My Mock Draft

[Karmaloop]

Posted this on another site I write for, figured I'd get some more input. Should be noted this is with combine projections as well as my own feel for draft stocks. I usually don't project trades, but I went ahead on this one.

1.) Indianapolis Colts – Andrew Luck [QB; Stanford]
The writing has been on the wall for a while now that Luck would be the #1 overall pick, and nothing including Peyton Manning being under contract is going to stop Luck from being the #1 pick. Ultimately, I don’t believe Peyton will be in Colts uniform coming opening day and that Luck will be taken by the Colts to remain in Indianapolis. The winds of change have already begun sweeping through Indianapolis.

2.) Washington Redskins (from St. Louis) – Robert Griffin III [QB; Baylor]
I’m about 99.9% sure that the Rams won’t be picking here when the time comes for the #2 pick to be announced. Cleveland, Washington, and Miami will all likely jockeying for position to draft RGIII with the losers looking to either Matt Flynn in free agency or Ryan Tannehill a bit later. The Redskins trade up in a similar fashion to when the Giants traded to get up to Eli Manning, but Cleveland jumps in at the last minute to make it a three team deal.

3.) Minnesota Vikings – Matt Kalil [OT; USC]
Don’t believe a word Vikings GM Rick Spielman said about willing to trade down from the #3 pick. The only way the Vikings aren’t picking at 3 is if Matt Kalil and Morris Claiborne are off the board (which won’t happen) OR they’re blown away in an offer for RGIII should he not go off the board earlier. The Vikings have a massive hole at LT as Charlie Johnson was ineffective, and Kalil is the best tackle prospect in this year’s draft.

4.) St. Louis Rams (from Cleveland) – Justin Blackmon [WR; Oklahoma State]
The Rams ideally would like to move back a couple of spots, so that they’d still be in a position to take either Justin Blackmon or Morris Claiborne, whomever Minnesota doesn’t take. They drag Cleveland in at the last minute, which according to rumors has Mike Holmgren looking to trade down and acquire more picks, and facilitate a three team deal netting the Rams the fourth overall pick. The Rams finally get Sam Bradford his #1 WR.

5.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Morris Claiborne [CB; LSU]
The Buccaneers are likely to take Claiborne at this spot assuming he’s available given that Ronde Barber is pretty close to requirement along with the legal issues that Aqib Talib is facing. Claiborne is a really good prospect in his own right, and really came on strong this year after Patrick Peterson left a year earlier. The Buccaneers have a tendency to draft for need with their first pick, and cornerback is arguably their biggest need this year.

6.) Cleveland Browns (from Washington) – Trent Richardson [RB; Alabama]
An injury really ruined Peyton Hillis’ 2011 campaign, and now heads to free agency with his stock lower than it was the previous year. Combine Hillis’ injury concerns with Montario Hardesty’s ineffectiveness, and the Browns should take consideration to taking a running back early in this year’s draft. Looking for the direction the Browns would take, I looked back at the drafts when Holmgren was at Seattle and they were defense heavy early in the draft. Problem is that there really aren’t any defenders worth top five picks outside of Claiborne.

7.) Jacksonville Jaguars – Kendall Wright [WR; Baylor]
The first “shocker” of the draft, and year after year there is always a surprising pick in the top ten and this year I feel that Gene Smith will be that GM again. Wright’s stock appears to be that of a mid 1st round pick but after what will likely be a strong showing at the combine he’ll see his stock rise some more. Gene Smith favors high quality players and generally tends to double up on positions so don’t be surprised if he were to take another receiver in the second or third round after taking one with their first pick. Definitely one of the tougher spots to project.

8.) Carolina Panthers – Michael Brockers [DT; LSU]
The Panther seem to have an affinity for projection with their first picks in recent years, and that tradition continues this year. Brocker was a bit of a surprise declaration, but with a strong combine he should elevate his stock from a mid-to-late 1st round pick into the top ten selection. Dre’ Kirkpatrick still remains a potential candidate to be taken here, but the recent arrest may push his stock down a few more slots.

9.) Miami Dolphins – Quinton Coples [DE; North Carolina]
I’m about 95% sure that Matt Flynn will end up as the Dolphins starting QB, with a 4.9% chance he ends in Cleveland, and a 0.1% chance he ends up in Washington. You can’t really use the draft history of the Dolphins with their drastic change in philosophy under new head coach Joe Philbin. They opt to continue to build up that 4-3 defense and add Coples to pair with Cameron Wake. New defensive coordinator has experience with a team that preferred projection over production in their defensive needs.

10.) Buffalo Bills – Nick Perry [DE/OLB; USC]
The Bills were tied for 27th in sacks last year, so looking to improve that number will likely be among the Bills biggest priorities. The Bills had 4 sacks in their 4-1 start, so their record was a false indicator of their real talent. Pass rush is imperative to winning ball games, and the Bills need to fix that even after getting burned a few years ago by Aaron Maybin. Nick Perry is already a mid 1st Round Pick, but will likely see his draft stock go up a bit more at the combine.

11.) New York Jets (from Seattle) – David DeCastro [OG; Stanford]
Another trade I’m projecting, as the Jets tend to target their players and will occasionally tend to them overpaying to get them. The Jets are very good about getting the guys they want, and this year is no different. This deal knocks out two birds with one stone. DeCastro will be inserted from Day 1 at LG, and pushes Matt Slauson over to RT. The Jets regressed significantly in the running game, and they’ll look to fix that by adding David DeCastro to the offensive line.

12.) Kansas City Chiefs – Riley Reiff [OT; Iowa]
The Chiefs continue to build up the offensive line and help them get back to their dominant running game with Jamaal Charles coming back from injury. Reiff has a legitimate case as the top offensive tackle prospect, but Kalil’s superior athleticism likely gives him the nod as a potential LT prospect. Reiff is very much in the same mold as Bryan Bulaga a few years ago in that he’s a smart technician which makes up for his less than perfect athleticism.

13.) Arizona Cardinals – Alshon Jeffrey [WR; South Carolina]
The Cardinals could look in a number of directions here, they could to take Luke Kuechley or Jonathan Martin here, but ultimately the value of Jeffrey is too much for the Cardinals to pass up. They need to make their investment in Kevin Kolb succeed so getting him another receiver makes sense. Early Doucett is a free agent and may not return, so Jeffrey can fit in with Larry Fitzgerald and Andre Roberts.

14.) Dallas Cowboys – Devon Still [DT; Penn State]
Jerry Jones bunked the theory that he wouldn’t take an offensive lineman in the first round when he took Tyron Smith with the ninth pick in last year’s draft. He goes back to what he used to and looks to help rebuild the defense. Devon Still had a big senior year and as a result he should hear his name being called pretty early this year. The Cowboys have a chance to have a really good defense in 2012 if they can stay healthy. Devon Still helps fill the DE issues they’ve had in recent years.

15.) Philadelphia Eagles – Michael Floyd [WR; Notre Dame]
The Eagles could go in a number of directions by taking Luke Kuechley or even Jonathan Martin here, but ultimately their inability to come close to a contract with DeSean Jackson will likely lead the Eagles to take another receiver early. The Eagles tend to draft lineman early in the draft under Andy Reid’s watch, but he could be starting to lose his control in the FO with the poor showing he has had in the last couple of years and seat could be getting pretty warm if his team does not perform well.

16.) Detroit Lions (from Seattle through New York) – Jonathan Martin [OT; Stanford]
The Lions under Martin Mayhew have never been afraid of trading up for a guy who they see falling, and this year is no different with some saying that Martin is worthy of a top ten pick. Martin will start at RT Day 1, and push out Gosder Cherilus and could potentially slide over to LT once Jeff Backus decides to hang up the cleats. They give up a mid round pick to ensure that they get Martin.

17.) Cincinnati Bengals (from Oakland) – Lamar Miller [RB; Miami (FL)]
Cedric Benson will almost assuredly not be back this year and Bernard Scott isn’t expected to become a feature back, the Bengals will likely be interested in drafting a running back pretty early this year. Lamar Miller will set himself as the clear #2 back when it’s all said and done and the Bengals will add yet another good running back to their mix. Lamar Miller declared early amongst the Miami scandal but is otherwise pretty clean.

18.) San Diego Chargers – Mike Adams [OT; Ohio State]
There might not have been a player in this year’s Senior Bowl whose stock raised more with strong play than Mike Adams. Marcus McNeil has significant injury concerns, and they’re RT position could stand to be upgraded. Adams was largely a disappointment at Ohio State could see his stock rise up even more with a strong combine.

19.) Chicago Bears – Melvin Ingram [DE; South Carolina]
Somewhat of a shocker pick given that they already have Julius Peppers manning the RDE spot, but the Bears like to add defensive players early in the draft and this year isn’t any different. The Bears bread and butter has been the running game combined with the defense and the defense has regressed this year. They expect Jay Cutler to return to form, and will look to add another wide receiver either through free agency or through the draft.

20.) Tennessee Titans – Whitney Mercilus [DE; Illinois]
What an awesome name for a pass rusher, but he lives up to it. Mercilus put up one of the best seasons as far as sacks go in football and capitalized on it by declaring early. He still has some issues in the run game, but that will likely be figured out with better coaching. At Illinois, staying in his caps weren’t the most important and getting to the quarterback was pretty much his only job.

21.) Cincinnati Bengals – Cordy Glenn [OG; Georgia]
Another strong showing at the combine has Glenn moving up from the second round into the first. The Bengals have always shown a direction of taking need in the first round and this year should be no different with two first round picks. The Bengals help take more pressure off of Andy Dalton and hope that he doesn’t regress in his second season. They need to protect their investment at all costs.

22.) Cleveland Browns (from Atlanta) – Zach Brown [OLB; North Carolina]
Zach Brown has a good band, but this isn’t the Zach Brown we’re talking about. Zach is an excellent linebacker prospect who is quite versatile in that he can play the 4-3 OLB and 3-4 ILB. Some think he could play a 3-4 OLB role, but it appears unlikely. The Browns linebackers are a mess, and adding Zach Brown helps continue to rebuild the defense under Mike Holmgren. Sheard, Brown, and Haden are a fantastic top 3 for that defense.

23.) Seattle Seahawks (from Detroit) – Ryan Tannehill [QB; Texas A&M]
Year after year, there is a team that trades down from an early spot and ends up picking towards the end of the first round and this year that is Seattle. After missing out on RGIII, they opt to go down and draft a quarterback. Tannehill is likely sitting as a second round pick, but he’ll regain the value he lost because of the foot injury with a workout prior to the draft and his work in the interview process. He likely wouldn’t get past Cleveland in the second round.

24.) Pittsburgh Steelers – Dont’a Hightower [ILB; Alabama]
I’m not that high on him, but he fits the Steelers mold. He’s a hardnosed football player who should fit in nicely in the ILB role next to Lawrence Timmons as James Farrior is getting up there. He’s extremely well coached by Nick Saban, which will also help his value with the Steelers as their players are one of the best coached in the league.

25.) Denver Broncos – Dre’ Kirkpatrick [CB/S; Alabama]
Kirkpatrick’s fall finally stops with him landing in Denver. Originally, I didn’t think that Kirkpatrick would drop past 18 or so even with the arrest, but the combination of other value and team needs has left Kirkpatrick still on the board at 25. He’s got some issues and questions regarding his ability to play corner, but he could always transition to safety if he can’t cut it at cornerback.

26.) Houston Texans – Brandon Thompson [DT; Clemson]
Might seem like a bit of a head scratcher, but to me he’s a really good fit as a one gap nose tackle very much in the mold of Jay Ratliff. He’s not a great pass rusher, but he’s decent but more importantly he’s able to hold his own in run support and tackle the POA. He’s stout and built extremely well and think he has a good chance to be a good nose tackle. Houston happens to have a pretty big need at nose, and should help Wade Phillips keep the defense playing well.

27.) New England Patriots (from New Orleans) – Chase Minnfield [CB; Virginia]
Just screams a BB pick as he’s got the high quality character and the bloodlines, but he also fits in their defense. The Patriots had a bunch of issues in their secondary and they bring in Minnfield to hopefully help fix some of those issues. He’s an excellent zone corner who doesn’t appear to have the ability to play man coverage consistently at a high level.

28.) Green Bay Packers – Peter Konz [C; Wisconsin]
While I’m sure most Packers fans would be clamoring for Courtney Upshaw here, I find it highly unlikely he is our pick. I’m pretty confident that NFL GMs don’t hold Courtney Upshaw in as high regards as the casual fans do. On the other hand, Peter Konz is a legitimate blue chip center prospect. Konz is extremely well coached, and should have no issues replacing Scott Wells. Wells is likely to leave with the money being too much for a guy on the wrong side of 30.

29.) Baltimore Ravens – Vontaze Burfict [ILB; Arizona State]
The Ravens go a bit away from what they usually do, but they believe that Burfict learning from Ray Lewis is the perfect way to bridge the gap between Lewis into the future. Potentially, they could have a Bowman/Willis kind of play where both of them get recognized for their play. Burfict has some issues of control but Lewis could be the guy who gets the kid to play up to his potential.

30.) San Francisco 49ers – Vinny Curry [DE/OLB; Marshall]
They add yet another pass rusher to their team and someone to pair with Aldon Smith in the near future. A LB corps of Smith-Willis-Bowman-Curry is just downright unfair for the rest of the league, and as long as Justin Smith keeps playing well the 49ers will have a top defense for a long time.

31.) Philadelphia Eagles (from New England) – Dontari Poe [DT; Memphis]
Nope, I couldn’t go a mock without having the Eagles draft a lineman with a first round pick. The Eagles seem to be a prime candidate to move up into the first as they’ve got two seconds, one third, and two fourths and the Patriots always love trading down from their spots. Poe is sort of an interesting player. He plays like he’s a UT, but he’s built like a 4-3 NT but ultimately Andy Reid will get him in the best position to succeed.

32.) New York Giants – Dwayne Allen [TE; Clemson]
Kind of another head scratching pick especially given the emergence of Ballard. This league is a copycat league and after surviving Gronkowski and Hernandez, the Giants opt to add yet another tight end to their roster and give Eli Manning yet another weapon. Dwayne Allen appears to be the clear top tight end going into the combine, and the combine will likely solidify that.

[Bucksfans1and2]

I don't think the Packer pick is likely but I would love it.

[Cammo101]

I'd still be surprised to see Lamar Miller go in the first round. I know having him there is trendy, but I can't see any team taking him this early when there are productive backs to be had later on.

IMO you need to be almost a for sure franchise back to go in the first round. Richardson is. Miller is not IMO. If I am Cincy I am taking a corner in the first and grabbing a Doug Martin or LaMichael James later on.

[Sandlot]

I doubt the Niners go with another pass rusher. I see your training for it buy they have nds at receiver and corner.

[JaxMagic]

From a Jag's fan perspective that was very spot on, I can tell that you did your homework! I could definitely see it being Wright. Also nice observation on Gene usually drafting a position in back to back rounds. Very true.

[kdawg32086]

Burfict to the Ravens is a GREAT fit IMO. If he's there, they'll take him.

[ohara]

I think Kirkpatrick will get back into the Top 10 now, or real close to it. The possession charges were dropped. Apparently Dre was a passenger and the driver has admitted that it was his and not Kirkpatrick's. You can argue that a friend is taking one for him here if you dont believe them, but it does seem to clear Kirkpatrick so I dont think it will affect his draft status at this point. May not have been a big issue with some teams, but for those that cared, it may no longer be an issue.

[Bucksfans1and2]

I think Kirkpatrick will get back into the Top 10 now, or real close to it. The possession charges were dropped. Apparently Dre was a passenger and the driver has admitted that it was his and not Kirkpatrick's. You can argue that a friend is taking one for him here if you dont believe them, but it does seem to clear Kirkpatrick so I dont think it will affect his draft status at this point. May not have been a big issue with some teams, but for those that cared, it may no longer be an issue.

Pretty clear his friends were taking the fall for him.

[Roger Murdock]

Has there ever been a 3 team trade in the history of the NFL? I hate this for the Browns. If we take a freaking running back top 10 I will go ballistic.

[bgrep14]

Has there ever been a 3 team trade in the history of the NFL? I hate this for the Browns. If we take a freaking running back top 10 I will go ballistic.

+1 id rather wait til later to take a rb and just draft blackmon at 4 if we cant get rg3...