2012 NBA Draft - Part II

[jivelikenice]

Watching the Mizzu/KU game. First chance to see Thomas Robinson. Looks real small. Definately closer to 6'8'' than the listed 6'10''. Measurements will determine whether he's a solid #2 selection or a mid-lotto type guy.

Measured 6'10 (in shoes) 240 lbs, with a 7'1 wingspan at the 2011 Amare Stoudemire Skills Academy.
http://nbadraft.net/players/thomas-robinson

He has enough size to be a PF

[no D in Hibachi]

Watching the Mizzu/KU game. First chance to see Thomas Robinson. Looks real small. Definately closer to 6'8'' than the listed 6'10''. Measurements will determine whether he's a solid #2 selection or a mid-lotto type guy.

Measured 6'10 (in shoes) 240 lbs, with a 7'1 wingspan at the 2011 Amare Stoudemire Skills Academy.
http://nbadraft.net/players/thomas-robinson

He has enough size to be a PF

I'm aware of these 'measurements' and find them to be unreliable at best. The official pre-draft measurements will be very telling.

[Jay81]

this draft went from great to mediocre in just a few months. What happened lol?

[Earth2Ted]

Watching the Mizzu/KU game. First chance to see Thomas Robinson. Looks real small. Definately closer to 6'8'' than the listed 6'10''. Measurements will determine whether he's a solid #2 selection or a mid-lotto type guy.

Didn't see the game but Robinson came up big in the clutch- hit a bucket and the free throw to tie it with 16 seconds left, and then blocked a shot at the other end to send it to OT where KU pulled it out.

I'd be perfectly happy to see him measure out at 6 foot 8 and drop to mid lottery where we could get him- and if we pass on him for anyone but Anthony Davis I think it would be a big mistake.

[tontoz]

I would definitely be happy with Robinson at 2. That game today was nuts.

Davis went off today, even made a couple of jumpers. One of them was right near the 3 point line.

[Ed Wood]

I'd say late first round grade on the guy Severn described, but that's partially because I'm pretty sure I know who it is even without looking it up. I wouldn't call him a small forward, however, so much as a power forward with range.

Anyway, here's another round of:

Draft or No Draft

Also come on guys, you draft Thomas Robinson if he only grades out as having average height for his position.

Consider the Following Profile:

Player A

- This player is a guard
- This player is a junior
- He plays in the 26th ranked conference by RPI

Notable Stats

- Among players using over 28% of their teams possessions this player is top ten in oRtg
- This player has a TS% that is top twenty in the country (over 65)
- This player is excellent at drawing fouls, top twenty nationally in fouls drawn per 40 (7.0)
- This player's rebounding rates are healthy for a guard but not exceptional: 15.4 DR%.
- Excellent outside shooter, over 40%, with a roughly even 1:1 ratio of twos to threes attempted.
- Assist rate is respectable but not earth shattering: around 28%, just in the top 150 in the country.
- Steal and block rates aren't standout but aren't embarrassing: 2.7% for steals.

as compared to:

Player B

- This player is a guard
- This player is a junior
- This player plays in the 22nd ranked conference by RPI

Notable stats

- Among players using over 28% of their teams possessions this player is top ten in oRtg
- This player is just outside the top 30 nationally in fouls drawn (6.5 per 40).
- This player has a solid but not incredible TS%, 56.5.
- This player is top 20 in the country in both percentage of team shots and in overall usage (32.5 Usg)
- This player is a solid perimeter shooter but not stellar, over 35% of threes at 5 per game.
- This player is a good but not great rebounding guard: 17.6 DR%, 5.7 OR%.
- This player is a willing but not exceptional passer, 24.5% Assist rate, around 250th in the country.
- This player is an active defender, his steal rate of 4.5% is top twenty nationally.

So I ask of you, who do you rate more highly? What grade does each receive? What particular qualities in each stand out for good or for ill?

[BruceO]

Your scenarios are interesting but personally i use stats to point me towards players that need to be watched and evaluated. Then whether to draft or not is based on whether that person can keep up those numbers based on style of play, skills, smarts of player, desire and size and athletic minimums. Then i also see if theres potential for new skills based on how they do things. Try notice what may have been missed out on. All these things are critical to drafting and don't show up in your stats

[Ed Wood]

Sure, I'm not making the reductionist argument that statistics are everything you need to fully evaluate a player, and certainly not the limited sampling that I'm providing. It's also the case, however, that biases can worm their way into more subjective examinations of a player, e.g. the extensive concerns regarding the physical limitations of Kevin Love despite the fact that he both tested quite well athletically and had strong athletic markers in his statistical profile. I'm interested in seeing how a player comes across without those very important but also potentially misleading judgments, hence this thing.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Between Missouri and Kansas there are legitimately 4 or 5 guys with a shot to make an NBA roster.

For KU, Robinson will be a lottery pick. Withey is very tall and will get picked. Tyshawn Taylor has got a shot, too. Selby from KU last season is in the NBA and Taylor has had a lot more NCAA success.

For MU, I tracked Denmon's shooting. He's over 40% from 3Pt and over 90% from the FT line. I expect Denmon will at the very least be a strong D-League player who gets a call up, if he doesn't make a roster. Cardo Ratliff had been slumping for lack of involvement in the Tiger's offense. Today he matched Robinson's 12 rebounds, but had 7 offensive rebounds. That is special. Ratliff is still over 70% in FG shooting. He might be smallish, so I wonder if he can play some SF at the next level. Kim English has the athleticism and size to be an NBA SG and he shoots it very well.

http://kansascity.sbnation.com/kansas-j ... fringe-nba

NBA Draft Express has come out with their Top 100 prospects for the 2012 NBA Draft and every Missouri player on the list is potentially a second rounder at best and undrafted at worst. Ricardo Ratliffe comes in highest on the list at No. 57 overall. Marcus Denmon is next at No. 66 and then Kim English is the latest Tiger on the list at No. 84.

[BruceO]

You know i only just realized from nbadraft.net that we have dallas late 2nd rounder this year and knicks 2nd rounder next year because of the tyson chandler trade. In the trade thread i had suggested mcgee + turiaf for d wright, ekpe udoh and 2nd rounder ( 34th curently) These two early second rounders plus the late should be more than enough to move up right? How far do you think our pick plus dallas can take us and both plus warriors pick? Or in sign and trades involving nick young?

[BruceO]

You know i only just realized from nbadraft.net that we have dallas late 2nd rounder this year and knicks 2nd rounder next year because of the tyson chandler trade. In the trade thread i had suggested mcgee + turiaf for d wright, ekpe udoh and 2nd rounder ( 34th curently) These two early second rounders plus the late should be more than enough to move up right? How far do you think our pick plus dallas can take us and both plus warriors pick? Or in sign and trades involving nick young?

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Anthony Davis had his best NCAA game yesterday, against Vanderbilt. 28 points (10-11 FG, 8-9 FT), 11 rebounds, 6 blocks, 2 steals.

http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/basketball ... 1202250292

“Whatever they gave me, I fed off of it,” Davis said. “I don’t think I had a lob today and we still came out and executed the way we wanted to.”

“It’d be great to get the [national player of the year] award, but at the same time my main focus is to win a national championship,” Davis said.

I think he's going to be able to score a lot more points in the NBA than he does in college. Davis is roughly averaging 14 and 10 with 5 blocks a game.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

The other day a friend and I were talking about the NBA. My friend is from Cleveland and he wondered how the Cavs knew to draft Kyrie Irving first. What did he show in college that made him #1 overal?

My comments to him echoed his question. How did they know Kyrie Irving would be very good? After all, Irving was injured in all but a handful of Duke's games.

Here a really good story about Irving that I think shows what makes him special.

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/page/kyr ... ollowed-it

[Earth2Ted]

Jared Sullinger really not looking like himself the past few games- you have to wonder if his back is bothering him, and he may have just rolled his ankle.

From the Wiz perspective you want to see as many guys as possible start to pick up their game and improve the draft- Anthony Davis and Thomas Robinson definitely have, Sullinger for whatever reason hasn't.

[theboomking]

Here's a thought, unless we get the #1 pick, would you trade Blatche+the pick for Harden (conditioned on Harden accepting an extension)? OKC saves money on the Harden extension, try and rehab Blatche, and likely get a really good wing like Barnes, Beal, or MKG.

Yes.

Getting a proven player and get rid of an unwanted player at the same time is worth sacrificing the pick. I doubt OKC would do it, however. If the Wizards acquired the rights to Harden through trade, they would have their starter at SG, and thus could go all in $$ on acquiring a top free agent SF or PF. Batum, Ilyasova, and Anderson would be attainable. Free agents would take the Wizards seriously if Washington already had added Harden via trade.

I would be all for it, mhd.

I actually think Harden is underrated, and would be as good or better in another city. I wouldn't be stunned if Harden moves on and is considered to have had a better career that Westbrook.

That being said, Harden is a RFA next year. If we want him, we should use our pick this year , sign one FA this year, and sign Harden next.

Davis, or Robinson
Batum
Harden

[Ruzious]

Here's a thought, unless we get the #1 pick, would you trade Blatche+the pick for Harden (conditioned on Harden accepting an extension)? OKC saves money on the Harden extension, try and rehab Blatche, and likely get a really good wing like Barnes, Beal, or MKG.

Yes.

Getting a proven player and get rid of an unwanted player at the same time is worth sacrificing the pick. I doubt OKC would do it, however. If the Wizards acquired the rights to Harden through trade, they would have their starter at SG, and thus could go all in $$ on acquiring a top free agent SF or PF. Batum, Ilyasova, and Anderson would be attainable. Free agents would take the Wizards seriously if Washington already had added Harden via trade.

I would be all for it, mhd.

I actually think Harden is underrated, and would be as good or better in another city. I wouldn't be stunned if Harden moves on and is considered to have had a better career that Westbrook.

That being said, Harden is a RFA next year. If we want him, we should use our pick this year , sign one FA this year, and sign Harden next.

Davis, or Robinson
Batum
Harden

I agree.

If we add Davis, Batum, and Harden, we will win championships.

Then again, Portland imo was set to win championships with Roy, Oden, and Aldridge - so ya never know.

[tontoz]

Portland does seem a bit cursed. Roy and Oden did have health question marks when they were drafted but this has just been ridiculous.

[Severn Hoos]

After Saturday's game, I want no part of Henson on the Wiz. Yes, I know it's an emotional reaction to my team losing, but I HATE flopping, even when a guy on the team I'm rooting for does it.

The fourth "foul" on Scott was just embarrassing. I hope the refs on the floor get a long Spring Break after that game.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XMRTUKcsjXA&context=C36e2038ADOEgsToPDskLEYtieLXu2aptnj8NumaNq[/youtube]

[Dat2U]

Right now I'd take Henson over Sullinger. Something is definitely wrong with Sully. He's not nearly as active as he needs to be and seems to be standing around a lot.

I think a gooddebate may be developing on who to take at #2. Kidd-Gilchrist or Robinson. My personal preference is Kidd-Gilchrist but Robinson is a very solid choice in my book. The edge for me goes to the guy that's 2 and half years younger tho.

[Nivek]

I hate flopping too, sev. Having done some reffing, I don't think it's something that can be fixed by on-court officials. You're watching what you're supposed to be watching, there's a sudden movement of a guy flailing about, your eyes go there, and you see a forearm extended. You blow the whistle and call a foul on the guy throwing the forearm. And then feel like an ass when you see the replay.

In the NBA, I'd address it with escalating fines and suspensions.

In the NCAA, I'd address it with suspensions. First offense = one game for the player. Second offense = two games -- either both games for the player or a game each for the player or the head coach. Third offense would be three games -- and the coach would have to serve one. Fourth offense = four games, and the coach would have to sit two.

And so on. The cap for the player would be three games. The coach would have to serve the rest of the suspension time. And, I wouldn't make the suspensions follow the player -- it would be a team-level thing. So, if Severn Hoos, that dynamic PG from UVA, flops, it's one game sitting. Then if plodding big man Ni Vek (also for UVA) flops, it's two games. And so on.