The Lebron Thread

[sijose]

i think lebron's athleticism is declining bt at the same time, looking at the stats, i don't think it's as bad as some people are saying. he takes 6.7 shots at the rim a game and makes 77% of them with 48% of his makes ,a career high being assisted. If yo look at the league leaders and yo factor in shots taken by other players, and the stats say he is still the best finisher in the league. from 16-23 feet he's been terrible making just 39% of his shots; while also attempting a career high from there, proving that he is settling for more jump shots and making less because he is not conformable shooting the mid range jumper. Overall he is getting assisted on 38% percent of his makes, a career high. using the eye test it does seem like he has lost a great deal of his athleticism but that is just a testament to just how freakish he used to be so i don't think this is a big deal as long as he is hitting those 16-23 foot jumpers at a 45-50% clip. he did that last season so i think he will be fine, especially as long as he continues to develop his post game at that point it wouldn't matter how much athleticism he loses in the long run; he just needs to gain more confidence in his jump shot and he will win plenty of rings in Miami.

[sijose]

oh and i can understand why some people think your talking bs because IG2 and to a certain degree Slideshow Bob are talking like lebron is a bad player like because he isn't the same super freak player that e used to be that all of a sudden he sucks, he is still the best player in the nba and quite frankly the gap between him and the second best play, say wade or Durant is huge. this is true especially if you ignore the fourth quarter where at that point his dominance is reminiscent of the gap between Jordan and everybody else in the 90s.think I mean if you look at the per rankings lebron has a 32.9 per, the next highest player, Wade has a 26.98 that's a gap of nearly six points; the difference between wade's per and gasol's per. i mean yes he fourth quarter matters but because lebron is so dominant throughout the first three quarters it almost seems like the forth quarter doesn't matter.

[SideshowBob]

Nothing promising tonight. He was invisible for most of the game on offense. He's almost stopped taking two point jumpshots almost altogether

[IG2]

That was a depressing game to watch.

He's officially not even as good as last season. With sub-39% shooting from 16-23 feet(worst in 4 years), how the hell can he be? His entire offense either comes in transition or via cuts to the basket. He's not even bothering to take 2pt jumpers anymore. His shot creation has basically come to a HALT. He knows he can't do it, so he won't even try. Can you imagine this guy on those Cleveland teams under Mike Brown? FUGLY. Thank the LORD he took his talents to South Beach.

[SideshowBob]

That was a depressing game to watch.

He's officially not even as good as last season. With sub-39% shooting from 16-23 feet(worst in 4 years), how the hell can he be? His entire offense either comes in transition or via cuts to the basket. He's not even bothering to take 2pt jumpers anymore. His shot creation has basically come to a HALT. He knows he can't do it, so he won't even try. Can you imagine this guy on those Cleveland teams under Mike Brown? FUGLY. Thank the LORD he took his talents to South Beach.

I'm not losing hope that easily. He started last season shooting 34% from 16-23 feet and was only at 38% prior to the all star break. I still think he'll get it going from outside once he works out the kinks with this adjusted form

[Rerisen]

Nothing promising tonight. He was invisible for most of the game on offense. He's almost stopped taking two point jumpshots almost altogether

LeBron doesn't need to go for 40 every night for the Heat to win.

How is 18, 8, 4, and 2 blocks on 64% shooting a bad night.

He's taking 6.1 jumpers a game from 16-23, at 39%. Up from last year in exchange for less threes. That he can still have efficient nights just getting at rim stuff and free throws, is not a bad thing.

[SideshowBob]

Nothing promising tonight. He was invisible for most of the game on offense. He's almost stopped taking two point jumpshots almost altogether

LeBron doesn't need to go for 40 every night for the Heat to win.

How is 18, 8, 4, and 2 blocks on 64% shooting a bad night.

He doesn't, and it's not. But the fact that he lacks the ability to score at will is not encouraging. Every time the Kings (THE KINGS!!!) made their run, he just stood in the corner, and did nothing except for spot up. He just can't grab the game by the balls and take it over anymore, and has to wait for Wade to do something because Wade still has the ability to create high percentage shots for himself in the halfcourt.

If this was a one game thing, or even a taking turns thing, it would be fine. But we've been seeing this from him now for the last two seasons. He just can't take over the game on the offensive end by "trying harder," something Wade can do, something Durant can do, something Rose can do, and something he was the absolute best at in Cleveland.

[IG2]

Do you think LeBron is still the best player in the NBA, SideshowBob?

The thing that annoys me about the LeBron-is-best argument is, NOBODY would consider this guy the league's best player if he played on your average NBA team. A team where he would be required to take a lot of shots, where he would constantly have to create in the half-court, where he would be involved in a lot of close games - all of LeBron's shortcomings would be so blatantly out in the open in this scenario that NOBODY would consider him the best. He simply wouldn't have the numbers for one and two, his team would lose a lot more. But since he's fortunate enough to play on a LOADED team, we should simply ignore his limitations?

He just can't take over the game on the offensive end by "trying harder," something Wade can do, something Durant can do, something Rose can do, and something he was the absolute best at in Cleveland.

Exactly how I feel, which is why I considered them better than LeBron last season too. People can laugh, but the way I see it, ability to take over games on command(or having the GAME to at least try) is the single most important talent in basketball, and LeBron's highly lacking in that category. That's why he isn't the best. I was watching Bulls-Hawks yesterday afternoon where Bulls held a healthy lead for much of the night, but Atlanta made the game somewhat competitive mid-4th qtr, and Rose's sudden change in approach was something to behold. Up till that point, he was mostly chilling. Once the game got somewhat close though, it was one savage drive to the basket after another. He was penetrating and creating like no tomorrow. And all he had to do to accomplish that was TRY HARDER. All superstars have these higher gears. LeBron doesn't. He only has 1. That is why he continues to be a spectator during large portions of the game.

[SideshowBob]

Do you think LeBron is still the best player in the NBA, SideshowBob?

I'm having difficulty making up my mind about it right now. I think if forced into the kind of situation you mention, where he's playing on a mediocre team, he'd be forced to rely on that jumpshot a lot more, and though he wouldn't be nearly as efficient as he is right now (or has been in the past) I think he could maintain decent scoring numbers. Then he's got the other parts of his game, though I can't deny that his overall playmaking ability has diminished because of his inability to drive and dish on a consistent basis. On the flipside, I think he's always been an underrated defender (basically a poor man's KG) and that he'd still have monster impact on that end.

I'll give him some time to sway my mind. What I saw from him in the first two or so weeks of the season was impressive, and everything since has been a disappointment. I haven't seen an attempt to incorporate further offensive diversity in his scoring arsenal, and I don't see the half court mobility, nor the quickness necessary for him to dominate teams with drives to the basket. At this point, I'm holding on to the hope that he's coasting because of the condensed schedule, and that he'll be able to turn it up in the postseason. But that's dwindling at this point too.

[kabstah]

He just can't take over the game on the offensive end by "trying harder," something Wade can do, something Durant can do, something Rose can do, and something he was the absolute best at in Cleveland.

I'm just going to do the numbers for Lebron/KD, because Wade and Rose have been injured for large portions of the season.

Synergy Sports says:

Lebron scores 1.08 points per play, shooting 318/582 overall, 879 points on 814 plays
...subtract his transition stats of 1.4 points per play, shooting 81/107, 228 points on 163 plays
...and you get half court stats of 651 points on 651 plays for 1.0 points per play shooting 237/475

Do the same for KD and it comes out to 1.02 points per play in the half court, shooting 263/539

So for all the doom and gloom about Lebron's half court scoring, in terms of real numbers he scores about a point less than Durant every other game in the half court offense.

Furthermore, there's also been much bellyaching about Lebron's inability to get to the rim.
Hoopdata says Lebron attempts 6.7 FGA at the rim per game over 31 games (tonight's not included) for a total of 208. Synergy tells us that Lebron attempted 107 shots in transition, 6 of which were 3 pointers. Even if we assume that each and every one of the 101 other shots were dunks and layups that still leaves at absolute minimum 107 attempts at the rim coming from the half court, about 3.45 per game -- marginally higher than Durant who clocks in at 3.125.

Finally, Lebron is shooting 78/101 in transition, not including his 3 pointers, for an average of 77.2%. His overall finishing % at the rim? 77.8% for the season. That means his at the rim finishing percentage is actually better when NOT in transition.

The upshot: Relying on the eyeball test and not doing the research leads to silly conclusions.

[SideshowBob]

Snip

I posted this same breakdown a few weeks back in this very thread, however I took it a step further and also took out attempts at the rim off of offensive rebounds, and cuts to the basket. At the time, the number of attempts at the rim for Lebron per game was 1.7.

I'll admit that I do not have the synergy numbers from the seasons past to compare this to, and therefore, I cannot make any conclusive statements. But I hold much certainty in saying that this number is far lower than what he was able to do in Cleveland. I also maintain that this is the reason he has been struggling late in games, and not because he is a so called "choker."

FWIW, I'll redo my earlier analysis right now and post the updated number.

[kabstah]

How are you determining attempts at the rim off of offensive rebounds? Are you just assuming that all 25 attempts came at the rim? That'll still leave him at 2.5 - 2.6 attempts per game while raising his conversion % even higher.

And I'm not sure why you would even exclude cuts to the basket in the first place.

[SideshowBob]

Because I'm referring to his ability to beat his man off the dribble. A cut to the basket isn't something that's going to be available to him when he's on the ball, that just doesn't make sense. He doesn't have the ability to simply blow by his man, get to the basket and explode for the finish. The only time he's able to do so is when he has a completely open lane.

There's been plenty of video evidence in here that demonstrates how mobile he was on the ball even in his last years in Cleveland, as well as how explosive, and that just isn't the case now.

**As for the offensive rebounds, if I had access to the full Synergy package, I could go through each field goal attempt and verify which ones were at the rim and which ones weren't. As it currently stands, I cannot do that.

[SideshowBob]

So, after rerunning the numbers, and including tonight's game, here is what I've got.

213 attempts at the rim, 166 made field goals, for 77.9%.
101 "non 3 point" attempts in transition, 78 "non 3 point" field goals made, 77.2%.
34 of 45 field goals off of cuts to the basket, 75.6%.
14 of 25 field goals made off of offensive rebounds, 56.0%
40 of 42 on all other attempts "at the rim" which doesn't include any attempts off of what Synergy considers "post-up" plays, 95.2%

So we're at approximately 1.3 drives to the basket per game (likely lower if I had access to all of the post up plays) that led to attempts at the rim. Of his 580 FGA this season, about 42 of them were drives that resulted in shot attempts at the basket, a measley 7%. For the guy who's greatest talent is supposedly to get to the rim "at will" isn't this a bit alarming? Especially if he can convert at that rate, why not do it more frequently?

For comparisons sake, here's Rose's numbers, because he's the guy that Lebron used to be most similar to in terms of how he approached the game from a scoring perspective in the half court

140 attempts at the rim, 88 made field goals, for 62.9%.
53 "non 3 point" attempts in transition, 29 "non 3 point" field goals made, 54.7%.
5 of 5 field goals off of cuts to the basket, 100%%.
2 of 2 field goals made off of offensive rebounds, 100%.
52 of 80 on all other attempts "at the rim", 65%

So Rose is at 3.33 at rim attempts off drivess per game, and with 80 attempts on 412 FGA. These attempts compose of 19.4% of his total FGA

Once again, I need the data from at least the 2009-2010 season, and without that, I certainly can't be absolutely conclusive with this

[Rerisen]

He doesn't, and it's not. But the fact that he lacks the ability to score at will is not encouraging. Every time the Kings (THE KINGS!!!) made their run, he just stood in the corner, and did nothing except for spot up. He just can't grab the game by the balls and take it over anymore, and has to wait for Wade to do something because Wade still has the ability to create high percentage shots for himself in the halfcourt.

If this was a one game thing, or even a taking turns thing, it would be fine. But we've been seeing this from him now for the last two seasons. He just can't take over the game on the offensive end by "trying harder," something Wade can do, something Durant can do, something Rose can do, and something he was the absolute best at in Cleveland.

You present this as something of a late game dilemma. What will Lebron do when defenses tighten up. Look to Wade. Yet this year, Wade has been a first half hero, second half zero.

LeBron... he produces the same.

Wade's 1st-half PER: 36.3
Wade's 2nd-half PER:16.5

This is an astounding split. To put this in perspective, the difference between his first-half PER and second-half PER is minus-19.8. No one has come close to posting a difference of that magnitude this season. Only two players in the NBA (Luis Scola and Brendan Haywood) have posted a difference above minus-9 ... and Wade's at minus-19.8. He's in a world of his own.

If you're curious about his basic numbers on a per-game basis:

Wade's 1st-half line: 14.3 pts, 3.1 ast, 2.5 rebs, 16.7 mins on 56 percent shooting.
Wade's 2nd-half line: 7.7 pts, 1.5 ast, 1.8 rebs, 15.0 mins on 42 percent shooting.

Fans normally imagine Wade as a dominant force in crunchtime, but this season, it's been quite the opposite. If anything, he has been a something of a first-half closer, as if he's delivering a knockout punch in the early rounds of a boxing ring.

Some might look at the massive split and emphasize the drop-off part of the equation, which is fair and understandable. For the Heat, it is slightly unnerving to know that Wade has been just a tick above an average player after halftime. But in the first half? No one has been better. For reference, what are LeBron James' splits in the first and second half? 32.8 and 33.2. Like a metronome. ESPN

[SideshowBob]

He doesn't, and it's not. But the fact that he lacks the ability to score at will is not encouraging. Every time the Kings (THE KINGS!!!) made their run, he just stood in the corner, and did nothing except for spot up. He just can't grab the game by the balls and take it over anymore, and has to wait for Wade to do something because Wade still has the ability to create high percentage shots for himself in the halfcourt.

If this was a one game thing, or even a taking turns thing, it would be fine. But we've been seeing this from him now for the last two seasons. He just can't take over the game on the offensive end by "trying harder," something Wade can do, something Durant can do, something Rose can do, and something he was the absolute best at in Cleveland.

You present this as something of a late game dilemma. What will Lebron do when defenses tighten up. Look to Wade. Yet this year, Wade has been a first half hero, second half zero.

LeBron... he produces the same.

Wade's 1st-half PER: 36.3
Wade's 2nd-half PER:16.5

This is an astounding split. To put this in perspective, the difference between his first-half PER and second-half PER is minus-19.8. No one has come close to posting a difference of that magnitude this season. Only two players in the NBA (Luis Scola and Brendan Haywood) have posted a difference above minus-9 ... and Wade's at minus-19.8. He's in a world of his own.

If you're curious about his basic numbers on a per-game basis:

Wade's 1st-half line: 14.3 pts, 3.1 ast, 2.5 rebs, 16.7 mins on 56 percent shooting.
Wade's 2nd-half line: 7.7 pts, 1.5 ast, 1.8 rebs, 15.0 mins on 42 percent shooting.

Fans normally imagine Wade as a dominant force in crunchtime, but this season, it's been quite the opposite. If anything, he has been a something of a first-half closer, as if he's delivering a knockout punch in the early rounds of a boxing ring.

Some might look at the massive split and emphasize the drop-off part of the equation, which is fair and understandable. For the Heat, it is slightly unnerving to know that Wade has been just a tick above an average player after halftime. But in the first half? No one has been better. For reference, what are LeBron James' splits in the first and second half? 32.8 and 33.2. Like a metronome. ESPN

True. I'm not going to dispute that. But the only guy I'm trying to compare him to is himself. I'd like to see these same numbers from 2009 and 2010. I can't be 100% certain, but I'd wager that we'd see Lebron's PER be lower in the first half (mid to high 20s) and higher in the second half (high 30s).

The only way for me to be able to determine that would be to go through the 157 games worth of play-by-play data.

Also, I'd much rather rely on quarterly splits than splits by half

[IG2]

40 of 42 on all other attempts "at the rim" which doesn't include any attempts off of what Synergy considers "post-up" plays, 95.2%

I wonder what they constitute as an 'at the rim' play? Because if it's truly layup/dunk attempts at the rim, then there's no way this stat can be right. LeBron's missed a heck of a lot more than just 2 shots on plays CREATED by himself around the basket.

[SideshowBob]

40 of 42 on all other attempts "at the rim" which doesn't include any attempts off of what Synergy considers "post-up" plays, 95.2%

I wonder what they constitute as an 'at the rim' play? Because if it's truly layup/dunk attempts at the rim, then there's no way this stat can be right. LeBron's missed a heck of a lot more than just 2 shots on plays CREATED by himself around the basket.

Yeah that's certainly going to be an issue when using two separate sources.

Also, this isn't factoring in free throws either

[kabstah]

Because I'm referring to his ability to beat his man off the dribble. A cut to the basket isn't something that's going to be available to him when he's on the ball, that just doesn't make sense. He doesn't have the ability to simply blow by his man, get to the basket and explode for the finish. The only time he's able to do so is when he has a completely open lane.

There's been plenty of video evidence in here that demonstrates how mobile he was on the ball even in his last years in Cleveland, as well as how explosive, and that just isn't the case now.

**As for the offensive rebounds, if I had access to the full Synergy package, I could go through each field goal attempt and verify which ones were at the rim and which ones weren't. As it currently stands, I cannot do that.

When I quoted you, you were referring to Lebron's half court scoring in general, not specifically his drives to the basket. In that context it doesn't make sense to exclude his cuts to the basket or post ups because he's still doing it within the half court. Is he less capable of driving past his man from the 3 point line? I don't know, and quite frankly, I don't care. As long as he's still getting to the rim and finishing, points are points regardless of how he gets them.

[parapooper]

LeBron driving less could just be due to playing with Wade who is great at that but sucks at shooting. So defenses adjust accordingly. Wade can't space the court for LeBron while LeBron can for Wade so it only makes sense Wade is driving to the basket more.
In Cleveland LeBron always had good shooters on the floor with him, now he has Wade. I'd like to see more James Jones.
I also don't know why Spoelstra does not always have either Wade or LeBron on the floor. It's been established they curtail each others production but Spoelstra plays them mostly together and always finds time to have Bosh alone on the floor even though he plays great with just one of them.
That just seems borderline (Please Use More Appropriate Word) to me.