, but 4th in their last ten games. 3rd seed, but 4.5 games out of 1st. Top eight in 4/8 four factors, including 3/4 on the defensive end, but with the overall 5th offense and the 8th defense in the East.

Hedo and Nelson, besides providing sparks or otherwise clutch play at times, are hurting the offense; Hedo 99 ORtg on 20.9% usage, Nelson 98 ORtg on 18.9% usage. Does he see either of them making a JRich'esque turnaround? What about our bench, which is equally god awful?

And then there is Stan. Stan has the DPOY and a bunch of shooters, offensive guys that should theoretically give Orlando that elite balance of offense/defense. But instead, we are consistently terrific on defense but progressively worse on offense. Something isn't working. Otis has placed elite shooting on this team with no defensive help at all for Dwight, yet Stan isn't getting much offense out of them. There is a disconnect that needs to be addressed.

All great points. I think the Magic absolutely have to view it like this:

Our ceiling this season is the 3rd seed, which is very attainable. We'll win a lot of regular season games. And the team could very well get past the first round. But as constructed, can this team beat the Bulls or Heat in the 2nd round? That seems highly unlikely. Unless we have a team that is capable of competing with the Bulls or Heat, Dwight will walk. So unless Otis can swing a deal that significantly propels the Magic into the upper echelon of the East, he'll most certainly have to look at trading Dwight. There's no point in running through an entire season to lose in the 2nd round and lose the franchise player for nothing. But if we had the team capable of beating the Bulls or Heat, and we still lose in the 2nd round, I think the Magic can live with that knowing that they can sell a future of winning here to Dwight.

The narrative still remains, improve the team first. If you can't do that, then trade Dwight and let's start over.

+1..Pretty mch sums it up. People keep saying "You dont trade a player of Dwights caliber" well you also cant be held hostage and not try to get something in return to build around. I dont think that's whats best for the team. If trading him is the way they need to go then I hope it's Lopez and not glass knees, poor man's dwight, no offensive game, bynum.

[j_n]

Another thing to add because I keep seeing people including draft picks in trades. Please correct me if the CBA changed this but I remember it as such A team cannot trade away it's 1st round draft pick two years in a row.
Orlando traded it's 1st rounder last year in the Jason Richardson trade. We cannot move our 2012 1st round pick for Ellis or Sessions or whoever. NJ traded their 1st round pick for Deron Williams last year...so we cannot get their 2012 first round pick from them. They do own Houston pick but I believe its lottery protected.

Teams cant trade its own two future first round picks in a row.
Since the nets and magic already traded their first round picks in the 2011 draft and that draft is already finished they can go ahead and trade their own 2012 first round picks.

As long as you wait for the draft to end you can trade 10 first round picks in a row, you just cant create a situation that in a future 2 consecutive drafts your team wont have its own first round pick.

I hope I was clear.

[Reverse_Angle]

why you keep insisting that bynum has no offensive game? that is the only edge the guy has.

[Def Swami]

darthmerrick, good catch. Trade deadline is going to be a doozy. Otis will have some very tough decisions to make.

For starters, how do you evaluate this team? 6th in the East in MOV, but 4th in their last ten games. 3rd seed, but 4.5 games out of 1st. Top eight in 4/8 four factors, including 3/4 on the defensive end, but with the overall 5th offense and the 8th defense in the East.

Hedo and Nelson, besides providing sparks or otherwise clutch play at times, are hurting the offense; Hedo 99 ORtg on 20.9% usage, Nelson 98 ORtg on 18.9% usage. Does he see either of them making a JRich'esque turnaround? What about our bench, which is equally god awful?

And then there is Stan. Stan has the DPOY and a bunch of shooters, offensive guys that should theoretically give Orlando that elite balance of offense/defense. But instead, we are consistently terrific on defense but progressively worse on offense. Something isn't working. Otis has placed elite shooting on this team with no defensive help at all for Dwight, yet Stan isn't getting much offense out of them. There is a disconnect that needs to be addressed.

All great points. I think the Magic absolutely have to view it like this:

Our ceiling this season is the 3rd seed, which is very attainable. We'll win a lot of regular season games. And the team could very well get past the first round. But as constructed, can this team beat the Bulls or Heat in the 2nd round? That seems highly unlikely. Unless we have a team that is capable of competing with the Bulls or Heat, Dwight will walk. So unless Otis can swing a deal that significantly propels the Magic into the upper echelon of the East, he'll most certainly have to look at trading Dwight. There's no point in running through an entire season to lose in the 2nd round and lose the franchise player for nothing. But if we had the team capable of beating the Bulls or Heat, and we still lose in the 2nd round, I think the Magic can live with that knowing that they can sell a future of winning here to Dwight.

The narrative still remains, improve the team first. If you can't do that, then trade Dwight and let's start over.

How far away are we from competing against the Bulls/Heat? If those are the two teams we need to beat, how can we change our roster to beat them without sacrificing our ability to reach playing them in the ECF or 2nd round?

I don't think we're far. But we lack diversity on offense. We don't have anyone that can get a mid-range jumpshot or consistently attack the rim or get to the free throw line. We'll get killed every year in the playoffs for that reason alone. If our 3's aren't falling, we're going to struggle bad. The Hawks simply just closed out on all 3 point shooters last year and they had the athleticism to do it. It's cool to have a 3 point arsenal, but when that's all we have it's just setting us up for post-season failure. No way a team continues to let us shoot 3's for 4 out of 7 games. We need creators to take pressure off of Dwight.

And your 2nd question is the trickiest part of the whole situation. Do you gut your roster for a guy like Monta? IMO, I say that you do. We're not getting past the Bulls or Heat with this roster. But acquiring a guy like Monta gives you a fighter's chance this year, and then a greater ability going forward (granted Dwight stays). Once you have a great 1-2 punch, you can always build around it. The Nets with Dwight might be mediocre at first, but having a great wing player and a great center as your cornerstones makes it very easy to build around. The Knicks have done an excellent job (had some luck with Lin too) and the Clippers have done great with that model too. It wouldn't take a whole lot to make the Magic a contender with the acquisition of one great wing player.

The way this team is constructed is flawed. Regardless of whether Dwight chooses to stay or leave, we have to trade some players to get players that fulfill more roles than shooting. We need lock down defenders, rebounders, shot blockers, guys who can get to the rim, in addition to spot-up shooters.

[Rccanes2311]

+1..Pretty mch sums it up. People keep saying "You dont trade a player of Dwights caliber" well you also cant be held hostage and not try to get something in return to build around. I dont think that's whats best for the team. If trading him is the way they need to go then I hope it's Lopez and not glass knees, poor man's dwight, no offensive game, bynum.

I've said this once and I'll say it again there is no way you watch very much basketball, and when you watch the Magic you have extremely bias glasses on. How in gods name can you say Bynum has no offensive game? If Howard had Bynum's offensive game he'd average 25 or more a night.

[OrlandO]

Bynum would be getting *nearly* the same numbers as Dwight if he was on this team - 20+pts 14rebs 2blks. He's not getting those exact numbers on the Lakers (16/13/2) because Kobe takes 24 shots a game and 7' Gasol is next to him taking possessions and grabbing double digit rebounds as well. I'm not saying he's as dangerous or dominant as Dwight, but he can match his stats in scoring, rebounding and blocks. I would much rather have Bynum than lame Lopez. I just hope if we have to trade Dwight to the Lakers, that we can get them to throw in Gasol as well.