Right now Hollinger's playoff odds project us to be tied for the 8th worst record.
http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffoddsNow I doubt we will be able to get into the worst 5 teams, but it is quite considerable how much better your lottery odds get better from like the 9th worst record to the 6th worst record. If you look at the 2011 lottery, look at #6 vs #9....odds go from 6.3% (about 1 in 15) to 1.7% (about 1 in 59).
http://www.mynbadraft.com/nba-draft-lottery-odds(Sidenote - does anyone know if the lottery odds changed in the new CBA because if you compare the odds on the two links that I put above, they aren't totally in sync....and it appears in Hollingers, that if they have changed, that the odds have improved for the spots after the top 3
To get to the 6th worst record, we would likely need to be passed up by Sacramento and NJ, and finishing worse than Cleveland. I think this is possible since Sac and Cleveland are reliant on young players who may improve, and if NJ happens to trade for Howard, they will almost certainly pass us up (so we should all be hoping for that....also because it keeps him out of the west.)
I don't know if that is inconceivable. I really haven't been pulling for us to lose, because it is hard for me to, but just remember, it's not set in stone that we will get the draft pick we are slotted for....it is very possible we could move up into the top 3 (but the odds are so much better if we can get into the six).
So, as the front office has to prepare for, we should include it in our discussion here...IF we get a top 3 pick, who do we take at each of those spots, and then, otherwise, we are likely to be somewhere in the 6-10 range, who do we take then.
I
