2012 NBA Draft - Part II

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Sorry if this has already been posted, but Seth Davis at SI wrote a tremendous article (LINK HERE) which has some great insights about some of the top guys in the draft. Apparently it is taken from a bunch of different coaches from 6 of the top NCAA conferences under condition of anonymity.

He mentioned two I like:
Terrence Ross of the (other) Huskies.
And the eccentric Royce White of Iowa State.

Thanks, doc!

You're right about this article. Great insights on the top teams/players. I'm all into March Madness mode, and this article you've posted is already something I've bookmarked. Good find. Seth Davis does and his staff really break down NCAA ball well.

--Ross is higher on my list than Barnes right now.
--Like Davis, I think Tyler Zeller is the best player on the Tar Heels.
--Jae Crowder will make an NBA roster and be a good player.
--Sev's guy, Mike Scott has really stepped up at the right time. His draft stock is way up.
--Jenkins makes as much sense as any player for the Wizards.
--Jeremy Lamb's stock is plummeting. He should have come out last season.
--Seth Davis' mentioned a couple guys I will pay closer attention to: Trey Burke and Solomon Hill

[Ruzious]

I can't say I was impressed by Hill last season - when watching his more famous teammate, but Burke's looked extremely solid for a freshman PG. Even though he's listed at 5'11, he looks strong enough for the NBA - built a bit like Paul. I think he can eventually be late 1st rounder - maybe higher if he significantly improves his 3 point shooting.

[nate33]

I have heard rumors that Thomas Robinson is staying in school. This could be a disaster if all these top players remain in college.

That would be a completely irrational move for him. His stock will never get higher. He is already facing concerns that he is merely a man amongst boys.

[fishercob]

i think Sullinger's recent play matches his second paragraph. His motor hasn't been quite up to par lately. And I think it's a huge stretch to conclude that he's assertive on the defensive end of the court.

His recent play is definitely of concern. Bilas speculated (stressed that he had no intel) that Sully is hurt because he hasn't looked like the same player for the last several weeks. If that is the case though, it begs the question whether he's injury prone and might be battling these types of issues his whole career. One way or another his stock is likely sliding.

[hands11]

I have heard rumors that Thomas Robinson is staying in school. This could be a disaster if all these top players remain in college.

That would be a completely irrational move for him. His stock will never get higher. He is already facing concerns that he is merely a man amongst boys.

Timely post because this is what I was just thinking.

One of the reason I worry about some of these top 5 ish picks is exactly for that reason. Players who come out because there draft stock may lower. Or they come out early because there family was poor. Well there family was poor for all those year and they made it this far. What is another year. I know there is the injury thing but how often does that happen to the point the player can't play? How often has it happened that a top pick didnt come out and then they got injured and still didnt make it to the NBA ? Look at Kyrie. He was injured and he still went #1. Unless they are a senior, they can always put in another year in college and get drafted high anyway.

If they are really that good, they should remain high. In that regards, I give Barnes a lot of credit. As much as I have not been on board with him, it shows maturity and confidence to walk away from last years draft and remain a top pick in the following draft. The kid has his priorities and he stuck to them.

If any of these players is really as good as expected then they should be that good next year and the year after. And they will get paid more in their second contract because of that then the extra few million they will get coming out one year early.

I think that is why often you find better value around 6-20 if you have a decent draft class and you know how to pick them. And those players seem more hungry and less under the microscope. Less entitled. Specially if they go to a bad team.

[Severn Hoos]

So I'll blatantly steal from Dat and offer a truncated list of the top prospects in Tier format, with my own tweaks to the Tier definitions:

Tier 1: Multiple 1st/2nd Team All-NBA. i.e., Top 10 in the league overall, and not just as a flash-in-the-pan.
Tier 2: Multiple All-Star. Since there are 24 All-Star slots each year (though sometimes diluted by fan voting and injury replacements), this is roughly a top-25 player, or top-5 at his position. Again, multiple times, not a one-timer (sorry L-Boogie, but I'm looking your way right now)
Tier 3: Top 10-15 at his position. This puts him in the top half of starters, potential major contributor to a championship team. Top 50-75 players in the league at any point in time.
Tier 4: Solid starter. Maybe a 4th starter for a championship-level squad.
Tier 5: Fringe starter/solid bench guy. Rotation player.
Tier 6: 8th-10th man
Tier 7: Replacement-level player or below.

For reference, I would rate the current Wizards as follows, accounting for potential/projected level:

Tier 1: None
Tier 2: Wall
Tier 3: None (though McGee could be here if he plays smarter)
Tier 4: McGee
Tier 5: Turiaf, Booker, Singleton, Blatche, Young, Crawford
Tier 6: Vesely, Evans, Mason, Lewis
Tier 7: Seraphin, Mack

Sorry, but I don't see Wall as the absolute best in the game, even in his best-case scenario. I think Vesely could move up over time, but not confident enough to slot him higher. Actually think Blatche should & could be higher, but the knucklehead factor knocks him down. And of course, this exercise goes to show just how bare the cupboard is. We so need to win that Lottery...

That said, here is my Tiered ranking of some selected prospects:

Tier 1
Anthony Davis

Tier 2
None

Tier 3
Thomas Robinson
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
Harrison Barnes
Jared Sullinger
Andre Drummond*
Bradley Beal

Tier 4
Tyler Zeller
Jeremy Lamb*
John Henson
Perry Jones*
Terrence Jones

Tier 5
Damian Lillard
Fab Melo
Jae Crowder
Jeffery Taylor

Tier 6
Arnett Moultrie
Doron Lamb
Marcus Denmon
John Jenkins
Mike Scott

The guys with the * should be higher than they are, but intangibles drag them down, IMO. The UConn meltdown this year doesn't speak well for either Lamb or Drummond, and PJ3 is too passive to be a differencemaker. All 3 could change in the future, but this is where I would put them for now.

My takeaways are:

1) This may be the "easiest" #1 pick to make since Duncan. Not that Davis is the best overall prospect since Duncan, but that the gap between him and #2 is huge. Oden had Durant, LeBron had Melo, Bosh, and Wade (I'm choosing to forget Darko), Howard had Okafor (don't laugh - there were some apprehensions about Howard as a HS player, and Okafor had a sterling college resume - it wasn't as obvious then as it is now in hindsight.) Gotta get #1.

2) If it's not Davis, we really need one of the Tier 3 guys. (Although if it's Drummond, I would much prefer to trade the pick.) Right now, we'd be safe to get one if they all come out. If they start to announce they're going back to school, it's anxiety time.

3) If we get one of those guys, we should be realistic about what we're getting. I will admit I don't see in MKG what so many others do, so I am deferential to the consensus on him, and he could become a regular all-star (Tier 2). I wouldn't expect that of anyone else in the draft, including TRob. What we'd likely be getting is a solid starter, top half at his position. Instead of bemoaning that we didn't get an All-Star (or reaching to try and create one, like PJ3), better to add a building block and look for that elite player to pair with Wall from somewhere else.

Is it May yet?

[Dat2U]

Wow, excellent post Sev! Good stuff! Not much to quibble with there.

[Higga]

I think Wall is tier 1 based on his potential. I think MKG and Robinson are tier 2. But other then that, I agree.

[go'stags]

My only quibble, and it is rather nerdy, is that you said tier 2 is top 5 at their position, while tier 3 is 10-15. I would say no biggie, except I have Robinson and MKG in that 6-10 range at their position. I agree with you in regard to MKG. I too think he is overrated, but I am also afraid of saying that because apparently the guy has an incredible will to win and get better, and I don't like to bet against those guys.

I would probably move Doron Lamb into solid starter range, but that is certainly debatable.

I also have Wall in tier 1, but again, I can see the argument against it. Good post.

[Illuminaire]

I think putting Wall at T2 is fair. I'd peg him at high T2, and I do think he has the potential to break the T1 barrier. It all comes down to how much work he's willing to put into his shooting.

[DCZards]

Sev, Austin Rivers is not in the top 6 tiers? I know others are not as high on him, but I'd put him in Tier 3...4 at worst.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

What players do you do not want the wizards to get in this year draft?

Harrison Barnes, Perry Jones III, Andre Drummond, Terrence Jones, Austin Rivers, Jared Sullinger if it is any lower than #6 overall. I don't want Mason Plumlee. I am starting to back off of Jeremy Lamb.

I don't want any players with a questionable motor, or who are overrated relative to where they are projected to go in this draft. I don't want soft players, injury prone players, or players who lack the ability to play assertively at both ends of the court.

Do you think Sullinger and Rivers match your second paragraph?

I worry about Sullinger's injuries. I don't think he's going to be great in the NBA, but he will be good. Probably a solid starter, but I'm not loving his game.

Rivers is a very overrated player IMO. He travels a lot and gets away with it. His defense is not good. He does have the ability to slash, hit big shots, and dominate games offensively in short bursts. I don't think he's anything that special if not for his father's name. Then again, he's just a freshman.

Ruzious, I can't put my finger on it, but I'm not drinking the Austin Rivers koolaid. I think his defense and my not buying the hype are my top quibbles with Rivers.

[doclinkin]

Unlike issue DeMarcus Cousins, I'm a little leery of Royce White of ISU. White's anxiety disorder sounds to me like it is more rapid cycling and less treatable.

Actually anxiety disorders often respond well to medication and counseling. And once that load is lifted then there's a ton of pent up energy that can suddenly be channeled. You know me, I'm always used to looking at bargains rated lower than their ultimate value. Watch highlights and you'll see this somewhat doughy kid, a little out of shape who jumps up then keeps rising to meet the ball. Fundamentally sound, smart player, not quite living up to his talent in part because I think right now he's afraid he'll die if he works too hard. A little Prozac and that ten ton weight lifts off his back.

Check highlights is all I'm saying, kid caught my eye [one representative highlights link here] and I was wondering 'Why the hell has no one mentioned this kids name'-- then I read why. Okay, no projects, no mentally ill players, but I love his talent. Okay clothes theft incident suggests maybe he's a knucklehead, but in interviews he came off as a nice kid, I dunno.

I just saw him register on my viewscreen and said look: if you carve off a little of that baby fat and reveal all that muscle underneath, damn, kid will be a phenomenon.

Not my usual line of thinking, but there you go.

[Ruzious]

Harrison Barnes, Perry Jones III, Andre Drummond, Terrence Jones, Austin Rivers, Jared Sullinger if it is any lower than #6 overall. I don't want Mason Plumlee. I am starting to back off of Jeremy Lamb.

I don't want any players with a questionable motor, or who are overrated relative to where they are projected to go in this draft. I don't want soft players, injury prone players, or players who lack the ability to play assertively at both ends of the court.

Do you think Sullinger and Rivers match your second paragraph?

I worry about Sullinger's injuries. I don't think he's going to be great in the NBA, but he will be good. Probably a solid starter, but I'm not loving his game.

Rivers is a very overrated player IMO. He travels a lot and gets away with it. His defense is not good. He does have the ability to slash, hit big shots, and dominate games offensively in short bursts. I don't think he's anything that special if not for his father's name. Then again, he's just a freshman.

Ruzious, I can't put my finger on it, but I'm not drinking the Austin Rivers koolaid. I think his defense and my not buying the hype are my top quibbles with Rivers.

Rivers definitely makes too many to's at this stage of his career and perhaps puts too much of the burden on his shoulders - believing he can beat his man in every situation - he has too much self-confidence perhaps. But ultimately it's his competitiveness - along with just enough talent - that I think will make him a star. Otherwise, he becomes a Juan Dixon/Jordan Crawford type who doesn't have the NBA talent to back up the self-confidence. He has that talent that Dixon didn't have to climb over that group into stardom.

I agree on Sullinger to an extent. I suspect his back problems have been significant - He's certainly not played the last couple of months with the energy and enthusiasm he's showed in the past

[theboomking]

Wall is pretty clearly a tier 1 player. I think people here have a distorted historical perspective for what to expect from an elite PG in their 2nd year.

Wall is the longest, tallest, and probably most athletic high level PG in the league. On a super crappy Wizards team last year, Wall posted the most assists by any rookie in the last 15 to 20 years. As a sophomore, Wall currently has a better PER than Rose or Westbrook did as second year players.

Wall has GOAT potential. Things will look a lot different around here once we add some decent players and we start winning.

[truwizfan4evr]

Wall is pretty clearly a tier 1 player. I think people here have a distorted historical perspective for what to expect from an elite PG in their 2nd year.

Wall is the longest, tallest, and probably most athletic high level PG in the league. On a super crappy Wizards team last year, Wall posted the most assists by any rookie in the last 15 to 20 years. As a sophomore, Wall currently has a better PER than Rose or Westbrook did as second year players.

Wall has GOAT potential. Things will look a lot different around here once we add some decent players and we start winning.

Soon as we get rid of ernie. Erine will look like a genius if we win lottery picking Anthony Davis. That will convince Ted to keep him.

[nate33]

I think putting Wall at T2 is fair. I'd peg him at high T2, and I do think he has the potential to break the T1 barrier. It all comes down to how much work he's willing to put into his shooting.

Ignore his slump for the first 13 games of the season, and Wall is averaging 19 points, 8 assists, 5 boards and 4 turnovers with a TS% of .556. That at the age of 21 while playing alongside no other credible offensive threat and without shooters to spread the floor at the SF, PF or C positions.

The great Deron Williams, in a similar situation in New Jersey, is posting 22, 8 and 4 with a TS% of .545. And he's a 27-year old, 7-year vet. Many consider Deron Williams a top 10 player. Wall is 3 points a game away from posting the same numbers.

[DCZards]

Rivers definitely makes too many to's at this stage of his career and perhaps puts too much of the burden on his shoulders - believing he can beat his man in every situation - he has too much self-confidence perhaps. But ultimately it's his competitiveness - along with just enough talent - that I think will make him a star. Otherwise, he becomes a Juan Dixon/Jordan Crawford type who doesn't have the NBA talent to back up the self-confidence. He has that talent that Dixon didn't have to climb over that group into stardom.

That pretty much sums up my opinion of Rivers as well. When I watch Rivers play I see a freshman (with high expecations for himself) essentially playing like a freshman. So, yes, you get the TOs, forced shots, impatience, etc. But I also see an ultra-competitive kid with good size, decent and developing skills, and a pro pedigree. IMO, Rivers is easily a top 15 draft pick, maybe even top 10.

[Mmat11]

Is anyone else slightly concerned that Harrison Barnes' college stats are not that impressive enough to warrant a high selection in the draft? He is in his 2nd year...his stats do not compare favorably to NBA players he has been compared to. Deng put up better stats in his first and only year at Duke than Barnes is doing right now.

Heck, even Nick Young's second season in college is eerily similar to Barnes'.

Barnes - 17.4 PTS, .458 FG%, .396 3PT%, 5.1 REB, 1.0 AST, 1.1 STL

Young - 17.3 PTS, .467 FG%, .333 3PT%, 6.6 REB, 1.6 AST, 1.0 STL

For more perspective, I have seen Barnes compared to Luol Deng as an NBA player. Makes sense condsidering they play the same position and have similar body types. But look at what Deng put up at Duke his only year there.

Deng - 15.1 PTS, .475 FG%, .360 3PT%, 6.9 REB, 1.8 AST, 1.3 STL (even throw in 1.8 BLK for good measure)

Those are more impressive than what Barnes is doing in his 2nd year.

For kicks, look at what Durant did his first year. Who else does Barnes compare to as a prospect? Seems he got out outperformed by everyone he is compared to in their relative college playing days.

I may be a bit paranoid, but it is slightly disconcerting to see that Nick Young had better rebounding and assist numbers than someone we may spend a top 5 draft pick on. Who is to say that Barnes will not just be another jump shooter like Young with no other significant contributions in any other area?

[Illuminaire]

I think putting Wall at T2 is fair. I'd peg him at high T2, and I do think he has the potential to break the T1 barrier. It all comes down to how much work he's willing to put into his shooting.

Ignore his slump for the first 13 games of the season, and Wall is averaging 19 points, 8 assists, 5 boards and 4 turnovers with a TS% of .556. That at the age of 21 while playing alongside no other credible offensive threat and without shooters to spread the floor at the SF, PF or C positions.

The great Deron Williams, in a similar situation in New Jersey, is posting 22, 8 and 4 with a TS% of .545. And he's a 27-year old, 7-year vet. Many consider Deron Williams a top 10 player. Wall is 3 points a game away from posting the same numbers.

I'm going by Severn's definition of T1 = top 10 player. That means top-3 PG at worst. I don't think Wall is better than Rose, Paul, and Williams quite yet.

I do think he can get there, and just developing a passable three point shot would do it.