2012 NBA Draft - Part II

[nate33]

Link from the previous thread

[doclinkin]

I like Barnes alright and he fits a need, but it seems to me he brings a skillset that is more easily replicated by players lower down in the draft, or acquired by other means. MKG burns hotter, even if his particular skills aren't the best fit with what we need.

The more I look at it, the more get the feel that a player like Thomas Robinson would be the right pick for this squad (with the understanding that we likely ain't getting Unibrow Davis) when we inevitably slide down the lotto ranking.

TRob's energy, maturity, moxie, toughness, activity and motor would add seriousness of purpose to this squad. Equally important his game shows good synergy with what our squad needs. TRob is a true PF in the classic mold, a discount Karl Malone. He's got reliable shooting to midrange & the college three line, allowing room underneath for JaVale to get loose as well as opening up driving and passing lanes for John Wall.

On the interior his outstanding defensive rebounding, on-ball activity, and brickwall strength shore up the highlight reel awe factor of a hypertalent like JaVale. In the offensive paint his no-frills high percentage power scoring allow the team to score basic bailout buckets even when challenged.

More importantly, and this is key in understanding his late emergence hidden behind Kief and Cus Morris. He displays the classic learning curve of a player who improves every year, suggestive that he will continue to hone his game in the pros. As a freshman he posted a sub 40% free throw percentage, after steady improvement he now flirts with 70%. His fouls per 40 have cut in half from 7 to 3.5. His passing metrics have improved despite his possession percentage jumping from 9% to 24% of team total possessions.

And all this without reference to being a local kid with ties to the area, or his remarkable backstory. Just seems to me we might get lucky even if the pingpong balls misbehave and TRob is the best available player that falls to us. I'd take him and count ourselves lucky. Every year we pass up players who can rebound the ball and use the basic toolkit. Tired of flash and potential, I want a player who understand the game is as simple as sticking the gottamn ball in the basket, damn simple, and get it done.

[DallasShalDune]

Barnes and Rivers scare me with their 1-sided play and bust potential. I could be wrong, but I'm rooting for us not to draft them.

I want to stay light years away from Perry. He's already a bust.

[Dat2U]

Robinson has definitely grown on me. I'm starting to think he's one the safest picks in the draft. His rebound % is over 20. He's incredibly active. He finishes strongly around the cup. And we definitely need guys with a high motor. He should be a double/double waiting to happen. I feel much more confident about Robinson than I do Sullinger, Barnes or PJ III.

I've penciled in Robinson to 3rd on my wish list behind Davis & MKG. I'd be quite content with a top 3 pick at this point.

Beyond that top 3, the rest of lottery is a complete clusterf*ck. I don't even know what to think.

Bradley Beal is starting to rise in my eyes. I'm beginning to think he's the best SG available. I like him over Lamb (overrated in my eyes, especially here) and over the flashier Austin Rivers.

[WizarDynasty]

i understand people getting excited by the draft but all of these players are projects and no one in the top five looks like a sure fire allstar--or even a starter. Can we trade this pick for a bonafide nba starter the way that Boston did when they got ray allen.

Clearly ernie needs to be fired for not being able to at least get us an old veteran starter with the fifth overall pick the way boston did when they got ray allen. you don't trade with a perenial loosing squad and get their starters, you trade for a perennial starter on a playoff team at the bare minimum.
I see the formula as the wizards needing three all stars to make it deep in the playoffs. We have wall, how do we get the other two allstars...will they come from this draft?

[The Consiglieri]

McGee clearly has all star potential. He's also a nit-wit. I wouldn't trade the pick for a vet, I wouldn't see the point, we've done that before and it's never panned out in my eyes. I don't like it, it's short sighted, especially for a terrible team, and I think it's selling the players short to imagine they aren't all stars or even starters. MKG has all star potential, there are plenty of guys that love Barnes, Robinson is seen as a real talent, Drummond has elite everything except mental make up seemingly, Davis is fantastic, Beal has loads of potential and there's more. This draft in my eyes is deep, it may not be filled with cream, but it has a lot of legit players.

And for the record, even though I'd hate getting Barnes, i dont think for a second he's a bust, I just think he'll be a solid to above average player, which for me, isnt good enough for #2.

[TheBigThree]

I don't see MKG over Barnes for this team specifically. I really think Barnes, despite being slightly underwhelming, fits exactly what this team needs. My top 3 right now (for the Wizards) would be Davis, Barnes, Robinson. I'd be very happy with any of those 3. Wouldn't be angry over basically anyone but Drummond or Jones that are projected top 10 at the moment.

[Knighthonor]

I don't know about Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. He don't seem like 3 point shooter which the wizards need

[hands11]

Bradley Beal or Thomas Robinson

I am anti Kentucky and NC right now.

The way I see it, this team got its young top draft pick with Wall. This team is so rudderless right now. What they really need to do first is add established vet star power so any future draft picks have an actually team to develop with.

Blind leading the blind is not going to work.

They need to add some Batum, Frye, Melo, etc type talent so they have something established to grow.

Right now, Beal is still the player I want the most out of the top picks. The kid added some muscle and looked to have an NBA ready body. And from the interview I saw of him, I really like his maturity.



Very impressive interview. Sound like he wants to grow more so he can be a SG/SF
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3IDrxF2iXOw&feature=player_embedded[/youtube]

[Knighthonor]

Ok as for this Harrison Barnes dude
What is his shooting percentage?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tI3cDCcu ... ata_player

Wizards need another shooter. Can't rely on Nick any longer. And Wall can't shoot.

[Knighthonor]

Bradley Beal or Thomas Robinson

I am anti Kentucky and NC right now.

The way I see it, this team got its young top draft pick with Wall. This team is so rudderless right now. What they really need to do first is add established vet star power so any future draft picks have an actually team to develop with.

Blind leading the blind is not going to work.

They need to add some Batum, Frye, Melo, etc type talent so they have something established to grow.

Right now, Beal is still the player I want the most out of the top picks. The kid added some muscle and looked to have an NBA ready body. And from the interview I saw of him, I really like his maturity.



Very impressive interview. Sound like he wants to grow more so he can be a SG/SF
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3IDrxF2iXOw&feature=player_embedded[/youtube]

Sorry to say this about Robinson , but he doesn't look like a shooter.

Wizards need shooters. Not more talk Dunkers.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SP5-2ibe ... ata_player

[queridiculo]

Knighthonor, at some point you have to get over your obsession with shooters.

Don't get me wrong, we definitely need to be able to stretch the floor, but this team needs to learn to walk before they can run. We have so many holes that it's useless to focus on one aspect of the game that doesn't necessarily translate to wins on the floor.

Where this team is hurting the most is interior defense, rebounding and an inside scoring threat.

Assuming that we're going to take a flyer that McGee will finally get it, we're really left with no choice but to add somebody that complements his skill set.

Davis is the dream scenario here obviously, but even with the ping pong balls not going in our favor it has to be between guys like Robinson, Sullinger, Moultrie etc.

About the only player I'd make an exception for here is MKG. If he's available and we don't have the top choice add him.

This team has so many holes to me it would be an absolute travesty if we came away with a shooting guard as our top choice.

All highlights obviously, but Robinson would certainly give us something that we haven't seen in DC in a long long time.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pPDHhnNDEBw

[nate33]

Davis is clearly the first choice.

Hopefully, somebody will take Drummond 2nd. If we're picking #2, I'd side with Doc and take Robinson. He's the best combination of talent and fit.

If we're picking 3rd, Robinson would probably still be on the board and I'd take him.

If we're picking 4th, Robinson could still be on the board and I'd take him. If he's off, it'll be between MKG, Barnes, Sullinger and perhaps Beal. I'd lean toward Barnes but wouldn't be at all upset with an MKG pick either.

If we're picking 5th, Barnes is likely to still be on the board. Now we're getting into the range where drafting a high-floor low-ceiling guy like Barnes wouldn't be such a reach. He's a perfect fit on our roster.

The bottom line is that we're probably going to end up with Robinson. I can live with that. The worst case scenario is Barnes at #5, which isn't such a bad scenario either.

[doclinkin]

The worst case scenario is Barnes at #5

Clearly you haven't been a Wiz fan for very long.

One need only read from the book of Ji to understand that this team will go on a late season run as veteran squads begin to falter from the shortened season and decide to rest their legs for the playoffs. In an attempt to showcase Dray for draft day trades we unearth him from the bench and the lazy groundhog smells the familiar April air, shakes off the sloth from his long slumber and begins ballin like an allstar as he usually does. The Wiz' youth pep and vigor will undo all efforts at a proper tank as we leapfrog three four spots in the standings, then on lotto day watch as we're jumped by the '9th seed' Knickerbockers who slid in the standings when Jeremy Lin suffered a mild temporary eye injury from media overexposure. Wiz pick 8th. Perry Jones!

[nate33]

Yes, that's a possibility. On the other hand, we have the 2nd worst record in the league despite having very few injury problems. What happens if Wall, Young or McGee gets hurt? Wall is the only high quality player on the team. Young is the only shooter. McGee is the only guy who can rebound. If any one of them gets hurt, I don't see us playing better than .200 ball from here on out. Heck, even if Booker or Crawford goes down, we're in a world of hurt.

[REDardWIZskin]

Robinson has more skill than all of our bigs do and has the toughness and physical ability to go with it. He's even a shown an ability to pass out of the post and could be a nice high/low option with Mcgee. WE NEED A GOOD REBOUNDER next to McGee, he'll look a lot better.

[doclinkin]

Rony Turiaf returns from injury: 4 game win streak.

[BanndNDC]

and at 6 we have Sullinger. So i guess that is our worst case scenario. which is a little better option then last year's worst case scenario - which happened. but there is also the possibility of the 3 years ago worst case scenario which we made worse when we assumed we'd get harden traded out early and could have gotten rubio.

my pessimistic top 3 (right now) is robinson, barnes, sullinger. the 1st two provide strong skills we dont have and the other provides good skills we dont have.

ive been leaning towards barnes under the assumption that we could overpay and get illyasova but it is never good to make assumption with grunfeld in charge.

[Severn Hoos]

More importantly, and this is key in understanding his late emergence hidden behind Kief and Cus Morris. He displays the classic learning curve of a player who improves every year, suggestive that he will continue to hone his game in the pros. As a freshman he posted a sub 40% free throw percentage, after steady improvement he now flirts with 70%. His fouls per 40 have cut in half from 7 to 3.5. His passing metrics have improved despite his possession percentage jumping from 9% to 24% of team total possessions.

doc, thanks for this - good stuff as always. And maybe you can help me get over one last hangup I have with regards to TRob. I get that he has been a steady improver - and also that his per minute & efficiency numbers are virtually the same as last year, just that he's had the opportunity to play more minutes, thus rack up more stats.

The question is - can you give an example of a guy who follows this trend, improving from an OK but low-impact player to star, then became a true game changer in the NBA? And specifically, someone who has done so in the one-and-done era (i.e., roughly the past decade)?

When I look at the current crop of All-Stars, I see three types (excluding Internationals):

1. HSers who made the jump straight to the NBA (LeBron, Dwight, KG)
2. One-and-doners (Rose, Durant, Love, Melo, Bosh)
3. Guys who stayed 2-4 years in college (Duncan, Griffin, Wade)

Obviously, the first category no longer exists, but even if it did, it wouldn't apply to Robinson, since these are guys who were already able to contribute at an NBA level.

Many in the second group probably would have gone straight from HS if they were able to do so, and thus also not good analogies to the "learning curve" approach.

So that leaves the third group to pick from. And in many of these cases, the player was already having an impact as a Freshman - certainly much more than Robinson did. Even secondary stars like Iguodala or Harden - who definitely improved in their time in the NCAA - were still big time players as Freshmen.

LaMarcus Aldridge didn't have eye-popping stats as a Freshman, but that had as much to do with a season-ending injury that cost him half of his Freshman year.

Maybe the closest example would be Russell Westbrook, who went from a 9 minute per game nobody as a Freshman to a medium-impact Sophomore (but huge WS on the defensive end), and now is an All-Star with a 23+ PER.

Greg Monroe averaged "just" 12.7 & 6.5 as a Freshman, but did post a 5.0 Win Share, which indicates a strong positive impact to the team.

Point is, there really isn't a contemporary example of a guy who goes on that learning curve and the road ends with an All-NBA recognition. I am fully on board with Robinson, would be satisfied (though not particularly ecstatic) if he is the pick. But it's interesting that Barnes & Sullinger get dinged for not having a high enough ceiling, while I question whether Robinson's ceiling is really any higher.

[Plus full caveats - past history does not automatically determine future results, Robinson's his own man, etc.]

I'd love to be proven wrong, but I just have an uneasy feeling if we're talking about Robinson as a big-time player. (Example - my guess is that Barnes will make more A-S Games than Robinson. Whether or not that is the final measure of value for a player to a franchise is up for debate, but I think that's the likely outcome.)

[doclinkin]

More importantly, and this is key in understanding his late emergence hidden behind Kief and Cus Morris. He displays the classic learning curve of a player who improves every year, suggestive that he will continue to hone his game in the pros. As a freshman he posted a sub 40% free throw percentage, after steady improvement he now flirts with 70%. His fouls per 40 have cut in half from 7 to 3.5. His passing metrics have improved despite his possession percentage jumping from 9% to 24% of team total possessions.

doc, thanks for this - good stuff as always. And maybe you can help me get over one last hangup I have with regards to TRob. I get that he has been a steady improver - and also that his per minute & efficiency numbers are virtually the same as last year, just that he's had the opportunity to play more minutes, thus rack up more stats.

The question is - can you give an example of a guy who follows this trend, improving from an OK but low-impact player to star, then became a true game changer in the NBA? And specifically, someone who has done so in the one-and-done era (i.e., roughly the past decade)?

Does Roy Hibbert count? He was next to useless as a frosh but has slowly constantly added to his game. Came into the NBA posting under 4 boards and 7 points. Now he's a steady reliable double double guy with significant defensive impact. 1st time all-star this year. He shows a similar learning curve if you look at his stats.